2018 Tony Predictions: Best Revival

We're only a few short days away from the 2018 Tony Awards, when we'll learn which productions and artists from this past season have won Broadway's highest honor. We've spent plenty of time discussing the later, predicting all the acting races as well as many of the creative team awards, and now it's time to focus on the former. Which four productions will be deemed the best Broadway had to offer this past season? We're starting with the revivals, so read on to find out my thoughts!

Best Revival of a Play

James McArdle and Andrew Garfield in the Broadway revival of Angels in America.

Nominees: Angels in America; The Iceman Cometh; Lobby Hero; Three Tall Women; Travesties

While this category sports uniformly well received productions, I along with everyone else expect this award to go to Angels in America. Tony Kushner's Pulitzer Prize-winning epic is event theatre on a scale rarely seen, filled with the kind of weighty subject matter and big emotional beats that are like catnip to awards voters. In addition to being the most nominated play in Tony history, Angels has won practically every other Best Revival award in existence, so I see no reason why that would change come Sunday night.

Travesties is respected but heady, to the point where multiple reviewers admitted to being confused despite recognizing the craft on display; Tony voters probably feel similarly and will take their votes elsewhere. Lobby Hero marked Second Stage's Broadway debut in their dedicated home and established the Off-Broadway not-for-profit as a Broadway player to watch. I'm sure multiple Tony Awards are in Second Stage's future, but they will have to wait a bit longer to collect them. The Iceman Cometh earned surprisingly strong reviews for a production most industry insiders didn't seem all that interested in, but the tone of reviews is just measured enough that a win seems unlikely. If anything can wrest the crown away from Angels it will be Joe Mantello's new mounting of Three Tall Women, but I suspect most voters will view Glenda Jackson's presumed Best Actress win as a way to honor the entire production. 

(Fun fact: before becoming one of New York's go-to directors, Mantello was an actor who made his Broadway debut as Louis in the original mounting of Angels in America to Tony-nominated effect.)

Will & Should Win: Angels in America

Best Revival of a Musical

Lauren Ambrose in My Fair Lady at Lincoln Center.

Nominees: Carousel; My Fair Lady; Once On This Island

While this category sports fewer nominees than Best Revival of a Play, it *feels* more competitive as it lacks an obvious front runner. Carousel seems likely to be an also-ran, since the plethora of well executed individual elements haven't quite gelled as a whole for many theatregoers. Some feel the issues are inherent in the script and its questionable portrayal of domestic abuse, while others just think this particular production misses the mark in how it handles said elements, but either way the cumulative effect is a revival with enough naysayers to prevent a win.

Lincoln Center's lavish production of My Fair Lady was always destined to be this season's prestige revival, and it delivers on all fronts. Unlike Carousel, the creative team behind this show has addressed its problematic aspects in a way that appeals to modern sensibilities without betraying the original intent of the show. If anything, director Bartlett Sher's take on the material feels closer in spirit to Lerner and Loewe's actual text than many more "traditional" productions. As always, Sher has assembled a top notch cast to present a subtly revolutionary take on a show we all think we know, and it seems like once again Sher's efforts will result in a Best Revival win.

And yet I can't help but root for Michael Arden's breathtaking in-the-round staging of Once On This Island. While it lacks the sheer physical scale of its competitors it is no less ambitious, having beautifully transformed the Circle in the Square Theatre into an evocative island paradise overflowing with theatrical ingenuity and genuine heart. While I've heard whispers that some found My Fair Lady a tad too stately and reverential, I have yet to encounter anything but effusive praise for Once On This Island. It would certainly be a Tony moment to see this scrappy little show walk off with one of the night's biggest prizes, and while I don't expect it to happen, I can certainly hope for it.

Will Win: My Fair Lady
Should Win: Once On This Island (but My Fair Lady is also fantastic)


Keep checking this space for more 2018 Tony Award predictions in the weeks ahead! In the meantime, make your voice heard in the comments, and check out the rest of my Tony coverage by clicking below:

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2017 Tony Award Predictions: Best Revival

The 71st annual Tony Awards are this Sunday, and my annual predictions keep rolling right along. It's now time to discuss the prestigious production awards, those which honor an entire show rather than an individual part of it. Of all the award categories, a win here has the most noticeable impact on a show's box office, as well as its future prospects when it comes to potential tours and regional productions. 

As always, I will use a combination of personal opinion, critical consensus, and industry buzz to determine the most likely winner. So on to the Best Revival categories!

Best Revival of a Play

The cast of Jitney on Broadway.

Nominees: Jitney; The Little Foxes; Present Laughter; Six Degrees of Separation

Manhattan Theatre Club, one of the biggest not-for-profit players on the New York theatre scene, has a hit or miss track record when it comes to their Broadway seasons. But this year has been nothing but hits, with all three of their Broadway productions (Heisenberg, Jitney, and The Little Foxes) earning both critical acclaim and fairly healthy box office. Which is why it seems inevitable that MTC will take home the Tony for Best Play Revival this year, with the only question being which production it will win for.

The Little Foxes has all the elements that add up to Tony gold. It is currently running, features a much praised cast (several of whom are up for individual awards), and plenty of buzz thanks to the fact that stars Laura Linney and Cynthia Nixon play the two primary roles in repertory. But my gut tells me it will be MTC's other revival, the long-awaited Broadway bow of August Wilson's Jitney, that actually brings home the prize on Sunday night. Despite being the only nominee not currently running, Jitney was universally beloved by critics as serious art, and it's recent Drama Desk win only increases the production's profile and chances of winning. Six Degrees of Separation and Present Laughter will have to settle for just being nominated, as neither piece has inspired the kind of passion that makes people vote for you over other worthy options.

Will Win: Jitney

Best Revival of a Musical

Tony-nominee Kate Baldwin, Tony-nominee Bette Midler, Beanie Feldstein, and Taylor Trensch in Hello, Dolly!

