2014 Tony Nominations React

Previous Tony-nominee Jonathan Groff and tenuously-connected-to-Broadway Lucy Liu announce the 2014 Tony Award nominations.

They're here!  The 2014 Tony Award nominees were announced bright and early this morning, and there is plenty to discuss (some of it surprising, some of it less so).  But before we go any further, here are the complete list of nominees in the Big 12 categories.  The asterisks indicate nominees that I correctly predicted, and the asterisks in parentheses indicate Wildcard picks that succeeded in making the cut.

Best Play
Act One
*All The Way 
*Casa Valentina 
*Mothers and Sons
*Outside Mullingar

Best Musical
*After Midnight
*Aladdin
*Beautiful: The Carole King Musical
*A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder

Best Revival of a Play
*The Cripple of Inishmaan
*The Glass Menagerie
(*)A Raisin in the Sun
*Twelfth Night

Best Revival of a Musical
*Hedwig and the Angry Inch
*Les Misérables
*Violet

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play
Samuel Barnett, Twelfth Night
*Bryan Cranston, All The Way
*Chris O'Dowd, Of Mice and Men
Mark Rylance, Richard III
*Tony Shalhoub, Act One

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play
*Tyne Daly, Mothers and Sons
(*)LaTanya Richardson Jackson, A Raisin in the Sun
*Cherry Jones, The Glass Menagerie
*Audra McDonald, Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grill
*Estelle Parsons, The Velocity of Autumn

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical
*Neil Patrick Harris, Hedwig and the Angry Inch
(*)Ramin Karimloo, Les Misérables
*Andy Karl, Rocky
*Jefferson Mays, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
*Bryce Pinkham, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical
(*)Mary Bridget Davies, A Night with Janis Joplin
*Sutton Foster, Violet
*Idina Menzel, If/Then
*Jessie Mueller, Beautiful: The Carole King Musical
*Kelli O'Hara, The Bridges of Madison County

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play
*Reed Birney, Casa Valentina
*Paul Chahidi, Twelfth Night
(*)Stephen Fry, Twelfth Night
*Mark Rylance, Twelfth Night
*Brian J. Smith, The Glass Menagerie

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play
Sarah Greene, The Cripple of Inishmaan
*Celia Keenan-Bolger, The Glass Menagerie
*Sophie Okonedo, A Raisin in the Sun
*Anika Noni Rose, A Raisin in the Sun
*Mare Winningham, Casa Valentina

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical
*Danny Burstein, Cabaret
*Nick Cordero, Bullets Over Broadway
*Joshua Henry, Violet
*James Monroe Iglehart, Aladdin
*Jarrod Spector, Beautiful: The Carole King Musical

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical
*Linda Emond, Cabaret
Lena Hall, Hedwig and the Angry Inch
*Anika Larsen, Beautiful: The Carole King Musical
*Adriane Lenox, After Midnight
(*)Lauren Worsham, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder


First of all, I'm pretty damn pleased with the accuracy of my guesses.  If you only look at my official predictions, I have an 80% accuracy rate, which jumps to 91% if you include Wildcard predictions as correct guesses.  Now here are some more thoughts on the nominees:

-Considering that most critics felt this was a weak season for new plays on Broadway, I'm surprised to see five nominees in that category while the Best Musical race remains unexpectedly limited to four contenders.  And I'm especially surprised that The Realistic Joneses didn't make the cut even with an expanded field; I guess the nominations committee found the play more off-putting than the press (which was still sharply divided).

-Speaking of Best Musical, I personally am bummed they didn't see fit to nominate The Bridges of Madison County for the top prize.  The show is by no means perfect, but it has an artistic ambition rarely seen on Broadway these days, and I wish that had been acknowledged with a nomination (ditto for If/Then, although having not yet seen that show I don't have as strong an opinion about it's exclusion).

-I try not to actively root against shows, but I feel validated by the relative scarcity of nominations for Rocky.  Apparently the Tony committee was as nonplussed about that misfire as I was.  Note:  While it is not a category I predicted, Alex Timbers' exclusion from the Best Director race is one of the major surprises of the day.

-Why would the Tony committee go through the trouble of deeming Cabaret eligible for Best Revival (when according to the rules it really shouldn't be) only to not nominate it?  That seems unnecessarily cruel and a bit of a slap in the face to Roundabout.  Note:  The exclusion of Cabaret from the category was my Wildcard prediction for that race.  Just sayin'.

-Twelfth Night was undeniably amazing (and easily the best production of that play I've ever seen), but I am gobsmacked by just how well the show did in the acting nominations.  There are five total nods shared among its ensemble, including a surprising but well deserved nod for Samuel Bartlett's Viola.  Sidenote:  In my midseason predictions, I mentioned Bartlett as a dark horse contender, but by the time I made my official predictions I thought some of the heat for this production had died down.  Clearly I was wrong.

-I never considered her a serious contender to win, but I am still shocked by Marin Mazzie's exclusion from the Best Featured Actress in a Musical race.  That role was highly sought after and she beat out some of the industry's biggest name to secure it.  Considering Mazzie has been rather forthcoming with her desire for a Tony Award (despite 3 career nominations she's never won), this can't be what she wanted or expected to happen.

-Congratulations to Mary Bridget Davis for breaking into the extremely competitive Best Actress in a Musical Race.  While I personally skipped A Night with Janis Joplin because that music doesn't appeal to me, I heard nothing but complimentary things about her and she should be proud that she made enough of an impression to get nominated despite her show being long closed.

-I really really REALLY wish the committee had nominated Lisa O'Hare's acidic Sibella Hallward along with Lauren Worsham's equally deserving Phoebe D'Ysquith.  A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder has one of the most talented quartet of leads of any Broadway show right now, and it would have been wonderful to see all four of them recognized with nominations.



