Extremely Early 2015 Tony Predictions: Part III

Although they seem so very far away, the 2015 Tony Awards will be here before you know it. The current winter lull on Broadway is the perfect time to take stock of which fall productions and performers have made a particularly strong impression on critics and Tony voters, thereby keeping them in the conversation when the time comes to hand out Tony nominations on April 28th. I've already discussed the production and lead actor/actress races, so now its time to turn my attention to the Featured Actor and Actress categories. This where I expect the new rule that allows for up to seven nominees in performance categories to have the greatest effect, as past years have seen a wealth of supporting talent go unrecognized due to the categories' previously strict nominee limits. I don't expect every featured race to expand to the maximum possible nominees, but I wouldn't be surprised if one or two did. That said, I'm still going to be relatively conservative in my estimates, as history has proven time and time again that Tony voters favor spring shows.

So who's currently in the best position to hear their name announced on Tony Tuesday? Read on to find out!

WARNING: Occasional snark and lots of speculation to follow.

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Look for Clyde Alves (left) and Jay Armstrong Johnson (right) to join fellow On the Town sailor Tony Yazbeck (center) among this year's Tony nominees.

As with so many things, I'm expecting On the Town to dominate here. I would be shocked and more than a little indignant to see Jay Armstrong Johnson or Clyde Alves excluded from the Featured Actor race, as their work is every bit as compelling as costar and almost assured Best Actor nominee Tony Yazbeck. If some horrible twist of fate leaves only enough room for one of these supremely talented gentlemen, I give the slight edge to Johnson, whose completely endearing Chip benefits from the actor's extreme physicality and a crackling chemistry with Alysha Umphress' Hildy. I also expect at least one of Side Show's featured players to make an appearance here, although a particularly strong spring season might cause Tony voters to forget the excellent work of Matthew Hydzik, Ryan Silverman, and David St. Louis. Silverman is the most likely nominee thanks to his nuanced performance as both the show's primary love interest and antagonist, although St. Louis had the musical's most distinctive male role and sang the powerful ballad "You Should Be Loved," so he cannot be counted out. Also, should Honeymoon in Vegas' Tony Danza be deemed a supporting player despite his above the title billing, he may well make an appearance among the Featured Actor nominees as well.

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Two time Tony winner James Earl Jones could well find himself nominated again this year thanks to his turn as the laid back head of the Sycamore clan in You Can't Take It With You.

Despite the abundance of plays this fall, this category appears to be wide open, as many supporting players got good reviews but hardly any got great ones. I doubt the committee will pass up the opportunity to nominate the always reliable James Earl Jones for You Can't Take It With You, although they did pass over his meatier roles in Driving Miss Daisy and Cat on a Hot Tin Roof so you never know. Ian Barford is well-positioned for recognition thanks to his excellent work in the fall's most buzzed about play, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time, even though most of that show's praise has focused on the staging and its sensational leading man, Alex Sharp. The well-reviewed but mostly forgotten This Is Our Youth might actually break into the Tony conversation thanks to Kieran Culkin, and I can also see a scenario where Disgraced's Josh Radnor winds up with a nomination. But ultimately I expect the bulk of the nominees in this category to come from this spring's British imports The Audience and Wolf Hall, which feature expansive casts of men playing historical figures in high-minded dramas (re: Tony bait).

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

She can cook too! Alysha Umphress sizzles in John Rando's standout On the Town, a performance which practically demands a Tony nomination and eventual win.

#HildyNeedsaTony

That pretty much sums up my feelings about this year's Best Featured Actress in a Musical Race, as the sensational Alysha Umphress essentially steals On the Town away from her multiple, extremely talented costars. There are few things on Broadway right now more joyous and entertaining than her innuendo-laden "I Can Cook Too," and her magnetic smile and heaven-sent voice make it virtually impossible to look away whenever she's on stage. Literally everyone I know who's seen the show has walked away in love with Umphress, and it would be absolutely unacceptable if she wasn't nominated.

That said, let's talk about Elizabeth Stanley! Umphress' On the Town costar is absolutely astounding as the buttoned up Claire, charting one of the show's biggest character arcs with warmth, grace, and a gorgeously full soprano. Stanley is just as deserving of a nomination as Umphress, and I sincerely hope she is remembered during the nominations process. You also have to at least consider Megan Fairchild for her breathtaking ballets in the same show (as Karine Plantadit proved in 2010, exquisite dancing can net one a Tony nomination). And while I found Jackie Hoffman's On the Town schtick to be a tad strained, there is a lot of love for the longtime scene stealer who has somehow never been in the running for Broadway's highest honor; many feel she's overdue for at least a nomination, and this could finally be the year she gets one.

