They've Got a Diverse Beat, and It's Mighty Catchy

Review: Head Over Heels

Bonnie Milligan and the cast of Head Over Heels.

On paper, Head Over Heels sounds like a recipe for disaster. A jukebox musical using the music of 80s new wave band The Go-Go's to adapt an obscure 17th century play called The Arcadia, it doesn't sound like the sort of thing Broadway is clamoring for. And yet through some kind of bizarre theatrical alchemy, these seemingly disparate parts coalesce into a show that isn't just a campy good time, but also one of the most refreshingly progressive shows on Broadway.

Set in the land of Arcadia, Head Over Heels opens with the kingdom's residents singing about how their mystical Beat is responsible for their continued prosperity and happiness (a conceit obviously designed to allow the show to open with one of The Go-Go's most recognizable hits, "We've Got the Beat"). All seems well and good until the land's new oracle Pythio predicts the impending loss of said Beat should four cryptic prophecies come to pass, most relating to the romantic couplings of the royal family. When the impetuous King Basilius decides to pack up the court - including his wife Gynecia and daughters Pamela and Philoclea - and go on the move in an attempt to prevent the prophecies coming true, a series of shenanigans and comic mistakes follows (many spurred by that old standby of 17th century comedy, cross dressing).

Pretty standard stuff for a pastoral comedy, made fresh thanks to some wonderfully inclusive story decisions and casting. Elder princess Pamela (newcomer Bonnie Milligan in a breakout performance) is universally acknowledged to be prettier and more desirable than her "plain" sister Philoclea (a winsome Alexandra Socha). Now it just so happens that Pamela is the more full-figured of the two, but never is her size the butt of a joke or played for laughs, nor does the tone of the show indicate that anyone is the slightest bit delusional for finding the big girl more attractive. Milligan, with her razor sharp comic timing and powerhouse voice, is a prime example of the kind of magic that can happen when casting directors are open to performers of all body types in all kinds of roles.

Another inclusive storytelling decision is the fact that Pythio is a gender nonbinary oracle who prefers to be addressed using they/them pronouns. Again, this is not something the show goes out of its way to comment upon or play for laughs, it is merely a fact everyone just rolls, including the use of their preferred pronouns. The role is played quite well by Peppermint of RuPaul's Drag Race fame, the first openly transgender woman to originate a role on Broadway. It is a boundary breaking act of representation made all the more powerful by treating it as no big deal, the way it should be in an ideal world.

Other progressive plot points include a lesbian romance (which prompts a visit to the Isle of Lesbos and a delightfully cheeky rendition of "Vacation"), a shepherd who starts cross dressing to get closer to his beloved princess and later discovers he kind of likes his drag persona, and a general acceptance of the idea that women are just as fit for rule as men, if not more so. It all combines to create one of the most queer-friendly shows to ever get a commercial Broadway run, an achievement to be celebrated and hopefully repeated in the future.

The performances are solid from top to bottom. While Milligan ultimately steals the show, she is given a run for her money by the equally hilarious Andrew Durand as the cross dressing shepherd Musidorus. Rachel York and Jeremy Kushnier do excellent work in the occasionally underwritten roles of the king and queen, with their firmly tongue-in-cheek rendition of "Heaven is a Place on Earth" an Act II highlight. Taylor Iman Jones provides some heart and a lot of vocal pyrotechnics as Pamela's handmaiden Mopsa, and Tom Alan Robbins understands exactly what's needed to make the role of the king's comical viceroy pop.

As the ringleaders of this delightfully campy circus, director Michael Mayer and choreographer Spencer Liff expertly juggle a lot of narrative and tonal balls to keep things moving along at a breezy pace. It helps that the book, adapted by James Magruder from Jeff Whitty's out of town libretto and concept, does a better job grafting The Go-Go's songs onto the narrative than it has any right to. And those numbers that are awkwardly shoehorned into the narrative are so enjoyable to watch thanks to Liff's high energy choreography and the Go-Go's catchy musical hooks that you'll hardly begrudge the show an occasional clunky segue.

There are certainly those who will find Head Over Heels to be too lowbrow for its own good, although those people would be willfully ignoring how bold a statement the show is making by putting underrepresented groups at the center of its narrative with such little fanfare. In a way, the fact that Head Over Heels is largely fluff and camp (and very entertaining fluff and camp at that) amplifies the power of its inclusion by positing a world in which everyone is just accepted as they are, without fanfare or grand proclamations of the value of diversity. For those who yearn for a more inclusive theatre, Head Over Heels is not only an opportunity to put their money where their mouth is, but also a campy night out in a world that could certainly stand an infusion of fun and fabulousness.

The Boy Who Lived, Now Thriving on Broadway

Review: Harry Potter and the Cursed Child

The cast of Harry Potter and the Cursed Child.

There is genuine magic occurring onstage at the Lyric Theatre, the freshly remodeled home to Broadway's latest box office juggernaut Harry Potter and the Cursed Child. And no, I'm not just referring to the play's myriad special effects, though rest assured the two part epic includes some of the most dazzlingly inventive magic tricks to ever grace the Great White Way. By using the time honored building blocks of plot, character, and interpersonal relationship, this continuation of the beloved book series conjures the kind of magic only possible through a shared experience, resulting in a mesmerizing production presented in a scale rarely if ever attempted in the theatre.

Before the show even begins, the sense of being transported to another place is palpable. The Lyric Theatre has undergone a multi-million dollar renovation in anticipation of its new tenant, a revitalization which elevates the space to a level of elegance and luxury unrivaled by any performance hall in town. There are lovingly crafted nods to author JK Rowling's fantasy world everywhere, from the Hogwarts insignia on the plush carpet to the phoenix-shaped wall sconces to the glorious library/study motif used at the bars and merchandise stands. Yes, the space's transformation is so complete that you actually feel privileged go hand over more of your hard earned cash for a souvenir (wands are predictably popular, though I opted for a snazzy magnet and beautiful souvenir program). By the time you take your seat in an auditorium that is much more intimate than its 1,622 person capacity would imply, you truly feel like you're in King's Cross Station waiting to board the Hogwarts Express, thanks in no small part to the subtle visual cues provided by the theatre's ornate ceiling and walls.

The story begins 19 years after Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, and is the officially sanctioned 8th installment of the Harry Potter saga (Rowling shares a "Story By" credit with director John Tiffany and the script's writer, Jack Thorne). Harry's youngest son, Albus Potter, is leaving for his first year at Hogwarts School of Witchcraft and Wizardy, and on the train ride there befriends Scorpius Malfoy, the son of Harry's old school rival Draco. Beyond that basic setup, you will get no plot hints from me; the cast and creatives have made it very clear they'd like audiences to #KeepTheSecrets, and going in unspoiled is truly the best way to experience the story's many twists and turns. That said, prior knowledge of Harry's world and the series' main plot points is certainly helpful, as Cursed Child is very much a sequel that builds upon seven novels' worth of Rowling's richly detailed setting and characters.

