2018 Tony Predictions: Best Revival

We're only a few short days away from the 2018 Tony Awards, when we'll learn which productions and artists from this past season have won Broadway's highest honor. We've spent plenty of time discussing the later, predicting all the acting races as well as many of the creative team awards, and now it's time to focus on the former. Which four productions will be deemed the best Broadway had to offer this past season? We're starting with the revivals, so read on to find out my thoughts!

Best Revival of a Play

James McArdle and Andrew Garfield in the Broadway revival of Angels in America.

Nominees: Angels in America; The Iceman Cometh; Lobby Hero; Three Tall Women; Travesties

While this category sports uniformly well received productions, I along with everyone else expect this award to go to Angels in America. Tony Kushner's Pulitzer Prize-winning epic is event theatre on a scale rarely seen, filled with the kind of weighty subject matter and big emotional beats that are like catnip to awards voters. In addition to being the most nominated play in Tony history, Angels has won practically every other Best Revival award in existence, so I see no reason why that would change come Sunday night.

Travesties is respected but heady, to the point where multiple reviewers admitted to being confused despite recognizing the craft on display; Tony voters probably feel similarly and will take their votes elsewhere. Lobby Hero marked Second Stage's Broadway debut in their dedicated home and established the Off-Broadway not-for-profit as a Broadway player to watch. I'm sure multiple Tony Awards are in Second Stage's future, but they will have to wait a bit longer to collect them. The Iceman Cometh earned surprisingly strong reviews for a production most industry insiders didn't seem all that interested in, but the tone of reviews is just measured enough that a win seems unlikely. If anything can wrest the crown away from Angels it will be Joe Mantello's new mounting of Three Tall Women, but I suspect most voters will view Glenda Jackson's presumed Best Actress win as a way to honor the entire production. 

(Fun fact: before becoming one of New York's go-to directors, Mantello was an actor who made his Broadway debut as Louis in the original mounting of Angels in America to Tony-nominated effect.)

Will & Should Win: Angels in America

Best Revival of a Musical

Lauren Ambrose in My Fair Lady at Lincoln Center.

Nominees: Carousel; My Fair Lady; Once On This Island

While this category sports fewer nominees than Best Revival of a Play, it *feels* more competitive as it lacks an obvious front runner. Carousel seems likely to be an also-ran, since the plethora of well executed individual elements haven't quite gelled as a whole for many theatregoers. Some feel the issues are inherent in the script and its questionable portrayal of domestic abuse, while others just think this particular production misses the mark in how it handles said elements, but either way the cumulative effect is a revival with enough naysayers to prevent a win.

Lincoln Center's lavish production of My Fair Lady was always destined to be this season's prestige revival, and it delivers on all fronts. Unlike Carousel, the creative team behind this show has addressed its problematic aspects in a way that appeals to modern sensibilities without betraying the original intent of the show. If anything, director Bartlett Sher's take on the material feels closer in spirit to Lerner and Loewe's actual text than many more "traditional" productions. As always, Sher has assembled a top notch cast to present a subtly revolutionary take on a show we all think we know, and it seems like once again Sher's efforts will result in a Best Revival win.

And yet I can't help but root for Michael Arden's breathtaking in-the-round staging of Once On This Island. While it lacks the sheer physical scale of its competitors it is no less ambitious, having beautifully transformed the Circle in the Square Theatre into an evocative island paradise overflowing with theatrical ingenuity and genuine heart. While I've heard whispers that some found My Fair Lady a tad too stately and reverential, I have yet to encounter anything but effusive praise for Once On This Island. It would certainly be a Tony moment to see this scrappy little show walk off with one of the night's biggest prizes, and while I don't expect it to happen, I can certainly hope for it.

Will Win: My Fair Lady
Should Win: Once On This Island (but My Fair Lady is also fantastic)


Keep checking this space for more 2018 Tony Award predictions in the weeks ahead! In the meantime, make your voice heard in the comments, and check out the rest of my Tony coverage by clicking below:

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2017 Tony Award Predictions: Best Revival

The 71st annual Tony Awards are this Sunday, and my annual predictions keep rolling right along. It's now time to discuss the prestigious production awards, those which honor an entire show rather than an individual part of it. Of all the award categories, a win here has the most noticeable impact on a show's box office, as well as its future prospects when it comes to potential tours and regional productions. 