Clearly, you could almost fill this category solely with On the Town actresses, although I doubt that will actually happen. I consider Umphress and Stanley the safest bets, and they will most likely be joined by Honeymoon in Vegas' Nancy Opel. Like Hoffman, I found Opel's turn to be distractingly too over the top, but many, many reviews heaped praise upon Opel and I wouldn't begrudge her a nomination. Regardless, at this point the award is Umphress' to lose, and I'm not sure my brain could even comprehend the level of brilliance that would be required to wrest it from her.

Best Featured Actress in a Play

After finally breaking through in the Tony-winning Kinky Boots, Annaleigh Ashford gives another abashedly loony performance in this fall's You Can't Take It With You. 

I fully expect at least one of the supporting actresses from The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time to make an appearance in this category, although I'm torn as to whether it will be Francesca Faridany or Enid Graham. Faridany is a more prominent and consistent maternal presence throughout the play, but Graham has the kind of heartwrenching scenes that scream "Tony Award," making it possible both actresses wind up among this year's nominees. There is also a strong likelihood previous nominee Annaleigh Ashford makes another trip down the Tony red carpet for her delightfully daffy dancer in You Can't Take It With You.

While no means assured, this category likely represents box office sensation It's Only a Play's best shot at an acting nomination, with Stockard Channing's booze addled diva one of that misguided production's few highlights. Channing also appears content to stick with the production until its early June closing, which means she will be actively performing when Tony voters are making their final decisions, which is always beneficial and an opportunity very few of this fall's actresses will have. For instance, The Elephant Man's Patricia Clarkson will have to rely on costar Bradley Cooper's high profile to keep that production alive in voters' minds, and while Martha Plimpton is in the running for her work in the soon to shutter A Delicate Balance, I'm doubtful many will remember the low buzz show past its closing date.


And there you have it. Those are my extremely early thoughts on this year's major Tony races, all of course subject to change based on the strength or weakness of this spring's offerings. A lot can change between now and late April, and you can bet I will be here through all of it. Stay tuned!

Also, don't forget to check out the rest of my current Tony coverage:

Tony Awards Rule Change
Extremely Early Tony Predictions: Part I
Extremely Early Tony Predictions: Part II

2012 Tony Predictions - Best Actor

Here we are at the end of the acting categories.  Before I start making Best Actor predictions, I want to remind you of my two caveats:  1) I have not necessarily seen all of the nominees; and 2) I am prediction who will win, which is not always the same as who should win.

Best Actor in a Play

Nominees:  James Corden, One Man, Two Guvnors; Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Death of a Salesman; James Earl Jones, The Best Man; Frank Langella, Man and Boy; John Lithgow, The Columnist

I don’t mean to sound disrespectful of their work, but as far as this season is concerned past winners James Earl Jones, Frank Langella, and John Lithgow are essentially also-rans in a two person Tony race.  Jones received solid reviews for his work in The Best Man, but that show is more of an ensemble piece than a star vehicle, and having a star vehicle is a virtual prerequisite to winning the Best Actor trophy.  Langella’s Man and Boy definitely qualifies as a star vehicle, but outside of his performance the production was dismissed by critics.  It also closed by mid-October and hasn’t been discussed since, leaving Langella without the necessary momentum needed to secure a Tony statuette.

John Lithgow is in a better position than either Jones or Langella, in that The Columnist is a currently-running star vehicle from a well-respected author.  Unfortunately, the deluge of late-April openings resulted in The Columnist getting lost in the shuffle, and many found the play to be serviceable but disappointing given the talent involved (Lithgow is a past Tony winner, and playwright David Auburn is a Tony and Pulitzer Prize winner).

That leaves us with James Corden and Phillip Seymour Hoffman, both of whom have a lot going in their favor.  One Man, Two Guvnors seems to be this season’s British Sensation, the imported new play that has critics practically falling over themselves to praise it.  Corden himself has received plenty of accolades his physically demanding performance, and recent Tony history shows a strong voter bias toward English-bred actors.  However, that same history also shows a bias towards big name Hollywood talent in revivals of classic plays, which perfectly describes Hoffman.  Death of a Salesman is one of the most critically and commercially successful productions of the season, something that couldn’t have been achieved without a commanding central performance.  While I haven’t personally seen Corden, I have trouble imagining him topping Hoffman’s devastating turn in Arthur Miller’s classic, and I suspect Tony voters will feel the same way.

