2012 Tony Predictions - Best Revival

Now that we’ve discussed the creative categories and the acting nominees, all that’s left to predict are the production awards.  These awards are arguably the most prestigious, as theatre is a collaborative medium and a production win is an acknowledgement of excellent in all aspects of a particular show.  As I prepare to predict the season’s best revivals, please keep in mind my two caveats: 1) I have not necessarily seen all of the nominated productions; and 2) I am predicting who will win, which is not necessarily the same as who should win.  Any discrepancies in the two will be discussed in the body of the article.

Best Revival of a Play

Nominees:  Death of a Salesman, The Best Man, Master Class, Wit

Master Class is an extreme long shot in this category, as it opened and closed during the summer of 2011.  Tony voters have notoriously short memories, and given the sheer number of shows that have opened since then, Master Class should consider itself lucky for having been nominated at all.  It is particularly telling that the production’s star, Tyne Daly, failed to receive a Best Actress nomination despite her much ballyhooed turn as opera diva Maria Callas in a piece that is essentially a one woman show with interruptions. 

Wit suffers from a less severe version of the same problem.  Historically, winning a Best Revival trophy has been very difficult when a show isn’t being performed nightly to remind voters how good it is, and Wit has been closed for months.  Cynthia Nixon’s Best Actress nomination proves the show is still present in people’s minds, but despite being highly regarded I don’t think the production as a whole made enough of an impression to secure a Best Revival win.

The Best Man has the distinction of being the only nominated revival that is still running, an invaluable asset in any Tony race.  Unfortunately, it also received the least encouraging reviews of the bunch.  While many critics praised the star-studded cast, they found the show itself a tad slow, indicating that for whatever reason the individual performances aren’t adding up to a satisfying whole.  A show perceived as a disappointment, whether due to unreasonably high expectations or actual shortcomings, rarely wins the big awards.

I think Death of a Salesman will easily win Best Revival tonight.  The play is an acknowledged masterpiece, and you couldn’t ask for much better material.  But rather than rest on their laurels, Mike Nichols and his entire team pushed themselves to deliver the most universally praised revival of the year.  The presence of Oscar-winner Phillip Seymour Hoffman made the show a box office bonanza, and the level of buzz surrounding the production was deafening.  Critical acclaim, a towering central performance by an A-list celebrity, and box office success amount to a Tony-winning trifecta, and I would be shocked to see anything other than Salesman win this award.

Will and Should Win:  Death of a Salesman

Best Revival of a Musical

Nominees:  Evita, Follies, Porgy and Bess, Jesus Christ Superstar

The Tonys have often been accused of being too commercially-minded, favoring box office success over artistic merit.  While there is certainly some truth to this (producers of touring houses make up a large percentage of Tony voters, and they want to be able to book Tony-winning shows that will also make them lots of money), the revival categories seem to be less prone to this phenomenon.  That is why I think despite Evita’s enormous financial success, it has very little chance of winning the big prize.  This current revival has been unfavorably compared to memories of the original 1979 production.  Leading lady Elena Roger has proven to be a divisive Eva, and I would agree with the many audience members who feel her voice simply isn’t up to the challenge of Andrew Lloyd Webber’s demanding score.  Despite a visually stunning physical production and top-notch direction by Michael Grandage, this Evita lacks spark, and has been deemed a disappointment by many of the show’s fans.

The other Lloyd Webber revival of the season, Jesus Christ Superstar, is a much stronger contender.  Though Superstar is far inferior to Evita as a piece of musical theatre writing, director Des McAnuff and his team have polished it to a high gloss.  The end result, which wisely emphasizes the pseudo-love triangle between Jesus, Judas, and Mary, is so good that it managed to win me over despite my deep dislike of Lloyd Webber in general and Superstar in particular.  It helps that McAnuff cast leads that are actually capable of handling the insane vocal demands of the score, but Superstar’s low number of overall nominations indicates it will have a tough time winning against its stiff competition.

The real contenders here are Follies and Porgy and Bess, two fantastic shows which have received first rate productions.  The Stephen Sondheim revival boasted an impeccable cast, a sumptuous physical production and excellent direction, and I truly believe that it will be talked about for years to come as a definitive version of that landmark show.  While there is much to love about Porgy, including an astounding central performance by the incomparable Audra McDonald, purists have been vocally upset about director Diane Paulus’ retooling of a four hour opera into a two-and-a-half hour musical.  Even though Porgy is still running (a major advantage for any Tony-nominated production), I expect the ire over Paulus’ judicious cuts to keep it from taking the big prize, which is as it should be.  Follies was a truly transcendent theatrical experience, and deserves to be recognized as the best revival of the season.

Will and Should Win:  Follies

The only races left to predict are the two biggest, Best Play and Best Musical.  Stay tuned for my thoughts on each, and catch up on the rest of my Tony predictions in the meantime:

Best Actor

Best Actress
Best Featured Actor
Best Featured Actress
Best Book and Score
Best Direction and Choreography

Tony Watch: Assessing the 2011-2012 Broadway Season Part 5

Broadway's Newsies prepared to karate kick the competition, thus ensuring it's place as King of New York

With only one week left before Tony nominations come out, we have to move right along with our assessment of this season’s shows.  First up:

Newsies

Disney claims that it never intended to bring Newsies to Broadway, and that they are just blown away by the support their show has received.  I think that’s bullshit, and is part of their clever plan to position the show as this season’s Tony underdog when it is actually the odds-on favorite. 

