2018 Tony Predictions: Best Featured Actress

Our 2018 Tony Award predictions continue, this time focusing on the Best Featured Actress nominees. Read on for my thoughts on who will win, who deserves to win, and at least one criminally overlooked actress!

Best Featured Actress in a Play

Noma Dumezweni (left) with Jamie Parker and Paul Thornley in Harry Potter and the Cursed Child.

Nominees: Susan Brown, Angels in America; Noma Dumezweni, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child; Deborah Findlay, The Children; Denise Gough, Angels in America; Laurie Metcalf, Three Tall Women

It is both interesting and somewhat distressing to note that with the exception of Metcalf, all of the actresses in this category hail from the UK, as do the productions for which they're nominated. While I'm not as concerned about the state of the Broadway play as some, it is disheartening to see the lack of home grown talent when it comes to plays on the Great White Way. Hopefully next season will see producers taking more chances on American-born plays and productions.

As for likely winners, Deborah Findlay is the longest shot here, having appeared in a long-shuttered play which got little Tony love (although The Children did manage to score a coveted Best Play nomination). Meanwhile, when it comes to the dual nominees from Angels in America, both roles offer such a wealth of acting opportunities I'm not sure how anyone can choose between them. Susan Brown tackles multiple roles, primarily that of an overbearing Mormon mother struggling to accept her closeted son, while Denise Gough plays her pill popping daughter-in-law. While I usually think the effect of vote splitting on Tony winners is marginal, the lack of a clear favorite leaves room for a neck and neck race to be overtaken by a third contender with just a few more votes.

Between her Tony win last year for A Doll's House Part 2, her Oscar nominated supporting turn in Lady Bird, and her return to her signature sitcom role of Aunt Jackie on the revival of Roseanne, it seems the entire world has remembered just how much they love the supremely talented Laurie Metcalf. She could well pull off a rare back to back Tony win with her supporting turn in Three Tall Women, a production the entire theatre community seems to adore. But I think Harry Potter and the Cursed Child's Noma Dumezweni will *just* edge out Metcalf and go home with a Tony to accompany the Olivier Award she won for the same role. Not only would a win for Dumezweni acknowledge her lauded performance as Hermione Granger, it would also be a strong statement in support of onstage representation and color conscious casting. (Despite JK Rowling's approval and the fact that Hermione's race is never explicitly referenced in the novels, some criticized the casting of a black actress as a character many had assumed was white, a notion reinforced by Emma Watson's portrayal of the character through 8 films.)

Will Win: Noma Dumezweni, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child
Should Win: Abstain

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

Lindsay Mendez as Carrie Pipperidge in Carousel.

Nominees: Ariana DeBose, Summer: The Donna Summer Musical; Renee Fleming, Carousel; Lindsay Mendez, Carousel; Ashley Park, Mean Girls; Diana Rigg, My Fair Lady

Not to take anything away from the nominated performers, but it's safe to say this category did not turned out quite as expected. Dame Diana Rigg is a treasure and Broadway is lucky to have her, but her inclusion for the relatively minor, non-singing role of Mrs. Higgins in Lincoln Center's My Fair Lady has raised more than a few eyebrows. I also question the inclusion of Mean Girls' Ashley Park at the exclusion of her hilarious, scene stealing costar Kate Rockwell, whose dimwitted Karen is the most consistently hysterical performance on Broadway right now. (Fans of reckless belting are also bummed at the exclusion of Barrett Wilbert Weed's Janice from the same show, but in that case I can see why she didn't quite make the cut.)

In fact, while all supremely talented, all of the nominated women also have some big hurdles to clear. Ariana DeBose's star has been steadily rising the past few seasons as an original cast member of first Hamilton and then A Bronx Tale, but the only musical this season critics seemed to hate more than Summer is the unnominated Escape to Margaritaville. Rigg will have to overcome the prejudice against being nominated in a musical acting category despite not singing a note, which while technically allowed does seem to be against the spirit of the award. Both Renee Fleming and Lindsay Mendez are doing admirable work in a divisive revival of Carousel; some folks loved it, others - like me - found it to be an admirable but ultimately flawed production of a problematic show. And Park's more nuanced turn in a musical primarily known for over the top musical comedy could either be an asset or a hindrance depending on how many voters expect all actors in comedies to be laugh out loud funny.

Despite having to compete with the memory of Audra McDonald in her breakthrough role, Mendez seems like the most likely victor. She is a well-liked member of the community who has admirably adapted her very contemporary quirkiness and vocal pyrotechnics to the traditional leanings of the Rodgers and Hammerstein revival, and aside from leading man Joshua Henry she is the most consistently strong part of the show. (Fleming's masterful rendition of "You'll Never Walk Alone" is worth the price of admission alone, but her serviceable dialogue scenes don't feel quite strong enough to justify a win.) Park is the next most likely winner, and I can even see Tony voters opting for a surprise win for DeBose, but as of now this is Mendez's race to lose.

Will Win: Lindsay Mendez, Carousel
Should Win/Should Have Been Nominated: Kate Rockwell, Mean Girls


Keep checking this space for more 2018 Tony Award predictions in the weeks ahead! In the meantime, make your voice heard in the comments, and check out the rest of my Tony coverage by clicking below:

Tony Nominations React
Book and Score
Direction and Choreography
Featured Actor

2017 Tony Award Predictions: Best Featured Actress

We are fast approaching Broadway's biggest night, which means I will continue my annual tradition of predicting Tony winners! Using a combination of personal opinion, critical praise, and industry buzz, I will do my best to pick the people and productions who will be honored by the American Theatre Wing on June 11th. And if the person who *will* win doesn't match up with who I think *should* win, I will be sure to mention it in my analysis.

On to the Best Featured Actress races!

Best Featured Actress in a Play

Condola Rashad (right) and Laurie Metcalf in A Doll's House, Part 2.

Nominees: Johanna Day, Sweat; Jayne Houdyshell, A Doll's House, Part 2; Cynthia Nixon, The Little Foxes; Condola Rashad, A Doll's House, Part 2; Michelle Wilson, Sweat

Two different productions have produced multiple nominees in this category, which if you subscribe to the idea of vote splitting means that The Little Foxes' Cynthia Nixon should be the winner by default. And while that is a possibility, it seems unlikely to me, as Nixon has far buzz than her costar Laura Linney. They may not be competing in the same category, but thanks to the production's repertory conceit they are playing the same roles, and the consensus seems to be that Linney is better at both of them.

A Doll's House, Part 2 gives us the higher profile names, as both Jayne Houdyshell and Condola Rashad are well established in the New York theatre scene. Houdyshell just won this award last year, and while winning back to back Tonys is not unheard of (just ask Judith Light), I would be surprised to see the veteran actress take the trophy home again this year. Her costar seems a far more likely winner, having been nominated for three of her four Broadway outings without winning. Tony voters clearly like Rashad, and the fact that she's in the most nominated play of the season certainly doesn't hurt her chances. It is entirely possible Sweat's Johanna Day or Michelle Wilson pull off an upset, but this feels like Rashad's year to me.

