2015 Tony Predictions: Book and Score

Now that the dust from the nominations announcement has settled and we know exactly who will be competing for this year's Tony Awards, it's time to play the industry's favorite game: Guess the Winners. You can't get more than two theatre people in the same room at this time of year without at least some discussion of who's going to win Broadway's highest honor, and Broadway Etc is here to help cut through the noise and give you one educated theatregoer's best predictions.

The secret to correctly predicting Tony winners is the ability to distinguish between personal feelings of who should win and focus on who has the momentum and buzz to actually win, which are by no means the same thing. I've previously discussed what I consider some of the most egregious Tony oversights, and there's bound to be at least one surprise winner come June 7th, especially with so many deserving nominees in several extremely close races. As always, I will start with predicting the behind the scenes awards like writing and direction before seguing into the more high profile performance categories and eventually the closely watched production races. And should I sense that the likely winner doesn't align with my preferred choice, I will be sure to point that out.

Warning: Occasional snark and plenty of speculation to follow.

Best Book of a Musical

Sydney Lucas, Beth Malone, and Emily Skeggs (all Tony nominees this season) in Fun Home.

Nominees: Craig Lucas, An American in Paris; Lisa Kron, Fun Home; Karey Kirkpatrick and John O'Farrell, Something Rotten!; Terrance McNally, The Visit

The interesting thing about the new musical races is they distinguish between a show's writing and the actual production, whereas the Best Play award doubles as both a production and writing honor. Tony voters have often used this distinction as a way to recognize more artistically daring shows while still naming a crowd pleaser Best Musical (see: Ragtime vs. The Lion King, Urinetown vs. Thoroughly Modern Millie). There has been much debate over whether the critically acclaimed Fun Home can overcome the perceived handicap of its subject matter (weighty issues like homosexuality and suicide) to become a popular hit, which at this point is likely the universally praised show's biggest obstacle on the road to Tony glory.

Which is where the Best Book award comes in, as it is very difficult to argue there is better writing among this year's musicals than Lisa Kron's nuanced take on a young woman coming to terms with her own identity. There are certainly charms to Karey Kirkpatrick and John O'Farrell's work on Something Rotten!, but the show ultimately succumbs to structural issues in the second act that keep it from being a serious awards contender. The surreal musical The Visit has failed to gain much momentum despite the theatrical heavyweights behind it, and while Craig Lucas has an outside chance of winning for his work on the increasingly popular An American in Paris I think voters will ultimately choose to honor Kron. (The fact that Kron's work helped make Fun Home a finalist for the 2014 Pulitzer Prize certainly doesn't hurt her chances).

Will & Should Win: Lisa Kron, Fun Home

Best Original Score

Young Alison experiences a rare moment of bonding with her elusive father in Fun Home, one of the most nominated shows of the season.

Nominees: Jeanine Tesori and Lisa Kron, Fun Home; Sting, The Last Ship; Wayne Kirkpatrick and Karey Kirkpatrick, Something Rotten!; John Kander and Fred Ebb, The Visit

It is a rare artist who reaches Jeanine Tesori's level of industry notoriety without receiving a Tony Award. There is likely a feeling among voters that she is overdue for Broadway's highest honor, and it looks like this may be the year the adventurous, boundary pushing composer finally takes home the big prize. Her expertly written Fun Home score covers an enormous range of emotions and musical styles in the course of the show's single act, without ever feeling disjointed or pieced together. While the universally admired Kander and Ebb have written a very good score for their final collaboration The Visit, it seems unlikely to result in another career Tony Award for the esteemed pair. And while there's no denying the cleverness of the Kirkpatrick brothers' lyrics for the irreverent Something Rotten!, with the exception of the extremely catchy opening number not many of the songs in that score really stick with you past the final curtain. In fact, I'd argue Tesori's biggest competition comes from Grammy-winning Broadway newcomer Sting, whose score for The Last Ship is a similarly nuanced and ethereal piece of composing. But Tesori's score has more breadth, and her show a more important milestone in the development of the musical artform, which means she and lyricist Lisa Kron will likely be the ones making the trip to the podium on Tony Sunday

Will & Should Win: Jeanine Tesori and Lisa Kron, Fun Home


That's all for today, but stay tuned for many more Tony predictions in the weeks to come. Next up, I discuss the nominees for Best Direction and Choreography, and in the meantime you can catch up on my previous coverage of this year's show below.

2015 Tony Nominee React

Not Quite Seaworthy, But Some Beautiful Craftsmanship

Review: The Last Ship

Sting (center) joins the cast of his own musical The Last Ship for the show's final weeks.