After all, the show has all the hallmarks of a Best Musical winner (a category it will assuredly be nominated in).  It’s an old-fashioned song and dance spectacle with just enough depth to keep adults engaged while omitting anything truly challenging or unpleasant, making it perfect family fare.  The Tony voters who are also producers of regional touring houses – a sizeable contingent of the total voting body – will want to capitalize on this appeal by awarding the show with as many statuettes as possible, allowing them to advertise the eventual tour as the “Tony-winning Broadway musical” and ensuring that it makes them a boatload of money.

If Once is this year’s Critics’ Darling, Newsies is the clear Commercial Success, which more often than not wins the big awards.  And while Newsies is in no way groundbreaking, it is constructed with enough competence to net Best Book and Best Score nominations among this year’s weak crop of new shows.  Christopher Gattelli’s athletic choreography, the production’s highlight, will surely be nominated and heavily featured during the show’s Tony telecast performance.  Another likely nominee is Tobin Ost’s for his multi-tiered set, inventively configured into an endless array of interconnected platforms and stairways over the course of the show.

The acting categories will be tougher for Newsies to crack, with one notable exception, whose name is Jeremy Jordan.  As newsboy Jack Kelly, Jordan is delivering a star-making turn that definitely land the gifted young performer a Best Actor nomination.  His onstage love interest, Kara Lindsay, would be wise to take a page from Nikki M. James’ book and submit herself in the supporting category, allowing her to avoid directly competing with Tony favorites like Audra McDonald and Kelli O’Hara.  If she does go the supporting route, her charming work should be enough to net this Broadway newcomer a Best Actress nomination, further strengthening the show’s real life Cinderella narrative.

The Best Man

This show’s Tony prospects are difficult to pin down.  Although many reviewers admitted the play’s subject matter remains topical, the consensus seems to be that we didn’t really need another revival of this work having just seen a production back in 2000.  In a crowded year for plays, that could be enough to knock the show out of the Best Revival race.

On the other hand, most critics jumped at the chance to see so many theatrical tyrants in one place, regardless of the quality of the material.  Any opportunity to see greats like Angela Lansbury and James Earl Jones practice their craft is cause for celebration, and the excitement of having them back onstage could lift the show into contention for the big prize.  Lansbury and Jones, both of whom have multiple Tonys to their name, will surely be nominated again in the Supporting categories.  And in such a busy season, two high profile nominations is nothing to be ashamed of.

End of the Rainbow

By all accounts, this play about the final months of Judy Garland’s life is nothing special, at least from a scripting standpoint.  Despite the Tonys’ love for all things British (this production comes straight from the West End), I think that disappointment is enough to keep End of the Rainbow out of the Best Play or Direction categories.  But from the time it was announced, this show has clearly existed only to highlight the extraordinary talents of star Tracie Bennett, who has generated the kind of raves most actors only dream about.  An assured Best Actress nominee, I think Bennett and her producers will be just fine with their single nomination.

Evita

Broadway was clearly ready for the return of Eva Peron.  Evita is currently doing stellar business at the Marquis Theatre, routinely landing among the top grossing Broadway shows alongside established mega-hits like Wicked and The Book of Mormon.  Critical reaction to the show proved mixed, although there were generally more positives than negatives, with Evita being deemed one of Andrew Lloyd Webber’s better works.  That should be enough, when combined with the show’s clear commercial potential, to earn it one of the coveted Best Musical Revival slots.

Leading lady Elena Roger is an awards conundrum.  Before the show opened, she seemed like a shoe-in for a Best Actress nomination; her performance was critically heralded in London, and Eva is certainly the kind of role that earns you awards consideration.  Unfortunately, Roger really isn’t up to the vocal demands of the role (more than one reviewer compared her singing unfavorably to Patti LuPone’s iconic belting), although she does have some lovely character moments.  I’m not ready to give Roger’s Best Actress nomination to someone else, although if her name isn’t among those called next Tuesday I won’t be terribly surprised.

Michael Grandage deserves a Best Director nomination for his expert staging of the piece, which unlike Roger did manage to avoid comparisons to the Broadway original.  And choreographer Rob Ashford has been nominated for much worse work than his work here, and a Best Choreography nod would be an excellent way to recognize its strengths.  Given the amount of money spent on this revival, the Sets, Lights, and Costumes are all viable contenders for nomination slots as well, as expensive physical productions always do well in those categories.  And finally, the always reliable Michael Cerveris will hopefully be rewarded with a Best Supporting Actor nomination for his excellent portrayal of Juan Peron, a role that would be utterly forgettable in a lesser actor’s hands.

Be sure to check back throughout the rest of this week for more Tony talk, and then again after May 1^st to hear my reaction to the big day.

For more a look at the other shows that opened this season and where they stand in the Tony rankings, check out these past articles.

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

Part 4