I will of course have lots more Tony coverage in the coming weeks (including some reviews for more Tony nominated shows), but before I go I want to leave you with one final thought.  Every year there is a lot of talk about who gets "snubbed" by the Tonys, and this year there seems to be even more chatter than normal.  But let's not allow the grousing and griping to take away from the achievement of the people who did get nominated; it is quite an achievement, and they deserve to be celebrated.

Check back all month for more Tony coverage!  And for a more in-depth look at my nominee predictions, look here:
Production
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Featured Actor/Actress

2014 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part IV (Featured Actor/Actress)

I've already gone into great detail about the productions and leading actors/actresses I expect to wake up to good news on Tuesday morning.  (Sidenote: why on earth are Tony nominations announced so early when the people they're honoring typically don't go into work until 6 pm or later?)  Now I'm going to attempt the most difficult predictions of all:  the Featured Actor and Actress nominees.

Why are these categories so hard to predict?  Because whereas the production and lead actor categories have a relatively limited pool of eligible nominees, almost everyone who sets foot on a Broadway stage is could conceivably be nominated in the Featured categories, which makes narrowing things down much more difficult.  Historically, this is also the area with the biggest number of "surprise" nominations for people who weren't on anyone's radar.  (Did you know who Elizabeth A. Davis was before the 2012 Tony nominations?  Do you know who she is now???)  But using my time honored combination of first hand experience, industry buzz, and gut feeling, I'm making predictions anyway, including at least one Wildcard per category that could potentially unseat one of my official guesses.

Best Featured Actress (Play)

Oscar-nominee Sophie Okonedo will probably be able to add "Tony nominee" to her resume after tomorrow's nominations are announced.

The sure-bet here is Celia Keenan-Bolger for her Laura in last fall's acclaimed The Glass Menagerie.  She will certainly be joined by at least one of the ladies from A Raisin in the Sun, although at this point deciding between Sophie Okonedo and Anika Noni Rose feels arbitrary.  Okonedo got slightly more rapturous reviews, although she is also playing the same role that won Audra McDonald the Tony only ten years ago, which is a mighty powerful memory to overcome.  Rose is a previous Tony winner and is playing the one female role which wasn't honored with an award the last time around, so recognizing her would allow Tony voters to feel less like they're repeating themselves.  There's also the very real possibility the committee will double down and nominate both women, which is what my gut is telling me at this moment.

After that, things get harder to predict.  Andrea Martin just won the Tony last year, but that hasn't mattered much to voters recently (see Judith Light's back-to-back wins), and the committee tends to be impressed by actors tackling multiple roles like Martin does in Act One.  Although I have not personally seen or even heard much buzz about Casa Valentina, Mare Winningham recently scored herself an Outer Critics Circle nomination for her work in that Harvey Fierstein play, which makes her a contender here as well.  And there is the dim but still possible chance that Jayne Houdyshell is remembered for her role as the Nurse in the ill-fated Romeo & Juliet revival from last fall; she did manage to beat out all of her Follies costars a couple of years ago, although that show was much better liked than Romeo.

Nominees:
Celia Keenan-Bolger, The Glass Menagerie
Andrea Martin, Act One
Sophie Okonedo, A Raisin in the Sun
Anika Noni Rose, A Raisin in the Sun
Mare Winningham, Casa Valentina

Wildcard:
Jayn Houdyshell, Romeo & Juliet

Beat Featured Actor (Play)

Honestly, any of the men from last fall's Twelfth Night are worthy of a Tony nominations, although it is Mark Rylance (left) and Paul Chahidi (second from left) who have the greatest chance of actually being recognized.

Have they gone ahead and engraved this award with Mark Rylance's name yet?  They might as well, because his buzzed about Olivia in Twelfth Night was such a master class in acting I cannot imagine anyone else wresting this category away from him.  His nomination is a sure thing, and I actually have a very good feeling about his co-star Paul Chahidi being recognized as well for his outstanding Maria.  Chahidi took a role that typically feels more like a narrative device and turned it into a fully fledged, entirely winsome character, and I believe he will be rewarded for it.  My gut is also telling me that Brian J. Smith will complete The Glass Menagerie's hat trick of garnering nominations for the entire cast in all four acting categories.

I'm at a loss as to who else will be competing in this category; there is no shortage of eligible nominees thanks to the abundance of male-dominated plays this season.  Billy Crudup inexplicably scored a Tony nomination for the 2011 revival of Tom Stoppard's Arcadia despite being atrocious in the role; could a similar outcome greet his performance in Waiting for Godot?  Bobby Steggert is giving one of his most naturalistic performances yet in Mothers and Sons and isn't entirely out of the running, although that show is primarily viewed as a Tyne Daly vehicle.  Going back to the Shakespeare plays, Stephen Fry was roundly praised for his Malvolio in Twelfth Night, although having three nominees from the same show seems like a bit much.  All the Way's John McMartin landed among the Outer Critics' list of Best Featured Actors, and Casa Valentina's Reed Birney managed a similar feat with the Drama Desk awards, so both of those actors should be considered in the running as well.

Nominees:
Reed Birney, Casa Valentina
Paul Chahidi, Twelfth Night
Mark Rylance, Twelfth Night
Brian J. Smith, The Glass Menagerie
Bobby Steggert, Mothers and Sons

Wildcard:
Stephen Fry, Twelfth Night

Best Featured Actress (Musical)

I had a snappy caption for this photo of Marin Mazzie as Helen Sinclair, but the Bullets Over Broadway star very specifically instructed me not to speak.

