2018 Tony Predictions: Best Revival

We're only a few short days away from the 2018 Tony Awards, when we'll learn which productions and artists from this past season have won Broadway's highest honor. We've spent plenty of time discussing the later, predicting all the acting races as well as many of the creative team awards, and now it's time to focus on the former. Which four productions will be deemed the best Broadway had to offer this past season? We're starting with the revivals, so read on to find out my thoughts!

Best Revival of a Play

James McArdle and Andrew Garfield in the Broadway revival of Angels in America.

Nominees: Angels in America; The Iceman Cometh; Lobby Hero; Three Tall Women; Travesties

While this category sports uniformly well received productions, I along with everyone else expect this award to go to Angels in America. Tony Kushner's Pulitzer Prize-winning epic is event theatre on a scale rarely seen, filled with the kind of weighty subject matter and big emotional beats that are like catnip to awards voters. In addition to being the most nominated play in Tony history, Angels has won practically every other Best Revival award in existence, so I see no reason why that would change come Sunday night.

Travesties is respected but heady, to the point where multiple reviewers admitted to being confused despite recognizing the craft on display; Tony voters probably feel similarly and will take their votes elsewhere. Lobby Hero marked Second Stage's Broadway debut in their dedicated home and established the Off-Broadway not-for-profit as a Broadway player to watch. I'm sure multiple Tony Awards are in Second Stage's future, but they will have to wait a bit longer to collect them. The Iceman Cometh earned surprisingly strong reviews for a production most industry insiders didn't seem all that interested in, but the tone of reviews is just measured enough that a win seems unlikely. If anything can wrest the crown away from Angels it will be Joe Mantello's new mounting of Three Tall Women, but I suspect most voters will view Glenda Jackson's presumed Best Actress win as a way to honor the entire production. 

(Fun fact: before becoming one of New York's go-to directors, Mantello was an actor who made his Broadway debut as Louis in the original mounting of Angels in America to Tony-nominated effect.)

Will & Should Win: Angels in America

Best Revival of a Musical

Lauren Ambrose in My Fair Lady at Lincoln Center.

Nominees: Carousel; My Fair Lady; Once On This Island

While this category sports fewer nominees than Best Revival of a Play, it *feels* more competitive as it lacks an obvious front runner. Carousel seems likely to be an also-ran, since the plethora of well executed individual elements haven't quite gelled as a whole for many theatregoers. Some feel the issues are inherent in the script and its questionable portrayal of domestic abuse, while others just think this particular production misses the mark in how it handles said elements, but either way the cumulative effect is a revival with enough naysayers to prevent a win.

Lincoln Center's lavish production of My Fair Lady was always destined to be this season's prestige revival, and it delivers on all fronts. Unlike Carousel, the creative team behind this show has addressed its problematic aspects in a way that appeals to modern sensibilities without betraying the original intent of the show. If anything, director Bartlett Sher's take on the material feels closer in spirit to Lerner and Loewe's actual text than many more "traditional" productions. As always, Sher has assembled a top notch cast to present a subtly revolutionary take on a show we all think we know, and it seems like once again Sher's efforts will result in a Best Revival win.

And yet I can't help but root for Michael Arden's breathtaking in-the-round staging of Once On This Island. While it lacks the sheer physical scale of its competitors it is no less ambitious, having beautifully transformed the Circle in the Square Theatre into an evocative island paradise overflowing with theatrical ingenuity and genuine heart. While I've heard whispers that some found My Fair Lady a tad too stately and reverential, I have yet to encounter anything but effusive praise for Once On This Island. It would certainly be a Tony moment to see this scrappy little show walk off with one of the night's biggest prizes, and while I don't expect it to happen, I can certainly hope for it.

Will Win: My Fair Lady
Should Win: Once On This Island (but My Fair Lady is also fantastic)


Keep checking this space for more 2018 Tony Award predictions in the weeks ahead! In the meantime, make your voice heard in the comments, and check out the rest of my Tony coverage by clicking below:

Tony Nominations React
Book and Score
Direction and Choreography
Featured Actor
Featured Actress
Actor
Actress

2018 Tony Predictions: Best Actor

We are now less than 2 weeks away from the 2018 Tony Awards, and speculation about who will win Broadway's highest honor on June 10th continues to intensify, including here at Broadway, Etc. After making predictions about the Featured Actor and Actress races, its time to move on to the Leading categories, where I will be predicting who will win as well as pointed out who most deserves it. Read on for more!

Best Actor in a Play

Andrew Garfield (left) as Prior Walter and Nathan Stewart-Jarrett as Belize in Angels in America.