As always, I will use a combination of personal opinion, critical consensus, and industry buzz to determine the most likely winner. So on to the Best Revival categories!

Best Revival of a Play

The cast of Jitney on Broadway.

Nominees: Jitney; The Little Foxes; Present Laughter; Six Degrees of Separation

Manhattan Theatre Club, one of the biggest not-for-profit players on the New York theatre scene, has a hit or miss track record when it comes to their Broadway seasons. But this year has been nothing but hits, with all three of their Broadway productions (Heisenberg, Jitney, and The Little Foxes) earning both critical acclaim and fairly healthy box office. Which is why it seems inevitable that MTC will take home the Tony for Best Play Revival this year, with the only question being which production it will win for.

The Little Foxes has all the elements that add up to Tony gold. It is currently running, features a much praised cast (several of whom are up for individual awards), and plenty of buzz thanks to the fact that stars Laura Linney and Cynthia Nixon play the two primary roles in repertory. But my gut tells me it will be MTC's other revival, the long-awaited Broadway bow of August Wilson's Jitney, that actually brings home the prize on Sunday night. Despite being the only nominee not currently running, Jitney was universally beloved by critics as serious art, and it's recent Drama Desk win only increases the production's profile and chances of winning. Six Degrees of Separation and Present Laughter will have to settle for just being nominated, as neither piece has inspired the kind of passion that makes people vote for you over other worthy options.

Will Win: Jitney

Best Revival of a Musical

Tony-nominee Kate Baldwin, Tony-nominee Bette Midler, Beanie Feldstein, and Taylor Trensch in Hello, Dolly!

Nominees: Falsettos; Hello, Dolly!; Miss Saigon

This award is currently Hello, Dolly's to lose, and not just because of the sensational performance of Bette Midler in the title role. From top to bottom, this is one of the best realized productions of the season, and arguably the best Dolly we're likely to see in our lifetime. Composer Jerry Herman reportedly turned down multiple offers to revive this Golden Age classic over the years, waiting for just the right cast and director to make the show sing. He has found it in Jerry Zaks' sumptuous staging, which honors the show's old school roots while simultaneously making it feel fresh and new again. The sets, costumes, lights, choreography, and performances all add up to pure theatrical magic that will win over even those who aren't especially enamored with Hello, Dolly! as a show (as structurally, it admittedly has some faults).

The only thing that could spoil Dolly's victory lap would be a late in the game surge for Lincoln Center's Falsettos. The toast of the town when it opened this fall, the Broadway return of William Finn's signature work at one point appeared to be the show to beat, but the long months between its early January closing and now make it difficult to envision an actual win. Working in the show's favor is its incredibly appealing quartet of leads, who have been dutifully making the press rounds throughout Tony season professing their love for the show and one another. Their charm and innate likability could help remind voters what they liked so much about the show to begin with, but overcoming Dolly is a major uphill battle. And compared to its two competitors, Miss Saigon just doesn't have the acclaim or buzz to pull off an upset.

Will and Should Win: Hello, Dolly!

Check back soon for my predictions in the all important Best Play and Musical races, and catch up on the rest of my 2017 Tony coverage below!

Nominations React

Best Book and Score

Best Direction and Choreography

Best Featured Actor

Best Featured Actress

Best Actor

Best Actress

Extremely Early 2015 Tony Predictions: Part I

Given my unabashed enthusiasm for predicting the Tony Awards, last year I decided to take a midseason look at the likely nominees for the Big 12 categories (re: production and acting), and those posts ended up being some of the most popular in the blog's history. So I'm at it again this year, taking stock of all the shows that have already opened to see who has made a big enough impression to be remembered when the Tony Award nominations are announced on April 28th. As the Tonys historically favor spring shows, only the people and productions who have made incredibly strong critical and/or commercial showings can really be considered contenders at this point. So which productions do I think have done just that? Find out below!

WARNING: Occasional snark and lots of speculation to follow.

Best Musical

Tony Danza and Rob McClure in the year's best new musical thus far, Jason Robert Brown's fun-filled Honeymoon in Vegas.