Will Win: Condola Rashad, A Doll's House, Part 2
Should Win: Abstain

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

Stephanie J Block in Falsettos.

Nominees: Kate Baldwin, Hello, Dolly!; Stephanie J. Block, Falsettos; Jenn Colella, Come From Away; Rachel Bay Jones, Dear Evan Hansen; Mary Beth Peil, Anastasia

What a category! This is probably the most competitive of the musical acting races, as the nominees here gave what may be scene for scene the best performances of the season. The only scenario I simply can't envision is Mary Beth Peil winning for Anastasia, a musical that didn't really set critics or Tony voters on fire. And while it's not impossible that a swell of love for Hello, Dolly! brings Kate Baldwin to the winner's podium, it is improbably, as the awkwardly written role doesn't do the delightful soprano any favors (no matter how lovely her rendition of "Ribbons Down My Back" might be).

This is really a three way race between Stephanie J. Block, Jenn Colella, and Rachel Bay Jones, an embarrassment of riches that we are lucky to have. Block was by far the best thing about Falsettos, a fascinating portrait of a regular woman struggling to hold on to her sanity after her entire life is upended when she learns her husband is gay. A beloved member of the Broadway community who has yet to win the coveted Tony Away, Falsettos is Block's best work to date, as evidenced by the thunderous applause which greeted her big solo every evening.

Rachel Bay Jones also plays a mother struggling to keep her head above water in Dear Evan Hansen, and her layered portrayal acknowledges Heidi Hansen's flaws while also celebrating her bravery and humanity. Jones' performance of the Act II ballad "So Big/So Small" is simply devastating thanks to her emotional honesty and vulnerability, and by the end of the song you want her to be your mother as well. It's a very difficult act to compete with, which is why I think she will ultimately win over Block and the winsome, inspiring Jenn Colella, who's powerhouse performance of "Me and the Sky" in Come From Away is one of the most thrilling musical moments of the season.

Will Win: Rachel Bay Jones, Dear Evan Hansen
Should Win: Stephanie J. Block, Falsettos (but make not mistake, Jones is phenomenal and more than earns this award)

Check back over the next week for the rest of my Tony predictions, including the Lead Actor/Actress races and the all important Best Musical category. Until then, share your own thoughts in the comments, and catch up with the rest of my 2017 Tony coverage below:

Nominations React
Best Book and Score
Best Direction and Choreography
Best Featured Actor

2016 Tony Awards Predictions: Best Featured Actress

The 2016 Tony Awards get closer every day, and we are now deep into my annual prediction article series. Having already tackled some of the behind the scenes races and the Featured Actors, today the hardworking Featured Actresses get their time in the spotlight. As always, I will do my best to predict who is the most likely to win, and if I feel another individual is more deserving than the likely winner I will make sure to point them out. Read on to find out my thoughts on some of this year's most exciting races!

Warning: Occasional snark and plenty of speculation to follow!

Best Featured Actress in a Play

Megan Hilty and her plate of sardines in Roundabout's Noises Off.

Nominees: Pascale Armand, Eclipsed; Megan Hilty, Noises Off; Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans; Andrea Martin, Noises Off; Saycon Sengbloh, Eclipsed

This category is stacked with some amazing talent, to the point where it would be difficult to argue against any of the nominated actresses winning. When you have a category where two-time Tony-winner Andrea Martin appears to be the least competitive entrant, you know you are dealing with some amazing performances.

Personally, my money is on Megan Hilty, who took the same general outline that helped Annaleigh Ashford win this category last year (quirky oddball character in an ensemble farce) and turned it up to 11, resulting in one of the most consistently side-splitting performances I've ever seen. Every single gesture and inflection of Hilty's was perfectly calibrated for maximum comedic effect, and I don't think a performer has generated a higher number of belly laughs on Broadway since the original company of The Book of Mormon. Both Pascale Armand and Saycon Sengbloh are excellent in Eclipsed, and I would be genuinely happy for either actress to win, but I suspect this is a case where vote splitting actually will make both performers less competitive than they would be if either had been nominated on their own. And while I suspect many people have a deep respect for Jayne Houdyshell's nuanced, naturalistic performance in The Humans, I think Hilty generated more excitement in a role that seems to scream Tony Award.

Will & Should Win: Megan Hilty, Noises Off

Special Mention: Saycon Sengbloh, Eclipsed

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

Renee Elise Goldsberry as Angelica Schuyler in Hamilton

Nominees: Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple; Renee Elise Goldsberry, Hamilton; Jane Krakowski, She Loves Me; Jennifer Simard, Disaster!; Adrienne Warren, Shuffle Along

With all due respect to the other nominees, there is a runway favorite in this category, and her name is Renee Elise Goldsberry. The actress is simply sensational as the fiercely independent Angelica Schuyler in Hamilton, whether she's encouraging her sisters to "work" during "The Schuyler Sisters" or trying to entice Hamilton away from said work during "Take a Break." And her showstopping, jaw dropping performance of "Satisfied" is absolute perfection, the kind of legendary turn that recalls what it must have been like to witness Audra McDonald sing "Your Daddy's Son" in the original company of Ragtime.

That is not to say the other actresses aren't deserving. Adrienne Warren is a standout during her two big numbers in Shuffle Along, and gains extra points for the role being such a complete 180 from her last Broadway appearance in Bring It On. I have long admired Jane Krakowski for her impeccable comedic timing on the TV shows 30 Rock and Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, and she demonstrates an unbelievable range of emotion and skill during her supporting turn in Roundabout's enchanting revival of She Loves Me. I will admit to being less taken with Danielle Brooks' somewhat one-note performance in The Color Purple, but the actress is undeniably talented and certainly earned her place among this year's nominees. And while I didn't see Jennifer Simard in Disaster, the video of her final performance making the rounds proves that she was a force to be reckoned with. In another year, any of these women might be a front runner, but this year it is all about Goldsberry.

Will & Should Win: Renee Elise Goldsberry, Hamilton

Special Mention: Jane Krakowski, She Loves Me

Agree? Disagree? Let me know in the comments, and be sure to check back soon for my thoughts and predictions on the Best Actor and Actress races. Plus, catch up on the rest of my 2016 Tony Award coverage by clicking on the links below:

Nominations React

Best Book and Score

Best Direction and Choreography

Best Featured Actor

2016 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part III (Supporting Actor/Actress)

Tomorrow morning, we find out the people and productions that will compete for the 2016 Tony Awards. And as always, I am leading up to that day with plenty of blog coverage on who I think those lucky nominees will be. Using a combination of first hand experience, analysis of industry trends, and my gut feelings, I have already made my predictions for the production and lead actor/actress categories. Today, it's time to tackle some of the most wide open races around, the Featured Actor and Actress categories.