Being ruled a featured actress instead of a lead is the best thing that could have happened to Marin Mazzie this year, as moving her into this less competitive category virtually guarantees a nomination for her boozy diva in Bullets Over Broadway.  And it would take quite an unexpected turn of events to keep Linda Emond out of the running for her Fraulein Schneider in Cabaret (who really deserved to win for her stellar performance in Death of a Salesman, so the committee kind of owes her).  There's also a guaranteed nomination in the cards for one of A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder's ladies, even though in my ideal world both Lisa O'Hare and Lauren Worsham would be recognized for their outstanding work.  If only one can make the cut, my money is on O'Hare, whose upwardly mobile Sibella Hallward is the more interesting of the two characters since she subverts the typical ingénue troupes. 

Conventional wisdom holds that at least one more female from Bullets Over Broadway will get nominated, although whether it ends up being rising star Betsy Wolfe or Helene York's ditzy blonde is a toss up.  York is more of an unknown, and considering how much Tony voters love a good Cinderella story, York may benefit from their desire to try and crown a new star.  I also think Adriane Lenox has a strong chance at a nomination for her work in After Midnight, a prospect helped by the fact that she is the highest profile stable element of the show (she's been with the production since the beginning, while the Guest Star slot gets a new performer every month or two).  And finally, Anika Larson has scored both a Drama Desk and Outer Critics Circle nomination for her work in Beautiful, which makes her a major contender for Tony recognition as well.

Nominees:
Linda Edmond, Cabaret
Anika Larson, Beautiful
Adriane Lenox, After Midnight
Marin Mazzie, Bullets Over Broadway
Lisa O'Hare, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder

Wildcards:
Lauren Worsham, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
Helene York, Bullets Over Broadway

Best Featured Actor (Musical)

"Friend Like Me" is the showstopper of the season, and James Monroe Iglehart is a large reason why it works as well as it does.  If that doesn't merit a Tony nomination, I don't know what does.

Like Best Featured Actor in a Play, there is a clear frontrunner for this award right now, and his name is James Monroe Inglehart.  His wisecracking Genie has made him the breakout star of Aladdin, with even the show's detractors admitting that Inglehart is the real deal.  His nomination is assured, and the only real question is who will be joining him.  Danny Burnstein seems like a sure thing for his performance as Herr Schultz in Cabaret; the fact that this Broadway stalwart has not been rewarded with the industry's highest honor is a fact that needs to change sooner rather than later (I will forever maintain that he was ROBBED of the 2012 Best Actor Tony for his revelatory performance in Follies).  And Nick Cordero has been nominated for every acting award so far this season, so I'd consider the Bullets Over Broadway player another lock for a nomination.

As for the remaining two slots, it's really anyone's guess, as there has been no consistency among the nominees in the other awards-given bodies (which tend to lump Broadway and Off-Broadway performances together, meaning less Broadway talent makes the cut).  Could Jarrod Spector benefit from the theatrical community's increasingly warm feelings towards Beautiful?  Will Tony nominators remember Bobby Steggert's performance in Big Fish?  Will the good looking, big voiced Joshua Henry manage to get his second career Tony nod for his supporting work in Violet?  At this point a well-liked performer like If/Then's Anthony Rapp has a decent shot at nabbing a nomination despite being overshadowed by several of his costars in a show that the critics didn't much care for.  There is even the off chance that one of the men from Les Miserables makes the cut, although considering most of those performers are more singers than actors that could raise a few eyebrows.

Nominees:
Danny Burnstein, Cabaret
Nick Cordero, Bullets Over Broadway
Joshua Henry, Violet
James Monroe Inglehart, Aladdin
Jarrod Spector, Beautiful

Wildcard:
Bobby Steggert, Big Fish


Well, that caps off my 2014 Tony Awards predictions!  We'll find out how right (or wrong) I was when the official nominations are announced tomorrow morning, so check back in the next couple of days to see how I did.  Until then, you can read the rest of my Tony Awards coverage here:

2014 Tony Predictions Part I (Production)
2014 Tony Predictions Part II (Best Actress)
2014 Tony Predictions Part III (Best Actor)

2014 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part III (Best Actor)

As the announcement of the 2014 Tony nominees draws ever closer, I continue my valiant (insane?) effort to try and predict the nominees in all the major categories.  I've already tackled the production and Best Actress categories; today I take my best guess at Best Actor.  Again, my predictions are based on a very unscientific mixture of first-hand experience, industry hearsay, and gut feeling (but I tend to have a pretty good record at these sorts of things).  And I will always pick a Wildcard performer who I think has the greatest chance of unseating one of my presumptive five nominees.

On with the show!

Best Actor

Bryan Cranston should probably look into expanding the trophy wing of his house in the near future.

An embarrassment of riches that will probably see a fair amount of Hollywood talent nominated, the Best Actor race is a difficult one for me to get a read on.  No one seems to be a runaway favorite for either a nomination or a win, but some bets are safer than others.  Everybody loved Bryan Cranston in Breaking Bad, and it sounds like his acting skills have made the transition to the stage intact.  He's as close to a sure thing in this category as they come.  A week ago I would have considered The Glass Menagerie's Zachary Quinto a lock in this category, but his absence from both the Drama Desk and Outer Critics Circle lists makes his position rather precarious.  Formerly presumptive nominee Denzel Washington may also be in danger, as the theatrical community doesn't seem nearly as enamored with his performance in A Raisin in the Sun as they were with his (in my opinion overrated) star turn in Fences a few seasons back.