Nominees: Falsettos; Hello, Dolly!; Miss Saigon

This award is currently Hello, Dolly's to lose, and not just because of the sensational performance of Bette Midler in the title role. From top to bottom, this is one of the best realized productions of the season, and arguably the best Dolly we're likely to see in our lifetime. Composer Jerry Herman reportedly turned down multiple offers to revive this Golden Age classic over the years, waiting for just the right cast and director to make the show sing. He has found it in Jerry Zaks' sumptuous staging, which honors the show's old school roots while simultaneously making it feel fresh and new again. The sets, costumes, lights, choreography, and performances all add up to pure theatrical magic that will win over even those who aren't especially enamored with Hello, Dolly! as a show (as structurally, it admittedly has some faults).

The only thing that could spoil Dolly's victory lap would be a late in the game surge for Lincoln Center's Falsettos. The toast of the town when it opened this fall, the Broadway return of William Finn's signature work at one point appeared to be the show to beat, but the long months between its early January closing and now make it difficult to envision an actual win. Working in the show's favor is its incredibly appealing quartet of leads, who have been dutifully making the press rounds throughout Tony season professing their love for the show and one another. Their charm and innate likability could help remind voters what they liked so much about the show to begin with, but overcoming Dolly is a major uphill battle. And compared to its two competitors, Miss Saigon just doesn't have the acclaim or buzz to pull off an upset.

Will and Should Win: Hello, Dolly!

Check back soon for my predictions in the all important Best Play and Musical races, and catch up on the rest of my 2017 Tony coverage below!

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Extremely Early 2017 Tony Predictions: Part I

January and February are traditionally slow months for Broadway, both in terms of show openings and ticket sales. They are also times of changeover, as older shows close up shop to make way for the incoming crop of spring production. A whopping 23 shows will open between now and April 27th, the cutoff for Tony Award eligibility, which means only the most well received fall productions even have a chance of cutting through the spring buzz to secure nomination slots in May. And as I do every year at this time, it's time to discuss which shows are in the best position to do just that!

This fall produced a lot of work critics deemed good but not great, which leaves plenty of room for things to change depending on the strength of the spring shows. With few critical or commercial hits among the fall shows, all these predictions should be taken with a grain of salt, with many vulnerable to missing out on nominations should the spring prove especially fruitful artistically.

Best Musical

Ben Platt and the cast of Dear Evan Hansen.

While it seems a tad early to make this prediction, my gut tells me we have already seen the 2017 Tony winner for Best Musical. Both Dear Evan Hansen and Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812 opened to excellent reviews and robust box office, putting them in excellent position to be remembered with nominations. The boundary pushing productions are also the kind of inventive work the Tony committee has increasingly favored in the past few years, making it even more difficult to imagine either show being shut out of the highest profile awards race.

If the spring shows prove to be unexpectedly weak (unlikely, but possible), then there's a possibility for Holiday Inn or A Bronx Tale to sneak into contention. A Bronx Tale is the more likely of the two to break out, as Holiday Inn seems to have been too slight for most critics and will be long closed by the time nominations are handed out. And while I found aspects to appreciate in both In Transit and Paramour, neither is really Best Musical material, making their nominations extremely unlikely.

Best Play

Mary-Louis Parker and Denis Arndt in Manhattan Theatre Club's Broadway production of Heisenberg.

Currently, the only shows that quality for this category are The Encounter; Heisenberg; Oh, Hello on Broadway; and The Present. With a robust slate of new plays coming this spring, including Broadway transfers of the incredibly well received Sweat, Oslo, and Indecent, I expect only one fall play to make it into Tony consideration. I'm split on whether to call things for The Encounter or Heisenberg, but I lean toward the latter due to it being the most "play-like" (although the increasingly progressive Tony voters could well opt for the experimental but well received The Encounter instead). Should the spring shows disappoint there's even an outside chance the partly scripted, partly improvised Oh, Hello makes the cut, although as this is both a playwriting and production award the improvised segments could hurt the comedy's chances.

Best Musical Revival

Lincoln Center's much heralded revival of William Finn and James Lapine's Falsettos.

This fall only saw two musical revivals, the much anticipated Falsettos and the are-they-really-bringing-that-back Cats. Personally, I don't understand how the awkwardly constructed Falsettos is so beloved by the theatrical community, and I say that as a gay man. Based on my personal observations, one's enjoyment of this revival was directly tied to one's familiarity with the show beforehand; if you already knew Falsettos, the revival was practically perfect, whereas if you were unfamiliar with the show the flaws in the writing were more apparent (I fall into the second category). That said, I cannot imagine a scenario in which Falsettos doesn't get nominated for Best Revival, even if there are a lot of spring shows to fend off on the way to actually winning this category. The chances of Cats fending off Hello, Dolly; Sunset Boulevard; Miss Saigon; and Sunday in the Park with George for a nomination seem laughable.

Best Play Revival

The cast of the Broadway premiere of August Wilson's Jitney.

There are currently for productions eligible in this category: The Cherry Orchard, Les Liaisons Dangereuses, The Front Page, and Jitney. With a similar number of play revivals opening in the spring, I'm fairly confident in predicting a 50/50 spread between fall and spring nominees, which would allow for two of the above plays to make the cut. The Cherry Orchard was met with some of the harshest reviews of the season, while Les Liaisons sparked at best muted admiration, which leaves The Front Page and Jitney as the presumptive nominees. The very well reviewed Jitney is probably the most competitive, as most reviews for The Front Page agreed the play was starting to show its age despite tremendous work from an all-star cast (the routine complaints about a slow first act will also hold the show back).


And those are my current predictions; let me know if you agree or disagree in the comments! And check back soon for early assessments of the Leading Actor/Actress races.