Going into the fall of 2014, The Last Ship seemed poised to be one of the big shows of the upcoming Broadway season. The only new musical to open between the months of September and December, the show promised a score by Grammy winner and recent Kennedy Center Honoree Sting, a book by Tony winners John Logan and Brian Yorkey, and direction by the great Joe Mantello (also a Tony winner). But despite a high profile creative team and a complete lack of competition, the show has struggled at the box office and will play its final performance on January 24th. You can blame the lack of name stars or an audience distaste for serious musicals, but at the end of the day The Last Ship's box office woes probably stem from the fact that despite being lovingly crafted and at times starkly beautiful, the show just doesn't have a particularly engaging story to tell.

Set in a small seaside village in northern England, The Last Ship opens with young Gideon Fletcher leaving town rather than follow in his father's footsteps as a shipbuilder. Gideon promises his tearful girlfriend Meg Dawson he'll come back for her, once he's seen the world and sown his wild oats. Cut to 15 years later, when a now grown Gideon finally returns home to attend his father's funeral. What he finds is a town on the verge of collapse, as the shipyard which employs most of the local men has been purchased and will soon close. While the men rally together to build one last ship, Gideon does his best to pick up the pieces of his relationship with Meg, who now has a son and is set to marry another man.

The above setup contains all the elements needed for a dramatic story, but bookwriters John Logan and Brian Yorkey can't seem to decide where the show's primary focus should be. In trying to split time equally between the shipyard drama and the Gideon/Meg romance, both storylines feel underserviced and therefore lack the emotional punch they could have. Both plots also suffer from a lack of dramatic tension, with their eventual outcomes heavily foreshadowed by both the writing and simple logic. The romance is especially problematic, as the show fails to provide any compelling reason for Meg to take Gideon back after he broke her heart. Gideon makes for an exceedingly selfish protagonist; he admits to having spent the past 15 years with a variety of women, but cannot comprehend why Meg isn't waiting with open arms when he finally gets around to returning. We never see them as a happy couple, and as Meg's overriding reaction to Gideon's return is a completely understandable "screw you," it's difficult to root for their reunion.

Sting's folk-influenced score does a much better job than the book scenes of conveying believable emotional complexity, and makes for a very respectable Broadway songwriting debut. Like much of his more recent recording output, the subtle intricacies of Sting's score appear underwhelming on first listen, but as the evening goes on the smartly used reprises and melodic motifs reveal hidden nuances and previously unnoticed pleasures. Sting does a better job than most recording artists of bending his personal style to the needs of dramatic storytelling, although he doesn't entirely avoid the temptation to have the story serve the music instead of the other way around. His score reaches its zenith giving voice to the working class shipwrights in the group numbers, making full use of the cast's lush voices with layered harmonies and inventive call and response. The title song is especially haunting, and both the score and Rob Mathes' orchestrations do an excellent job of evoking the feel of a small seaside town.

As per usual, Joe Mantello's focused direction coaxes fine performances out of his entire cast. Michael Esper almost manages to make the often insufferable Gideon a likeable protagonist, even with a script that rarely allows him the opportunity to show his much discussed love for Meg. Rachel Tucker is excellent as the object of Gideon's affection, anchoring the love triangle with a believable emotional complexity. The golden-voiced Aaron Lazar does what he can with the utterly thankless role of Meg's new boyfriend Arthur, and the nimble Collin Kelly-Sordelet is continually appealing as Meg's son, Tom. Fred Applegate's immensely enjoyable turn as the town priest is the most accomplished and engaging performance in the show, and Sting himself - taking over for original cast member Jimmy Nail - does quite well in the role of shipyard captain Jackie White. (Sidenote: Sting's casting is one of the smartest uses of a celebrity replacement in several seasons, showcasing the rock star enough that fans will get their money's worth without actually involving him in the show's emotional heavy lifting.)

The show's production design is purposefully dark and industrial, perfectly conveying the decline and disrepair of the setting. There is a fading beauty in David Zinn's sets and costumes which is greatly enhanced by Christopher Akerlind's dramatic lighting. Mantello thoroughly utilizes all of this in his dynamic staging, and although Steven Hoggett continues to rely on the same tricks that netted him a Tony nomination for Once, his choreography's angular vocabulary is mostly appropriate here. When all of these elements work together, like they do in the production's stunning final tableau, it is almost magical.

The Last Ship is a noble effort, one of the rare new musicals not based on any pre-existing source material. The show doesn't always live up to its potential, but there is plenty to appreciate between Sting's lush score, the fine performances of the cast, and the starkly beautiful images created by Joe Mantello and his production team. Those with any interest should definitely head over to the Neil Simon Theatre before the show closes next weekend, as there are far worse ways one can spend a chilly winter evening.

2014 Fall Preview: The Musicals

Erin Davie and Emily Padgett are set to reprise their roles as conjoined twins Violet and Daisy Hilton in the Broadway transfer of the acclaimed Kennedy Center production of the cult musical Side Show.