Prediction these nominees is always tricky, as almost anyone who sets foot on a Broadway stage is eligible. Past winners have run the gamut from dynamic one scene wonders like Andrea Martin in Pippin to people who are essentially secondary leads like Aladdin's James Monroe Iglehart. In general, more stagetime makes someone more competitive - they have more time to show range and make a lasting impression - and this year there are a slew of contenders in this category who do just that (including the entire casts of the highly praised The Humans and Noises Off). 

If any acting race is going to expand to a potential six or seven nominees, my gut tells me it will be one of these, which is why in addition to my official picks I will also be choosing one or more wildcard performers in each category, representing who I think is most likely to prompt an expansion or unseat one of my official picks. Now read on to see who I think should starting thinking about what they're going to wear to Broadway's biggest night!

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Daveed Diggs (left) with Hamilton creator and star Lin-Manuel Miranda during one of the show's exciting "Cabinet Battles."

This category is looking like a potential bloodbath, with a huge number of worthy performances up for consideration. This is one area where Hamilton's massive success may actually hurt it, as the various supporting players in that musical could cancel one another out. I have the best feeling about Daveed Diggs' scene-stealing duel roles as Marquis de Lafayette and Thomas Jefferson in the hip-hop musical, but can't rule out Jonathan Groff's extremely memorable comedic performance as the foppish King George III.

In a similar situation, there are four past Tony-nominees/winners eligible for this award among Shuffle Along's star-studded cast, and I wouldn't be surprised to see any of them among this year's nominees. Word on the street indicates that Billy Porter has the kind of standout moment that gets Tony voters' attention late in the show's second act, so I would say he is the most likely to make the cut. But Brian Stokes Mitchell is one of the most respected musical theatre actors in the business, and his status as something of an elder statesman also makes him extremely competitive.

Personally, I would love to see The Color Purple's Isaiah Johnson nominated for his nuanced portrayal of the villainous Mister, but there's so much buzz around the show's flashier female performances that he might get lost in the shuffle. She Loves Me counts past Tony favorites Gavin Creel and Michael McGrath among its cast members, both of whom are certainly possibilities, although given his Drama Desk and Theatre World Award nods young Nicholas Barasch may just be the most likely Tony nominee among the beloved revival's male supporting players. Waitress' Christopher Fitzgerald has also done extremely well when it comes to guild nominations, well enough that I expect him to be among the five (or more) names announced Tuesday morning.

Nominees

Nicholas Barasch, She Loves Me

Daveed Diggs, Hamilton

Christopher Fitzgerald, Waitress

Jonathan Groff, Hamilton

Billy Porter, Shuffle Along

Wildcard

Isaiah Johnson, The Color Purple

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Michael Shannon in Roundabout Theatre Company's revival of Long Day's Journey Into Night.

Given the number of one and two character plays that made it to Broadway this season, this category is surprisingly light on potential nominees. One actor certain to be among this year's contenders is The Human's Reed Birney, a performer most had assumed would be moved up to the Lead Actor category given the size of his role. Having such a large amount of material to work with gives him an advantage, as does his status as a highly respected character actor who continually does acclaimed work. I will also be surprised if Michael Shannon doesn't receive a nod for his heroic work in Long Day's Journey Into Night, with the mercurial actor showing an incredible amount of range over the course of that drama's four hour runtime.

Literally every male cast member of Roundabout's Noises Off is eligible in this category, and a case could be made for any of them. Jeremy Shamos and Rob McClure, both past Tony-nominees, were each fantastic in their roles, as was David Furr with his hilarious take on the play's bumlbing leading man. I'm almost tempted to say all three make the cut and call it a day, but given The Crucible's Bill Camp and Jim Norton scoring Drama Desk and Outer Critics Circle nominations respectively, that seems unwise. One of the Crucible men will probably make the cut, although which one is a complete toss up.

Nominees

Reed Birney, The Humans

David Furr, Noises Off

Jim Norton, The Crucible

Jeremy Shamos, Noises Off

Michael Shannon, Long Day's Journey Into Night

Wildcard

Rob McClure, Noises Off

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

Renee Elise Goldsberry as Angelica Schuyler, the "oldest and wittiest" of the Schuyler sisters in Hamilton.

Unlike their male counterparts, the noteworthy supporting actress performances in this year's musicals are more evenly distributed over multiple productions, placing fewer cast members in direct competition with one another. At this point, I would consider She Loves Me's Jane Krakowski and The Color Purple's Danielle Brooks sure things, as they have been on essentially every Featured Actress in a Musical list up until this point. I also consider Hamilton's Renee Elise Goldsberry a virtual lock for her absolutely transfixing performance as Angelica Schuyler; her performance of the song "Satisfied" alone is the stuff Tony-winning performances are made of, and the fact she has several other standout moments throughout the show just increases the strength of her case.

Personally, I would really really love to see Lesli Margherita nominated for her star-making performance in Dames at Sea, but I'm not sure people still remember that show even happened. Meanwhile, Waitress is one of the few shows to have multiple candidates in this category, and although neither Keala Settle or Kimiko Glenn have appeared on any end of season lists just yet I do suspect Tony voters will be smitten with the show and its performers.

This year may also see the first career Tony nomination for longtime New York City musical stalwart Andrea Burns, one of the few people in On Your Feet called upon to actually act as opposed to just being a charming personality. Sierra Boggess has always been more popular with audiences than with awards granting bodies, but the competition in this category is just thin enough that she might sneak in there for her work in School of Rock. And as the recipient of an Outer Critics Circle nod in this category (no small feat considering both Broadway and Off-Broadway performances are eligible), American Psycho's Helene York cannot be left out of the conversation.

Nominees

Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

Renee Elise Goldsberry, Hamilton

Jane Krakowski, She Loves Me

Lesli Margherita, Dames at Sea

Keala Settle, Waitress

Wildcards

Sierra Boggess, School of Rock
Helene York, American Psycho

Best Featured Actress in a Play

Megan Hilty as Brooke, the bad actress trying her best to be good in Noises Off.

In my opinion, the woman to beat in this category right now is Megan Hilty. Her side-splittingly funny work in Noises Off was the greatest thing about that top-notch revival, and her role in the show practically screamed Tony Award (Katie Finneran won the Tony for playing the same role in the show's last Broadway mounting). That is not to say Hilty is without competition, as Eclipsed presents three worthy challengers in the form of Saycon Sengbloh, Pascale Armand, and Zainab Jah. I personally found Sengbloh to be the most compelling, but Armand's deft transitions between high comedy and devastating emotional honesty could give her the edge in many people's eyes. Of course, this is all a conversation for another day, as I fully expect all three women to be nominated against Hilty.

The only real question here is which actress will get the fifth nomination slot. It could go to one of Hilty's costars, as both Andrea Martin and Kate Jennings Grant were pitch perfect in Roundabout's farce. I'd actually give the edge to Grant, whose slooooow crawl across the stage to remove an errant prop is one of the greatest bits of physical comedy I have ever seen, but I suspect if forced to choose the nominations committee will stick with Tony favorite Martin instead. One also can't rule out Judith Light for her work in Therese Raquin, especially since she is one of the very few performers to pull off back to back Tony wins (and in this same category, no less). If the Noises Off ladies cancel one another out, Light will definitely be the beneficiary.

