2013 Tony Predictions: Best Actress

The Tony Awards draw ever nearer, and we have finally worked our way up to the most prestigious performance categories.  The leading actor and actress races are typically home to the type of tour de force performances that become Broadway legend, and winning the Tony against such strong competition is definitive proof that someone has “made it.”  So which actresses will join the ranks of Broadway’s greatest and take home the coveted Best Actress statuettes (and who actually deserves such recognition)?  Keep reading to find out.

Best Actress in a Play

Emmy-winning veteran Cicely Tyson returns to the stage after a three decade absence in Roundabout's acclaimed revival of Horton Foote's The Trip to Bountiful

 

Nominees:  Laurie Metcalf, The Other Place; Amy Morton, Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?; Kristine Nielsen, Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike; Holland Taylor, Ann; Cicely Tyson, The Trip to Bountiful

 

There are some truly masterful performances nominated in this category, and it’s difficult to argue against any of these women.  Of the five nominees, I’m sad to say Amy Morton has the smallest chance of winning.  While a fascinating Martha in Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?, Morton ended up playing second fiddle to Tracy Letts’ George.  Critics are used to seeing that power dynamic reversed, and underplaying a role has not been the path to Tony glory in the past.  And Holland Taylor’s nomination has more of an air of respectful acknowledgment than passionate support, which means that when push comes to shove she will not be the first (or second or third) actress people vote for.

Kristine Nielsen is an interesting case, as she has won several awards already for her work in Vanya and Sonia.  But every other awards race has deemed Nielsen a supporting actress, and some voters may feel her role is not substantial enough to merit Best Actress.  Which leaves Laurie Metcalf and Cicely Tyson, both of whom received across the board raves for their performances.  In fact, I would say the raves for Metcalf were slightly more ecstatic, but her show closed several months ago while Tyson’s premiered late in the spring season.  And considering that Tyson has already won the Outer Critics and Drama Desk awards for her performance in The Trip to Bountiful, she becomes the clear frontrunner here.  This race is Tyson’s to lose.

Should Win:  Laurie Metcalf, The Other Place

Will Win:  Cicely Tyson, The Trip to Bountiful

Best Actress in a Musical

 

The charming Laura Osnes has lived her own Cinderella story, going from unknown actress on a TV talent show to a Tony-nominated leading lady.

Nominees:  Stephanie J. Block, The Mystery of Edwin Drood; Carolee Carmello, Scandalous; Valisia LeKae, Motown the Musical; Patina Miller, Pippin; Laura Osnes, Cinderella

 

No disrespect to the nominated women, but this year’s Best Actress in a Musical category is one of the weakest in recent memory, lacking the kind of outsized diva performances that usually make this race so interesting.  On the positive side, whoever wins will be a first time Tony recipient, virtually guaranteeing a tearful and heartfelt acceptance speech.  I really enjoyed Stephanie J. Block in Drood, and the part showcased her various talents with panache, but the borderline supporting role sidelined her for much of the second act.  Drood also closed months ago, although it is still more recent than Carolee Carmello’s turn in the short-lived Scandalous.  And while I’m sure Valisia LeKae is lovely as Diana Ross in Motown the Musical, I just don’t think the show or the actress has enough support behind her to snag one of Broadway’s highest honors.

This is a two horse race between past nominees Laura Osnes and Patina Miller, and I would say they are pretty evenly matched.  Miller is giving the more overtly impressive performance as the Leading Player in Pippin, displaying a surprising affinity for the Fosse-esque choreography and utilizing her trademark powerhouse vocals to great effect.  But many people, myself including, feel like Miller is trying too hard, and her aggressive need to impress the audience is not the most endearing quality.  Meanwhile, Osnes is widely liked within the industry, as evidenced by her ability to get nominated among last year’s much more competitive field for her work in the little seen Bonnie and Clyde.  She is also perfectly cast as the title character in Cinderella, a show Tony voters are clearly high on despite the questionable rewrites by Douglas Carter Beane. 

I think in their hearts, most Tony voters want to see Osnes win this award, which would be the ultimate validation for someone who initially rose to fame on a reality TV show.  But Miller’s performance is mighty impressive, and I suspect she would have won two years ago if it had not been for Sutton Foster’s fantastic turn in Anything Goes.  This race is almost too close to call, but my gut is telling me to give Osnes the edge.

Should Win:  Patina Mille, Pippin

Will Win:  Laura Osnes, Cinderella

 

Check back soon to see my predictions for the Best Actor races, followed by the production awards.  In the meantime, catch up with all of my previous Tony coverage here:

 

Best Featured Actor

Best Featured Actress
Best Book and Score
Best Choreography and Direction
Tony Nomination React

Smash Gives 'em That Big Finish

Ivy (Megan Hilty) and Karen (Katherine McPhee) celebrate the fact that they aren't actually competing against Audra McDonald (not pictured) for the Best Actress Tony.

While the Tony Awards are only days away and I have plenty more predictions to make, I wanted to take a break from all that to reflect on a quiet but important event that took place during the holiday weekend: the series finale of Smash.

A behind the scenes look at the making of a Broadway musical, poor Smash has had a rough time of it.  After the pilot premiered to near-universal acclaim and fairly strong ratings, the series began its fast descent into mockery and derision.  The show became the poster child for a movement known as “hate watching,” with people tuning in every week for the express purpose of making fun of the show’s every flaw.  After the rather public firing of creator Theresa Rebeck at the end of season one, NBC promised that new showrunner Joshua Safran would retool the show into a sleeker, sexier Smash and thereby reinvigorate the show.  But the second season premiered to dismal rating that only sunk lower with each passing week, prompting NBC to move it to Saturday nights before officially cancelling the show a couple weeks ago (although any observer could tell the show was doomed for months beforehand).