Although I am vehemently opposed to our nation's obsession with pumpkin everything and the attendant rush to have it be fall RIGHT NOW, there's no denying that the summer is coming to a close. The coming months will see a bevy of new Broadway productions begin performances, and since I've already examined the fall's crop of plays it's time to turn our attention to the type of theatre that is most synonymous with the Great White Way: the Broadway musical. While there aren't nearly as many musicals as plays premiering in the coming months, the industry seems to have collectively decided on a quality-over-quantity approach. (Almost) Every single musical, new or revived, sounds like an enticing evening at the theatre, and I am legitimately excited for them. So without further ado, here are the upcoming shows that will hopefully have us singing and dancing in the aisle this coming fall.

On the Town
Previews begin 9/20; Opening Night 10/16

While I'm not convinced the current Broadway economy can really support a big budget, old school song-and-dance fest like On the Town, I'm sure glad some producers have decided to give it a try. The Bernstein-Comden-Green musical perfectly fits my criteria for shows that merit a full scale revival (it's a well-liked musical that was a huge hit during its original run that isn't produced very often anymore), and it will be nice to see another dance musical on the Great White Way now that Newsies has ceased carrying the banner. I'm concerned On the Town has booked Spider-Man's old theatre (the freshly renamed Lyric), because I don't think the musical has the kind of drawing power to consistently sell a house that size, but hopefully the producers keep running costs low so it won't need to be a sell-out hit to survive.

The Last Ship
Previews begin 9/30; Opening Night 10/26

This is the one musical I am not interested in seeing, thanks mostly to the snooze-inducing preview performance on this year's Tony telecast. Multiple Grammy-winner Sting tries his hand at writing showtunes for this semi-autobiographical show about a shipbuilding town in England struggling to stave off financial ruin. As Bono and the Edge proved with their disastrous Spider-Man: Turn Off the Dark, success and acclaim in the recording industry doesn't always translate to the stage, and quite honestly the entire affair sounds dull and uninteresting. In fairness, The Last Ship received encouraging (but by no means stellar) reviews during its out of town tryout, but it's going to need really strong buzz to convince me I want to sit through 2 1/2 hours of the same type of low-key material showcased on the Tonys.

Side Show
Previews begin 10/28; Opening Night 11/17

It took longer than I initially expected, but the well-reviewed Kennedy Center production of this 1997 cult-musical is officially coming to Broadway, and I couldn't be more excited. While the original production of Side Show only ran for a couple of months, the musical's reputation has only grown since its premature closing thanks to an intriguing premise - it tells the story of real-life conjoined twins Daisy and Violet Hilton - and a fantastic score. The show has been retooled, rethought, and rewritten by original authors Henry Krieger and Bill Russell along with the revival's director, Bill Condon (an Oscar winner who is also responsible for the fantastic film version of Krieger's Dreamgirls). I'm concerned about the show's financial prospects - dark musical dramas are a hard sell these days - but I will certainly be in attendance, and I hope this new production is the beginning of a long and prosperous second life for the ambitious property.

Honeymoon in Vegas
Previews begin 11/18; Opening Night 1/15/15

While I couldn't begin to tell you why a show The New York Times' Ben Brantley practically demanded transfer to Broadway has a two month preview period, the important thing is Honeymoon in Vegas is coming to bless us with another glorious Jason Robert Brown score. While this is the first full-fledged comedy the three-time Tony-winner has written, his previous works are rife with inventive lyrics and fun, uptempo melodies in songs like The Last 5 Year's "Summer in Ohio" or Songs for a New World's "Surabaya-Santa." It also marks the Broadway return of rising star Rob McClure, who will hopefully find a vehicle more worthy of his talents than the misguided Chaplin a few years back. If the show is as good as early buzz suggests, Honeymoon may give Brown his first commercial success, something that should help ease the sting of the criminally chilly reception his brilliant Bridges of Madison County received earlier this year. (Sidenote: both the show and leading lady Kelli O'Hara were *robbed* of Tony Awards this year!)


And there you have it! Those are all 16 productions scheduled to premiere on Broadway this fall. Which shows are you most excited about? Don't be afraid to let me know in the comments!

And in case you missed it, here are the previous two parts of my Fall Preview:

2014 Fall Preview: Play Revivals
2014 Fall Preview: New Plays

A Reasoned Explanation of Why Some Shows Just Need to Close Already

Sorry all you ABBA fans, but it's time for these "dancing queens" to retire.

Last season turned out to be a pretty prolific season for new musicals, with 12 brand new tuners officially debuting on the Great White Way.  But looking ahead at the 2014-2015 season, the situation is a lot less cheery.  Holler If Ya Hear Me already came and went, and looking at the currently announced shows for the next season, there are a whopping 3 new musicals scheduled to come to Broadway: The Last Ship, Honeymoon in Vegas, and An American in Paris. 

