2014 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part II (Best Actress)

It's that time of year again; the Tony Award nominations are set to be announced this Tuesday, and I am in full Tony mode here at Broadway, Etc.  Yesterday, I made my best guesses as to which shows would find themselves nominated in the production categories (including my theories about how the recent Tony rule change might affect this year's races).  Today I tackle the harder to predict Lead Actress races, with more eligible nominees and proportionally fewer slots to go around.  These are some of the most competitive categories of the year, with many deserving women vying for the precious few nominations.

As always, I'm using a combination of first-hand experience, hearsay, and gut feeling to come up with these predictions.  I will also pick one Wildcard for each category, representing the person I feel has the best chance of unseating one of my five presumptive nominees for a chance at the big prize.  (Or sometimes I pick two wildcards.  It's my blog, I can do what I want.)  Read on to see who I think this year's lucky ladies will be!

Best Actress

Should Audra McDonald win the Best Actress in a Play category, she would enter the record books as having more Tony Awards than any other performer AND being the first actress to win awards in all four acting categories. 

There have been a huge number of plays produced on Broadway this season (limited runs really increase the number of shows can you can cram into one year).  Unfortunately, many of those plays have been male driven, meaning the Best Actress in a Play category isn't as stacked with talent as one might expect, although the eligible performances are still might impressive.  Cherry Jones was universally praised for her Amanda in last fall's The Glass Menagerie, and will almost surely be recognized with a nomination.  Tyne Daly is also virtually guaranteed a nomination for her bigoted (but not really) matriarch in Terrence McNally's Mothers and Sons; some committee members will also probably feel guilty that the 2012 race didn't have room for Daly's towering Maria Callas in Master Class and will be looking to make it up to her.

In Tony predictions, it almost never pays to bet against Audra McDonald, and the acclaimed singing actress is currently making a very strong case for a record-breaking sixth Tony Award (more than any other performer) with her starring turn in Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grill.  Her work in the 90-minute, one woman show will certainly land her among this year's nominees.  And although critics were lukewarm to The Velocity of Autumn, they universally praised 83-year-old Estelle Parson's performance in the two-hander.  It would be very surprising to see her name left out of this year's nominee list, especially considering that she has never actually won a Tony despite her long and illustrious career.

Which leaves one slot available for the rest of the season's lead actresses to fight over.  The last time A Raisin in the Sun was on Broadway, Phylicia Rashad won Best Actress her Lena Younger; LaTanya Richardson Jackson is certainly in the running for playing the same role.  But Rashad made such a strong impression 10 years ago it may keep Jackson out of serious consideration, a situation not helped by the fact that Jackson didn't have the benefit of a full rehearsal period (she took over for the previously announced Diahann Carroll when the latter actress bowed out during rehearsals) .  The highly praised ensemble of The Realistic Joneses could also produce a nominee, although it's debatable whether Toni Collette or Marisa Tomei has the edge.  However, I just have this sneaking suspicion that Rebecca Hall's universally praised performance in Roundabout's revival of Machinal will make her one of this year's surprise nominees, knocking Jackson out of the race.

Nominees:
Tyne Daly, Mothers and Sons
Rebecca Hall, Machinal
Cherry Jones, The Glass Menagerie
Audra McDonald, Lady Day at Emerson's Bar & Grill
Estelle Parsons, The Velocity of Autumn

Wildcard:
LaTanya Richardson Jackson, A Raisin in the Sun

Best Actress in a Musical

If Kelli O'Hara can't win a Tony for her absolutely stunning work in The Bridges of Madison County, she might as well just throw in the towel and take up gardening or something.

This is, hands down, the most competitive race of the year (and perhaps the past several years).  For once, the phrase "it's an honor just to be nominated" will not be an empty pleasantry, because this category features some of the most critically praised, beloved women currently working in the industry, and it is truly anyone's guess of who will be recognized on Tuesday.

As far as untouchables go, I would say that Kelli O'Hara, Idina Menzel, and Sutton Foster have had a seat reserved for them at Radio City since their respective projects were announced.  All three shows are positively built around these women's momentous talents, and all of them have walked the Tony red carpet multiple times (of the three, only O'Hara has never actually won, something that I'm praying changes this year).  Most importantly, all three women are sensational in their chosen vehicles, and even critics who weren't won over by the productions as a whole conceded that these three women are the real deal.  The exclusion of any one of them would surely rank as the year's biggest snub.

Trailing just behind them in current Broadway "It Girl" Jessie Mueller, who went from being an unknown only three years ago to headlining her own Broadway show.  She isn't *quite* guaranteed a nomination for her work as Carole King in Beautiful, but I and most industry insiders would be shocked if she didn't make the cut.  The final slot in this category is likely reserved for Oscar-nominated actress Michelle Williams' Broadway debut in Cabaret.  Sally Bowles is certainly an award-worthy role - it won Liza Minelli the Oscar and Natasha Richardson the Tony - but Williams received a rather cool critical reception with many reviews finding her to be on of this revival's weakest aspects.  I still think there is enough support for her to be nominated (her involvement seemed to be the point where Cabaret transformed from a "Really? Again?" show into a "Must See"), but she is most in danger of losing her spot.

I don't foresee anyone unseating the five above ladies, and I'm tempted to not even name a Wildcard, but in the spirit of expecting the unexpected I will say that Mary Bridget Davies' spot on impersonation of Janis Joplin in A Night with Janis Joplin just might have made enough of an impression to allow her to break into such a tough category.  The likeable Margo Siebert will have to take solace that Rocky opened in a very competitive year, and to be quite honest the material she was given let her down.