2015 Tony Predictions: Best Revival

The Tony Awards take place this Sunday, and about the only talk you'll hear on the Great White Way is speculation on who will win the coveted spinning medallions. I've already explored the writers, directors, and actors I suspect will win Broadway's highest honor, so now it's finally time to tackle the production awards. Whereas the other Tony categories honor individual excellence, the four production awards recognize the collective efforts of the many artists responsible for producing any piece of theatre. These awards are also the most likely to affect a show's box office fortunes, which make them the most desired honors in the entire theatrical community.

As always, I will be predicting who will win, which does not necessarily align with who I would like to win. Should there be a major discrepancy, I will be certain to point it out in my analysis. At the same time, it bears repeating that all of the shows nominated in these categories have plenty of artistic merit, so even if I personally think a different show should win it doesn't mean the likely winner is undeserving. Now read on to find out which of this season's revivals are most likely to strike Tony gold.

Warning: Occasional snark and plenty of speculation to follow.

Best Revival of a Play

The Tony nominated cast of The Elephant Man.

 

Nominees: The Elephant Man; Skylight; This is Our Youth; You Can't Take It With You

This is the unusual category where the majority of nominees are long closed, giving the sole currently running production (West End import Skylight) a tangible advantage over its competitors. In fact, each production's likelihood of winning seems to correlate with how much time has passed since its closing date. The fact that This Is Our Youth was nominated at all remains one of the bigger surprises of this Tony season, as the production struggled at the box office throughout its limited run and closed back in early January. I would be shocked should it actually win, just as I would be similarly surprised to see the well-liked You Can't Take It With You triumph over the weightier dramas in this category (Tony voters tend to be biased against comedies, even ones that have won the Pulitzer Prize).

Although Skylight scored very strong notices, I actually think the Bradley Cooper led Elephant Man will be triumphant this year. That starry revival exceeded all expectations both artistically and at the box office; it was the talk of the town during its limited engagement, and the fact all three principal actors are nominated for Tony Awards shows what a strong impression they and the production made. The feeling towards Skylight seems respectful rather than passionate, which I think will ultimately be the British import's downfall. Then again, absolutely no one expected A Raisin in the Sun to triumph in this category last year, which makes me wary of another surprise this year. I am still officially predicting The Elephant Man, but it only has a slight advantage against its currently running competitor.

Will & Should Win: The Elephant Man

 

Best Revival of a Musical
 

I know I don't predict technical awards on this blog, but The King and I is totally winning Best Costumes. Look at that DRESS!

 

Nominees: The King and I; On the Town; On the Twentieth Century

This category is the most cut and dry of the production categories. Arguments can be made for the exuberant On the Town and better than expected On the Twentieth Century, but neither production can compete with the unadulterated brilliance of Lincoln Center's The King and I. Bartlett Sher's masterful revival of the oft-produced Rodgers and Hammerstein classic has been deemed a definitive production by many in the industry, and is my personal favorite production of this Broadway season (new, revival, musical, or otherwise). Expertly acted, superbly sung, and visually stunning, it calls to mind everything wonderful about the traditional Broadway musical without ever feeling dated or tired.

Should The King and I fail to win this category I would strongly disagree, but could at least accept a victory for the incredibly entertaining On the Town. That production does everything a revival should; it takes a long forgotten show and makes the piece feel exciting, relevant, and fresh again, resulting in one of the most unceasingly entertaining productions of the season. On the Twentieth Century would be a harder choice to defend, as despite a top notch cast the script is starting to show its age. In fact, without leading lady Kristin Chenoweth and the oafish Andy Karl I think the show would be forgotten almost the moment it ends. But these are all a moot points, as Lincoln Center has been the front runner for this award since The King and I was even rumored. The fact the resulting production meets and in my opinion surpasses their much beloved South Pacific from several seasons back just seals the deal.

Will & Should Win: The King and I

Check back this Friday for my take on the two most important races of the season, Best Play and Best Musical. In the meantime, feel free to catch up on the rest of my Tony coverage below!

Nominations React

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Best Direction & Choreography

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2015 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part I (Production)

It's that time of year again! Now that spring has finally sprung and all of this season's Broadway productions have officially opened, it's time to discuss one of my favorite entertainment events of the year: the Tony Awards! They're Broadway's highest honor, designed to celebrate the industry's best and brightest stars and productions, and a strong showing at the Tonys can help turn an unsuccessful show into a hit (see last year's Best Musical winner A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder, which never would have recouped without the box office boost its win provided).

This year's nominations will be announced April 28th, and every day between now and then I will be posting my predictions and analysis of the likely nominees in each of the Big 12 categories (New Play/Musical, Play/Musical Revival, and the 8 acting awards). I've had a pretty good track record in the past, but each year things become more complicated thanks to the ever-changing rules that have seen the maximum number of potential nominees expand. This year, the Best Play, Best Musical, and Best Play Revival categories all have enough eligible productions to prompt an expansion to five nominees. But as last year's four horse Best Musical race proved, just because the committee can nomination five shows doesn't mean it will, which makes predicting how many slots there are to fill just as hard as whittling down the eligible productions.

I've put a lot of thought into this and am fairly confident in my choices, but every year the nominations committee throws the Broadway community at least one curve ball. In acknowledgement of this, I will be listing a Wildcard nominee in each category, representing the production I think has the best chance of sneaking past my official predictions and into Tony Award contention. So without further ado, here are the productions I think will be competing for those much coveted Antoinette Perry Awards!


Best Musical

Brad Oscar and Brian d'Arcy James provide two of the funniest performances in the glitzy new musical comedy Something Rotten!

