2015 Tony Predictions: Best Play and Musical

It all comes down to this. On Sunday, the American Theatre Wing will crown the latest crop of Tony Award winners, representing the best and brightest of the Broadway theatre season. As the industry's highest honor, the Tonys prompt huge amounts of speculation every season, as winning can provide the boost needed to send an actor's career to the next level or ensure a struggling production runs long enough to turn a profit. 

There are only two categories remaining in my annual Tony predictions, and they are the two biggest: Best Play and Best Musical. More than any other award, a win in one of these categories can mark the turning point where an obscure property becomes a long-running, oft produced hit. It automatically generates more interest in the ticket buying public, and specifically for musicals can be the different between turning a profit and closing at a loss. (For a case in point, last year's well reviewed A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder struggled at the box office until winning the Best Musical prize, and has since recouped its investment.) So which new play and musical will have the honor of being selected as Broadway's best? Find out below.

Warning: Occasional snark and major speculation to follow.

Best Play

Alex Sharp in one of the many visually stunning scenes from The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time.

Nominees: The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time; Disgraced; Hand to God; Wolf Hall Parts I & II

What does it say about the Tony Awards when Pulitzer Prize winner Disgraced is the least competitive Best Play nominee? The implications of that could fill an entire blog post on their own, but what it primarily says is that having your show running during voting season is almost essential to winning. Tony voters don't have the longest memories, and in a competitive season such as this the probing Muslim-American drama just couldn't find the traction to stick with voters past its March 1st closing date.

The other three contenders are all currently running and each has its champions, although there seems to be less fervor surrounding the Royal Shakespeare Company's Wolf Hall double bill. Which leaves London import The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time and scrappy underdog Hand to God to battle it out for the big prize, with the former the clear favorite. Curious Incident, in addition to being the most visually stunning play of the season, is a well written and cleverly nuanced coming of age story about an autistic youth, wonderfully embodied by likely Best Actor winner Alex Sharp. It has also won every Best Play award of the season, an uninterrupted winning streak that is hard to ignore.

Yet you can't completely dismiss Hand to God and its passionate supporters, who would love to see a wholly American play take this award (although given the last 3 Best Play winners were all home grown successes, it's getting harder to argue the Tonys are biased towards British imports). An edgy, unpredictable work, Hand to God ultimately becomes so focused on shocking the audience it loses sight of its thematic core. Playwright Robert Askins clearly has something to say, but you get the impression he hasn't quite figured out how to say it, whereas Curious Incident knows exactly what it wants to communicate and does so beautifully. While I won't entirely rule out a Hand to God upset, I think Curious Incident both deserves and will win this award for combining a beautiful script about an important subject with a highly inventive, top tier production.

Will & Should Win: The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

Best Musical

The three different incarnations of Alison Bechdel, the lesbian cartoonist whose graphic memoir inspired the boundary pushing chamber musical Fun Home.

Nominees: An American in Paris; Fun Home; Something Rotten!; The Visit

Of the four Best Musical nominees, I probably got the most enjoyment out of watching the frankly insane The Visit unapologetically tell its story of love, greed and revenge. But as fascinating as Kander and Ebb's final show is, it definitely has the smallest chance of winning here, scoring only half as many nominations as any of its competitors. A couple months ago, word on the street was that Something Rotten! would be the musical to beat this season, but its disappointing showing at the other industry awards makes it look less competitive than it once did. I suspect the show is a little too derivative of past Tony winners Spamalot and The Producers to really impress the voters, but given its recent million dollar weeks I think the show will run regardless of what happens Sunday night.

This race will ultimately come down to An American in Paris versus Fun Home, and it remains almost too close to call. Fun Home is the more prestigious of the two shows, both better constructed and better realized. Yet something about the show left me cold, and even though I appreciated the piece's ambition and the skill of all involved, I wasn't moved by it the way I expected to be. There is also the question of whether the road producers are willing to vote for a dark, challenging musical about a lesbian cartoonist and her closeted father when they could vote for a crowd pleasing dance show packed with familiar Gershwin tunes that will surely pack their regional houses. The other industry awards don't provide much indication as to which way voters are leaning, as Fun Home's Off-Broadway run occurred last season and therefore the two shows have not been in direct competition (Fun Home dominated last year, while American in Paris has been riding high this year).

Until a couple of days ago, I would have predicted a victory for An American in Paris. But as I write this, I really think the voters will do the right thing and vote Fun Home the Best Musical of 2015. It is certainly better written, and arguably better performed (although the American in Paris cast is quite talented). And recent Tony voting patterns show that many of the supposed obstacles to a Fun Home victory aren't really issues at all. Kinky Boots' win and subsequent success across the country proves that road voters and audiences aren't inherently terrified of "gay" shows, although the glitzy drag musical is a much more sanitized and widely appealing production. And if the road producers vote strictly for the most commercial production, last year would have seen Beautiful or Aladdin triumph over Gentleman's Guide. So at the last minute, I am changing my official prediction from American in Paris to Fun Home, and hoping that the Tony voters don't disappoint me.

Will & Should Win: Fun Home
Incredibly Close Second Where Winning Odds Are Concerned: An American in Paris


And there you have it. Those are my official predictions for the 2014-2015 Tony season. Check back on Monday to see my thoughts on this year's winners and the Tony telecast itself, and be sure to check out any of the coverage you may have missed below.