So if two of the presumptive nominees are in danger of losing their slots, who is challenging them?  For starters, Patrick Stewart and Ian McKellen, theatrical institutions who were roundly praised for their work in both Waiting for Godot and No Man's Land.  McKellen in particular has stated that this year's shows are likely his Broadway swan song, which means this could be the last chance ever for Tony voters to honor him with a second statuette (and his work in No Man's Land has already garnered him nods in the other guild awards).  Chris O'Dowd has wowed critics with his work as the gentle giant Lennie in Of Mice and Men, an award-bait role if there ever was one (mentally handicapped AND a tragic death).  And both Tony Shalhoub and Santino Fontano received raves for their work in Lincoln Center's Act One, although I doubt the category has room for both of them.  Given Shalhoub's seniority, and I'd say he has the edge, and Fontano will just have to console himself with last year's nomination and those royalty checks from the Frozen soundtrack.

In the unlikely but still possible category we have theatre vets Patrick Page and Roger Rees, for Casa Valentina and The Winslow Boy respectively.  Rees seemed to be more of the clear-cut lead of his show (Valentina is very much an ensemble piece), so if one of them was going to sneak in here it would be him.  I also wouldn't rule out Daniel Radcliffe, who gets steadily better reviews with each Broadway outing, although his role in The Cripple of Inishmaan doesn't allow him to show the range the other contenders in this category possess.

Nominees:
Bryan Cranston, All the Way
Chris O'Dowd, Of Mice and Men
Ian McKellen, No Man's Land
Zachary Quinto, The Glass Menagerie
Tony Shalhoub, Act One

Wildcards:
Daniel Radcliffe, The Cripple of Inishmaan
Denzel Washington, A Raisin in the Sun

Best Actor in a Musical

I don't remember this much smiling in Rocky, either onstage or from the audience.

In surveying this category, I am struck by how many men are doing solid work in questionable productions.  Ramin Karimloo single-handedly makes the ill-advised Les Miserables watchable, and Andy Karl manages to rise above the truly awful material he's given in Rocky to become a bonafide Broadway star.  Despite the questionable quality of their shows, I think both men are in a good positions to score their first-ever Tony nominations on Tuesday, although neither is a sure thing.  That honor goes to Neil Patrick Harris, who blew almost everyone away as a transgendered rocker in Hedwig and the Angry Inch.  The fact the beloved cult musical is even on Broadway is entirely due to Harris' attachment to the property, and the fact that all the critics loved it is a testament to how well the multitalented entertainer embodies the spirit of the piece.  (Besides, we kind of owe him for his years of being an amazing Tony host and all around enthusiastic theatre ambassador.)

Then we have the question of what to do about Jefferson Mays' and Bryce Pinkham's dual starring turns in A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder.  Mays has long been considered a frontrunner in this category for his madcap portrayal of all eight members of the doomed D'Ysquith clan, but Pinkham is every bit as good in the tougher and arguably more demanding role (if Pinkham wasn't carrying the show, Mays wouldn't be free to ham it up so gleefully).  In recent years, having two strong male co-leads has led to both men scoring nominations (see Josh Gad and Andrew Rannells in The Book of Mormon, or Billy Porter and Stark Sands in Kinky Boots), and that is a distinct possibility here.  I personally am rooting for Pinkham, who blew me away with his effortless charm and gorgeous tenor.

But if all five of the above men make it, that leaves no room for the very deserving Norbert Leo Butz and Steven Pasquale, which seems almost criminal given their amazing performances this season.  Although Big Fish as a show sharply divided audiences and critics, no one can argue with the Herculean work Butz did in the lead role; however, with two wins and four total nominations to his name, I think the Tony committee will choose to spread the wealth this year and leave Butz out of consideration.  But Pasquale has no previous nominations and is sensational in The Bridges of Madison County, with singing and acting chops every bit the equal to his luminous costar Kelli O'Hara.  Ultimately, I think a nomination is in the cards for Pasquale, most likely to the detriment of Karimloo, who will be done in by the critical indifference to his show.  At least everyone can take comfort in the fact they don't have to compete against Alan Cumming's resurrected Emcee, since the Scottish thespian is ineligible due to the fact that he already won the Tony the last time he played the role.

Nominees:
Neil Patrick Harris, Hedwig and the Angry Inch
Andy Karl, Rocky
Jefferson Mays, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
Steven Pasquale, The Bridges of Madison County
Bryce Pinkham, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder

Wildcards:
Norbert Leo Butz, Big Fish
Ramin Karimloo, Les Miserables


That's all for now.  Join me tomorrow for the toughest and sometimes most arbitrary predictions of the year:  Best Featured Actor and Actress!

See the rest of my Tony coverage:
2014 Tony Nominee Predictions Part I (Production)
2014 Tony Nominee Predictions Part II (Best Actress)

2014 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part II (Best Actress)

It's that time of year again; the Tony Award nominations are set to be announced this Tuesday, and I am in full Tony mode here at Broadway, Etc.  Yesterday, I made my best guesses as to which shows would find themselves nominated in the production categories (including my theories about how the recent Tony rule change might affect this year's races).  Today I tackle the harder to predict Lead Actress races, with more eligible nominees and proportionally fewer slots to go around.  These are some of the most competitive categories of the year, with many deserving women vying for the precious few nominations.

As always, I'm using a combination of first-hand experience, hearsay, and gut feeling to come up with these predictions.  I will also pick one Wildcard for each category, representing the person I feel has the best chance of unseating one of my five presumptive nominees for a chance at the big prize.  (Or sometimes I pick two wildcards.  It's my blog, I can do what I want.)  Read on to see who I think this year's lucky ladies will be!

Best Actress

Should Audra McDonald win the Best Actress in a Play category, she would enter the record books as having more Tony Awards than any other performer AND being the first actress to win awards in all four acting categories. 