Will and Should Win:  Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Death of a Salesman

Best Actor in a Musical

Nominees:  Danny Burstein, Follies; Jeremy Jordan, Newsies; Steve Kazee, Once; Norm Lewis, Porgy and Bess; Rob Raines, Follies

Unlike their play counterparts, the Best Actor in a Musical nominees are much more evenly matched.  There isn’t a clear-cut front runner, and an argument could be made for any of these fine actors to win the big prize. All of that said, I think we can safely rule out both Norm Lewis and Rob Raines.  I have always felt Lewis’ abilities as an actor have been underrated, and I’m happy to see him receive his first Tony nomination for his accomplished work in Porgy and Bess.  That said, his is by no means the strongest performance of the bunch, and he’s greatly overshadowed by costar Audra McDonald, who from day one has been at the center of all that particular revival’s press coverage. 

Similarly, while Rob Raines did some excellent work in Follies, it did not reach the giddy heights of his costar and fellow nominee Danny Burstein.  Unlike last year, when Andrew Rannells and Josh Gad were so equally matched in The Book of Mormon that they effectively canceled one another out, popular opinion has clearly favored Burstein over Raines.  Anyone who wants to see a Follies win in this category will certainly vote for Burstein.

Jeremy Jordan is technically nominated for Newsies, but I think it’s safe to assume his is a blanket nomination for both that show and his work earlier this season as one of the title characters in Bonnie & Clyde.  Jordan is the hot young talent of the season, and though his work in Newsies isn’t as psychologically complex or emotionally mature as his competition, it is everything you could reasonably expect in a lighthearted show whose sole purpose is to entertain.  The road producers who usually vote for more commercially viable fare will want to ensure Newsies ends up with enough wins to sound impressive in an ad campaign, and Jordan could easily reap the benefits of their Tony love.

Steve Kazee is something of a wildcard.  On the one hand, he is giving a very moving performance in the most critically lauded new musical of the season, and the buzz around Once certainly isn’t hurting his chances.  On the other, for whatever reason the critical love of Once doesn’t quite extend into recognition for its cast (Kazee and costar Cristin Milioti were both conspicuously absent from the Drama Desk nominee list).  Because it is a new work and not a known property, I think some people are overlooking how much of the show’s success is due to its leads, instead of being wholly generated by the very strong book and score. 

I’d say the two gentlemen most likely to hear their name called on Tony night are Danny Burstein and Jeremy Jordan.  Burstein deserves the award for his revelatory and heart-breaking performance in Follies, a production the entire theatrical community went gaga over last fall and will certainly want to see recognized.  Burstein’s role is the hardest of the show’s central quartet to make interesting, making it all the more impressive that he ended up being one of the best parts of that much celebrated production.  But Jeremy Jordan has had a star-is-born season, and the Tonys love to celebrate talented newcomers as much as seasoned pros.  As much as I loved Burstein (I've been saying he needs to win this award since September), I am starting to suspect that this is Jordan's year.

Will Win:  Jeremy Jordan, Newsies
Should Win:  Danny Burstein, Follies

That’s all for the acting awards.  The only predictions I have left to make are the production categories, so look for my picks for the season’s best revivals soon!

In the meantime, here are the rest of my Tony prediction articles in case you missed them:

Best Actress

Best Featured Actor
Best Featured Actress
Best Book and Score
Best Direction and Choreography

Tony Watch: Assessing the 2011-2012 Broadway Season Part 5

Broadway's Newsies prepared to karate kick the competition, thus ensuring it's place as King of New York

With only one week left before Tony nominations come out, we have to move right along with our assessment of this season’s shows.  First up:

Newsies

Disney claims that it never intended to bring Newsies to Broadway, and that they are just blown away by the support their show has received.  I think that’s bullshit, and is part of their clever plan to position the show as this season’s Tony underdog when it is actually the odds-on favorite. 

After all, the show has all the hallmarks of a Best Musical winner (a category it will assuredly be nominated in).  It’s an old-fashioned song and dance spectacle with just enough depth to keep adults engaged while omitting anything truly challenging or unpleasant, making it perfect family fare.  The Tony voters who are also producers of regional touring houses – a sizeable contingent of the total voting body – will want to capitalize on this appeal by awarding the show with as many statuettes as possible, allowing them to advertise the eventual tour as the “Tony-winning Broadway musical” and ensuring that it makes them a boatload of money.