What can be said without giving too much away is that Thorne's script is excellent, both as a continuation of Rowling's narrative and as a piece of character driven drama. All the returning players feel at once familiar and different, believable aged two decades while retaining their core personality traits. The new characters seamlessly integrate into the Wizarding World, brimming with interesting and well defined complexities and quirks. Just as Rowling's novels ground their fantastical adventures with exploration of real world issues like grief and loss, Cursed Child also has plenty to teach us Muggles about how we navigate the real world. A central issue of the story is Harry and Albus' strained relationship, neither quite sure how to interact with the other as the former struggles with the great unknown of parenting while the later deals with the emotional minefield of adolescence. Albus and Scorpius share a deep bond and friendship, but like so many young men they are often uncomfortable and unsure of how to best express it. That Thorne can provide these kinds of smartly observed relationships amidst an expertly plotted and paced mystery yarn is a testament to his skill as a writer, and cuts to the core of why this series has remained so enduringly popular over the last 20 years.

The cast is uniformly excellent, although Cursed Child presents the unusual problem (for a play, at any rate) where revealing who some of the actors play could be considered a spoiler. But the appearance of Harry Potter is a given, and he is embodied by an exceptional Jamie Parker. In a pitch perfect performance that accomplishes the seemingly impossible, Parker is instantly recognizable as Harry, in manner as much as appearance (you won't make out the famed lightning scar from the back of the house). He not only imbues his world famous character with a fully realized depth and honesty, but does much of the drama's emotional heavy lifting in a way that will touch your heart whether you're new to the whole Potter phenomenon or have loved this character since you were a child.

Parker also shares an easygoing familiarity with Paul Thornley and Noma Dumezweni as Harry's best friends Ron and Hermione, a chemistry no doubt helped by their years' long journey with Cursed Child (the three actors all originated their roles in the West End premiere, to deserved acclaim). Thornley and Dumezweni are equally adept at walking the line between honoring their literary inspirations and making the roles their own, especially the commanding yet playful Dumezweni. The pair communicate volumes even when not speaking, and the only conceivable complaint about either performance is that you wish there was even more of it.

Others reprising their performances from the London mounting include Sam Clemmett and Anthony Boyle as Albus and Scorpius respectively. Their friendship is as central to the plot as Harry and Albus' father/son dynamic, and the young actors are expertly attuned to one another. Clemmett has the more demanding but less showy role as the somewhat sullen Albus, struggling to emerge from his famous father's shadow and establish his own identity. The play's true protagonist, Clemmett makes Albus easy to root for even when he's making the kind of questionable decisions all teen boys make. Boyle is delightfully idiosyncratic as Scorpius, a reliable source of comedic relief in a play which doesn't shy away from the darker implications of its narrative. Yet he is also capable of great pathos when necessary, and is the perfect compliment to Clemmett. Rounding out the group of transatlantic transfers are Poppy Miller and Alex Price as Ginny Potter and Draco Malfoy, both fantastic and in full command of their characters' respective arcs. They are joined by over 30 American actors in roles of all sizes, and while revealing who plays what will definitely spoil the fun suffice it to say they are all wonderful.

I have purposely held off on discussing the technical aspects of the production to emphasize that Harry Potter and the Cursed Child is great, satisfying theatre and not just empty spectacle. That said, the spectacle on display is several orders beyond anything else currently on Broadway. There are multiple jaw-dropping, awe-inspiring how'd-they-do-that moments that will take your breath away and fill you with childlike glee. The squeals of delight you hear from the audience are as likely to emanate from a gobsmacked adult as an enthralled child, for even if you figure out how an effect is achieved you still can't help but marvel at how seamless and artistic it looks. Jamie Harrison and Jeremy Chernick are credited with designing the illusions and special effects, and they have gifted us with feats unlike any Broadway has ever seen. The endlessly surprising sets (Christine Jones), beautifully detailed costumes (Katrina Lindsay), absolutely outstanding lights (Neil Austin), and immersive sound (Gareth Fry) all aid immeasurably in selling these many magical moments.

Playwright Thorne and director John Tiffany have wisely scattered these elements throughout the production. They save the biggest moments for the act breaks, which end on feats so ambitious and impressive that you will likely be too stunned to move when the house lights come up. (While tickets are rightfully scarce, if you can finagle a spot in the front mezzanine you are in for a truly mind-blowing sight at the end of Part 1.) As director and ringmaster, Tiffany deserves an extraordinary amount of credit for his ability to effectively corral the many moving parts into a beautifully paced evening that finds equal awe in the huge spectacle and more introspective moments. In the hands of Tiffany and his designers, the small effects are just as entrancing as the stage-filling showstoppers. By the time you add Imogen Heap's expansive underscoring, Cursed Child easily rivals the feeling of scale in the biggest Hollywood blockbuster.

Simply put, there is nothing on Broadway like Harry Potter and the Cursed Child; one could argue that there has *never* been anything like it. It is something that must be seen to be believed, a theatrical masterwork whose narrative combines both new and existing characters in a myriad of interesting, surprising ways. The cast is uniformly excellent, the technical elements the best in the business, and the direction and writing are just top notch. It is no mere play, but an experience that you will treasure long after it ends, something that works on multiple levels and can be equally enjoyed by young and old alike. Utterly deserving of every award and accolade it has received, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child is a once in a lifetime event that is the definition of must see theatre.

50 Years Old and as Fresh as Ever

Review: The Boys in the Band

From left to right: Charlie Carver, Andrew Rannells, Tuc Watkins, Jim Parsons, Robin de Jesus, Matt Bomer, and Zachary Quinto in The Boys in the Bands.

There is a moment in The Boys in the Band, Mart Crowley's groundbreaking 1968 play about a group of gay New Yorkers, where the men dial back their effeminate behavior to avoid upsetting a less-than-accepting party crasher. Watching the star-studded ensemble of openly gay actors subtly modify their body language, mannerisms, and vocal inflections in order to "pass" for straight is both breathtaking in its simplicity and profoundly moving, a wonderfully naturalistic moment that encapsulates everything that is exceptional about Joe Mantello's first rate production. These men - both the characters and the out and proud actors who portray them - are intimately familiar with that particular conflict between being your authentic self and trying desperately not to rock the boat for fear of retribution, and that bubbling undercurrent of internalized homophobia informs every aspect of Crowley's deceptively powerful script.

The premise of The Boys in the Band, like many great dramas before and after it, involves a group of people gathering together, drinking heavily, and proceeding to eviscerate one another while dealing with years of emotional baggage. In this case, the group is a collection of gay men throwing a birthday party for their friend Harold in the opulently appointed apartment of Michael. Initially a joyous if somewhat catty celebration - the men throw shade at one another with pinpoint accuracy thanks to Crowley's caustically funny one liners - things take a dark turn when Michael's possibly closeted college roommate crashes the party and takes offense at the blatantly fay behavior on display. When the mental stress causes a previously sober Michael to fall off the wagon, the claws come out and no one is safe from his unmitigated rage.

It is shocking how immediate and relevant Crowley's script remains a half century after its initial premiere, a fascinating example of both how much and how little has changed about gay culture in the intervening decades. Stonewall, the AIDS crisis, and marriage equality have all seismically altered gay life in America, and yet many of the issues facing the characters in Crowley's play are the same as those that gay men grapple with today. There's the self-loathing that comes from growing up in an environment that states, either implicitly or explicitly, that it would be better if you weren't gay, and the lifelong effect that has on one's ability to connect with other human beings. There's the question of what exactly a loving homosexual relationship should look like: should it mirror the monogamous template favored by heterosexual couples, or is an open arrangement that allows for other sexual partners a viable alternative? Does the constant belittlement gay men experience excuse their tendency to inflict the same kind of taunts on one another, and how is that compounded when discussing queer people of color?