There have been a huge number of plays produced on Broadway this season (limited runs really increase the number of shows can you can cram into one year).  Unfortunately, many of those plays have been male driven, meaning the Best Actress in a Play category isn't as stacked with talent as one might expect, although the eligible performances are still might impressive.  Cherry Jones was universally praised for her Amanda in last fall's The Glass Menagerie, and will almost surely be recognized with a nomination.  Tyne Daly is also virtually guaranteed a nomination for her bigoted (but not really) matriarch in Terrence McNally's Mothers and Sons; some committee members will also probably feel guilty that the 2012 race didn't have room for Daly's towering Maria Callas in Master Class and will be looking to make it up to her.

In Tony predictions, it almost never pays to bet against Audra McDonald, and the acclaimed singing actress is currently making a very strong case for a record-breaking sixth Tony Award (more than any other performer) with her starring turn in Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grill.  Her work in the 90-minute, one woman show will certainly land her among this year's nominees.  And although critics were lukewarm to The Velocity of Autumn, they universally praised 83-year-old Estelle Parson's performance in the two-hander.  It would be very surprising to see her name left out of this year's nominee list, especially considering that she has never actually won a Tony despite her long and illustrious career.

Which leaves one slot available for the rest of the season's lead actresses to fight over.  The last time A Raisin in the Sun was on Broadway, Phylicia Rashad won Best Actress her Lena Younger; LaTanya Richardson Jackson is certainly in the running for playing the same role.  But Rashad made such a strong impression 10 years ago it may keep Jackson out of serious consideration, a situation not helped by the fact that Jackson didn't have the benefit of a full rehearsal period (she took over for the previously announced Diahann Carroll when the latter actress bowed out during rehearsals) .  The highly praised ensemble of The Realistic Joneses could also produce a nominee, although it's debatable whether Toni Collette or Marisa Tomei has the edge.  However, I just have this sneaking suspicion that Rebecca Hall's universally praised performance in Roundabout's revival of Machinal will make her one of this year's surprise nominees, knocking Jackson out of the race.

Nominees:
Tyne Daly, Mothers and Sons
Rebecca Hall, Machinal
Cherry Jones, The Glass Menagerie
Audra McDonald, Lady Day at Emerson's Bar & Grill
Estelle Parsons, The Velocity of Autumn

Wildcard:
LaTanya Richardson Jackson, A Raisin in the Sun

Best Actress in a Musical

If Kelli O'Hara can't win a Tony for her absolutely stunning work in The Bridges of Madison County, she might as well just throw in the towel and take up gardening or something.

This is, hands down, the most competitive race of the year (and perhaps the past several years).  For once, the phrase "it's an honor just to be nominated" will not be an empty pleasantry, because this category features some of the most critically praised, beloved women currently working in the industry, and it is truly anyone's guess of who will be recognized on Tuesday.

As far as untouchables go, I would say that Kelli O'Hara, Idina Menzel, and Sutton Foster have had a seat reserved for them at Radio City since their respective projects were announced.  All three shows are positively built around these women's momentous talents, and all of them have walked the Tony red carpet multiple times (of the three, only O'Hara has never actually won, something that I'm praying changes this year).  Most importantly, all three women are sensational in their chosen vehicles, and even critics who weren't won over by the productions as a whole conceded that these three women are the real deal.  The exclusion of any one of them would surely rank as the year's biggest snub.

Trailing just behind them in current Broadway "It Girl" Jessie Mueller, who went from being an unknown only three years ago to headlining her own Broadway show.  She isn't *quite* guaranteed a nomination for her work as Carole King in Beautiful, but I and most industry insiders would be shocked if she didn't make the cut.  The final slot in this category is likely reserved for Oscar-nominated actress Michelle Williams' Broadway debut in Cabaret.  Sally Bowles is certainly an award-worthy role - it won Liza Minelli the Oscar and Natasha Richardson the Tony - but Williams received a rather cool critical reception with many reviews finding her to be on of this revival's weakest aspects.  I still think there is enough support for her to be nominated (her involvement seemed to be the point where Cabaret transformed from a "Really? Again?" show into a "Must See"), but she is most in danger of losing her spot.

I don't foresee anyone unseating the five above ladies, and I'm tempted to not even name a Wildcard, but in the spirit of expecting the unexpected I will say that Mary Bridget Davies' spot on impersonation of Janis Joplin in A Night with Janis Joplin just might have made enough of an impression to allow her to break into such a tough category.  The likeable Margo Siebert will have to take solace that Rocky opened in a very competitive year, and to be quite honest the material she was given let her down.

Nominees
Sutton Foster, Violet
Idina Menzel, If/Then
Jessie Mueller, Beautiful
Kelli O'Hara, The Bridges of Madison County
Michelle Williams, Cabaret

Wildcard
Mary Bridget Davies, A Night with Janis Joplin


That covers this year's leading ladies; check back tomorrow for my predictions for the leading men who will walk the red carpet as nominees on Sunday, June 8th.  And while you're waiting, be sure to check out the rest of my Tony coverage below:

2014 Tony Nominee Predictions Part I (Production)

2014 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part I (Production)

And just like that, it's Tony time!  After the seemingly never-ending winter endured by New York and the rest of the country, spring has sprung and with it comes a veritable deluge of new Broadway openings.  With Tony nominations just around the corner, it's time for my annual guessing game of which shows and performers will be waking up to very good news on Tuesday, April 29th. 

As always, I am working on a combination of firsthand experience, educated guesses, and wild speculation.  And just to give myself a bit of a buffer, I will be picking one Wildcard nominee in each category, representing the person or production I think most likely to unseat one of my official guesses (the Tony voters love throwing in a curveball every now and again).  Today I will focus on the production categories, since they are typically the easiest to predict, before following with my prediction for Lead Actor, Lead Actress and then, for the first time ever, Featured Actor/Actress.  Now let's make some predictions!