Nominations React
Best Book & Score
Best Direction & Choreography
Best Featured Actor
Best Featured Actress
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Revival

2014 Fall Preview: New Plays

A scene from the London production of The Curious Incident of the Dog in Night-time, one of several new works making the journey across the pond for the Fall season.

This past Monday saw the first preview performance of This Is Our Youth, meaning the Fall 2014 Broadway season is officially upon us. I've already taken a look at the many star-driven revivals coming to the Great White Way in the next few months; thankfully, unlike last fall's dismal showing of new plays (critical and commercial flops The Snow Geese and A Time to Kill), this fall has a few promising new works to balance out all those revivals. Hell, at least one of these plays is virtually guaranteed to be a sell-out hit, and given strong productions a couple of the others could also be at least critical if not necessarily commercial hits. So what's on deck for the fall? Find out below.

The Country House
Previews begin 9/9; Opening Night 10/2

One thing Manhattan Theatre Club can always be counted on for is attracting name talent to new works. I personally feel MTC's new plays trend a little too upper class and cerebral for their own good, but every once and a while the famed not-for-profit produces a daringly original and energetic piece like Venus in Fur. Unfortunately, The Country House sounds like par for the course at MTC (re: well-done but a little boring). Blythe Danner stars in this Donald Margulies play about a group of established and aspiring artists in a summer home in the Berkshires, with the explicit promise of "romantic outbursts" and "passionate soul-searching" along with an implicit promise of weighty discussions about art and culture. I actually enjoyed MTC's production of Margulies' Time Stands Still several seasons back, but this new work just sounds ponderous. I'm predicting respectable reviews and a respectable run, although it would take something unexpected for this play to take off and become a true hit.

The Curious Incident of the Dog in Night-time
Previews begin 9/10; Opening Night 10/5

The Curious Incident of the Dog in Night-time is the latest in a long, mostly distinguished line of new works originating in the West End. A hit oversees, the play centers on an incredibly intelligent but socially awkward teenage boy who is accused of killing his neighbor's dog, and his attempts to uncover the real killer. Coming to Broadway from London's prestigious National Theatre, this Olivier-winning play sounds a good deal more interesting and inventive than a lot of our home grown theatre, probably because England's government subsidized arts scene is a little more embracing of theatricality and invention (see War Horse). That said, some of these West End transfers lose something in the journey across the Atlantic, failing to live up to the hype generated by their reputations (see War Horse again). The reviews will probably dictate how well this does. If the critics embrace it, I expect it to settle in for a healthy run and potential Tony Awards; if they are lukewarm, it will probably close with relatively little fanfare. I am certainly curious, and just glad to see a high-minded drama that isn't solely concerned with the problems of upper class white people.

Disgraced
Previews begin 9/27; Opening Night 10/23

Like far too many plays, Disgraced concerns a group of upper class New Yorkers. But in this case, two of them are Muslim-American, and the play comes to Broadway having already won the 2013 Pulitzer Prize for Drama. Which is certainly enough to make anyone sit up and take notice, and of all the new plays scheduled for fall this is the one I am most interested in seeing. A contemporary take on a contemporary subject (the place of practicing Muslims in post 9/11 America), Disgraced sounds fresh and provocative, unlike the staid dramas that have taken over Broadway in the past few years. Barring some kind of creative implosion in the production, I expect this to be one of the more buzzed about works of the fall, and a clear early contender for Tony consideration come spring.

The River
Previews begin 10/31; Opening Night 11/16

The producers of Jez Butterworth's The River have scored the biggest casting coup of the fall: they somehow convinced box office magnet Hugh Jackman to star in this new play by a decidedly off-beat English playwright. Add in the fact that the Circle in the Square is one of Broadway's smallest houses and you have what is sure to be one of the hottest tickets in town. While The River's box office success is virtually assured - audiences have repeatedly proven they will turn up to see Jackman in just about anything - artistically the play is another story. I personally was underwhelmed by Butterworth's 2011 Tony-nominee Jerusalem (without the incomparable Mark Rylance that would have been a wasted 3 hours in the theatre), but many critics enjoyed the show and may again be charmed by Butterworth's work. I personally have no interest to see this play, which I suspect will be remembered much more as a financial success than an artistic one.

Constellations
Previews begin 12/16; Opening Night 1/13

Not much is known about this Manhattan Theatre Club production, other than the fact it will mark Oscar-nominee Jake Gyllenhaal's long-awaited Broadway debut. Something about the play must have enticed the notoriously choosey Gyllenhaal to Broadway, and it certainly wasn't MTC's not-for-profit pay scale. The official plot description of this West End transfer sounds heady - it is described as a "mind-bending" work that "defies the boundaries of the world we think we know" on MTC's website - which means it could either be an adventurous, inventive new work or a pretentious quagmire too caught up in its own premise to actually work. And while Gyllenhaal isn't a particular draw for me, he likely will be to a lot of other people, so hopefully this play turns out well.


And there you have the five new plays scheduled to open on Broadway in the next few months.  Check back soon for the final instalment of my Fall Preview series, which will focus on the musicals coming to Broadway between now and Christmas.  In the meantime, don't forget to catch up with part 1 of the series:

2014 Fall Preview: Play Revivals