All of these issued are embodied by an impeccably cast ensemble of top tier talent. Jim Parsons is close to a revelation as Michael, the party's host and evening's protagonist. While the play's opening scenes allow the Emmy-winning television star to rely mostly on the skills that have served him so well on The Big Bang Theory, once Michael turns to drink the actor goes into much darker and more surprising territory. The ferocity with which Parsons turns on his supposed friends is astounding, and like the characters in the play you find yourself becoming more and more terrified of the unbridled malice he displays. And when Michael finally crumbles under the weight of what he's done, Parsons bares his soul in a raw and emotionally devastating climax that will leave you stunned speechless.

Two-time Tony-nominee Robin de Jesus also shines as Emory, the most flamboyant and overtly femme member of the group. de Jesus is responsible for many of the evening's biggest belly laughs thanks to his impeccably timed delivery, but it's his gut wrenching monologue about Emory's difficult childhood that leaves the longest lasting impression. Tuc Watkins and Tony-nominee Andrew Rannells bring believable depth and complexity to their fraught onstage relationship as two men with very different ideas of what commitment looks like, a relationship which ends up being one of the more uplifting storylines of the evening. And in a less showy role, Matt Bomer makes a confident Broadway debut as Michael's sometimes-lover and the oft-ignored voice of reason.

Director Joe Mantello has once again worked his magic here, subtly but assuredly guiding his actors' performances so that every bit of stage business further reveals either character or plot. His beautifully understated direction belies the extreme specificity used to usher this work onto the Great White Way - the original production ran for over 1000 performances Off-Broadway, but this is the show's Broadway premiere - amping up the emotion while maintaining the intimacy and even claustrophobia necessary to make the drama really land. Mantello's pacing is first-rate, giving this intermissionless work room to breath without ever letting it drag, and cultivating an ever-growing sense of dread as both the audience and the characters realize they are getting far more than they signed on for. And the way Mantello deploys his actors over David Zinn's spectacularly varied unit set ensures the production is always a joy to look at (Zinn also designed the period-perfect and expertly tailored 1960s costumes).

Given the talent both onstage and behind the scenes, it isn't surprising that The Boys in the Band is one of the hottest tickets of the summer. It isn't even that surprising that the show's Broadway bow is so expertly realized. What is downright remarkable is that in its own way, this small show has as much to say about the gay experience in America as the recently closed and rightfully lauded epic Angels in America. It is a darkly comic drama polished to near perfection, and an absolutely necessary history lesson in gay culture and interpersonal dynamics. If there are still any tickets left for the remainder of The Boys in the Band's limited run, snatch them up quick; this is essential viewing.

2018 Tony Awards Final Thoughts

Well that certainly didn't go down as expected. The 2018 Tony Awards managed to be simultaneously surprising and rather uninteresting in a night that saw The Band's Visit essentially sweep with 10 wins (its only loss was Best Scenic Design to SpongeBob SquarePants). I have lots of thoughts about last night's ceremony, which for organization's sake will be broken into two broad categories: the telecast itself and the actual winners.

The Tony Telecast

Broadway alumni and 2018 Tony hosts Josh Groban and Sara Bareilles

While I have major qualms about the actual results of this year's Tonys, I have to say that overall I thought it was a well produced event. Josh Groban and Sara Bareilles proved to be excellent hosts, smartly playing up their musical skills while maintaining an easygoing, slightly self-deprecating vibe. Their opening number poking fun at their own "loser" status and name checking other famous Tony also-rans instantly diffused some of the tension in the room and allowed everyone to just enjoy the ceremony for what it was. The pair had some clever bits - including a rewritten, vocal fatigue focused take on Sia's "Chandelier" - and were fairly quick witted during the inevitable snafus of a live event (I was particularly amused by Bareilles' "magic delay" quip during the Harry Potter inspired bit).

When it came to the performance numbers from this season's shows, there were more good than bad, although not every show was a home run. The Mean Girls cast in particular seemed slightly terrified, an understandable case of nerves for a group where a high percentage of the cast was making their Tony Award debut. My Fair Lady also did itself a disservice by trying to cram 3 separate songs into their allotted time, which caused Norbert Leo Butz's normally showstopping "Get Me to the Church on Time" to appear unnecessarily manic and chaotic (Lauren Ambrose was in fine voice for her abridged "The Rain in Spain/I Could Have Danced All Night"). There were some odd sound issues with the Frozen number, although it still showcased the production well and demonstrated how surprising it was that neither Patti Murin or Caissie Levy netted even a nomination (Murin in particular is utterly charming).

On the positive side, Once On This Island absolutely *killed* it. From the recreation of the show's unique environmental staging to the phenomenally talented cast, they were easily my favorite performance of the night and would be the show I'd most want tickets for after the telecast (even before their Best Revival win). Tony nominee Hailey Kilgore was particularly luminous in her highlighted section, and Alex Newell just reaffirmed my assertion that he was robbed of a Best Feature Actor nomination. The divisive revival of Carousel also looked great with the surprising choice to do "Blow Low, Blow High;" in retrospect it was a brilliant choice that allowed them to highlight the show's strongest assets, Joshua Henry's glorious baritone and Justin Peck's Tony-winning choreography. And even the most cynical audience member had to be at least a tad charmed by Gavin Lee's tap-tastic "(I'm Not a) Loser" from SpongeBob SquarePants, proving the Nickelodeon adaptation didn't get all those Tony nods by accident.

The show also moved at a good clip, although that occasionally came at the expense of the winners' acceptance speeches. The telecast producers sure seemed to arbitrarily enforce the acceptance time limit, allowing certain (usually famous) winners to ramble on while others were cut off entirely. It seemed particularly egregious that they didn't let Jack Thorne, author of the Tony-winning Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, utter a single word while allowing John Leguizamo's rambling introduction of an equally rambling underscored monologue by Bruce Springsteen.

And while I have begrudgingly accepted that a lot of the "lesser" awards will be given out off air, they *really* couldn't make time for Broadway ROYALTY Chita Rivera and Andrew Lloyd Webber to receive their Lifetime Achievement awards on air?!? It's as if to say, "Thank you for dedicating your entire life to the theatre, but you're not as important as the Hollywood celebrities and recording artists that pop by once a decade or so." For shame, CBS. For shame.

The Winners

Lead producer Orin Wolf accepts the Best Musical Tony on behalf of The Band's Visit.

No point in mincing words: I was incredibly wrong about the way this season's awards would shake out (you can see just how wrong here). In my defense I don't think anyone expected The Band's Visit to do as well as it did, even those who expected it to win Best Musical. With 10 wins it becomes one of the most awarded productions in Tony history, and while I try to take a positive spin on this blog the fact of the matter is the show simply doesn't deserve a lot of them.

Best Actor is probably the most egregious mistake. First of all, Tony Shahloub was nominated in the wrong category, as his performance is a featured one and he was clearly only upgraded to leading status due to his fame. More importantly, his merely adequate performance in no way deserved to triumph over truly sensational work by Joshua Henry in Carousel or Henry Hadden-Paton in My Fair Lady. David Cromer's Best Direction win also feels exceedingly generous considering the superbly inventive work done by people like SpongeBob SquarePants' Tina Landau or Once On This Island's Michael Arden. And while I don't claim to be an expert in sound design, SpongeBob has a live Foley pit that produces the cartoon sound effects live each night; how is that not enough to win a Tony? And finally, I would like to point out that even the CBS producers clearly expected Tina Fey to win Best Book, which would explain why that category merited inclusion on the actual telecast instead of being relegated to the Tony preshow like Best Score (an award The Band's Visit both won and deserved).