This may be the trickiest of the production categories to predict, as while there are enough eligible productions to allow five Best Musical nominees, last year's awards showed that is by no means guaranteed. In an odd bit of Tony math, I actually think we'll see the maximum five nominations despite this year's crop of musicals being (in my opinion) less exciting and worthy of that honor. There has yet to be a breakout critical and commercial hit among this year's new musicals, which probably means more variety in the Tony committee's number one picks and therefore a greater chance of the kind of close vote that would provoke a five competitor category.

While there are not sure things, I think Fun Home and Something Rotten! are this year's contenders. Both are well reviewed and recently opened musicals, so the buzz on both is strong for very different reasons. Rotten lovingly mocks Broadway in the same way as past Best Musical winners The Producers and Spamalot, and both the cast and creative team is filled with well-loved industry professionals who have been doing this for years. Fun Home is the rare musical that has made the shortlist for the Pulitzer Prize (even if it didn't win), addressing such important issues as personal identity and parent/child relationships in a way that is both funny and thought provoking. If either show was left off the list on Tony Tuesday, I would be very surprised.

From there, things are a lot less certain. Finding Neverland seems to be the commercial success of the season, and Tony voters clearly love director Diane Paulus, with all three of her previous Broadway credits winning their production categories. That said, it was utterly trashed by critics, to the point where its box office prowess might not matter. The top-notch Honeymoon in Vegas deserves a spot on this list, but since it recently closed after a very rough Broadway run I feel its perceived status as a flop will hinder its chances. The same logic also doesn't bode well for Sting's The Last Ship, although I can also envision a scenario where enough time has passed since its January closing for some nostalgia to set in and see it squeak into the category. An American in Paris scored surprisingly strong reviews, enough to put it into serious contention, and one can't rule out The Visit, as it is the last time Tony voters will ever be able to nominate a new work by theatrical legends Kander & Ebb. And after a surprisingly strong showing in the other industry Best Musical races, ensemble comedy It Shoulda Been You stands a legitimate shot at cracking into this close race.

Nominees
An American in Paris
Fun Home
It Shoulda Been You
Something Rotten!
The Visit

Wildcard
Honeymoon in Vegas


Best Play

The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time proves you don't need a realistic set to produce some mind-blowing images.

This category could be easily subtitled "The British Import We Liked the Best." The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time and Wolf Hall are virtual locks, given their ecstatic reception by the New York press. I would also consider it hugely surprising if The Audience wasn't nominated, as it is one of the most successful plays of the season and everybody loves Helen Mirren (even if critics weren't entirely sold on Peter Morgan's script).

Which doesn't leave a whole lot of room for competitors, even assuming a five nominee playing field. The homegrown show with the best chance of cracking into the Best Play race is Hand to God, whose Cinderella story from Off-Off-Broadway play to Main Stem critical hit is catnip to Tony voters who will surely overlook the show's somewhat troubling gender politics. In fact, there is a genuine chance that 2013 Pulitzer Prize winner Disgraced doesn't even get nominated, as interest in that production has cooled considerably since its critically acclaimed October premiere. Constellations (another British import) scored surprisingly strong reviews and is much fresher in voters minds, making it a serious contender for the fifth nomination slot. And one can't completely rule out box office smash Fish in the Dark, although Tony voters have recently proven far less influenced by box office success than they used to be; since Fish received kind but not glowing reviews, I don't think it really has a chance of spoiling anyone's fun, but stranger things have happened.

Nominees
The Audience
Constellations
The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time
Hand to God
Wolf Hall Parts I & II

Wildcard
Disgraced


Best Musical Revival

I could have danced all night with this Broadway power couple, both giving exhilarating performances in Bartlett Sher's jaw-droppingly gorgeous staging of The King and I.

With only five eligible productions, Best Musical Revival is the one category we can guarantee won't have five nominees as the Tony rules won't allow it. The committee could nominate as few as three productions, as they did last year, although I suspect they will go with the traditional four as I think last year's reduced field was done primarily to keep all the eligible productions from being nominated (although if we're being honest, Cabaret deserved a nomination last year much more than Les Miserables).

Prediction this category is relatively simple. On the Town and The King and I are both transcendent productions and my two favorite musicals, new or revived, of the season. Both are guaranteed nominations, and at this moment I am 100% certain the Best Revival award will go to one of them. Roundabout Theatre Company took a gamble on producing the somewhat dated On the Twentieth Century (it's one of the most complex musical productions the non-profit has ever done), something that largely paid off thanks to the irrepressible dynamo that is leading lady Kristin Chenoweth. Between Chenoweth's operatic antics and the show's tap dancing porters, Twentieth Century's nomination prospects are looking very strong.

The only real question here is if the fourth slot will go to Side Show, Gigi, or neither. Side Show got better reviews, although it also struggled at the box office and was kicked out of the St. James Theatre in early January to make room for the more profitable sounding Something Rotten! Gigi is currently running (always a plus with Tony voters) and the presence of former Disney Channel star Vanessa Hudgens has thus far proven to be a fairly reliable box office draw, which a few years ago would have had me predicting it for the final nomination slot. Given recent Tony trends, however, I'm giving the edge to Side Show, whose fans are much more passionate than Gigi's and will likely see a Best Revival nod as one way to make up for the show's short Broadway run.

Nominees
The King & I
On the Town
On the Twentieth Century
Side Show

Wildcard
Gigi


Best Play Revival

Yes, there were people in The Elephant Man not named Bradley Cooper (but for better or worse, Cooper is the one who sold the tickets).

Normally a hyper-competitive category, this year's Best Play Revival race is somewhat weaker than normal. Many of the nine eligible productions got respectful reviews, but few provoked much enthusiasm from the press, which makes me suspect that this category may stay at four nominees despite enough revivals to allow for a category expansion. The one sure bet (and likely winner) is the Bradley Cooper led The Elephant Man, which was the talk of the town this past winter and probably the strongest reviewed production in the bunch. Following close behind is the just opened revival of David Hare's Skylight, imported from London's West End with its leads intact.