Nominees

Pascale Armand, Eclipsed

Megan Hilty, Noises Off

Zainab Jah, Eclipsed

Andrea Martin, Noises Off

Saycon Sengbloh, Eclipsed

Wildcard

Judith Light, Therese Raquin

And that completes my predictions for this year's Tony nominees! We'll see how well I did come Tuesday morning, and in the meantime you can add your thoughts in the comments. Also, don't forget to check out the rest of my 2016 Tony coverage:

2016 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part I (Production)

2016 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part II (Actor/Actress)

2015 Tony Predictions: Best Featured Actress

As the 2015 Tony Awards creep ever closer, my annual predictions have now entered the Big 12 categories. The 8 acting and 4 production awards seem to be the most coveted of all Tonys, particularly from an advertising perspective. They also tend to provoke the most speculation and lead to the closest races of any given season, and this year's crop of nominees is no different. While doing my best to predict who will actually win, I will also be sure to point out if I think there is a more deserving performer in danger of being overlooked. Of course, anything can happen on Tony Sunday (the Featured categories are a hotbed for surprise nominees and winners), but as of right now, here are my best guesses as to who will go home victorious on June 7th.

Warning: Occasional snark and plenty of speculation to follow.

Best Featured Actress in a Play

Lydia Leonard (right) with fellow Tony nominee Ben Miles in the Royal Shakespeare Company's Wolf Hall.

Nominees: Annaleigh Ashford, You Can't Take It With You; Patricia Clarkson, The Elephant Man; Lydia Leonard, Wolf Hall Parts I & II; Sarah Stiles, Hand to God; Julie White, Airline Highway

Just like their male counterparts, this season's Featured Actress in a Play nominees find themselves in a wide open race. As with her costar K. Todd Freeman, I think Julie White will be severely handicapped by the fact that Airline Highway has almost no awards momentum (it failed to make the cut for Best Play); also, as a previous Tony winner White may be held back by voters who prefer to spread the love. Meanwhile, while Sarah Stiles has one knockout scene in Hand to God along with several supporting bits, I expect her to be overlooked in favor of an actress whose role is a little more fleshed out.

Annaleigh Ashford was hysterical in last fall's You Can't Take It With You, and the widely publicized story of how she performed on pointe despite breaking her toe during rehearsals will certainly earn her some brownie points. But Ashford's show opened and closed a long time ago, a major handicap I don't think her well-liked performance can quite overcome. She is still a dark horse candidate, but I think her chances would be greater if the show had lasted until March or April rather than early February.

Patricia Clarkson and Lydia Leonard are in the best position here, as although they are competing in the "Featured" category both are in practice the female leads of their respective shows (a situation that helped The Book of Mormon's Nikki M. James win her Tony Award back in 2011). Clarkson's show has been closed since mid-February, but thanks to the buzz surrounding Bradley Cooper's performance as the titular Elephant Man I expect most voters saw and remembered her performance. But Lydia Leonard is a Shakespearean actress in a critically acclaimed, two part period drama which provides her nearly twice the material as any of her competitors, which is a pretty hard combination to beat. I expect this is ultimately her race to lose.

Will and Should Win: Lydia Leonard, Wolf Hall Parts I & II


 

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

Judy Kuhn (left) and fellow Featured Actress Tony nominee Sydney Lucas in the Broadway transfer of Fun Home.

Nominees: Victoria Clark, Gigi; Judy Kuhn, Fun Home; Sydney Lucas, Fun Home; Ruthie Ann Miles, The King and I; Emily Skeggs, Fun Home

It's lovely Victoria Clark has received her fourth career Tony nomination this year (even if I personally would rather have seen On the Town's Alysha Umphress in this spot). That said, I don't think she has a snowball's chance in hell of actually winning, with the main question in this race being whether or not the three Fun Home actresses cancel one another out and allow Ruthie Ann Miles to complete the ultimate Cinderella story and win a Tony Award for her Broadway debut.

Pitting the Fun Home actresses against one another forces voters to pick a favorite, something that is incredibly difficult and will likely split votes. Judy Kuhn, Emily Skeggs, and young Sydney Lucas all do fantastic work in the chamber musical, each providing some excellent scene work capped off by the score's three best songs (Kuhn's "Days and Days," Skeggs' "Changing My Major," and Lucas' "Ring of Keys"). The incredibly talented Lucas has one of the largest and most important roles in the show, as her scenes with Michael Cerveris form the dramatic crux of the evening and the key to understanding both characters. But Kuhn is practically a theatrical institution, with three previous nominations but no wins to her name, and although her character doesn't say much the actress makes every syllable count. Furthermore, her interpretation of the aforementioned "Days and Days" is some of the most accomplished musical acting currently on Broadway.

In fact, Kuhn is probably the biggest threat to Miles, and I can honestly see the race going either way. Unfortunately the other theatrical awards don't provide much insight into how voters may be leaning, as Kuhn's award-winning work in Fun Home's Off-Broadway production last season made her ineligible this year, clearing the way for Miles to win an Outer Critics Circle Award earlier this month. I personally would favor Miles, as her "Something Wonderful" is every bit as marvelous as Kuhn's big number, with the added bonus that Miles has comparatively more to do and imbues every move her character makes with a multitude of meanings. But if the industry's already established love of Kuhn leads to them honoring the Broadway veteran with her first Tony Award, I couldn't reasonably complain.

Will Win: Judy Kuhn, Fun Home
Should Win: Ruthie Ann Miles, The King and I


And that wraps up my predictions for the Featured performances, which are the categories that usually bring down my batting average on Tony night. Check back on Friday as I begin to tackle the Lead Actor and Actress categories. You can also catch up on all my previous Tony coverage below, and be sure to check back every Monday and Friday from now until the telecast for more updates!

Nominations React
Best Book and Score
Best Direction and Choreography
Best Featured Actor

2015 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part IV (Featured Actor/Actress)

Every year I make a ton of Tony nominee predictions, and every year I struggle over whether to include the Featured Actor and Actress categories. These are often the hardest categories to get a read on before the nominations come out, since most performances in a given season fall under the Featured umbrella. Making things even more complex this year is the fact that these categories can now include anywhere from five to seven nominees, and I expect we'll see several of these races expand past the traditional five performer cap.

I'm basing a large portion of these predictions on speculation and gut feeling, as I unfortunately have not seen anywhere near all the eligible performances. I will also be predicting at least one Wildcard nominee in each category in an attempt to cover my bases in case the nominations committee decides to forgo the obvious candidates. Check back Tuesday afternoon to see how I did!


Best Featured Actor in a Play

Nathaniel Parker (right) as King Henry VIII, the source of all the trouble in the Royal Shakespeare Company's transfer of Wolf Hall.