The most common explanation offered for The Band's Visit's surprisingly strong showing is that Tony voters were rebelling against a season they felt was too overtly commercial. Which may well be true, but would also be a somewhat erroneous justification on voters' part as it is also based on a movie just like the rest of this year's Best Musical nominees. I guess the fact that it's an obscure movie makes it more palatable to voters? Regardless, it is not a show I foresee having a long life either in New York or afterward, nor do I think it will be much remembered or performed in 5-10 years' time.

In happier news, I was positively thrilled for Once On This Island's Best Revival win. While I would have been more than happy for expected winner My Fair Lady to take the crown, Once On This Island is the most heartfelt production of the current season and more than deserves the recognition. And Broadway baby Lindsay Mendez is another well deserving winner for her performance in Carousel, whose acceptance speech was equal parts charming and inspiring. Her speech is also a sobering reminder the recent discussions around diversity onstage are sorely needed, as whoever advised the now 35 year old Mendez to change her last name to get more work clearly did so in the past 10-15 years.

Overall, after some exceptional recent seasons this past year's crop of Broadway shows were a bit of an artistic letdown, particularly when it comes to new works. Yet it was also the highest grossing and best attended season on record, which provides little incentive for producers to change what they're doing. (Although it should be pointed out a good portion of that money comes from past seasons' blockbusters like Dear Evan Hansen, Come From Away, Hello, Dolly! and of course Hamilton.) It will be interesting to see if The Band's Visit's massive Tony haul affects what gets produced in the coming years, or if Broadway continues down the path of adapting relatively safe/known properties.

Feel free to share your thoughts and opinions in the comments, and keep an eye on this space for more reviews and opinions about all things Broadway!

2018 Tony Predictions: Best Play and Musical

After a month of celebration and speculation, the 2018 Tony Awards are almost upon us! All that's left to predict are Best Play and Best Musical, the two awards most likely to positively impact a show's success on Broadway and beyond. Best Musical in particular can make or break a show; Wicked was going to run regardless, but does anyone think Avenue Q would have had the life it's had without the boost provided by its surprise Best Musical win?

So which shows will triumph at Sunday night's ceremony? And do they actual deserve to win? Read on to find out!

Best Play

The Broadway cast of Harry Potter and the Cursed Child.

Nominees: The Children; Farinelli and the King; Harry Potter and the Cursed Child; Junk; Latin History for Morons

I could expend a lot of mental energy trying to concoct scenarios where Harry Potter and the Cursed Child loses this award, but its win feels so assured that it would be a waste of time. Like Best Revival of a Play frontrunner Angels in America, Cursed Child is an epic two-part play that by all accounts has expertly translated JK Rowling's Wizarding World to the stage, including reportedly jaw dropping feats of stage magic (Potter is almost certain to sweep the design categories). Lovingly crafted and beautifully acted, the consensus is the play actually deserves the massive financial success its enjoyed since before previews even started, when it amassed a staggering $20 million in advanced ticket sales. Cursed Child is also the only show in this category currently running, which has always been a massive advantage when it comes to winning Tonys. The only real negative for the show is that a win here can't really boost the already sky high box office for a show that remains sold out for many months to come.

Will & Should Win: Harry Potter and the Cursed Child

Best Musical

Ethan Slater and the Broadway cast of SpongeBob SquarePants.

Nominees: The Band's Visit; Frozen; Mean Girls; SpongeBob SquarePants

Now this is an interesting race. The only show I feel comfortable completely ruling out is Frozen, a competent stage adaptation of Disney's blockbuster film that failed to make much of an impression on Tony nominators or the theatre community at large. That's not to be confused with outright failure, as the $1.8 million in weekly grosses attests, but it certainly hasn't captured the imagination in the way The Lion King did back in 1998. And without at least some passionate supporters in your camp, it is very difficult to win Best Musical.

The conventional wisdom is The Band's Visit will win this award, but there are some important caveats that need to be taken into account. It is not the most nominated show of the season - both Mean Girls and SpongeBob got more total nods - and while that doesn't always correlate with a Best Musical win leading the nomination pack certain helps a show's overall chances. The Band's Visit is clearly the *critic's* favorite musical (see all the "Best of the Year" mentions it loudly trumpets in its marketing campaigns), but the critics haven't been able to vote for the Tonys since the 2009-2010. Not coincidentally, that was the season clear critical favorite and most nominated musical Fela! was bested by the more accessible and crowd pleasing Memphis for Best Musical, a particularly relevant piece of Tony history as The Band's Visit is similarly so concerned with being Art that it sometimes forgets to be entertaining.

If I was a Tony voter, I would vote for Mean Girls, the show that best combines sheer entertainment value with theatrical craft and some emotional depth. Tina Fey's adaptation of her iconic film is a blisteringly funny satire of teen cliques that genuinely has something to say about the way people treat one another. It keeps everything that made the movie enjoyable while finding new and interesting takes on the familiar plots and characters, including an extended metaphor about predator and prey and more nuanced investigations of many of the side characters. Add an appealing young cast and director Casey Nicholaw's trademark energy and you have a surefire crowd pleaser whose only real fault is that it tries so hard to make you like it.

But while Mean Girls has been consistently nominated for big awards, it has struggled to win most of them, often losing to fellow Best Musical nominee SpongeBob SquarePants. Admiration for the Nickelodeon adaptation has been steadily growing throughout the spring, including strong showings at both the Outer Critic's Circle and Drama Desk Awards, where it took home top honors. It has successfully capitalized on its underdog status to become a major contender, and the more I think about it the more I expect a "surprise" upset for this little show that could on Sunday night. The Band's Visit, perhaps a victim of its own hype, has proven disappointing and/or alienating to a fair number of people, while SpongeBob has consistently impressed by being a lot better than it has any right to be. If Memphis can beat Fela! and Kinky Boots can beat Matilda, SpongeBob can certainly beat The Band's Visit, and honestly probably deserves to.

Will Win: SpongeBob SquarePants
Should Win: Mean Girls

And that's it for this year's Tony predictions! Tune in to the Tony telecast on Sunday, June 10th to find out how I did, and check back early next week to get my final thoughts on this season's winners! In the meantime, make your voice heard in the comments, and check out the rest of my Tony coverage by clicking below:

Tony Nominations React
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Direction and Choreography
Featured Actor
Featured Actress
Actor
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Revival

2018 Tony Predictions: Best Revival

We're only a few short days away from the 2018 Tony Awards, when we'll learn which productions and artists from this past season have won Broadway's highest honor. We've spent plenty of time discussing the later, predicting all the acting races as well as many of the creative team awards, and now it's time to focus on the former. Which four productions will be deemed the best Broadway had to offer this past season? We're starting with the revivals, so read on to find out my thoughts!

Best Revival of a Play

James McArdle and Andrew Garfield in the Broadway revival of Angels in America.