Best Musical

Every other piece on A Gentleman's Guide inevitably uses a picture of one of Jefferson Mays' 8 characters, so I'm bucking the trend and highlighting his equally talented costars Lisa O'Hare and Bryce Pinkham.

Thanks to a much discussed rule change back in February, this year's Best Musical category could potentially be expanded to five nominees instead of the traditional four, making things that much trickier to predict.  Even though the committee does not have to pick five nominees, I can't imagine they would have gone through the trouble of changing the rules not to exercise their newfound power this season.  That said, while this year saw an unusually high number of new musicals open on Broadway, very few were critical homeruns, so which five shows will make the cut is up for debate.

As far as sure things, I'd consider Disney's Aladdin a guaranteed nominee since many critics felt it was the Mouse House's most successful productions since The Lion King.  A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder has taken to bragging that it is the "best reviewed musical of the season," a claim which is backed up by the fact that it leads both the Drama Desk and Outer Critics Circle Awards in total nominations; I think this delightfully clever farce will receive a well-earned nomination.  And although its status as a revue rather than a traditional book musical will hurt its chances of actually winning, the well-received After Midnight is a likely lock for a nomination as well.

After that, it's anyone's guess.  Bullets Over Broadway divided critics much more than I expected it to, and is conspicuously absent from the Drama Desk and Outer Critics lists (it did get a shout out from the Drama League, though).  Still, the show has such a wealth of talent involved and is one of the more commercial offerings of the season, so it can't be ruled out completely.  I personally thought Rocky was a bit of a train wreck, no matter how impressive the final twenty minutes are, but that show has done well in the guild nominations so far.  And the theatre community has definitely warmed to Beautiful, which has done consistently solid business since quietly opening this past January.  But Tony nominators typically like to include one "artsy" musical (think Next to Normal or Fela!), and the show most likely to fill that slot is Jason Robert Brown's gorgeous The Bridges of Madison County over the ambitious but flawed If/Then.  I'm hoping Bridges manages to KO Rocky (a great finale does not a good show make!), with Beautiful taking the final slot by being the least offensive option among the remaining shows.

Nominees:
After Midnight
Aladdin
Beautiful
The Bridges of Madison County
A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder

Wildcard:
Rocky

Best Play

Bryan Cranston and company are going All the Way...to the Tonys!

Unlike the Best Musical category, I don't think there are enough strong productions in this category to cause the Tony committee to nominate five shows.  I think we will see the traditional four nominees, with the safest bet being the Bryan Cranston-led All the Way.  Will Eno's bizarre, divisive The Realistic Joneses probably has enough admirers to net a nomination, especially given the strength of its starry cast.  Given the theatre community's respect for Terrance McNally and the fact that the play probably hits *very* close to home with a lot of Tony voters, I think Mothers and Sons has a good shot at a nomination, despite being mostly overlooked by the various guild awards.  The final slot will go to either Harvey Fierstein's Casa Valentina or John Patrick Shanely's Outside Mullingar.  Both authors are highly respected among the theatrical community, although Fierstein's decades of musical bookwriting may have damaged his playwriting street cred.  Then again, the entire community seems to love Fierstein not just as an artist but as a person, and his play is much fresher in voters' minds than the now shuttered Mullingar.  I'm going to stick by my guns and predict that Casa wins out in the end, although I won't be surprised if the committee does go with five nominees just to avoid having to choose.

Nominees:
All the Way
Casa Valentina
Mothers and Sons
The Realistic Jonses

Wildcard:
Outside Mullingar

Best Musical Revival

You guys, there is a LOT of cross dressing happening on Broadway these days.

The flip side of the rule change regarding the number of production category nominees is the much less talked about but in some ways more interesting possibility that the committee can REDUCE the number of slots in years with a lack of eligible quality productions.  I can't prove it, but I'm guessing that change is in direct response to the fact that for the past few years, Best Revival of a Musical has been the Tony's equivalent to a participation award; everyone who's eligible typically gets nominated.  Since the committee went out of its way to rule Roundabout's revival of their Cabaret revival eligible (even though it is the exact same production with the exact same creative team that won this award in 1998), I'm guessing we will see a four-nominee category where everything that could be included is.

Nominees:
Cabaret
Hedwig and the Angry Inch
Les Miserables
Violet

Wildcard:
The exclusion of Cabaret from this list

Best Play Revival

Of Mice and Men should get a Tony nomination, assuming star James Franco didn't call any members of the nominating committee a "little bitch."

The musicals may get all the press, but this has been an absolutely fantastic year for play revivals as well, and since the repertory productions from this fall are each being considered separately, there are 14(!) eligible shows in this category, many with fantastic reviews.  Even with 5 nominees someone is going to get snubbed, but there are a few productions I consider a lock for recognition.  Everyone and their mother went gaga over John Tiffany's The Glass Menagerie (except me, who named it one of the Worst Shows of 2013), and it is sure to be nominated.  So is the Mark Rylance-led Twelfth Night, a much more deserving show that is probably the frontrunner to win the whole thing.  Heading into the spring I would have considered the Denzel Washington-led A Raisin in the Sun a near certainty, but critics weren't as enthusiastic about it as they were about Fences a few seasons back.