The large number of ensemble plays this season makes this category a virtual nightmare to predict, especially since it lacks any obvious frontrunners. The smart money says at least some of Wolf Hall's sprawling ensemble makes the cut, probably from among the plays' key players like Nathaniel Parker's Henry VIII or Paul Jessen's multiple clergymen. Fellow West End import The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time will also likely produce a competitor in this category, with Ian Barford's beautiful complex portrayal of the protagonist's father a prime candidate for recognition. And while Helen Mirren is the undisputed star of The Audience, she wouldn't be able to give the performance she does without help from all those prime ministers she interacts with; Mirren's star wattage will almost surely lift a costar or two into consideration (perhaps Dakin Matthews' Winston Churchill or Rufus Wright's Tony Blair).

Last fall's You Can't Take It With You was filled with memorable supporting turms, chief among them James Earl Jones as the Sycamore family patriarch. Jones is a very strong candidate for a fourth career nomination, and I also have a fairly good feeling that Bryce Pinkham will be making a return trip to the Tony red carpet for his role in The Heidi Chronicles (Boyd Gaines won a Tony for playing Pinkham's role in the play's original production). Hand to God was so well received that the industry's love of the boundary pushing play could translate into multiple acting nominations, although in all honesty both of the male supporting players pale in comparison to the brilliance of leading man Steven Boyer. Marc Kudish is respected enough among his peers that it could bolster his chances, even if his role as the local pastor is mostly reactionary. And while it's not inconceivable that one of the supporting players in It's Only a Play could get nominated, I do think it unlikely, as Nathan Lane's lead performance was the only one of any note in that revival.

Nominees
Ian Barford, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time
James Earl Jones, You Can't Take It With You
Marc Kudish, Hand to God
Nathaniel Parker, Wolf Hall
Bryce Pinkham, The Heidi Chronicles

Wildcard
Paul Jessen, Wolf Hall


Best Featured Actress in a Play

Annaleigh Ashford has no vanity when it comes to the characters she plays, as proven by this charming photo from You Can't Take It With You.

This is still a wide open category, although with a few more safe bets than the Featured Actor race. I will be shocked if Annaleigh Ashford doesn't get nominated for her delightfully daffy ballerina in You Can't Take It With You, and I think there is a good chance she will be joined by her costar and onstage mother Kristine Nielsen. You Can't Take It With You also featured a textbook definition of a scene-stealer in Julie Halston, whose Tony worthiness can be summed up in two words: the stairs. (If you didn't see the show, Halston turned an almost entirely wordless drunken climb up the set's staircase into a showstopping moment). And as the most prominent female presence in critical darling Wolf Hall, Lydia Leonard is in a very good position to find her name listed among the nominees on Tony Tuesday.

I adored Francesca Faridany in Curious Incident, with her soothing motherly presence serving as the perfect counterpoint to the play's frantic portrayal of an autistic youth's journey of self-discovery. But her equally strong costar Enid Graham's role calls for more obvious "acting," and if only one of these ladies makes the cut it will likely be Graham. This category is also It's Only a Play's best chance at scoring an acting nomination, as Stockard Channing's fading diva was the revival's funniest and most effective performance after leading man Nathan Lane. Fish in the Dark, Broadway's other star-studded ensemble comedy, could also find itself represented here thanks to the performances of Rita Wilson (who is unfortunately on medical leave from the production but is scheduled to return soon after nominations are announced), Rosie Perez, and Jayne Houdyshell. This is a close race that will benefit from the committee's ability to nominate more than five performances, although I doubt the votes will be *quite* close enough to force an expansion to the maximum seven.

Nominees
Annaleigh Ashford, You Can't Take It With You
Stockard Channing, It's Only a Play
Francesca Faridany, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time
Enid Graham, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time
Julie Halston, You Can't Take It With You
Lydia Leonard, Wolf Hall

Wildcard
Kristine Nielsen, You Can't Take It With You
Rita Wilson, Fish in the Dark


Best Featured Actor in a Musical

I'll be honest: while I enjoy him, I don't *quite* get the unabashed love for Christian Borle (center), a major contender for this year's awards thanks to his over the top performance in Something Rotten!

This is a very competitive category, as many of the season's big musicals have multiple performances worthy of inclusion here. If the other industry awards are anything to go by, Something Rotten! will be the show to beat this season, and will surely produce at least one Featured Actor nominee. Conventional wisdom says it will be Christian Borle's preening, pompous Billie Shakespeare, although I personally preferred the hammy antics of Brad Oscar as the soothsayer who suggests creating a musical in the first place. Not only does Oscar feel like he's in the same show as everyone else (Borle's collection of tics, while very funny, often make is seem like he's wandered in from a different production), but Oscar also leads the showstopping "A Musical" number that the company will almost surely perform on this year's Tony telecast. I suspect both men will find themselves nominated on Tuesday morning.

Last fall's On the Town also produced a pair of Tony-worthy performances from sailors Jay Armstrong Johnson and Clyde Alves. If only one of these gentlemen makes the cut, my money is on Johnson, whose incredibly endearing Chip also benefits from having one of this season's best scene partners, Alysha Umphress' sensational Hildy. From the spring shows, Andy Karl makes quite an impression as Kristin Chenoweth's buffoonish boy toy in On the Twentieth Century, and has thus far been rewarded with Featured Actor nominations in the various guild awards. I strongly suspect the Tony committee will follow suit, making Karl one of the relatively rare back-to-back acting nominees. And while Doctor Zhivago received some of the harshest reviews of the season, I wouldn't be surprised if Paul Alexander Nolan's supporting turn in that show nets him some Tony love, as he was one of the overblown epic's few highlights. And finally, as recipients of both Drama Desk and Outer Critics Circle nominations, It Shoulda Been You's Josh Grisetti and An American in Paris' Max von Essen are very strong contenders that I would be surprised to see excluded from this year's proceedings.

Nominees
Christian Borle, Something Rotten!
Josh Grisetti, It Shoulda Been You
Jay Armstrong Johnson, On the Town
Andy Karl, On the Twentieth Century
Brad Oscar, Something Rotten!
Max von Essen, An American in Paris

Wildcard
Paul Alexander Nolan, Doctor Zhivago


Best Featured Actress in a Musical

Alysha Umphress in On the Town #HildyneedsaTony

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Hildy needs a Tony. I firmly believe that had On the Town opened during the spring glut of shows and was therefore fresh on everyone's mind, Alysha Umphress would be this year's James Monroe Inglehart (re: the clear frontrunner). But Umphress has done shockingly poorly in this year's guild awards, which makes me seriously question her chances at even a nomination, let along a win. Her costars Megan Fairchild and Elizabeth Stanley have both been nominated for other awards, and could potentially edge Umphress out here, particularly the sublime Stanley. I still think Umphress has a good shot at the nomination, but she is not a sure thing and will have an uphill battle if she wants to take home the actual trophy.