Nominees
Sutton Foster, Violet
Idina Menzel, If/Then
Jessie Mueller, Beautiful
Kelli O'Hara, The Bridges of Madison County
Michelle Williams, Cabaret

Wildcard
Mary Bridget Davies, A Night with Janis Joplin


That covers this year's leading ladies; check back tomorrow for my predictions for the leading men who will walk the red carpet as nominees on Sunday, June 8th.  And while you're waiting, be sure to check out the rest of my Tony coverage below:

2014 Tony Nominee Predictions Part I (Production)

The Glorious Music of Something Beginning

Review: Ragtime in Concert

Ragtime concert director Stafford Arima with stars Norm Lewis, Lea Salonga, and Manoel Felciano

 

There were many stars on the stage of Lincoln Center’s Avery Fisher Hall during last night’s concert presentation of the Stephen Flaherty-Lynn Ahrens-Terrance McNally musical Ragtime, but over the course of the evening it became clear that the biggest star was the work itself.  A staggering masterpiece virtually unequalled by anything in the musical theatre cannon, Ragtime juggles its interweaving narratives with a breathtaking assurance that is a feat unto itself, with the Flaherty/Ahrens score serving up an unending parade of some of the most soul-stirring music ever composed for the Broadway stage.  When the writers joined the cast onstage for the final bow, the unassuming trio fittingly received a thunderous ovation befitting a work of this magnitude.

Ragtime’s score draws upon a host of distinctly American musical genres, all of which were excellently rendered by the 36-piece orchestra under the baton of conductor Sheilah Walker.  Few musicals manage to have the breadth and musical variety of Ragtime while remaining a sonically coherent whole, but between Flaherty’s writing and the orchestra’s excellent playing nary a note sounded out of place.  In addition to the principals, many of whom were past Tony winners, the ensemble was rounded out by veterans of various other Ragtime productions and a hundred-strong chorus which gave the sumptuous score with even more oomph than usual.  The cast’s rendition of the sprawling opening number was positively electric, as was their take on the soaring ballad “New Music” and the triumphant final reprise of “Wheels of a Dream” that serves as the show’s finale.  But the truly transcendent moment came during the Act I closer “Till We Reach That Day,” which steadily built from a mournful solo sung by the sensational NaTasha Yvette Williams into a roof-rattling crescendo with an emotional intensity that shook the audience to its very core.

Among the principals, Tony-winner Lea Salonga made the strongest impression with her gloriously sung and exceedingly well-acted Mother.  After a somewhat tentative start which perhaps stemmed from overplaying the character’s reserved nature, Salonga steadily grew in confidence and intensity throughout the night to deliver a stunning sucker-punch of a performance.  By the time she reached Mother’s big ballad “Back to Before” near the end of the second act, Salonga’s command of the stage and inner strength fully enveloped the cavernous hall, creating a genuine showstopper which was appropriately greeted by rapturous applause.

As Tateh, a poor Jewish immigrant pursuing the American dream, Manoel Felciano (Tobias in the John Doyle-helmed Sweeney Todd) brought tremendous warmth and a soothing tenor to his many ballads, with his rendition of “Gliding” proving particularly moving.  Felciano also shared a genuine chemistry with Salonga that made their two duets (“Nothing Like the City” and “Our Children”) immensely satisfying.  The gifted actor held everyone in rapt attention whenever he was onstage, and it’s a shame New York audiences haven’t had more chances to appreciate this gifted actor’s many talents.

Rounding out the show’s central trio was Norm Lewis as Coalhouse Walker, Jr., the black piano player from Harlem struggling to rise above the many indignities he faced at the hands of intolerant bigots.  Lewis seemed less assured than Salonga and Felciano, failing to fully convey Coalhouse’s quiet dignity and occasionally struggling to meet the demands of Flaherty and Ahrens’ score. Despite these problems he still managed to sell the rousing ballad “Make Them Hear You,” even if the performance failed to fully eclipse the ghost of Brian Stokes Mitchell in the original Broadway company.

Michael Arden did excellent work a Mother’s Younger Brother, communicating the restless aimlessness of youth while using his piercing tenor to effortlessly reach the back of the balcony.  As Father, Howard McGillin remained true to his character’s racist tendencies while simultaneously showing Father’s softer side, thereby keeping the character from descending into cartoonish villainy.  Tyne Daly was a veritable force of nature as real-life anarchist Emma Goldman, and young Lewis Grosso made for a charmingly precocious Little Boy.

Unfortunately, there was one obvious weak link in the cast, and that was the Sarah of Patina Miller.  Any actress tackling the role of Coalhouse’s doomed lover has the unenviable task of living up to the memory of Audra McDonald’s legendary Tony-winning performance, but even grading on a curve the Sister Act star failed to impress.  Her voice is ill-suited to the role, as the belting on which Miller’s made her name is stylistically inappropriate to classically-influenced show, and in attempting to avoid that trap she became too preoccupied to give a good performance.  “Your Daddy’s Son,” one of the show’s most gut-wrenching songs, fell oddly flat when Miller sang it, although the actress mostly regained control of the role after that initial (and major) misstep.

As the inaugural production of Manhattan Concert Productions’ Broadway Series, this Ragtime has set an exceedingly high bar for any future installments.  Hopefully the organization will continue producing star-studded mountings of shows whose size and/or subject matter make them risky commercial ventures but that don’t necessarily fit the obscure Golden Age offerings City Center’s Encores! specializes in.  Even with a few hiccups, the evening was a resounding success, and yet another example of the unfettered brilliance of Flaherty and Ahrens’ most famous work.