Meanwhile, Roundabout got fantastic reviews for both The Winslow Boy and Machinal, although both shows have been off the boards for so long they probably aren't real contenders for recognition.  Patrick Stewart and Ian McKellan made the famously obtuse Waiting for Godot feel fresh and accessible, and given that American esteem for the two British thespians only increases with time they could very well push that production into contention.  Of Mice and Men and The Cripple of Inishmaan are both star-driven revivals that don't have the buzz of Washington's play but are doing pretty fantastic business, and Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grill has the good fortune of being a starring vehicle for Broadway's reigning queen, Audra McDonald.  Of these, I think the newness factor will work in Inishmaan's favor, while Waiting for Godot and Of Mice and Men's star power will push them over the edge to the semi-surprising exclusion of A Raisin in the Sun.  Audra McDonald's guaranteed acting nomination for Lady Day will likely be seen by the nominations committee as a way to honor that entire production.

Nominees:
The Cripple of Inishmaan
The Glass Menagerie
Of Mice and Men
Twelfth Night
Waiting for Godot

Wildcard: 
A Raisin in the Sun


Those are my picks for the production categories; check back tomorrow to see my predictions for Best Actress, which includes perhaps the most competitive race of the season.

A Transatlantic Transfer Worth Making the Journey

Review: The Cripple of Inishmaan

We're not in Hogwarts anymore.

Things are not what they seem in the solidly staged and superbly acted Broadway revival of Martin McDonagh's The Cripple of Inishmaan.  For one thing, despite a marketing campaign consisting entirely of photos of leading man Daniel Radcliffe, the former Harry Potter is absent for large swaths of the evening.  There are also a LOT of secrets being kept by the residents of Inishmaan, and while the constant string of revelations gives the show its fast pace and crackling energy, it can be difficult to keep track of which version of events is the current "truth."  Yet despite occasionally feeling like a bait and switch, The Cripple of Inishmaan is a handsomely staged dark comedy that seems especially fresh and modern in a Broadway season filled with classic dramas.

The play takes place in 1934 on the rocky isle of Inishmaan, just off the coast of Ireland.  There isn't a whole lot to do on Inishmaan, and the place is kind of a dump (one of the play's many running gags is how implicitly awful the island is, since the arrival of cripples, sharks, and Englishmen are all considered signs of the town's up and coming status).  When he learns the neighboring island of Inishmore is playing host to a documentary film crew all the way from Hollywood, "Cripple" Billy Claven sees his chance to escape his humdrum life and finally see some of the world beyond Inishmaan's shores.

Radcliffe throws himself into the role of Billy with the kind of dedication rarely seen from young Hollywood stars on Broadway.  He exaggerates his physicality to the point of grotesqueness, which provides an interesting contrast to his boyish good looks and natural charisma.  Radcliffe's innate likability makes him easy to root for, and you certainly feel for him when the other characters casually and constantly insult him (no one has a problem calling him "Cripple Billy" to his face, and seem positively perplexed when it's suggested he might not be okay with the nickname).  Radcliffe's Billy wears his geniality as a mask, and the young actor expertly allows us to glimpse underneath that smiling exterior to see the damaged, lonely individual underneath.  It's a winsome performance, and it's a shame the play doesn't allow us to see more of it.

The rest of the ensemble, all reprising their performances from the 2013 West End mounting on which this production is based, are equally well suited to their roles.  As Billy's adoptive aunts, Ingrid Craigie and Gillian Hanna have an excellent comedic chemistry that makes their scenes of commiseration a hoot.  Pat Shortt's boisterous, obnoxious blowhard Johnnypateen always brings with him a delightfully madcap energy, delivering his often ludicrous dialogue with absolute sincerity.  And Sarah Greene's wilful tomboy Helen makes for an interesting foil to Radcliffe's Billy, although she doesn't ever allow the audience to warm to her quite the way Billy does.  All of the actors find the musicality in McDonagh's harsh, profanity-laden dialogue, and the interplay between the performers keeps the evening moving at a brisk pace throughout.

Director Michael Grandage (last represented on Broadway by the underwhelming Evita revival) stages the piece with a keen eye and a steady hand, allowing the play to do the heavy lifting rather than trying to impose some kind of high-minded directorial concept.  Grandage mostly succeeds at nailing the play's mix of tones, although it feels as if the script was intended to have more bite than it currently does (which may simply be a function of the play being almost 20 years old).  The revolving set designed by Christopher Oram is impressive without being distracting, and there is a beauty to his worn and tattered costumes that makes the play's world feel lived in. 

Overall, The Cripple of Inishmaan is a welcomed addition to the Broadway season, once which reconfirms both McDonagh's prowess as a playwright and Radcliffe's status as a fine actor remarkably unconcerned with personal vanity.  This production is expertly executed from top to bottom, and although the intervening years since its original premiere may have robbed the work of some of its edge, it remains an entertaining, stimulating coming of age tale peppered with a few unexpected twists.  There are far worse ways one could spend a night in the theatre, and if a truly breakout stage performance from Radcliffe remains elusive this is certainly another strong credit on his ever-growing resume.

One Song More

Review: Les Miserables

You might think that it's makeup that makes Ramin Karimloo look older by the end of Les Miserables, but the show is just that long.

Full disclosure: the first Broadway show I ever saw was the original production of Les Miserables, towards the tail end of its run.  I came into the Imperial Theatre knowing every word of the two-disc cast recording, and the ensuing three hours was pure magic.  I don't know if this makes me more or less qualified to pass judgement on the recently opened and reimagined production; I'm obviously fond of the material, but I also have powerful memories of the original staging.  Being as objective as possible, it is my sad duty to report that while aspects of this revival truly sing, it ultimately doesn't justify remounting this classic show so soon after it's last Broadway appearance.