Fun Home's Judy Kuhn, however, is pretty close to a sure thing, even if her immense talent is underutilized by Jeanine Tesori and Judy Kuhn's chamber musical. I also think the love for Something Rotten! will spread to industry favorite Heidi Blickenstaff, similarly underutilized but benefiting from being the largest female presence in this spring's industry darling. The King and I's Ruthie Ann Miles is *not* underutilized, but her performance is so compelling that you still want more of her deliciously complicated Lady Thiang. It's quite an accomplished Broadway debut for the actress and will almost assuredly lead to a Tony nomination for the captivating performer, who made a splash in the Public Theatre's Here Lies Love back in 2013.

Conventional wisdom indicates that at least one of the many supporting players in It Shoulda Been You gets nominated in this category, although the community's love of both Tyne Daly and Harriett Harris isn't quite strong enough to grant either one of them an automatic nomination, especially in a field as crowded as this one. A similar logic applies to Victoria Clark in Gigi and Nancy Opel in Honeymoon in Vegas, both well-liked talents whose respective shows don't have a lot of momentum headed into Tony Tuesday. And On the Twentieth Century's Mary Louise Wilson is also in contention for her daffy supporting turn as a religious widow, meaning this is really anyone's race.

Nominees
Heidi Blickenstaff, Something Rotten!
Judy Kuhn, Fun Home
Ruthie Ann Miles, The King and I
Elizabeth Stanley, On the Town
Alysha Umphress, On the Town

Wildcard
Tyne Daly, It Shoulda Been You


And so concludes my nomination predictions for the 2015 Tony Awards. Tomorrow morning at 8:30 am we'll find out how well I did, and check back tomorrow afternoon to see my gut reactions to this year's nominations. Then strap in for an exciting month of speculation, coverage, and maybe even an extra review or two as we march towards this year's ceremony on June 7th! Until then, you can catch up on what you missed below:

Tony Rule Change
Nominee Predictions: Production
Nominee Predictions: Best Actor
Nominee Predictions: Best Actress

2014 Tony Predictions: Best Featured Actress

In my last post we discussed the supporting men, and today we discuss the supporting women who are up for Tony Awards in just a couple weeks' time.  Predicting these two categories will be tough, as both races are pretty wide open at the moment.  And then you have to take into account that the actress who should win is not always the person who will when, which throws another wrench into any sort of speculation.  But I am nothing if not persistent, so read on to see my best guesses for this year's big winners.

Best Featured Actress in a Play

The always charming Celia Keenan-Bolger was ideally cast as Laura in The Glass Menagerie, even if director John Tiffany let her down with some of his more bizarre choices.

 

Nominees: Sarah Greene, The Cripple of Inishmaan; Celia Keenan-Bolger, The Glass Menagerie; Sophie Okonedo, A Raisin in the Sun; Anika Noni Rose, A Raisin in the Sun; Mare Winningham, Casa Valentina

Many deserving women are nominated in this category, but at the same time there aren't any that seem to demand Tony recognition.  The Cripple of Inishmann, despite positive reviews and the presence of Daniel Radcliffe in the title role, has proven to be a bit of a non-event in terms of box office and awards potential.  That will hurt Sarah Greene's chances, along with the fact that her character comes across as a tad two-dimensional due to the broad nature of playwright Martin McDonagh's script.  A Raisin in the Sun's Sophie Okonedo and Anika Noni Rose will likely cancel one another out, with the final nail in the coffin being the lukewarm critical reception to that revival in general.  Okonedo is not entirely out of the picture, although she does face the significant handicap of playing the same role Audra McDonald inhabited to Tony-winning effect only 10 years ago.

Mare Winningham of Casa Valentina has been this season's stealth awards contender.  She didn't receive a lot of attention when the Harvey Fierstein dramedy opened last month, but has been a regular fixture on Best Supporting Actress lists and won the Outer Critics Circle Award for her work in the show.  She is probably Celia Keenan-Bolger's biggest competition, although the latter drew universal praise for her lonely, damaged Laura in last fall's The Glass Menagerie.  This is Keenan-Bolger's 3rd career nomination, and she still has a lot of goodwill left from her equally praised turn in Peter and the Starcatcher 2 years ago, which only increases her chances of finally winning.  I'm going to give the slightest of edges to Keenan-Bolger, but she and Winningham are so neck and neck that this is almost too close to call.

Should Win:  Toss-up between Mare Winningham (Casa Valentina) and Celie Keenan-Bolger (The Glass Menagerie)
Will Win:  Celia Keenan-Bolger, The Glass Menagerie                                                                     

 

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

Ingenues are deceptively simply roles to play.  With the wrong actress, they become boring or even worse, obnoxious.  Thankfully Lauren Worsham manages to avoid both of those pitfalls while looking absolutely *fabulous* in her Edwardian hat.

 

Nominees: Linda Emond, Cabaret; Lena Hall, Hedwig and the Angry Inch; Anika Larsen, Beautiful: The Carole King Musical; Adriane Lenox, After Midnight; Lauren Worsham, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder

This is certainly an eclectic group of nominees.  Lena Hall does a lot with very little in Hedwig and the Angry Inch, but in this case I think the nomination is the win, and would be very surprised if she was actually called up to the podium on June 8th.  Adriane Lenox is the only previous winner in this group, and although she nails her two big numbers in After Midnight I suspect Tony voters will opt to spread the wealth.  And Anika Larsen is a complete wildcard; despite Beautiful's clutch of nominations I don't consider it to be a serious contender for most awards, but the sheer number of nominations for a show with such a small amount of buzz (despite steadily strong box office) means it must have impressed a lot of people.  Larsen may reap the benefits of that love, especially since Beautiful's subject matter allows her to do more serious "Acting" than many of the nominees in this category.  (Even in musicals, there's the usual awards bias towards dramatic roles, even if it is less pronounced than in plays or film.)

Linda Emond probably deserved to win for her long-suffering wife in the Phillip Seymour Hoffman-led Death of a Salesman (writing these predictions, I'm realizing just how much I disagree with the way the 2012 Tony Awards turned out).  Although I haven't personally seen the show yet, I'm sure Emond is excellent in Roundabout's resurrected Cabaret, but the Tony committee's distaste for that production is probably her biggest stumbling block.  Which leaves us with newcomer Lauren Worsham, who is making a sensational Broadway debut in A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder.  Like 2011 winner Nikki M. James, Worsham plays the reliably winsome ingénue in a comedy dominated by two hilarious men, and like James, I think Worsham's ability to turn a potentially boring part into a fully formed, believable character will net her Tony gold this year.

Should Win:  Linda Emond, Cabaret
Will Win:  Lauren Worsham, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder

That takes us through all of the Featured categories; check back soon for my predictions for Best Actor and Actress.  And in the interim, check out the rest of my 2014 Tony Awards coverage below!

2014 Tony Nominations React
Best Direction and Choreography
Best Book and Score
Best Featured Actor

2014 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part IV (Featured Actor/Actress)

I've already gone into great detail about the productions and leading actors/actresses I expect to wake up to good news on Tuesday morning.  (Sidenote: why on earth are Tony nominations announced so early when the people they're honoring typically don't go into work until 6 pm or later?)  Now I'm going to attempt the most difficult predictions of all:  the Featured Actor and Actress nominees.