The first three revivals of the season (This is Our Youth, Love Letters, and You Can't Take It With You) all got very strong reviews, but have also been closed for a very long time. I honestly had forgotten about both Youth and Love Letters until I was looking at a list of eligible productions, and I doubt many others will remember them without prompting, basically killing any chance they have at a nomination. I do expect You Can't Take It With You to make the cut, which leaves one more slot for Tony nominators to fill. It's Only a Play was one of the fall's hot tickets thanks to its starry cast, something that has allowed the production to hang on despite generally poor reviews. Interest has cooled considerably since then, but the fact it's still running and has recently welcomed back headliner Nathan Lane means it has to be considered. I personally don't think it will edge out both The Heidi Chronicles and The Real Thing for the fourth nomination slot - the latter two plays are much better respected than Terrence McNally's showbiz comedy - but you never know.

Nominees
The Elephant Man
The Heidi Chronicles
Skylight
You Can't Take It With You

Wildcard
The Real Thing


Those are my predictions in the production categories. Check back tomorrow for my Best Actor predictions, and don't be afraid to share your thoughts in the comments section!

Previous Coverage
Tony Rule Change

Broadway and the Burden of Unrealistic Expectations

Tony-nominee Andrew Rannells dons Hedwig's wig and high heels through October 12th, at which point Michael C. Hall takes over.

For the third week in a row, Playbill.com has felt the need to take thinly disguised digs at Andrew Rannells' box office performance in Hedwig and the Angry Inch. And while nothing they have reported has been untrue, the way they are spinning the story is indicative of a problem in the way they and many others view Broadway grosses, and the unrealistic expectations placed on most shows.

In case you somehow hadn't heard, Tony-winner Neil Patrick Harris brought in ridiculous amounts of cash during his 5 month stint as the German transgendered rocker. The show was routinely sold-out, set various house records at the Belasco Theatre, and spent most of the summer grossing more than $1 million per week. Obviously, the producers of the revival were wise to wait until Harris' schedule allowed him to do the show before mounting a Broadway production, which recouped its entire investment in mid-July. It was a given that the show would see a decrease in box office receipts when Harris departed (it was mildly surprising the producers decided to keep the show running without him), but I think spinning Rannells' run thus far as a financial disappointment is a disservice to Rannells, the show, and Broadway in general.

Last week, Hedwig made $514,411 (59% of its potential gross) and played to 70% capacity crowds. That is a large step down from last week's 81% potential gross and 93% full houses and an even bigger drop from Harris' heyday, but every single show on Broadway saw significant (often six figure) drops in grosses following the Labor Day holiday. The one exception to this is the Nathan Lane-Matthew Broderick led It's Only a Play, which managed to buck the trend by having 8 performances instead of the 5 it had the week before. Hedwig is still doing better, gross-wise, than the much more expensive Cinderella, Best Musical winner Once, and the Diane Paulus-helmed Pippin.

Considering that Hedwig is a cult musical which until a few months ago no one was sure could succeed on the Great White Way and has lost its main selling point, I'd call those numbers just fine. As a small show with low running costs which has already recouped (there aren't many costumes or pricey technical elements, and you can bet that Rannells' salary isn't anywhere near what Harris was being paid), Hedwig likely has a very low bar to clear in order to remain profitable. And while Rannells is popular within theatre circles, he doesn't have nearly the mainstream appeal or drawing power as Harris. Viewed in that light, the fact that he and the Hedwig brand can fill the Belasco to 70% capacity during a notoriously slow time of year is something to be celebrated.

The fact that many people view these numbers as disappointing points to a larger problem in the unrealistic expectations producers and the public have for Broadway shows. Because shows like Wicked and The Lion King have done so well for so many years, they have erroneously become the yard sticks by which a potential hit is judged. This is akin to saying that an athlete is no good because they aren't performing at Olympic medal levels, which is absolutely ridiculous. The last place finisher at the Olympics is still better than a huge percentage of the population, and the fact that Hedwig continues to run (and has just announced an extension into January 2015) while other spring shows have already closed is a testament to how well the show is doing financially. Just because a show isn't making $1 million a week doesn't mean it's doing poorly, and we shouldn't consider shows a disappointment if they don't run for 10+ years.

But unfortunately, many people do use those metrics as the measure of a show's success, which is unfair to the industry and all the very talented people working in it. It casts the industry in a poor light and makes the theatre seem much less healthy than it actually is; as I have stated before, I think the current model of more shows with shorter runs is ultimately better and more exciting for the industry artistically. And while I am not privy to any budgeting meetings for Broadway shows, I think too many shows are budgeted in a way that they have to do sell-out business to be financially viable, since that is what is expected of a "successful" show.

So let's try to focus on the positive. If a relative unknown like Andrew Rannells can retain such a large percentage of certified star Neil Patrick Harris' box office numbers, that is a win. It shows that audiences are in fact interested in the show and not just the lead actor, something that should be encouraging to all the people who decry Broadway's current obsession with celebrity vehicles. And if numbers continue to decline and Hedwig closes before the new year, who cares? By every metric that matters, the production is an unqualified success, and exposed a great piece of contemporary musical theatre to a much larger audience than could ever fit in the show's original Off-Broadway home and the small spaces it is traditionally performed in. To borrow the famed Gershwin lyric, "who could ask for anything more?"

2014 Tony Predictions: Revival

The big day is fast approaching, and there are only four Tony categories left for me to predict.  The production categories are perhaps the most coveted of all Tony honors, since they recognize the entire show and not just one individual element.  These categories also caused an unusual amount of anticipation when the nominations were announced due to the recently enacted rule change allowing for anywhere between 3 and 5 nominees, depending on the number of eligible productions.  Now that we have our official contenders, it's time to discuss who will win, and whether or not they are the most deserving.

