2016 Tony Award Predictions: Best Actor

The Tony Awards are less than a week away, so it's time to really ramp up our prediction articles here at Broadway, Etc. The remaining categories are arguably the most prestigious, with the Best Actor/Actress and production categories having the greatest effect on both individual shows and entire careers. Winning a Tony in one of the leading performance categories definitely opens up a host of career opportunities, and can turn a relative unknown into a bankable star capable of opening a big budget production on name recognition alone.

Although etiquette typically dictates "ladies first," we're actually going to start with the Best Actor candidates, as the two Best Actress categories tend to be more eagerly anticipated by the theatrical community. Which takes nothing away from the incredible achievements of this year's nominated men, who have delivered some truly stunning performances over the past 12 months. As always, I will use a combination of personal observation and gut feeling to determine the most likely winner, and if that person doesn't align with who I would personally vote for I will make sure to point it out in my analysis.

Warning: Occasional snark and plenty of speculation to follow.

Best Actor in a Play

Frank Langella in Manhattan Theatre Club's production of The Father

Nominees: Gabriel Bryne, Long Day's Journey Into Night; Jeff Daniels, Blackbird; Frank Langella, The Father; Tim Pigott-Smith, King Charles III; Mark Strong, A View from the Bridge

The further into awards season we get, the more Frank Langella appears to have a lock on this award. The three-time Tony-winner has received virtually every Best Actor award in existence for his universally praised performance as an aging man dealing with the onset of dementia, a feat even more impressive when you consider that many critics weren't exactly enthralled with The Father as a play. 

Looking at the rest of the nominees, I don't really see any viable challenges. Tim Pigott-Smith's acclaimed turn in the title role of King Charles III seems like ages ago, as the show closed before most of the other nominated productions even opened. Jeff Daniels certainly earned his share of critical accolades for bringing a large measure of humanity to a former child molester, but the overriding feeling towards Blackbird seems to be one of respect rather than outright enjoyment. When push comes to shove, most Tony voters go with the show/performance that excites them the most, something that rarely comes from a production they don't feel passionately about. Gabriel Bryne does brilliantly subtle work as patriarch James Tyrone in Long Day's Journey Into Night, but has been largely overshadowed in people's minds by costar Jessica Lange. If anyone is going to give Langella a run for his money, it's Mark Strong for the critically beloved A View from the Bridge, but that show is probably too long gone for Strong to be truly competitive.

Will & Should Win: Frank Langella, The Father

Best Actor in a Musical

Aaron Burr, sir: Leslie Odom, Jr. in Hamilton.

Nominees: Alex Brightman, School of Rock; Danny Burstein, Fiddler on the Roof; Zachary Levi, She Loves Me; Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton; Leslie Odom, Jr., Hamilton

This is actually one of the most competitive, unpredictable races of the night. I feel fairly confident in ruling out first-time nominee Alex Brightman, mostly due to the strength of his competition rather than any fault in the actor's by all accounts fantastic performance. And while I and many others absolutely *adored* Zachary Levi's pitch perfect work in Roundabout's fantastic She Loves Me revival, the TV star turned Tony Award-nominee also feels like an extreme long shot to win.

Many people seem to think being the creative genius behind this season's presumptive Best Musical Hamilton makes Lin-Manuel Miranda likely to win this award, but I actually think it hurts his chances at a Best Actor victory. Tony voters know he will be walking away with several writing awards Sunday night, and therefore will likely opt to spread the wealth around in this category. Also, with all due respect to Miranda, his is a very good performance competing against several extraordinary ones, and if he were to win here it would be a case of hype overriding merit.

I think this race will ultimately boil down to Leslie Odom, Jr.'s fascinating Aaron Burr versus Danny Burstein's transfixing Tevye. Burstein has been a staple of the Broadway community and the Tony Awards for the better part of a decade, with many (myself included) feeling he is long overdue for his first win after five previous nominations. Six proved to be the magic number for Kelli O'Hara, who finally won the Tony for her work in The King and I last year, and I can easily see a similar outcome here (complete with the accompanying standing ovation). Yet Leslie Odom, Jr. is delivering a star making performance in megahit Hamilton, and the momentum behind that show cannot be underestimated. Further helping Odom, Jr.'s case is the fact that Hamilton is much more universally beloved than the latest incarnation of Fiddler, which despite strong critical notices doesn't seem to inspire much passion in anyone describing it.

My gut says that Odom, Jr. just barely wins this award, but my gut also said Kristin Chenoweth would win last year. And if I'm being totally honest, I would probably vote for him too if forced to choose. Hamilton allows Odom, Jr.'s performance to be exciting in a way the somewhat staid Fiddler doesn't allow Burstein's to be, and I think that will ultimately give Odom, Jr. the edge in the night's closest race.

Will & Should Win: Leslie Odom, Jr., Hamilton

Extremely Close Second: Danny Burstein, Fiddler on the Roof

Who are you rooting for in the hotly contested Best Actor in a Musical category? Think any of the play nominees can seriously challenge Frank Langella? Let me know in the comments, and check back throughout the week for the rest of my Tony predictions. And in the meantime, catch up on my previous coverage below:

Nominations React

Best Book and Score

Best Direction and Choreography

Best Featured Actor 

Best Featured Actress

A Broadway "Tradition" Continues

Review: Fiddler on the Roof

Danny Burstein as Tevye in the latest Broadway revival of Fiddler on the Roof.