Nominees: Angels in America; The Iceman Cometh; Lobby Hero; Three Tall Women; Travesties

While this category sports uniformly well received productions, I along with everyone else expect this award to go to Angels in America. Tony Kushner's Pulitzer Prize-winning epic is event theatre on a scale rarely seen, filled with the kind of weighty subject matter and big emotional beats that are like catnip to awards voters. In addition to being the most nominated play in Tony history, Angels has won practically every other Best Revival award in existence, so I see no reason why that would change come Sunday night.

Travesties is respected but heady, to the point where multiple reviewers admitted to being confused despite recognizing the craft on display; Tony voters probably feel similarly and will take their votes elsewhere. Lobby Hero marked Second Stage's Broadway debut in their dedicated home and established the Off-Broadway not-for-profit as a Broadway player to watch. I'm sure multiple Tony Awards are in Second Stage's future, but they will have to wait a bit longer to collect them. The Iceman Cometh earned surprisingly strong reviews for a production most industry insiders didn't seem all that interested in, but the tone of reviews is just measured enough that a win seems unlikely. If anything can wrest the crown away from Angels it will be Joe Mantello's new mounting of Three Tall Women, but I suspect most voters will view Glenda Jackson's presumed Best Actress win as a way to honor the entire production. 

(Fun fact: before becoming one of New York's go-to directors, Mantello was an actor who made his Broadway debut as Louis in the original mounting of Angels in America to Tony-nominated effect.)

Will & Should Win: Angels in America

Best Revival of a Musical

Lauren Ambrose in My Fair Lady at Lincoln Center.

Nominees: Carousel; My Fair Lady; Once On This Island

While this category sports fewer nominees than Best Revival of a Play, it *feels* more competitive as it lacks an obvious front runner. Carousel seems likely to be an also-ran, since the plethora of well executed individual elements haven't quite gelled as a whole for many theatregoers. Some feel the issues are inherent in the script and its questionable portrayal of domestic abuse, while others just think this particular production misses the mark in how it handles said elements, but either way the cumulative effect is a revival with enough naysayers to prevent a win.

Lincoln Center's lavish production of My Fair Lady was always destined to be this season's prestige revival, and it delivers on all fronts. Unlike Carousel, the creative team behind this show has addressed its problematic aspects in a way that appeals to modern sensibilities without betraying the original intent of the show. If anything, director Bartlett Sher's take on the material feels closer in spirit to Lerner and Loewe's actual text than many more "traditional" productions. As always, Sher has assembled a top notch cast to present a subtly revolutionary take on a show we all think we know, and it seems like once again Sher's efforts will result in a Best Revival win.

And yet I can't help but root for Michael Arden's breathtaking in-the-round staging of Once On This Island. While it lacks the sheer physical scale of its competitors it is no less ambitious, having beautifully transformed the Circle in the Square Theatre into an evocative island paradise overflowing with theatrical ingenuity and genuine heart. While I've heard whispers that some found My Fair Lady a tad too stately and reverential, I have yet to encounter anything but effusive praise for Once On This Island. It would certainly be a Tony moment to see this scrappy little show walk off with one of the night's biggest prizes, and while I don't expect it to happen, I can certainly hope for it.

Will Win: My Fair Lady
Should Win: Once On This Island (but My Fair Lady is also fantastic)


Keep checking this space for more 2018 Tony Award predictions in the weeks ahead! In the meantime, make your voice heard in the comments, and check out the rest of my Tony coverage by clicking below:

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2018 Tony Predictions: Best Actress

The 2018 Tony Awards are just over a week away, and we are continuing full speed ahead with our annual Tony predictions. Today we finish up the acting races with the Leading Actresses, breaking down who will win and pointing out who deserves to win while we're at it. Read on below!

Best Actress in a Play

Glenda Jackson as A in Three Tall Women.

Nominees: Glenda Jackson, Three Tall Women; Condola Rashad, Saint Joan; Lauren Ridloff, Children of a Lesser God; Amy Schumer, Meteor Shower

This is the easiest Tony category to predict; in fact, I'll go so far as to call it a lock. Glenda Jackson has already won multiple awards for her leading turn in Three Tall Women, including the hyper competitive Distinguished Performance Award from the Drama League, which is only awarded to one performer per year and can only be won once in a performer's lifetime.

As if that wasn't enough of an advantage, Jackson also faces less competition than normal with only three other nominees, none of whom have inspired much fervor among Tony voters. Amy Schumer is a somewhat surprising nominee from the long-shuttered Meteor Shower, and I don't know anyone who expects her to win. Meanwhile, Condola Rashad looks set to continue her streak as a perpetual Tony bridesmaid, with Saint Joan barely limping through its limited run with half-empty houses and zero buzz, either positive or negative. And while I'm sure Tony voters will love the story of Children of a Lesser God's Lauren Ridloff - a first time actress who was brought in as a consultant on Deaf culture and won the role of Sarah after being asked to play it during a reading - the show's early closing certainly hasn't helped her chances. If anyone can unseat Jackson it's probably Ridloff, but that seems about as likely as Hamilton closing anything this decade.

Will Win: Glenda Jackson, Three Tall Women
Should Win: Abstain

Best Actress in a Musical

Katrina Lenk as Dina in The Band's Visit.

Nominees: Lauren Ambrose, My Fair Lady; Hailey Kilgore, Once On This Island; LaChanze, Summer: The Donna Summer Musical; Katrina Lenk, The Band's Visit; Taylor Louderman, Mean Girls; Jessie Mueller, Carousel

As with Best Featured Actress in a Musical, there are some bizarre choices and omissions here. How Tony voters overlooked Patti Murin's luminous, star-making turn as Princess Anna in Frozen is beyond me, as I would rank her work above several of the nominated actresses without hesitation. On the opposite side of the spectrum, Jessie Mueller's inclusion for Carousel feels like a force of habit nomination more than something the Tony-winning actress earned. The Rodgers and Hamemrstein revival is far from Mueller's best work, not helped by the fact she is saddled with a problematic "leading" role which has failed to result in even a Tony nomination for those who've played it before her. It's also a bit of a stretch to argue that Taylor Louderman's take on Regina George in Mean Girls belongs in the leading category, although its harder to begrudge the first time Tony nominee her time in the spotlight.

That leaves us with four viable candidates to actually win, and I think we can safely rule out LaChanze's diva-riffic performance in Summer. I'm sure the previous Tony-winner is doing great work as late disco star Donna Summer, but the musical is so reviled by critics a win for her seems borderline impossible. I think both Hailey Kilgore and Once On This Island in general have ardent supporters among the community, but for whatever reason that show hasn't quite ignited Tony voters the way I thought it would (and should). My best guess as to why is the show opened just *slightly* too early in the season, and voters have been distracted by the newer productions that have premiered since then.

The Band's Visit actually opened prior to Island, but the difference here is that many people consider it the frontrunner for Best Musical, and so it is continually on people's minds. Katrina Lenk is quite bewitching as Dina, the sole female presence of any consequence in the show and the closest thing the ensemble piece has to a lead. If more of Visit lived up to her performance of the haunting ballad "Omar Sharif" I would probably like it a lot more than I currently do, but I still find her hobbled by the piece's frustratingly restrained, understated tone that is subtle to the point of being nonexistent.