Best Revival of a Play

Stephen Fry and the company of last fall's all-male revival of Shakespeare's Twelfth Night.

 

Nominees: The Cripple of Inishmaan, The Glass Menagerie, A Raisin in the Sun, Twelfth Night

First, I want to reiterate my surprise that there are only four Best Revival of Play nominees, given the overwhelming number of incredibly well done revivals that premiered during this season.  It's a shame that neither of the Patrick Stewart/Ian McKellan repertory plays made the cut, and that Roundabout's highly regarded productions of little seen plays were also completely excluded.  That said, whether there had been a fifth nominee wouldn't have mattered, because this race has been between The Glass Menagerie and Twelfth Night since both premiered to critical raves last fall.

To me, the clear choice here is Twelfth Night.  I do not understand the critical praise showered upon The Glass Menagerie; I thought it was one of the worst things I saw last fall, well cast but ultimately ruined by John Tiffany's overly conceptual direction.  Meanwhile, Twelfth Night managed to take a play I've never cared for and make me love it, a feat all the more impressive considering it's one of Shakespeare's most performed comedies.  The gentlemen in the all-male Twelfth Night also acted circles around every other ensemble on Broadway this season, and with the benefit of hindsight on the now closed productions I think enough Tony voters realize Twelfth Night is more worthy of recognition.  I won't rule out a win for Menagerie the way I'm ruling out the pleasant Cripple of Inishmaan and Kenny Leon's acceptable retread of A Raisin in the Sun, but the smart money is on the Bard's comedy.

Will and Should Win:  Twelfth Night

 

Best Revival of a Musical

Neil Patrick Harris and his onstage band, The Angry Inch.

 

Nominees:  Hedwig and the Angry Inch, Les Miserables, Violet

Hedwig and the Angry Inch deserves this one by a mile.  It's the only one of the three nominees I don't have reservations about, and it managed to successfully scale up an intimate show for a big Broadway house.  Neil Patrick Harris is excellent in the title role, and director Michael Mayer has done a fantastic job staging the piece so it is both slick and fluid.  Meanwhile, Violet is a well-intentioned production of what to me is a problematic show, and despite the game actors it doesn't manage to completely overcome the script's structural issues and somewhat cliché message.  And Les Miserables is just awful, a shameless cash grab prompted by the *very* recent film version that lacks both the spectacle and the heart of the original production.  Despite heroic work by Ramin Karimloo as Jean Valjean, the rest of the cast sings with varying levels of proficiency and almost none of them act their roles with any conviction, making you feel every minute of the show's 3-hour runtime.  I have seen Les Miserables a half-dozen times over the years, and this revival is the first time I've thought the show is too damn long.

I supposed there is a slight chance Les Miserables wins, especially if the out-of-town voters pool their efforts behind it because it will tour better than the other shows (which probably won't tour at all).  But the sheen seems to have already worn off on the musical epic, while Neil Patrick Harris and Hedwig are white hot.  The fact that the latter production is also the most deserving just seals the deal.

Will and Should Win: Hedwig and the Angry Inch


Check back soon for my final 2014 Tony predictions, and check out the rest of my awards coverage below!

2014 Tony Nominations React
Best Direction and Choreography
Best Book and Score
Best Featured Actor
Best Featured Actress
Best Actor
Best Actress

2014 Tony Nominations React

Previous Tony-nominee Jonathan Groff and tenuously-connected-to-Broadway Lucy Liu announce the 2014 Tony Award nominations.

They're here!  The 2014 Tony Award nominees were announced bright and early this morning, and there is plenty to discuss (some of it surprising, some of it less so).  But before we go any further, here are the complete list of nominees in the Big 12 categories.  The asterisks indicate nominees that I correctly predicted, and the asterisks in parentheses indicate Wildcard picks that succeeded in making the cut.

Best Play
Act One
*All The Way 
*Casa Valentina 
*Mothers and Sons
*Outside Mullingar

Best Musical
*After Midnight
*Aladdin
*Beautiful: The Carole King Musical
*A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder

Best Revival of a Play
*The Cripple of Inishmaan
*The Glass Menagerie
(*)A Raisin in the Sun
*Twelfth Night

Best Revival of a Musical
*Hedwig and the Angry Inch
*Les Misérables
*Violet

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play
Samuel Barnett, Twelfth Night
*Bryan Cranston, All The Way
*Chris O'Dowd, Of Mice and Men
Mark Rylance, Richard III
*Tony Shalhoub, Act One

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play
*Tyne Daly, Mothers and Sons
(*)LaTanya Richardson Jackson, A Raisin in the Sun
*Cherry Jones, The Glass Menagerie
*Audra McDonald, Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grill
*Estelle Parsons, The Velocity of Autumn

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical
*Neil Patrick Harris, Hedwig and the Angry Inch
(*)Ramin Karimloo, Les Misérables
*Andy Karl, Rocky
*Jefferson Mays, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
*Bryce Pinkham, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical
(*)Mary Bridget Davies, A Night with Janis Joplin
*Sutton Foster, Violet
*Idina Menzel, If/Then
*Jessie Mueller, Beautiful: The Carole King Musical
*Kelli O'Hara, The Bridges of Madison County

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play
*Reed Birney, Casa Valentina
*Paul Chahidi, Twelfth Night
(*)Stephen Fry, Twelfth Night
*Mark Rylance, Twelfth Night
*Brian J. Smith, The Glass Menagerie

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play
Sarah Greene, The Cripple of Inishmaan
*Celia Keenan-Bolger, The Glass Menagerie
*Sophie Okonedo, A Raisin in the Sun
*Anika Noni Rose, A Raisin in the Sun
*Mare Winningham, Casa Valentina