Yes, there are a handful of other musicals which have announced their intentions to come to Broadway next season, but as far as I'm concerned a musical isn't officially happening until it has a specific date and theatre lined up.  Even then, it isn't a done deal (see the very public collapse of Rebecca) but once those qualifications are met it becomes significantly more likely the show will happen.  So while a show like Finding Neverland (currently premiering at ART in Boston) will most likely come to Broadway, and shows like Bull Durham and Allegiance have announced intentions to come to Broadway sooner rather than later, they aren't guaranteed just yet.

Now obviously, any season that only produces 4 new musicals is depressing (especially when one of them has already flopped).  But what's more troubling is what this says about the current state of Broadway.  If you look at the Upcoming Broadway Shows list on Playbill.com, you can see the problem isn't a lack of new works.  After the 3 confirmed shows mentioned above, there are no less than 16 musicals with producers and creative teams attached that have announced Broadway intentions.  I count 9 shows that could reasonably be ready for a Broadway bow by spring 2015, as all 9 have already had world premieres or are scheduled to have them by this winter.  A few of them do have some well-documented behind the scenes troubles (Rebecca chief among them), but the majority of them are waiting on just one thing: an available theatre.

And that is what really bugs me about this upcoming season.  We have too many long-running productions on Broadway right now, many of which have become tired and a few of which weren't particularly good to begin with (for my purposes, long running means anything that premiered before spring 2013).  These productions are exclusively musicals, several of which wore out their welcome long ago, and as far as I'm concerned it would be better for everyone if those shows ended their runs to make room for new blood. 

Whenever someone expresses the sentiment that a show (or shows) need to close, certain segments of the industry are quick to point out that those shows mean jobs.  Now, I won't deny that Chicago and Mamma Mia! have employed a lot of people over the years, but the flip side of that is they have only employed a specific type of person.  If someone is not right for these shows (and many actors aren't), the productions' continued runs are actually preventing that actor from working by taking up theatre space which could be used for a show the performer is perfect for.  Both Mamma Mia! and Chicago long ago became the almost exclusive domain of tourists (or New Yorkers entertaining out of town guests), and there has also been a noticeable decline in quality in both productions.

When did it become the norm for a show to run for 10+ years? (Answer: the 1980s.)  The original production of Oklahoma! was considered an unprecedented smash when it ran for 5 years; in today's climate, a production with the kind of acclaim Oklahoma! received would be considered a mild disappointment if it "only" ran that long (many people were surprised when The Producers shuttered after 6 years).  This is a problem, in that it creates both unrealistic expectations for the vast majority of shows and eats up valuable theatrical real estate as producers try to chase these new standards.

Unless the production is poorly budgeted/horribly mismanaged, it really shouldn't take more than a couple of years for a Broadway musical to turn a profit.  Even a major musical like Kinky Boots, which had a capitalization of $13.5 million, managed to turn a profit in less than a year.  So rather than viewing a show as a disappointment for closing after 3 years, especially a profitable one that won good reviews and industry acclaim, I wish the theatrical community would celebrate a 3 year run as the achievement it is, letting more shows gracefully exit the limelight so new productions can take their place.

A perfect example of this philosophy is what Disney has done with Newsies.  Considering the excitement and strong notices that greeted the Broadway production, no one was particularly surprised when its "strictly limited engagement" became an open-ended run.  What was surprising was when the show, which still pulls in a very respectable weekly gross, announced it was closing at the end of the summer after a 2 year run.  Make no mistake, Disney could run this show longer if they wanted to.  Newsies could easily sustain itself until Christmas, and could probably limp along through next summer if it wanted.  After all, it recouped its capitalization ages ago, so as long as the weekly box office covers operating costs the show isn't hurting anyone financially.  But instead Disney has smartly decided to let Newsies go out while still on top, rather than wearing out its welcome and thereby damaging the show's overall brand.

It is a win for everyone involved.  The show turned a profit and made its producers money.  It has run more than long enough to be seen by everyone who was seriously interested.  From now until the end of time the show can be marketed as "the (Tony-winning) Broadway musical Newsies," with all the attendant prestige that description brings with it.  Without worrying about protecting the Broadway profits, Disney can tour and license the show to their heart's content.  And now the Nederlander Theatre is free to house a different show, increasing the number of new productions for the general public to consume.

Coming back to my original observation, I do believe the number of new musicals for next season will exceed the four announced, potentially by a lot.  There are several Broadway productions I have trouble seeing last through the holidays, and there are no shortage of shows looking for a suitable Broadway home.  As long as all the theatres that open up aren't snatched up by revivals (although I do hope Side Show finds a home sooner rather than later), next season should turn out fine.  But imagine how much more exciting things would be if some of Broadway's longer-running tenants packed up shop and let someone else move in.