2018 Tony Predictions: Best Play and Musical

After a month of celebration and speculation, the 2018 Tony Awards are almost upon us! All that's left to predict are Best Play and Best Musical, the two awards most likely to positively impact a show's success on Broadway and beyond. Best Musical in particular can make or break a show; Wicked was going to run regardless, but does anyone think Avenue Q would have had the life it's had without the boost provided by its surprise Best Musical win?

So which shows will triumph at Sunday night's ceremony? And do they actual deserve to win? Read on to find out!

Best Play

The Broadway cast of Harry Potter and the Cursed Child.

Nominees: The Children; Farinelli and the King; Harry Potter and the Cursed Child; Junk; Latin History for Morons

I could expend a lot of mental energy trying to concoct scenarios where Harry Potter and the Cursed Child loses this award, but its win feels so assured that it would be a waste of time. Like Best Revival of a Play frontrunner Angels in America, Cursed Child is an epic two-part play that by all accounts has expertly translated JK Rowling's Wizarding World to the stage, including reportedly jaw dropping feats of stage magic (Potter is almost certain to sweep the design categories). Lovingly crafted and beautifully acted, the consensus is the play actually deserves the massive financial success its enjoyed since before previews even started, when it amassed a staggering $20 million in advanced ticket sales. Cursed Child is also the only show in this category currently running, which has always been a massive advantage when it comes to winning Tonys. The only real negative for the show is that a win here can't really boost the already sky high box office for a show that remains sold out for many months to come.

Will & Should Win: Harry Potter and the Cursed Child

Best Musical

Ethan Slater and the Broadway cast of SpongeBob SquarePants.

Nominees: The Band's Visit; Frozen; Mean Girls; SpongeBob SquarePants

Now this is an interesting race. The only show I feel comfortable completely ruling out is Frozen, a competent stage adaptation of Disney's blockbuster film that failed to make much of an impression on Tony nominators or the theatre community at large. That's not to be confused with outright failure, as the $1.8 million in weekly grosses attests, but it certainly hasn't captured the imagination in the way The Lion King did back in 1998. And without at least some passionate supporters in your camp, it is very difficult to win Best Musical.

The conventional wisdom is The Band's Visit will win this award, but there are some important caveats that need to be taken into account. It is not the most nominated show of the season - both Mean Girls and SpongeBob got more total nods - and while that doesn't always correlate with a Best Musical win leading the nomination pack certain helps a show's overall chances. The Band's Visit is clearly the *critic's* favorite musical (see all the "Best of the Year" mentions it loudly trumpets in its marketing campaigns), but the critics haven't been able to vote for the Tonys since the 2009-2010. Not coincidentally, that was the season clear critical favorite and most nominated musical Fela! was bested by the more accessible and crowd pleasing Memphis for Best Musical, a particularly relevant piece of Tony history as The Band's Visit is similarly so concerned with being Art that it sometimes forgets to be entertaining.

If I was a Tony voter, I would vote for Mean Girls, the show that best combines sheer entertainment value with theatrical craft and some emotional depth. Tina Fey's adaptation of her iconic film is a blisteringly funny satire of teen cliques that genuinely has something to say about the way people treat one another. It keeps everything that made the movie enjoyable while finding new and interesting takes on the familiar plots and characters, including an extended metaphor about predator and prey and more nuanced investigations of many of the side characters. Add an appealing young cast and director Casey Nicholaw's trademark energy and you have a surefire crowd pleaser whose only real fault is that it tries so hard to make you like it.

But while Mean Girls has been consistently nominated for big awards, it has struggled to win most of them, often losing to fellow Best Musical nominee SpongeBob SquarePants. Admiration for the Nickelodeon adaptation has been steadily growing throughout the spring, including strong showings at both the Outer Critic's Circle and Drama Desk Awards, where it took home top honors. It has successfully capitalized on its underdog status to become a major contender, and the more I think about it the more I expect a "surprise" upset for this little show that could on Sunday night. The Band's Visit, perhaps a victim of its own hype, has proven disappointing and/or alienating to a fair number of people, while SpongeBob has consistently impressed by being a lot better than it has any right to be. If Memphis can beat Fela! and Kinky Boots can beat Matilda, SpongeBob can certainly beat The Band's Visit, and honestly probably deserves to.

Will Win: SpongeBob SquarePants
Should Win: Mean Girls

And that's it for this year's Tony predictions! Tune in to the Tony telecast on Sunday, June 10th to find out how I did, and check back early next week to get my final thoughts on this season's winners! In the meantime, make your voice heard in the comments, and check out the rest of my Tony coverage by clicking below:

Tony Nominations React
Book and Score
Direction and Choreography
Featured Actor
Featured Actress
Actor
Actress
Revival