Meanwhile Lauren Ambrose is giving the most fully realized musical characterization of the season in My Fair Lady at the Vivan Beaumont Theatre. Her Eliza is also heavily reliant on subtext and acting between the lines, but Ambrose manages an emotional accessibility Lenk lacks without sacrificing the latter's nuance. The only real criticism I have of Ambrose's performance is that while her sweet soprano can sound a bit small in that cavernous theatre, and you have definitely heard the role of Eliza sung better. What you likely *haven't* seen is a better acted version, and her singing is strong enough that you can forgive those times her voice is merely good instead of great.

As far as I'm concerned, Ambrose has more than earned this award. She may well win it, as demonstrated by her victory at the Outer Critics' Circle Awards over largely the same field of competitors. But the objective part of me suspects that Tony voters will go with Lenk due to their love for Band's Visit (and residual love for last season's Indecent, also starring Lenk).

Will Win: Katrina Lenk, The Band's Visit
Should Win: Lauren Ambrose, My Fair Lady
Should Have Been Nominated: Patti Murin, Frozen



Keep checking this space for more 2018 Tony Award predictions in the weeks ahead! In the meantime, make your voice heard in the comments, and check out the rest of my Tony coverage by clicking below:

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2018 Tony Predictions: Best Actor

We are now less than 2 weeks away from the 2018 Tony Awards, and speculation about who will win Broadway's highest honor on June 10th continues to intensify, including here at Broadway, Etc. After making predictions about the Featured Actor and Actress races, its time to move on to the Leading categories, where I will be predicting who will win as well as pointed out who most deserves it. Read on for more!

Best Actor in a Play

Andrew Garfield (left) as Prior Walter and Nathan Stewart-Jarrett as Belize in Angels in America.

Nominees: Andrew Garfield, Angels in America; Tom Hollander, Travesties; Jamie Parker, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child; Mark Rylance, Farinelli and the King; Denzel Washington, The Iceman Cometh

As with Best Featured Actress in a play, this category is mostly made up of Brits from transferred productions. Tom Hollander seems like the longest shot to win here, as Travesties just doesn't have the awards momentum to overtake the other, more lauded productions represented here. Meanwhile Mark Rylance has never gone through a Tony season without a win (he wasn't nominated for La Bete but won for Jerusalem that same season, and won one of two Tonys he was nominated for in 2014), but this doesn't feel like his year, and honestly he's probably busier campaigning for Farinelli and the King to win Best Play so his wife, the play's author, can experience Tony glory.

Which leaves us with Jamie Parker, Andrew Garfield, and Denzel Washington. Parker seemed like the man to beat heading into this season, before the love for Angels in America somewhat surprisingly surpassed the excitement about Harry Potter and the Cursed Child. Parker certainly isn't down for the count, but his path to Tony gold is a lot harder thanks to an abundance of love for the revival of Tony Kushner's two-part epic. Angels is certainly the more "serious" of the two works, which fairly or not gives Andrew Garfield the edge. But Washington is a dark horse for The Iceman Cometh, a production that pleasantly surprised a lot of critics and provides the Tony and Oscar winner with quite the showcase scene in the final act. I still expect Garfield to win, but I wouldn't be overly surprised to see Parker or Washington sneak through in an upset.

Will Win: Andrew Garfield, Angels in America
Should Win: Abstain

Best Actor in a Musical

Joshua Henry as Billy Bigelow in Carousel.

Nominees: Harry Hadden-Paton, My Fair Lady; Joshua Henry, Carousel; Tony Shalhoub, The Band's Visit; Ethan Slater, SpongeBob SquarePants

There were only 5 eligible performances in this category, a byproduct of it being a weaker year for musicals in general and a welcomed increase in musicals centered around women; 7 of this year's musicals have female leads or co-leads (a couple even feature 2 women sharing the spotlight with all men relegated to supporting roles). That said, the lack of quantity is certainly compensated for by an abundance of quality, with some truly excellent talent on display here. I can't imagine Tony Shalhoub actually winning for The Band's Visit - very much an ensemble show where his leading man status feels like a courtesy extended due to his fame - but he's certainly deserving of a nomination.

I'm not sure what to make of Ethan Slater's chances playing the title character of SpongeBob SquarePants. On the one hand, the young actor is beyond charismatic in his Broadway debut, so effortlessly embodying the eternally optimistic sea sponge that I have trouble imagining anyone else in the role. He has also already racked up Theatre World and Outer Critics' Circle Awards for his performance, so only a fool would count him out of the running (not to mention the Tonys love a Cinderella story). But at the same time, as great as Slater is, I'm not convinced that he's the best of the four nominated actors, or even the runner up.

Joshua Henry and Harry Hadden-Paton both take already great, award-worthy roles and run with them, exceeding expectations in two career milestone performances. Both also succeed in taking characters with extreme cases of toxic masculinity and making them both relatable and even empathetic for audiences hyper aware of how horribly sexist traditional male/female gender dynamics are. And no actor, male or female, tackled a role more closely associated with a specific performer than Hadden-Paton, who successfully makes My Fair Lady's caustic Henry Higgins his own in the wake of Rex Harrison's legendary, Oscar- and Tony-winning performance.

If I were voting, I'd probably choose Hadden-Paton, who I thought was perfection in a near perfect production. But Henry is offering up one of the best, if not the best, sung renditions of Carousel Broadway has ever seen. His "Soliloquy" is the musical highlight of the season, thanks both to his vocal prowess and his stellar acting ability, traits which carry through the entirety of his performance. Henry's just *feels* like a Tony-winning performance, thrillingly sung and expertly acted, and after two prior nominations it looks like the third time will be the charm for this consistently excellent performer.

Will Win: Joshua Henry, Carousel
Should Win: Harry Hadden-Paton, My Fair Lady (just barely edging out Henry)



Keep checking this space for more 2018 Tony Award predictions in the weeks ahead! In the meantime, make your voice heard in the comments, and check out the rest of my Tony coverage by clicking below:

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2018 Tony Predictions: Best Featured Actress

Our 2018 Tony Award predictions continue, this time focusing on the Best Featured Actress nominees. Read on for my thoughts on who will win, who deserves to win, and at least one criminally overlooked actress!

Best Featured Actress in a Play

Noma Dumezweni (left) with Jamie Parker and Paul Thornley in Harry Potter and the Cursed Child.

Nominees: Susan Brown, Angels in America; Noma Dumezweni, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child; Deborah Findlay, The Children; Denise Gough, Angels in America; Laurie Metcalf, Three Tall Women

It is both interesting and somewhat distressing to note that with the exception of Metcalf, all of the actresses in this category hail from the UK, as do the productions for which they're nominated. While I'm not as concerned about the state of the Broadway play as some, it is disheartening to see the lack of home grown talent when it comes to plays on the Great White Way. Hopefully next season will see producers taking more chances on American-born plays and productions.

As for likely winners, Deborah Findlay is the longest shot here, having appeared in a long-shuttered play which got little Tony love (although The Children did manage to score a coveted Best Play nomination). Meanwhile, when it comes to the dual nominees from Angels in America, both roles offer such a wealth of acting opportunities I'm not sure how anyone can choose between them. Susan Brown tackles multiple roles, primarily that of an overbearing Mormon mother struggling to accept her closeted son, while Denise Gough plays her pill popping daughter-in-law. While I usually think the effect of vote splitting on Tony winners is marginal, the lack of a clear favorite leaves room for a neck and neck race to be overtaken by a third contender with just a few more votes.