Adapted from Victor Hugo's sprawling French novel, Les Miserables is at its core the story of convicted thief Jean Valjean and his efforts to find redemption after being shown compassion by an elderly Bishop.  Valjean changes his name, and through a rather circuitous set of circumstances agrees to care for the young daughter of a dying factory worker named Fantine.  Valjean moves with his new charge to Paris and raises her while avoiding the suspicions of the rigid Inspector Javert, who doesn't believe in redemption and still holds Valjean accountable for breaking his parole two decades later.  If this all sounds a bit convoluted, that's what happens when one tries to condense a thousand page novel into a three hour contemporary opera.

Laurence Connor and James Powell's updated staging (which ditches the original's famous turntable in favor of more traditional scenic design) highlights the weakness in the show's plotting.  All the essential details are in Alain Boublil and Claude-Michel Schonberg's score, but they are easy to miss if the director (or directors, in this case) aren't actively highlighting them.  This staging is narratively muddy and seems to deemphasize the story's emotional throughline, which makes all of the death and suffering drag on into eternity.  This production doesn't actually run longer than the original's three hour runtime, but it does drag in a way the old show didn't.  Without the emotional investment in the quickly sketched characters, the show's plot contrivances and leaps in logic stick out like sore thumbs.  Does anyone without a history degree understand who General Lamarc was, or why his death prompted a bunch of students to stage a revolution that eventually got them all killed?  And how does a policeman the entire city fears manage to go undercover by changing his coat (only to be called out by a prepubescent boy)?

On the positive side, Boublil and Schonberg's score is as lovely as ever, and although the nostop parade of power ballads becomes tiresome by evening's end, there's no denying that those ballads sure do sound pretty.  The show is also one of the more intelligent examples of repeated motifs and melodic reprises to come out of the British Invasion of the 80s, and thanks to new orchestrations the show is free of the overly synthesized sound that defines so much of the music from that era.

The one unequivocally great thing about this revival is Ramin Karimloo's superbly sung and acted Jean Valjean.  Already an established star in London's West End, Karimloo is a force of nature as the wronged but deeply noble Valjean.  There is an animalistic intensity to his performance that immediately grabs you, and watching Karimloo temper that fury as his character ages and matures is electrifying.  Karimloo is blessed with a spine-tinglingly good tenor that sounds fantastic on his many big numbers, and he attacks the part with a ferocity and conviction that he grounds all of the melodramatic spectacle through the sheer force of his sincerity.  Seeing Karimloo perform Valjean's iconic second act ballad "Bring Him Home," a prayer that God spare the life of his daughter's newfound love, is a masterclass in vocal technique and musical storytelling.  For those glorious three minutes, everything else melts away and this Les Miserables becomes the emotionally stirring story it so desperately wants to be.

The rest of the cast is hit or miss.  Will Swenson acquits himself much better than expected as the ruthless Inspector Javert, sharing a particularly strong chemistry with Karimloo.  Their scenes pop with a deliciously menacing energy; their "Confrontation" feels genuinely dangerous, as if one or both men could snap at any moment (it is also one of the more convincing instances of combat in a show where the onstage violence often looks laughably fake).  Unfortunately, Swenson is singing outside of his comfort zone, which robs his two big solos of the vocal heft they deserve.  Meanwhile, Andy Mientus makes for a bland Marius, and Kyle Scatliffe's student revolutionary Enjolras is all bark and no bite.

Among the women, Cassie Levy comes across the best as the doomed Fantine, although her well-sung version of "I Dreamed a Dream" isn't the emotional sucker punch the show needs it to be.  Tony-winner Nikki M. James appears lost in the role of lovelorn street urchin Eponine, wandering the stage uncertainly during her Act II power ballad "On My Own."  The youthful innocence and genuine longing she demonstrated in The Book of Mormon is curiously absent here, making her supposed unrequited love for Marius feel forced and the pair's final duet unearned.  And while the pretty ingénue Cosette is a woefully underwritten joke of a role, surely there exists an actress who can do more with it than the underwhelming Samantha Hill.

The show's only (and desperately needed) comic relief is provided by Cliff Saunders and Keala Settle as Mr. and Mrs. Thenardier, the shifty innkeepers who have been caring for Cosette before Valjean comes to take her away.  While Thenardier's songs provide a welcomed injection of levity into the night's proceedings, Saunders mugs so shamelessly that he ends up being just as tiresome as all of the gloom and doom.  Meanwhile, Settle proves that her Tony-nominated performance in Hands on a Hardbody was not a fluke, turning her brief stagetime into some of the most memorable minutes of this overblown revival.  Settle milks the role of Madame Thenardier for all it's worth, and one can only hope this talented actress' next vehicle offers her more of a chance to showcase her talents.

Visually, the show wavers between being a beautiful mess and just a mess, often within the same scene.  Some of Matt Kinley's scenic design is stunning - his multi-tiered vision of the Paris streets is particularly impressive - while some of it clearly suffers from the lack of the original's turntable (several portions of the barricade sequence aren't nearly as effective without being able to rotate the thing around to see what's on the other side).  Andreane Neofitou and Christine Rowland's costumes appear cheap, even on the characters who aren't dressed in tattered rags, and Paule Constable's lighting design is far too dark for much of the show's runtime.  There are times when the grandeur of the original production is sorely missed, especially since the lack of bells and whistles tends to expose the weaknesses in the storytelling.

Ultimately, this Les Miserables does little to disguise the fact that it is a cash grab meant to capitalize on renewed interest generated by the Oscar-winning film version.  The songs are as gorgeous as ever and generally well sung, if not always well acted, and Ramin Karimloo's portrayal of Jean Valjean *almost* justifies the price of admission.  If Mr. Karimloo's costars were all at his level, this production would be one of the highlights of the season, but instead it is an inoffensive diversion that slightly outstays its welcome thanks to a mammoth runtime.  Hopefully the producers of the next Broadway production will wait until there's a truly compelling, new take on the material before promising the audience "one day more."