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical
*Danny Burstein, Cabaret
*Nick Cordero, Bullets Over Broadway
*Joshua Henry, Violet
*James Monroe Iglehart, Aladdin
*Jarrod Spector, Beautiful: The Carole King Musical

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical
*Linda Emond, Cabaret
Lena Hall, Hedwig and the Angry Inch
*Anika Larsen, Beautiful: The Carole King Musical
*Adriane Lenox, After Midnight
(*)Lauren Worsham, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder


First of all, I'm pretty damn pleased with the accuracy of my guesses.  If you only look at my official predictions, I have an 80% accuracy rate, which jumps to 91% if you include Wildcard predictions as correct guesses.  Now here are some more thoughts on the nominees:

-Considering that most critics felt this was a weak season for new plays on Broadway, I'm surprised to see five nominees in that category while the Best Musical race remains unexpectedly limited to four contenders.  And I'm especially surprised that The Realistic Joneses didn't make the cut even with an expanded field; I guess the nominations committee found the play more off-putting than the press (which was still sharply divided).

-Speaking of Best Musical, I personally am bummed they didn't see fit to nominate The Bridges of Madison County for the top prize.  The show is by no means perfect, but it has an artistic ambition rarely seen on Broadway these days, and I wish that had been acknowledged with a nomination (ditto for If/Then, although having not yet seen that show I don't have as strong an opinion about it's exclusion).

-I try not to actively root against shows, but I feel validated by the relative scarcity of nominations for Rocky.  Apparently the Tony committee was as nonplussed about that misfire as I was.  Note:  While it is not a category I predicted, Alex Timbers' exclusion from the Best Director race is one of the major surprises of the day.

-Why would the Tony committee go through the trouble of deeming Cabaret eligible for Best Revival (when according to the rules it really shouldn't be) only to not nominate it?  That seems unnecessarily cruel and a bit of a slap in the face to Roundabout.  Note:  The exclusion of Cabaret from the category was my Wildcard prediction for that race.  Just sayin'.

-Twelfth Night was undeniably amazing (and easily the best production of that play I've ever seen), but I am gobsmacked by just how well the show did in the acting nominations.  There are five total nods shared among its ensemble, including a surprising but well deserved nod for Samuel Bartlett's Viola.  Sidenote:  In my midseason predictions, I mentioned Bartlett as a dark horse contender, but by the time I made my official predictions I thought some of the heat for this production had died down.  Clearly I was wrong.

-I never considered her a serious contender to win, but I am still shocked by Marin Mazzie's exclusion from the Best Featured Actress in a Musical race.  That role was highly sought after and she beat out some of the industry's biggest name to secure it.  Considering Mazzie has been rather forthcoming with her desire for a Tony Award (despite 3 career nominations she's never won), this can't be what she wanted or expected to happen.

-Congratulations to Mary Bridget Davis for breaking into the extremely competitive Best Actress in a Musical Race.  While I personally skipped A Night with Janis Joplin because that music doesn't appeal to me, I heard nothing but complimentary things about her and she should be proud that she made enough of an impression to get nominated despite her show being long closed.

-I really really REALLY wish the committee had nominated Lisa O'Hare's acidic Sibella Hallward along with Lauren Worsham's equally deserving Phoebe D'Ysquith.  A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder has one of the most talented quartet of leads of any Broadway show right now, and it would have been wonderful to see all four of them recognized with nominations.



I will of course have lots more Tony coverage in the coming weeks (including some reviews for more Tony nominated shows), but before I go I want to leave you with one final thought.  Every year there is a lot of talk about who gets "snubbed" by the Tonys, and this year there seems to be even more chatter than normal.  But let's not allow the grousing and griping to take away from the achievement of the people who did get nominated; it is quite an achievement, and they deserve to be celebrated.

Check back all month for more Tony coverage!  And for a more in-depth look at my nominee predictions, look here:
Production
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Featured Actor/Actress

2014 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part I (Production)

And just like that, it's Tony time!  After the seemingly never-ending winter endured by New York and the rest of the country, spring has sprung and with it comes a veritable deluge of new Broadway openings.  With Tony nominations just around the corner, it's time for my annual guessing game of which shows and performers will be waking up to very good news on Tuesday, April 29th. 

As always, I am working on a combination of firsthand experience, educated guesses, and wild speculation.  And just to give myself a bit of a buffer, I will be picking one Wildcard nominee in each category, representing the person or production I think most likely to unseat one of my official guesses (the Tony voters love throwing in a curveball every now and again).  Today I will focus on the production categories, since they are typically the easiest to predict, before following with my prediction for Lead Actor, Lead Actress and then, for the first time ever, Featured Actor/Actress.  Now let's make some predictions!

Best Musical

Every other piece on A Gentleman's Guide inevitably uses a picture of one of Jefferson Mays' 8 characters, so I'm bucking the trend and highlighting his equally talented costars Lisa O'Hare and Bryce Pinkham.

Thanks to a much discussed rule change back in February, this year's Best Musical category could potentially be expanded to five nominees instead of the traditional four, making things that much trickier to predict.  Even though the committee does not have to pick five nominees, I can't imagine they would have gone through the trouble of changing the rules not to exercise their newfound power this season.  That said, while this year saw an unusually high number of new musicals open on Broadway, very few were critical homeruns, so which five shows will make the cut is up for debate.

As far as sure things, I'd consider Disney's Aladdin a guaranteed nominee since many critics felt it was the Mouse House's most successful productions since The Lion King.  A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder has taken to bragging that it is the "best reviewed musical of the season," a claim which is backed up by the fact that it leads both the Drama Desk and Outer Critics Circle Awards in total nominations; I think this delightfully clever farce will receive a well-earned nomination.  And although its status as a revue rather than a traditional book musical will hurt its chances of actually winning, the well-received After Midnight is a likely lock for a nomination as well.