Between her Tony win last year for A Doll's House Part 2, her Oscar nominated supporting turn in Lady Bird, and her return to her signature sitcom role of Aunt Jackie on the revival of Roseanne, it seems the entire world has remembered just how much they love the supremely talented Laurie Metcalf. She could well pull off a rare back to back Tony win with her supporting turn in Three Tall Women, a production the entire theatre community seems to adore. But I think Harry Potter and the Cursed Child's Noma Dumezweni will *just* edge out Metcalf and go home with a Tony to accompany the Olivier Award she won for the same role. Not only would a win for Dumezweni acknowledge her lauded performance as Hermione Granger, it would also be a strong statement in support of onstage representation and color conscious casting. (Despite JK Rowling's approval and the fact that Hermione's race is never explicitly referenced in the novels, some criticized the casting of a black actress as a character many had assumed was white, a notion reinforced by Emma Watson's portrayal of the character through 8 films.)

Will Win: Noma Dumezweni, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child
Should Win: Abstain

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

Lindsay Mendez as Carrie Pipperidge in Carousel.

Nominees: Ariana DeBose, Summer: The Donna Summer Musical; Renee Fleming, Carousel; Lindsay Mendez, Carousel; Ashley Park, Mean Girls; Diana Rigg, My Fair Lady

Not to take anything away from the nominated performers, but it's safe to say this category did not turned out quite as expected. Dame Diana Rigg is a treasure and Broadway is lucky to have her, but her inclusion for the relatively minor, non-singing role of Mrs. Higgins in Lincoln Center's My Fair Lady has raised more than a few eyebrows. I also question the inclusion of Mean Girls' Ashley Park at the exclusion of her hilarious, scene stealing costar Kate Rockwell, whose dimwitted Karen is the most consistently hysterical performance on Broadway right now. (Fans of reckless belting are also bummed at the exclusion of Barrett Wilbert Weed's Janice from the same show, but in that case I can see why she didn't quite make the cut.)

In fact, while all supremely talented, all of the nominated women also have some big hurdles to clear. Ariana DeBose's star has been steadily rising the past few seasons as an original cast member of first Hamilton and then A Bronx Tale, but the only musical this season critics seemed to hate more than Summer is the unnominated Escape to Margaritaville. Rigg will have to overcome the prejudice against being nominated in a musical acting category despite not singing a note, which while technically allowed does seem to be against the spirit of the award. Both Renee Fleming and Lindsay Mendez are doing admirable work in a divisive revival of Carousel; some folks loved it, others - like me - found it to be an admirable but ultimately flawed production of a problematic show. And Park's more nuanced turn in a musical primarily known for over the top musical comedy could either be an asset or a hindrance depending on how many voters expect all actors in comedies to be laugh out loud funny.

Despite having to compete with the memory of Audra McDonald in her breakthrough role, Mendez seems like the most likely victor. She is a well-liked member of the community who has admirably adapted her very contemporary quirkiness and vocal pyrotechnics to the traditional leanings of the Rodgers and Hammerstein revival, and aside from leading man Joshua Henry she is the most consistently strong part of the show. (Fleming's masterful rendition of "You'll Never Walk Alone" is worth the price of admission alone, but her serviceable dialogue scenes don't feel quite strong enough to justify a win.) Park is the next most likely winner, and I can even see Tony voters opting for a surprise win for DeBose, but as of now this is Mendez's race to lose.

Will Win: Lindsay Mendez, Carousel
Should Win/Should Have Been Nominated: Kate Rockwell, Mean Girls


Keep checking this space for more 2018 Tony Award predictions in the weeks ahead! In the meantime, make your voice heard in the comments, and check out the rest of my Tony coverage by clicking below:

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2018 Tony Predictions: Best Featured Actor

Having tackled some of the creative behind the scenes categories, it is now time to turn the focus of our annual Tony Predictions to the acting categories. So let's get started with the Featured Actor categories, breaking down both who will win and who actually deserves to win. Read on for more!

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Nathan Lane as Roy Cohn in Angels in America.

Nominees: Anthony Boyle, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child; Michael Cera, Lobby Hero; Brian Tyree Henry, Lobby Hero; Nathan Lane, Angels in America; David Morse, The Iceman Cometh

Having not seen any of the nominated performances (I do have tickets to see both Angels in American and Cursed Child later this summer), I'm flying blind when it comes to predicting this category. David Morse feels like a long shot as the Broadway community doesn't seem especially passionate about The Iceman Cometh, but with that said his role of Larry Slade gives him plenty of material to work with in what is essentially a co-lead. More stagetime means more chances to have Tony-worthy moments, so the possibility of a surprise win for Morse is certainly there. Lobby Hero costars Michael Cera and Brian Tyree Henry may well cancel each other out, and the fact that Lobby Hero is now closed while the other productions are still running is another hurdle either actor will have to overcome. (Historically, being in a closed show severely handicaps a performer's chances of winning.)

Like many of this season's play categories, the race will likely to boil down to Harry Potter vs. Angels in America. Anthony Boyle won the Olivier for his role in Cursed Child's London premiere, while Nathan Lane was surprisingly not even nominated for playing force of nature Ray Cohn in Angels at London's National Theatre. That would appear to give Boyle the edge, but the American response to Angels has also outpaced the British reception, partially evidenced by Angels beating Cursed Child in total nominations. Lane's star wattage is also stronger on this side of the Atlantic, with the beloved character having been a fixture of the New York theatrical community for decades. Despite multiple nominations Lane hasn't won a Tony since The Producers all the way back in 2001, so it feels like he's overdue for another, especially since he has never been recognized for one of his many lauded dramatic roles. I think Lane will win the day, but don't count Boyle out just yet.

Will Win: Nathan Lane, Angels in America

Should Win: Abstain

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Gavin Lee as Squidward J. Tentacles in SpongeBob SquarePants.

Nominees: Norbert Leo Butz, My Fair Lady; Alexander Gemignani, Carousel; Grey Henson, Mean Girls; Gavin Lee, SpongeBob SquarePants; Ari'el Stachel, The Band's Visit

This is a competitive category that could go any number of ways, and might be an early indication of whether Tony voters have played it safe or gotten adventurous with their winners. Norbert Leo Butz is the elder statesman of the group, having won twice for his leading performances in Dirty Rotten Scoundrels  and Catch Me If You Can. He gives a fantastically layered, utterly transfixing performance in My Fair Lady, but is it enough to justify awarding him another trophy over the rest of the category, most of whom are first time nominees? If Butz's name is called on Tony Sunday, expect an evening of choices that rewards the established Broadway elite rather than the new kids on the block.

Ari'el Stachel sits in an interesting space between Butz and the other nominees. He's nominated for his Broadway debut, so a win for him would appear to signal the Tony voters are interested in rewarding new blood. But The Band's Visit is the widely presumed frontrunner for Best Musical, so picking the one representative from that show would be a fairly safe choice. Personally, while I don't think Stachel is bad by any stretch of the imagination, I'm also hard pressed to tell you exactly what his character does in the show. Being unmemorable in a field of flashy performances is a handicap I'm not sure Stachel can overcome (and should Band's Visit be the runaway favorite for the big awards, Tony voters might want to spread the love).