Why are these categories so hard to predict?  Because whereas the production and lead actor categories have a relatively limited pool of eligible nominees, almost everyone who sets foot on a Broadway stage is could conceivably be nominated in the Featured categories, which makes narrowing things down much more difficult.  Historically, this is also the area with the biggest number of "surprise" nominations for people who weren't on anyone's radar.  (Did you know who Elizabeth A. Davis was before the 2012 Tony nominations?  Do you know who she is now???)  But using my time honored combination of first hand experience, industry buzz, and gut feeling, I'm making predictions anyway, including at least one Wildcard per category that could potentially unseat one of my official guesses.

Best Featured Actress (Play)

Oscar-nominee Sophie Okonedo will probably be able to add "Tony nominee" to her resume after tomorrow's nominations are announced.

The sure-bet here is Celia Keenan-Bolger for her Laura in last fall's acclaimed The Glass Menagerie.  She will certainly be joined by at least one of the ladies from A Raisin in the Sun, although at this point deciding between Sophie Okonedo and Anika Noni Rose feels arbitrary.  Okonedo got slightly more rapturous reviews, although she is also playing the same role that won Audra McDonald the Tony only ten years ago, which is a mighty powerful memory to overcome.  Rose is a previous Tony winner and is playing the one female role which wasn't honored with an award the last time around, so recognizing her would allow Tony voters to feel less like they're repeating themselves.  There's also the very real possibility the committee will double down and nominate both women, which is what my gut is telling me at this moment.

After that, things get harder to predict.  Andrea Martin just won the Tony last year, but that hasn't mattered much to voters recently (see Judith Light's back-to-back wins), and the committee tends to be impressed by actors tackling multiple roles like Martin does in Act One.  Although I have not personally seen or even heard much buzz about Casa Valentina, Mare Winningham recently scored herself an Outer Critics Circle nomination for her work in that Harvey Fierstein play, which makes her a contender here as well.  And there is the dim but still possible chance that Jayne Houdyshell is remembered for her role as the Nurse in the ill-fated Romeo & Juliet revival from last fall; she did manage to beat out all of her Follies costars a couple of years ago, although that show was much better liked than Romeo.

Nominees:
Celia Keenan-Bolger, The Glass Menagerie
Andrea Martin, Act One
Sophie Okonedo, A Raisin in the Sun
Anika Noni Rose, A Raisin in the Sun
Mare Winningham, Casa Valentina

Wildcard:
Jayn Houdyshell, Romeo & Juliet

Beat Featured Actor (Play)

Honestly, any of the men from last fall's Twelfth Night are worthy of a Tony nominations, although it is Mark Rylance (left) and Paul Chahidi (second from left) who have the greatest chance of actually being recognized.

Have they gone ahead and engraved this award with Mark Rylance's name yet?  They might as well, because his buzzed about Olivia in Twelfth Night was such a master class in acting I cannot imagine anyone else wresting this category away from him.  His nomination is a sure thing, and I actually have a very good feeling about his co-star Paul Chahidi being recognized as well for his outstanding Maria.  Chahidi took a role that typically feels more like a narrative device and turned it into a fully fledged, entirely winsome character, and I believe he will be rewarded for it.  My gut is also telling me that Brian J. Smith will complete The Glass Menagerie's hat trick of garnering nominations for the entire cast in all four acting categories.

I'm at a loss as to who else will be competing in this category; there is no shortage of eligible nominees thanks to the abundance of male-dominated plays this season.  Billy Crudup inexplicably scored a Tony nomination for the 2011 revival of Tom Stoppard's Arcadia despite being atrocious in the role; could a similar outcome greet his performance in Waiting for Godot?  Bobby Steggert is giving one of his most naturalistic performances yet in Mothers and Sons and isn't entirely out of the running, although that show is primarily viewed as a Tyne Daly vehicle.  Going back to the Shakespeare plays, Stephen Fry was roundly praised for his Malvolio in Twelfth Night, although having three nominees from the same show seems like a bit much.  All the Way's John McMartin landed among the Outer Critics' list of Best Featured Actors, and Casa Valentina's Reed Birney managed a similar feat with the Drama Desk awards, so both of those actors should be considered in the running as well.

Nominees:
Reed Birney, Casa Valentina
Paul Chahidi, Twelfth Night
Mark Rylance, Twelfth Night
Brian J. Smith, The Glass Menagerie
Bobby Steggert, Mothers and Sons

Wildcard:
Stephen Fry, Twelfth Night

Best Featured Actress (Musical)

I had a snappy caption for this photo of Marin Mazzie as Helen Sinclair, but the Bullets Over Broadway star very specifically instructed me not to speak.

Being ruled a featured actress instead of a lead is the best thing that could have happened to Marin Mazzie this year, as moving her into this less competitive category virtually guarantees a nomination for her boozy diva in Bullets Over Broadway.  And it would take quite an unexpected turn of events to keep Linda Emond out of the running for her Fraulein Schneider in Cabaret (who really deserved to win for her stellar performance in Death of a Salesman, so the committee kind of owes her).  There's also a guaranteed nomination in the cards for one of A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder's ladies, even though in my ideal world both Lisa O'Hare and Lauren Worsham would be recognized for their outstanding work.  If only one can make the cut, my money is on O'Hare, whose upwardly mobile Sibella Hallward is the more interesting of the two characters since she subverts the typical ingénue troupes. 

Conventional wisdom holds that at least one more female from Bullets Over Broadway will get nominated, although whether it ends up being rising star Betsy Wolfe or Helene York's ditzy blonde is a toss up.  York is more of an unknown, and considering how much Tony voters love a good Cinderella story, York may benefit from their desire to try and crown a new star.  I also think Adriane Lenox has a strong chance at a nomination for her work in After Midnight, a prospect helped by the fact that she is the highest profile stable element of the show (she's been with the production since the beginning, while the Guest Star slot gets a new performer every month or two).  And finally, Anika Larson has scored both a Drama Desk and Outer Critics Circle nomination for her work in Beautiful, which makes her a major contender for Tony recognition as well.

Nominees:
Linda Edmond, Cabaret
Anika Larson, Beautiful
Adriane Lenox, After Midnight
Marin Mazzie, Bullets Over Broadway
Lisa O'Hare, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder

Wildcards:
Lauren Worsham, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
Helene York, Bullets Over Broadway

Best Featured Actor (Musical)

"Friend Like Me" is the showstopper of the season, and James Monroe Iglehart is a large reason why it works as well as it does.  If that doesn't merit a Tony nomination, I don't know what does.

Like Best Featured Actor in a Play, there is a clear frontrunner for this award right now, and his name is James Monroe Inglehart.  His wisecracking Genie has made him the breakout star of Aladdin, with even the show's detractors admitting that Inglehart is the real deal.  His nomination is assured, and the only real question is who will be joining him.  Danny Burnstein seems like a sure thing for his performance as Herr Schultz in Cabaret; the fact that this Broadway stalwart has not been rewarded with the industry's highest honor is a fact that needs to change sooner rather than later (I will forever maintain that he was ROBBED of the 2012 Best Actor Tony for his revelatory performance in Follies).  And Nick Cordero has been nominated for every acting award so far this season, so I'd consider the Bullets Over Broadway player another lock for a nomination.