Nominees: Andrew Garfield, Angels in America; Tom Hollander, Travesties; Jamie Parker, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child; Mark Rylance, Farinelli and the King; Denzel Washington, The Iceman Cometh

As with Best Featured Actress in a play, this category is mostly made up of Brits from transferred productions. Tom Hollander seems like the longest shot to win here, as Travesties just doesn't have the awards momentum to overtake the other, more lauded productions represented here. Meanwhile Mark Rylance has never gone through a Tony season without a win (he wasn't nominated for La Bete but won for Jerusalem that same season, and won one of two Tonys he was nominated for in 2014), but this doesn't feel like his year, and honestly he's probably busier campaigning for Farinelli and the King to win Best Play so his wife, the play's author, can experience Tony glory.

Which leaves us with Jamie Parker, Andrew Garfield, and Denzel Washington. Parker seemed like the man to beat heading into this season, before the love for Angels in America somewhat surprisingly surpassed the excitement about Harry Potter and the Cursed Child. Parker certainly isn't down for the count, but his path to Tony gold is a lot harder thanks to an abundance of love for the revival of Tony Kushner's two-part epic. Angels is certainly the more "serious" of the two works, which fairly or not gives Andrew Garfield the edge. But Washington is a dark horse for The Iceman Cometh, a production that pleasantly surprised a lot of critics and provides the Tony and Oscar winner with quite the showcase scene in the final act. I still expect Garfield to win, but I wouldn't be overly surprised to see Parker or Washington sneak through in an upset.

Will Win: Andrew Garfield, Angels in America
Should Win: Abstain

Best Actor in a Musical

Joshua Henry as Billy Bigelow in Carousel.

Nominees: Harry Hadden-Paton, My Fair Lady; Joshua Henry, Carousel; Tony Shalhoub, The Band's Visit; Ethan Slater, SpongeBob SquarePants

There were only 5 eligible performances in this category, a byproduct of it being a weaker year for musicals in general and a welcomed increase in musicals centered around women; 7 of this year's musicals have female leads or co-leads (a couple even feature 2 women sharing the spotlight with all men relegated to supporting roles). That said, the lack of quantity is certainly compensated for by an abundance of quality, with some truly excellent talent on display here. I can't imagine Tony Shalhoub actually winning for The Band's Visit - very much an ensemble show where his leading man status feels like a courtesy extended due to his fame - but he's certainly deserving of a nomination.

I'm not sure what to make of Ethan Slater's chances playing the title character of SpongeBob SquarePants. On the one hand, the young actor is beyond charismatic in his Broadway debut, so effortlessly embodying the eternally optimistic sea sponge that I have trouble imagining anyone else in the role. He has also already racked up Theatre World and Outer Critics' Circle Awards for his performance, so only a fool would count him out of the running (not to mention the Tonys love a Cinderella story). But at the same time, as great as Slater is, I'm not convinced that he's the best of the four nominated actors, or even the runner up.

Joshua Henry and Harry Hadden-Paton both take already great, award-worthy roles and run with them, exceeding expectations in two career milestone performances. Both also succeed in taking characters with extreme cases of toxic masculinity and making them both relatable and even empathetic for audiences hyper aware of how horribly sexist traditional male/female gender dynamics are. And no actor, male or female, tackled a role more closely associated with a specific performer than Hadden-Paton, who successfully makes My Fair Lady's caustic Henry Higgins his own in the wake of Rex Harrison's legendary, Oscar- and Tony-winning performance.

If I were voting, I'd probably choose Hadden-Paton, who I thought was perfection in a near perfect production. But Henry is offering up one of the best, if not the best, sung renditions of Carousel Broadway has ever seen. His "Soliloquy" is the musical highlight of the season, thanks both to his vocal prowess and his stellar acting ability, traits which carry through the entirety of his performance. Henry's just *feels* like a Tony-winning performance, thrillingly sung and expertly acted, and after two prior nominations it looks like the third time will be the charm for this consistently excellent performer.

Will Win: Joshua Henry, Carousel
Should Win: Harry Hadden-Paton, My Fair Lady (just barely edging out Henry)



Keep checking this space for more 2018 Tony Award predictions in the weeks ahead! In the meantime, make your voice heard in the comments, and check out the rest of my Tony coverage by clicking below:

Tony Nominations React
Book and Score
Direction and Choreography
Featured Actor
Featured Actress

2018 Tony Predictions: Best Featured Actor

Having tackled some of the creative behind the scenes categories, it is now time to turn the focus of our annual Tony Predictions to the acting categories. So let's get started with the Featured Actor categories, breaking down both who will win and who actually deserves to win. Read on for more!

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Nathan Lane as Roy Cohn in Angels in America.