There are currently only three shows eligible in this category, and the chances of Holler If Ya Hear Me scoring a Best Musical nod after its disastrously short run in early June are almost non-existent. It is tempting to say the two other new musicals, The Last Ship and Honeymoon in Vegas, will both make the Tonys' shortlist, but by only selecting four Best Musical contenders last year the nominations committee proved that just because they can nominate five shows doesn't mean they will. With a host of high profile new musicals slated for the spring, I suspect that we will only see one nominee from this fall's batch of shows. After all, I have to imagine Pulitzer Prize finalist Fun Home will get a Best Musical nod, and with anticipated shows like Finding Neverland, Something Rotten, and Doctor Zhivago on the horizon things look particularly grim for the already shuttered Last Ship. In addition to scoring stronger reviews, Honeymoon at least has a chance at running into the spring (although its box office will need to improve quickly), which makes it the closest to a sure thing we have right now. And for the record, I do expect to see five Best Musical nominees this year; I just expect the majority of them to come from the seven productions slated to open in the spring.

Best Play

One of many eye-popping images from the spectacular London import The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time.

This is already a strongly competitive category, with Disgraced, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time, and Constellations all scoring across the board raves. Unless the spring slate of new plays is particularly weak, at least one of these shows will likely be omitted despite a probable five Best Play nominees. Curious Incident is in the best position, having earned a mention on many Best of 2014 lists (including my own) thanks to its eye-popping staging and engrossing portrayal of an autistic teen's struggle to clear his good name. I would consider the show a virtual lock for a nomination and a strong contender to actually win. One would think Pulitzer Prize winner Disgraced would also make the cut, but interest in the show has cooled considerably and it will close long before Tony nominations are announced; the committee may decide the show has already received the recognition it deserves. Constellations will probably prove too heady and weird for its own good, although it still has a shot if one or more spring shows disappoint.

Best Musical Revival

NY City Ballet principal dancer Megan Fairchild (left) makes an impressive Broadway debut next to longtime scene stealer Jackie Hoffman (right) in the stellar revival of On the Town.

The obvious frontrunner here is John Rando's knockout revival of the Bernstein-Comden-Green tuner On the Town. I expect this show to do quite well come Tony time, and although it faces steep competition from Lincoln Center's sure-to-be lavish The King and I, this little show that could might just win it all on Tony Sunday. Meanwhile, Side Show's fortunes are harder to predict. Those familiar with the property, either from its original Broadway run or that production's cast recording, were over the moon about this reconceived revival, but the uninitiated seemed to not quite understand what all the fuss was about. Compounding Side Show's woes is the fact it has already shuttered, placing it out of sight and out of mind for many voters. For this dark musical to have any shot at a nomination, at least one of the spring revivals - On the Twentieth Century, Gigi, or the aforementioned King and I - will have to bomb, as there aren't enough shows to force an expansion of the category (and we may only get three nominees, just like last year).

Best Play Revival

Bradley Cooper (left) has been packing them in for his critically acclaimed run in The Elephant Man.

There are just enough play revivals scheduled for this season that the Tony committee could select five nominees if they were so inclined. Even if they don't, the majority of Best Revival of a Play nominees will come from the fall season, as there are only two more scheduled for the spring. The one sure thing is critical and box office smash The Elephant Man, which proves that Bradley Cooper can sell tickets and win accolades whether he's onscreen or onstage. Not quite as certain but still very likely is a nod for the excellently rendered You Can't Take It With You, which managed to overcome industry skepticism and make critics view this well-worn comedy afresh.

Given the lack of any other breakout hits, the rest of the nominations could go any number of ways. Both Love Letters and This is Our Youth received surprisingly strong reviews but only middling box office, and will have been closed for months by the time Tony voters cast their ballots. I wouldn't rule either show completely out, although I would favor Youth over Letters, as the latter was essentially a glorified reading and some voters will surely scoff at that. There's an outside chance Broadway's love of Glenn Close and John Lithgow leads to A Delicate Balance getting nominated, or that the huge box office of It's Only a Play gets it recognized, but I wouldn't count on either. I actually think It's Only a Play has hurt its chances by extending without its strongest asset (Nathan Lane), as two months of pulling in half the grosses it did this fall is going to take a lot of the sheen off this middling McNally revival.


Of course, all of this is subject to change based on the strength of the spring slate of productions, especially the Best Musical and Play categories. Check back soon to see which actors and actresses I think are sitting pretty when it comes to awards prospects, and feel free to let me know who you're rooting for in the comments.

For more 2015 Tony coverage, check out my thoughts on the latest Tony rule changes here.