How does one reinvent a show centered around the concept of tradition? It is the title of the glorious opening number of Fiddler on the Roof, where Jewish milkman Tevye speaking directly to the audience about the virtues of the well-delineated societal rules in his little town of Anatevka. Throughout the show Tevye and his daughters deviate from the old ways with only the purest of intents, and yet it still causes an enormous amount of trouble for the well-meaning clan. Those traditions end up providing the characters comfort in times of great adversity, and the show ultimately seems to argue that while some change is inevitable there's no need to completely ignore the old way of doing things. Oddly enough, it is a lesson director Bartlett Sher attempts to teach while simultaneously ignoring, as the least successful aspects of this generally first rate revival (the show's fifth) are the areas where Sher most obviously breaks from the traditional way of mounting the show.

Sher has made quite the name for himself staging critically heralded revivals of both plays and musicals, having found particular success with the works of Rodgers and Hammerstein. With Fiddler on the Roof, he once again sweeps away the cobwebs from a script some may view as dated and makes it compelling and relevant. Yet unlike his Tony-winning South Pacific or The King and I, Sher's directorial hand is more apparent here, and not always for the better. He hasn't changed a word of the script, but he has awkwardly grafted a wordless modern dress framing device onto the show that doesn't add anything to the preexisting text. The production design is also purposefully deconstructed for reasons that aren't at all apparent, occasionally distracting from rather than adding to the storytelling.

Now none of the above is meant to in any way imply that Sher's direction is bad. It is often outstanding, breathing fresh life into a show many know by heart. Sher has guided his cast to fully lived performances that feel fresh, exciting, and even slightly dangerous. He has a near matchless understanding of pacing, giving each story beat room to breathe while also keeping everything moving along at such a steady clip the show never drags despite its three hour runtime. He has a stellar eye for simple yet powerful stage pictures, and seamlessly switches gears between broad comedy and heartwrenching drama. Sher has never directed a funnier sequence than "Tevye's Dream," and he his storytelling has rarely been as devastating as it is during the show's emotional climax, which makes his few missteps all the more noticeable.

Sher is aided, as always, by an impeccable cast of theatrical greats working at the top of their game. Headlining this Fiddler is five-time Tony-nominee Danny Burstein in the role of Tevye, and the veteran character actor has arguably never been better. While it would be disingenuous to call Burstein's performance understated - among other things, he gets to play more comedy than he's been given in any role since Adolfo in The Drowsey Chaperone - his performance is not as immediately flashy as one might expect from a role written for the famously outsized Zero Mostel. But it is a deeply felt, fully realized portrayal that builds and builds to an emotional sucker punch of a climax, when one of his beloved daughters decides to marry outside the faith. Burstein is alternatively jovial and genuinely imposing as the role demands, and he handles all the areas in between with such effortless aplomb you forget he's acting at all. His voice also perfectly suits the show's famous score, and his exuberant performance of "If I Were a Rich Man" is every bit the showstopper such a gifted performer deserves.

Burstein's performance forms the blueprint that the rest of the cast follows, as many of his fellow actors also initially appear unassuming while laying the groundwork for what are revealed to be deeply affecting performances. Jessica Hecht's wife Golde at first skews very harsh and shrewish (you definitely understand why Tevye would be scared of her), but she leavens her work with enough moments of tenderness that it is genuinely touching when she struggles to answer Tevye's question of "Do You Love Me?" She is also heartbreaking during the final few scenes, as the aftermath of her third daughter's marriage fully hits.

As daughters Tzietel, Hodel, and Chava respectively, Alexandra Silber, Samantha Massell, and Melanie Moore all have their moments, although it takes them a bit longer to click into their roles. Their performance of "Matchmaker, Matchermaker" isn't quite the homerun you'd expect, but to their credit all three act the song so well it makes you hear the well-known lyrics anew.  Massell also does a phenomenal job with Hodel's "Far From the Home I Love," making the song a late-evening highlight. The structure of the show doesn't provide as much for Adam Kantor (Motel), Ben Rappaport (Perchik), and Aaron Young (Fyedka) to do as the daughter's respective spouses, but all three actors make strong impression with the material they do have. And if Alix Korey's Yente the Matchmaker isn't quite the scenery chewer you'd expect, she is nevertheless absolutely hysterical.

Few shows have proven as durable and iconic a part of the musical theatre cannon as Fiddler on the Roof, and Bartlett Sher has staged this latest revival in a way that reminds even the skeptics how Fiddler achieved that status in the first place. Sher also continues to bring out the best in some of the industry's top talent, guiding Burstein to what may well be considered his crowning achievement. The entire production seems to exist primarily to showcase the actor's many talents, and yet he remains so giving and supportive of his fellow performers he never overshadows the story they are all trying to tell. (I try to leave talk of Tony Awards out of reviews, but if Burstein doesn't finally win an acting trophy for this I don't know what more he can possibly do.) And as always, it is refreshing and invigorating to see such a classic approached with such lavish attention to detail, from the gloriously full orchestra to the finely detailed costumes. Some traditions are worth keeping, and if Fiddler continues to be this entertaining and moving I see no problem with continuing to revive the show every ten years.