After that, it's anyone's guess.  Bullets Over Broadway divided critics much more than I expected it to, and is conspicuously absent from the Drama Desk and Outer Critics lists (it did get a shout out from the Drama League, though).  Still, the show has such a wealth of talent involved and is one of the more commercial offerings of the season, so it can't be ruled out completely.  I personally thought Rocky was a bit of a train wreck, no matter how impressive the final twenty minutes are, but that show has done well in the guild nominations so far.  And the theatre community has definitely warmed to Beautiful, which has done consistently solid business since quietly opening this past January.  But Tony nominators typically like to include one "artsy" musical (think Next to Normal or Fela!), and the show most likely to fill that slot is Jason Robert Brown's gorgeous The Bridges of Madison County over the ambitious but flawed If/Then.  I'm hoping Bridges manages to KO Rocky (a great finale does not a good show make!), with Beautiful taking the final slot by being the least offensive option among the remaining shows.

Nominees:
After Midnight
Aladdin
Beautiful
The Bridges of Madison County
A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder

Wildcard:
Rocky

Best Play

Bryan Cranston and company are going All the Way...to the Tonys!

Unlike the Best Musical category, I don't think there are enough strong productions in this category to cause the Tony committee to nominate five shows.  I think we will see the traditional four nominees, with the safest bet being the Bryan Cranston-led All the Way.  Will Eno's bizarre, divisive The Realistic Joneses probably has enough admirers to net a nomination, especially given the strength of its starry cast.  Given the theatre community's respect for Terrance McNally and the fact that the play probably hits *very* close to home with a lot of Tony voters, I think Mothers and Sons has a good shot at a nomination, despite being mostly overlooked by the various guild awards.  The final slot will go to either Harvey Fierstein's Casa Valentina or John Patrick Shanely's Outside Mullingar.  Both authors are highly respected among the theatrical community, although Fierstein's decades of musical bookwriting may have damaged his playwriting street cred.  Then again, the entire community seems to love Fierstein not just as an artist but as a person, and his play is much fresher in voters' minds than the now shuttered Mullingar.  I'm going to stick by my guns and predict that Casa wins out in the end, although I won't be surprised if the committee does go with five nominees just to avoid having to choose.

Nominees:
All the Way
Casa Valentina
Mothers and Sons
The Realistic Jonses

Wildcard:
Outside Mullingar

Best Musical Revival

You guys, there is a LOT of cross dressing happening on Broadway these days.

The flip side of the rule change regarding the number of production category nominees is the much less talked about but in some ways more interesting possibility that the committee can REDUCE the number of slots in years with a lack of eligible quality productions.  I can't prove it, but I'm guessing that change is in direct response to the fact that for the past few years, Best Revival of a Musical has been the Tony's equivalent to a participation award; everyone who's eligible typically gets nominated.  Since the committee went out of its way to rule Roundabout's revival of their Cabaret revival eligible (even though it is the exact same production with the exact same creative team that won this award in 1998), I'm guessing we will see a four-nominee category where everything that could be included is.

Nominees:
Cabaret
Hedwig and the Angry Inch
Les Miserables
Violet

Wildcard:
The exclusion of Cabaret from this list

Best Play Revival

Of Mice and Men should get a Tony nomination, assuming star James Franco didn't call any members of the nominating committee a "little bitch."

The musicals may get all the press, but this has been an absolutely fantastic year for play revivals as well, and since the repertory productions from this fall are each being considered separately, there are 14(!) eligible shows in this category, many with fantastic reviews.  Even with 5 nominees someone is going to get snubbed, but there are a few productions I consider a lock for recognition.  Everyone and their mother went gaga over John Tiffany's The Glass Menagerie (except me, who named it one of the Worst Shows of 2013), and it is sure to be nominated.  So is the Mark Rylance-led Twelfth Night, a much more deserving show that is probably the frontrunner to win the whole thing.  Heading into the spring I would have considered the Denzel Washington-led A Raisin in the Sun a near certainty, but critics weren't as enthusiastic about it as they were about Fences a few seasons back.

Meanwhile, Roundabout got fantastic reviews for both The Winslow Boy and Machinal, although both shows have been off the boards for so long they probably aren't real contenders for recognition.  Patrick Stewart and Ian McKellan made the famously obtuse Waiting for Godot feel fresh and accessible, and given that American esteem for the two British thespians only increases with time they could very well push that production into contention.  Of Mice and Men and The Cripple of Inishmaan are both star-driven revivals that don't have the buzz of Washington's play but are doing pretty fantastic business, and Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grill has the good fortune of being a starring vehicle for Broadway's reigning queen, Audra McDonald.  Of these, I think the newness factor will work in Inishmaan's favor, while Waiting for Godot and Of Mice and Men's star power will push them over the edge to the semi-surprising exclusion of A Raisin in the Sun.  Audra McDonald's guaranteed acting nomination for Lady Day will likely be seen by the nominations committee as a way to honor that entire production.

Nominees:
The Cripple of Inishmaan
The Glass Menagerie
Of Mice and Men
Twelfth Night
Waiting for Godot

Wildcard: 
A Raisin in the Sun


Those are my picks for the production categories; check back tomorrow to see my predictions for Best Actress, which includes perhaps the most competitive race of the season.

Podcast Episode 10: Tony Roundtable

It's Tony time, and Jared, Jessica, Jackie, and Christopher get together to predict who will enter theatrical history as a winner on Broadway's biggest night. While we don't have time to predict every category, we will be discussing all eight acting awards as well as the four production races. Will "Kinky Boots" will triumph over "Matilda?" Can Judith Light win her second Tony in as many years? Does any revival have a chance against the behemoth that is "Pippin?" Find out by listening to this fun and lively edition of the Broadway, Etc. podcast!