Nominees: Anthony Boyle, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child; Michael Cera, Lobby Hero; Brian Tyree Henry, Lobby Hero; Nathan Lane, Angels in America; David Morse, The Iceman Cometh

Having not seen any of the nominated performances (I do have tickets to see both Angels in American and Cursed Child later this summer), I'm flying blind when it comes to predicting this category. David Morse feels like a long shot as the Broadway community doesn't seem especially passionate about The Iceman Cometh, but with that said his role of Larry Slade gives him plenty of material to work with in what is essentially a co-lead. More stagetime means more chances to have Tony-worthy moments, so the possibility of a surprise win for Morse is certainly there. Lobby Hero costars Michael Cera and Brian Tyree Henry may well cancel each other out, and the fact that Lobby Hero is now closed while the other productions are still running is another hurdle either actor will have to overcome. (Historically, being in a closed show severely handicaps a performer's chances of winning.)

Like many of this season's play categories, the race will likely to boil down to Harry Potter vs. Angels in America. Anthony Boyle won the Olivier for his role in Cursed Child's London premiere, while Nathan Lane was surprisingly not even nominated for playing force of nature Ray Cohn in Angels at London's National Theatre. That would appear to give Boyle the edge, but the American response to Angels has also outpaced the British reception, partially evidenced by Angels beating Cursed Child in total nominations. Lane's star wattage is also stronger on this side of the Atlantic, with the beloved character having been a fixture of the New York theatrical community for decades. Despite multiple nominations Lane hasn't won a Tony since The Producers all the way back in 2001, so it feels like he's overdue for another, especially since he has never been recognized for one of his many lauded dramatic roles. I think Lane will win the day, but don't count Boyle out just yet.

Will Win: Nathan Lane, Angels in America

Should Win: Abstain

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Gavin Lee as Squidward J. Tentacles in SpongeBob SquarePants.

Nominees: Norbert Leo Butz, My Fair Lady; Alexander Gemignani, Carousel; Grey Henson, Mean Girls; Gavin Lee, SpongeBob SquarePants; Ari'el Stachel, The Band's Visit

This is a competitive category that could go any number of ways, and might be an early indication of whether Tony voters have played it safe or gotten adventurous with their winners. Norbert Leo Butz is the elder statesman of the group, having won twice for his leading performances in Dirty Rotten Scoundrels  and Catch Me If You Can. He gives a fantastically layered, utterly transfixing performance in My Fair Lady, but is it enough to justify awarding him another trophy over the rest of the category, most of whom are first time nominees? If Butz's name is called on Tony Sunday, expect an evening of choices that rewards the established Broadway elite rather than the new kids on the block.

Ari'el Stachel sits in an interesting space between Butz and the other nominees. He's nominated for his Broadway debut, so a win for him would appear to signal the Tony voters are interested in rewarding new blood. But The Band's Visit is the widely presumed frontrunner for Best Musical, so picking the one representative from that show would be a fairly safe choice. Personally, while I don't think Stachel is bad by any stretch of the imagination, I'm also hard pressed to tell you exactly what his character does in the show. Being unmemorable in a field of flashy performances is a handicap I'm not sure Stachel can overcome (and should Band's Visit be the runaway favorite for the big awards, Tony voters might want to spread the love).

The other nominees are more exciting choices, unexpected but not undeserving. While Alexander Gemignani is the longest shot of the group, he does extraordinary things with Enoch Snow in Carousel, a role which would easily fade into the background in the hands of a lesser performer. But I can't see him triumphing over SpongeBob's Gavin Lee and Mean Girls' Grey Henson, both supremely charismatic performers gifted with bona fide showstoppers. Lee's comic stylings have been polished to a high shine, and watching him tap dance his way through "I'm Not a Loser" is the most joyous part of a show overflowing with unbridled fun. Henson is rougher around the edges, but there's no denying the infectious glee he brings to Mean Girls' "too gay to function" Damian, a clear crowd favorite (so much so the writers added a second big number for Hensen between the DC tryout and Broadway).

Honestly, Butz probably *deserves* this award the most. The cynic in me thinks Tony voters will ultimately choose Stachel for having the most dramatic performance, but recent winners in this category show a refreshing willingness to acknowledge how difficult a comedic performance can be. For that reason, I'm going out on a limb and predicting Gavin Lee will tap his way to victory, proving once and for all that he is NOT a loser.

Will Win: Gavin Lee, SpongeBob SquarePants

Should Win: Norbert Leo Butz, My Fair Lady

Should Have Been Nominated: Alex Newell for his gender bending, rough raising Asaka in Once on this Island 

Keep checking this space for more 2018 Tony Award predictions in the weeks ahead! In the meantime, make your voice heard in the comments, and check out the rest of my Tony coverage by clicking below:

Tony Nominations React
Best Book and Score
Best Direction and Choreography