The other nominees are more exciting choices, unexpected but not undeserving. While Alexander Gemignani is the longest shot of the group, he does extraordinary things with Enoch Snow in Carousel, a role which would easily fade into the background in the hands of a lesser performer. But I can't see him triumphing over SpongeBob's Gavin Lee and Mean Girls' Grey Henson, both supremely charismatic performers gifted with bona fide showstoppers. Lee's comic stylings have been polished to a high shine, and watching him tap dance his way through "I'm Not a Loser" is the most joyous part of a show overflowing with unbridled fun. Henson is rougher around the edges, but there's no denying the infectious glee he brings to Mean Girls' "too gay to function" Damian, a clear crowd favorite (so much so the writers added a second big number for Hensen between the DC tryout and Broadway).

Honestly, Butz probably *deserves* this award the most. The cynic in me thinks Tony voters will ultimately choose Stachel for having the most dramatic performance, but recent winners in this category show a refreshing willingness to acknowledge how difficult a comedic performance can be. For that reason, I'm going out on a limb and predicting Gavin Lee will tap his way to victory, proving once and for all that he is NOT a loser.

Will Win: Gavin Lee, SpongeBob SquarePants

Should Win: Norbert Leo Butz, My Fair Lady

Should Have Been Nominated: Alex Newell for his gender bending, rough raising Asaka in Once on this Island 

Keep checking this space for more 2018 Tony Award predictions in the weeks ahead! In the meantime, make your voice heard in the comments, and check out the rest of my Tony coverage by clicking below:

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2018 Tony Predictions: Best Director and Choreography

While many Tony categories this year are up for grabs, that seems to stem more from all the nominees being equally good but not great rather than a surfeit of truly standout work. That is not meant to detract from this year's nominees so much as an acknowledgement that there's just less eligible work this season, and it isn't the creative home runs we've been spoiled by the past few years. That said, one area where this year's Tonys are *super* competitive is Best Director, so read on to find out my predictions of who will walk away a winner on June 10th (and if they actually deserve it).

Best Direction of a Play

Andrew Garfield as Prior Walter and the cast of Angels in America.

Nominees: Marianne Elliott, Angels in America; Joe Mantello, Three Tall Women; Patrick Marber, Travesties; John Tiffany, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child; George C. Wolfe, The Iceman Cometh

The level of talent in this category is off the charts. With the exception of Travesties' Patrick Marber, all are previous Tony winners, both hugely influential and highly respected in the Broadway community. And the shows they are nominated for not only represent some of the best reviewed productions of the season, but also display an sense of scale and depth rarely attempted in a Broadway play these days.

While the Tonys typically love an underdog story, I don't see Marber breaking through for Roundabout's revival of Tom Stoppard's heady Travesties. The play is just too obtuse for the average Tony voter to really rally behind, even though they all surely recognize and respect the skill that went into mounting it. Meanwhile George C. Wolfe's The Iceman Cometh's finds itself the victim of poor timing, coming only a few years after a much heralded mounting at Brooklyn Academy of Music starring Nathan Lane and Brian Dennehy that was once rumored for a Broadway transfer. Many critics felt the show didn't quite merit revisiting so soon, and Wolfe will unfortunately be penalized for it. And while I have read nary a negative word about Joe Mantello's mounting of Three Tall Women, I have trouble imagining him triumphing over the other two gargantuan undertakings under consideration here.

Both Angels in America and Harry Potter and the Cursed Child are epic plays presented in two parts. Both have a lot of technical elements for their directors to wrangle, with Cursed Child reportedly boasting a physical production and special effects on the level of any big budget musical. There is a very good chance John Tiffany will win for bringing The Boy Who Lived to Broadway in such successful, stunning fashion, a clear triumph of theatrical craft and artistry. But Angels in America is inarguably one of the densest, most thought provoking, and important plays of the past 50 years, and by all accounts Marianne Elliott has nailed it. In what some might consider an upset, I foresee her name being the one called on June 10th, to thunderous applause.

Will and Should Win: Marianne Elliott, Angels in America

Best Direction of a Musical

Harry Hadden-Paton as Henry Higgins and Lauren Ambrose as Eliza Doolittle in My Fair Lady at Lincoln Center.

Nominees: Michael Arden, Once on this Island; David Cromer, The Band's Visit; Tina Landau, SpongeBob SquarePants; Casey Nicholaw, Mean Girls; Bartlett Sher, My Fair Lady

For me, this is hands down the most competitive category of the night. Each director's vision permeates every corner of their respective productions, and yet ultimately it is the material which shines through instead of some heavy-handed directorial "concept." That said, I think we can safely rule out a win for Casey Nicholaw, as the very entertaining Mean Girls is hardly his best work. And while David Cromer is a dark horse for his work on the critically lauded The Band's Visit, I don't think his direction of that show is as integral to its success as the remaining three contenders.

It cannot be understated how much Michael Arden's vision for Once on this Island helped shape that production into the jewel it is today. His environmental staging makes the most out of the deceptively tricky Circle in the Square Theatre, and for all his lush images and inventive staging he keeps the focus squarely on the narrative's big, beating heart. After the Deaf West Spring Awakening revival and now this, Arden has firmly established himself as an artist to watch, but I sadly don't think it's his time to win Tony glory just yet. 

When it comes to choosing between Tina Landau and Bartlett Sher it's almost too close to call. The Outer Critics' Circle refused to pick, instead awarding both artists Best Direction of a Musical in a rare tie. Sher has subtly but irrevocably changed the way My Fair Lady plays for a modern audience more aware than ever of how gender politics play out in popular entertainment. He has radically reinterpreted a beloved classic in a way that feels startlingly fresh and contemporary without changing a word of the 62 year old classic.

Meanwhile Landau, who has been attached to SpongeBob SquarePants almost since its inception, has miraculous turned what seemed like a cynical cash grab by a big corporation into one of the most entertaining celebrations of theatrical craft around. She has guided her design team to a visual look that evokes the off-kilter feel of the cartoon without literally copying it, and has assembled a rock solid cast that have been encouraged to take their performances far beyond a funny voice and a couple of quirks. She as much as anyone helped shape the disparate elements into a unified whole that feels entirely at home on stage. 

Sher seems like a safer bet to win, and should he walk away with the trophy on Tony Sunday you won't hear any complaints from me. But Landau is this season's MVP when in comes to direction, and I'm hoping she will walk away with the acknowledgement she deserves.

Will Win: Bartlett Sher, My Fair Lady

Should Win: Tina Landau, SpongeBob SquarePants

Best Choreography

The beautiful dancers of the cast of Carousel.

Nominees: Christopher Gattelli, My Fair Lady; Christopher Gattelli, SpongeBob SquarePants; Steven Hoggett, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child; Casey Nicholaw, Mean Girls; Justin Peck, Carousel

This article is running a bit long, but that's okay because there's not much to discuss here. Justin Peck easily wins Best Choreography for his beautiful and abundant work on Carousel, the biggest dance show of the season. The revival's producers were smart to hire New York City Ballet's youngest ever choreographer in residence to stage Carousel's many dances - including the signature Rodgers and Hammerstein dream ballet - and I can't imagine anyone else winning this award.

Will & Should Win: Justin Peck, Carousel

Keep checking this space for more 2018 Tony Award predictions in the weeks ahead! In the meantime, make your voice heard in the comments, and check out the rest of my Tony coverage by clicking below:

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