As for the remaining two slots, it's really anyone's guess, as there has been no consistency among the nominees in the other awards-given bodies (which tend to lump Broadway and Off-Broadway performances together, meaning less Broadway talent makes the cut).  Could Jarrod Spector benefit from the theatrical community's increasingly warm feelings towards Beautiful?  Will Tony nominators remember Bobby Steggert's performance in Big Fish?  Will the good looking, big voiced Joshua Henry manage to get his second career Tony nod for his supporting work in Violet?  At this point a well-liked performer like If/Then's Anthony Rapp has a decent shot at nabbing a nomination despite being overshadowed by several of his costars in a show that the critics didn't much care for.  There is even the off chance that one of the men from Les Miserables makes the cut, although considering most of those performers are more singers than actors that could raise a few eyebrows.

Nominees:
Danny Burnstein, Cabaret
Nick Cordero, Bullets Over Broadway
Joshua Henry, Violet
James Monroe Inglehart, Aladdin
Jarrod Spector, Beautiful

Wildcard:
Bobby Steggert, Big Fish


Well, that caps off my 2014 Tony Awards predictions!  We'll find out how right (or wrong) I was when the official nominations are announced tomorrow morning, so check back in the next couple of days to see how I did.  Until then, you can read the rest of my Tony Awards coverage here:

2014 Tony Predictions Part I (Production)
2014 Tony Predictions Part II (Best Actress)
2014 Tony Predictions Part III (Best Actor)

Insanely Early 2014 Tony Predictions: Part III

I cannot speak for the rest of the country, but New York remains in the midst of a seemingly unending winter (and that damn groundhog thinks we have six more weeks of it left).  Broadway is deep in its winter doldrums too, with most of the splashy spring shows still in rehearsals before previews begin.  Which means that now is the perfect time to start handicapping this fall's productions for the upcoming Tony Awards!  You may think it's early, and it is, but what else are we going to talk about?  I've already given my thoughts on the productions and lead performances I consider well-positioned to score an eventual Tony nod, so now it's time to turn my same skills of unsubstantiated guesswork toward the featured performances.

For those who didn't read my last two posts, the rules for getting mentioned here are simple: the actor/actress must have made a major impression on the New York theatrical community.  As we have a whole slew of shows set to open during the spring, the only way any fall performance will be able to break into the crowded Featured Actor/Actress categories is via a universally praised turned.  As such, there are very few sure things in these categories, but that's not going to stop me from trying to pick the most likely nominees.

WARNING:  Occasional snark and wild speculation to follow.

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Of all Jefferson Mays' deliriously daffy characters in Gentleman's Guide, the racially insensitive Lady Hyacinth is easily my favorite.

A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder's Jefferson Mays is guaranteed one of the five slots in this category for his bravura turn as all eight members of the doomed D'Ysquith clan.  I'm a little surprised he wasn't upgraded to Lead Actor status, although I agree this category is where his roles, however showy, belong.  More confounding is the Tony committee's decision to consider his extremely talented costar Bryce Pinkham eligible in the same category despite the fact that Pinkham's upwardly mobile Monty Navarro forms the lynchpin of the entire evening.  I'm really hoping that Pinkham, who I found to be a sensational straight man and one of the purest tenors currently singing on Broadway, also scores a nomination for his work, but if the spring musicals are particularly strong he could find himself shut out by the flashier Mays.  And depending on how many fans Big Fish has on the Tony nominating committee, Bobby Steggert may find himself among the nominees as well.  Even that show's biggest detractors generally considered it to be well-acted, although I personally found Steggert to be the least memorable of the show's main trio.

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Game, set, and match, gentleman.  Mark Rylance's Olivia in Twelfth Night is quite possibly the performance of the season, and it's only February.

They might as well just go ahead and engrave this Tony with Mark Rylance's name, because he is going to win it.  Rylance's Olivia in the all-male Twelfth Night is the buzziest performance of the season thus far, and rightfully so.  He took the role in unexpectedly hilarious directions, downplaying the character's normal refinement and making her an overgrown child prone to hysterical tantrums.  Not only was this a new interpretation, but one that was fully supported by the text and went a long way towards making this the funniest production of Twelfth Night I have ever seen.  I also wouldn't be surprised to see any of Rylance's costars nominated in this category (I was particularly impressed by Paul Chahidi's Maria), but Rylance is the man to beat.  Among the fall's other offerings, I think The Glass Menagerie's Brian J. Smith stands as good a shot as any Gentleman Caller ever has of being recognized, and I think that much ballyhooed production is well positioned to perform the hat trick of getting a nomination in each of the four acting categories (although Smith is probably most in danger of being shut out).

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

"Long suffering wife" is a sure road to awards contention, and Kate Baldwin played it with unusual depth and sincerity.  (Bonus: her slow-motion dance during "Time Stops" was one of the most beautifully simply staging moments of the season.)

I'm rooting for Big Fish's Kate Baldwin to get some recognition for her sterling work in that production, her first Broadway outing since her star-making turn in Finian's Rainbow four years ago.  I think the fact that she was deemed a Featured Actress rather than a Lead actual works in her favor, as it keeps her out of the hotly contested Best Actress race.  I also think there is a good chance one of the lovely ladies from Gentleman's Guide joins her on the red carpet, although whether that is Lisa O'Hare or Lauren Worsham remains a toss-up at this point.  In fact, I would *love* it if both women wound up nominated, as that show and particularly it's second act wouldn't be nearly as good without them.  If I had to pick one, I would go with O'Hare, as her Sibella is a little more complex and fun that Worsham's doe-eyed and superbly sung Phoebe.  But Worsham is one of the most winsome and interesting ingénues of the past several seasons, which only reinforces my wish for both of them to score nominations.

Best Featured Actress in a Play



Celia Keenan-Bolger rose to fame in a couple of high profile musical roles, but it's her critically acclaimed turn as Laura in The Glass Menagerie that may finally bring this talented actress Tony gold.

As I've stated before, I expect this latest revival for The Glass Menagerie to do very well come Tony time despite my personal dislike of it.  I think Celia Keenan-Bolger is a sure thing for a nomination, and depending on how the spring season goes the twice-nominated actress may actually win her first award.  In fact, as of right now, she's the only actress I think is in serious contention for this award, as the fall plays were particularly male-heavy, what with the two all-male Shakespeares and the Pinter/Beckett rep plays starring four male actors each.


And that concludes my semi-annual Tony rant.  There are a lot of shows opening in the next few months, and I hope to see a good number of them so that I can provide you all with reviews.  Look for more Tony talk from me closer to the announcement of the nominees on April 29th, after which point I will likely be unable to talk about anything else until the awards are handed out on June 8th.