If Once is this year’s Critics’ Darling, Newsies is the clear Commercial Success, which more often than not wins the big awards.  And while Newsies is in no way groundbreaking, it is constructed with enough competence to net Best Book and Best Score nominations among this year’s weak crop of new shows.  Christopher Gattelli’s athletic choreography, the production’s highlight, will surely be nominated and heavily featured during the show’s Tony telecast performance.  Another likely nominee is Tobin Ost’s for his multi-tiered set, inventively configured into an endless array of interconnected platforms and stairways over the course of the show.

The acting categories will be tougher for Newsies to crack, with one notable exception, whose name is Jeremy Jordan.  As newsboy Jack Kelly, Jordan is delivering a star-making turn that definitely land the gifted young performer a Best Actor nomination.  His onstage love interest, Kara Lindsay, would be wise to take a page from Nikki M. James’ book and submit herself in the supporting category, allowing her to avoid directly competing with Tony favorites like Audra McDonald and Kelli O’Hara.  If she does go the supporting route, her charming work should be enough to net this Broadway newcomer a Best Actress nomination, further strengthening the show’s real life Cinderella narrative.

The Best Man

This show’s Tony prospects are difficult to pin down.  Although many reviewers admitted the play’s subject matter remains topical, the consensus seems to be that we didn’t really need another revival of this work having just seen a production back in 2000.  In a crowded year for plays, that could be enough to knock the show out of the Best Revival race.

On the other hand, most critics jumped at the chance to see so many theatrical tyrants in one place, regardless of the quality of the material.  Any opportunity to see greats like Angela Lansbury and James Earl Jones practice their craft is cause for celebration, and the excitement of having them back onstage could lift the show into contention for the big prize.  Lansbury and Jones, both of whom have multiple Tonys to their name, will surely be nominated again in the Supporting categories.  And in such a busy season, two high profile nominations is nothing to be ashamed of.

End of the Rainbow

By all accounts, this play about the final months of Judy Garland’s life is nothing special, at least from a scripting standpoint.  Despite the Tonys’ love for all things British (this production comes straight from the West End), I think that disappointment is enough to keep End of the Rainbow out of the Best Play or Direction categories.  But from the time it was announced, this show has clearly existed only to highlight the extraordinary talents of star Tracie Bennett, who has generated the kind of raves most actors only dream about.  An assured Best Actress nominee, I think Bennett and her producers will be just fine with their single nomination.

Evita

Broadway was clearly ready for the return of Eva Peron.  Evita is currently doing stellar business at the Marquis Theatre, routinely landing among the top grossing Broadway shows alongside established mega-hits like Wicked and The Book of Mormon.  Critical reaction to the show proved mixed, although there were generally more positives than negatives, with Evita being deemed one of Andrew Lloyd Webber’s better works.  That should be enough, when combined with the show’s clear commercial potential, to earn it one of the coveted Best Musical Revival slots.

Leading lady Elena Roger is an awards conundrum.  Before the show opened, she seemed like a shoe-in for a Best Actress nomination; her performance was critically heralded in London, and Eva is certainly the kind of role that earns you awards consideration.  Unfortunately, Roger really isn’t up to the vocal demands of the role (more than one reviewer compared her singing unfavorably to Patti LuPone’s iconic belting), although she does have some lovely character moments.  I’m not ready to give Roger’s Best Actress nomination to someone else, although if her name isn’t among those called next Tuesday I won’t be terribly surprised.

Michael Grandage deserves a Best Director nomination for his expert staging of the piece, which unlike Roger did manage to avoid comparisons to the Broadway original.  And choreographer Rob Ashford has been nominated for much worse work than his work here, and a Best Choreography nod would be an excellent way to recognize its strengths.  Given the amount of money spent on this revival, the Sets, Lights, and Costumes are all viable contenders for nomination slots as well, as expensive physical productions always do well in those categories.  And finally, the always reliable Michael Cerveris will hopefully be rewarded with a Best Supporting Actor nomination for his excellent portrayal of Juan Peron, a role that would be utterly forgettable in a lesser actor’s hands.

Be sure to check back throughout the rest of this week for more Tony talk, and then again after May 1^st to hear my reaction to the big day.

For more a look at the other shows that opened this season and where they stand in the Tony rankings, check out these past articles.

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

Part 4