I have to say, I quite enjoyed the two hour series finale that aired Sunday night.  Although it could have stood an extra 10-15 minutes to fully wrap up its myriad storylines, I felt the finale did an excellent job of providing closure to the series and the characters.  I would have loved to see a higher budget Tony Awards ceremony, and it would have been great fun to see all of the “nominated” industry heavyweights actually cameo, but I loved seeing where all the characters ended up and the wins in each category felt right. 

Ultimately, I feel like Safran made good on most of his promises about fixing the show, as this season was generally tighter, more focused, and less subject to the wild fluctuations in tone and characterization that plagued the back half of the first season.  Not every addition was a home run, but none bombed in the spectacular manner that reviled elements like Ellis or Julia’s son Leo did in season one.  But while I personally am sad to see the show go, I think in some ways this is a blessing in disguise, as the story about the creation of Bombshell came to a natural conclusion with no obvious extension.  Safran has stated that a third season would have seen Karen starring in the movie musical Tom and Julia were asked to write in the finale, possibly with Jimmy taking over composing duties so Tom and/or Derek could direct.  It’s an interesting premise, but even Safran admits he hadn’t quite figured out how Ivy figures into that story, and a Smash without the amazing Megan Hilty is almost destined to be a lesser show.

So why didn’t Smash become the breakout success everyone hoped it would be?  It’s a complicated question.  I think the biggest obstacle the show faced was never fully deciding who its intended audience was.  The show, especially in its first season, would have seemingly knowledgeable characters suddenly become idiots to allow the writers to explain key concepts like workshops and previews to audiences unfamiliar with how Broadway works.  And yet at the same time it would have industry professionals like Jordan Roth or Michael Riedel appear as themselves with no explanation as to who they were or why they were important, something that surely made anyone not intimately familiar with the New York theatre scene feel slightly lost (I’d even wager there’s a large contingent of NYC actors who wouldn’t necessarily recognize theatre czar Jordan Roth on sight).  Trying to have it both ways ended up pleasing no one, as theatre professionals would get insulted by the characters’ spontaneous naivety and outsiders would get confused by the overly specific, unexplained references.

Then there is the problem of the writing, particularly in the first season.  Under Rebeck’s direction the show could be a narrative nightmare, inconsistent in its logic and continually trying to force uninteresting characters down the audience’s throat.  The show also had a nasty habit of making previously sympathetic characters unlikable and selfish, a problem which it never fully escaped.  Add in a 7-month break between seasons and you have plenty of reasons for less dedicated viewers to jump ship.

I’m going to go out on a limb and say that theatre people are also partly to blame, as a large percentage of them approached the show with the wrong attitude.  A number of friends and colleagues would constantly complain that the show wasn’t “realistic” and that certain plot twists would never happen, citing that as irrefutable evidence that the show was garbage.  But this assumes popular shows like Law and Order are a 100% accurate representation of the criminal justice system or that Grey’s Anatomy is the place to go for solid medical information.  Like all workplace dramas, Smash embellished elements of the business to make for good TV, and I for one found myself much more disturbed by the things I’m sure do happen, like when Julia’s high-minded Bombshell rewrite was rejected in favor of a more tourist-friendly version.

I think the positives of Smash far outweigh the negatives.  It introduced musical theatre to a wider audience, as even the paltry 2 million viewers a week are more people than see the Broadway production of Wicked in a year.  It provided a host of Broadway actors with a steady, TV-sized paycheck, which will provide them with a nice financial buffer while they search for their next stage project.  And once they land that next project, the exposure they received on Smash will be a valuable marketing tool to help sell tickets (and unlike most Broadway stunt casting, we know these people have the skills to actually succeed onstage).  And it gave us some truly stunning new songs by Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman, who really need to be writing more musicals to stand alongside Hairspray and the underappreciated Catch Me If You Can. 

So farewell, Smash.  I for one am grateful for the two seasons of entertainment you provided, and while you certainly had your issues, you were far from the unqualified disaster so many folks made you out to be.

2013 Tony Predictions: Best Featured Actor

The Tony Awards are only two weeks away, and I have a lot more predictions to make.  So without further ado, here are my picks for who will win the Best Featured Actor statuettes (along with my personal opinions as to who actually deserves them).

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Tony Shalhoub (right) in Lincoln Center Theatre's revival of Clifford Odets' Golden Boy

Nominees:  Danny Burnstein, Golden Boy; Richard Kind, The Big Knife; Billy Magnussen, Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike; Tony Shalhoub, Golden Boy; Courtney B. Vance, Lucky Guy

These predictions are brought to you by 100% Guesswork, as I have not seen any of the nominated performances.  That said I’m going to rule out Vanya and Sonia’s Billy Magnussen, given the Tonys’ habit of overlooking entirely comedic performances.  Magnussen’s Spike is reportedly dumb as a brick, and while actors can appreciate just how difficult playing a compelling idiot is, the rest of the Tony voters will likely underestimate the amount of work going into his performance when compared to the more overtly dramatic nature of his competitors. 

After years of work in regional productions and as a replacement in high profile Broadway comedies, Richard Kind is being recognized for his more serious work in The Big Knife, but given that he is the show’s sole nominee I doubt it culminates in an actual win.  And while the Tony committee is certainly high on Nora Ephron’s final play, the fact that Lucky Guy is raking in the dough is unlikely to propel Courtney B. Vance to the Tony podium.  The amount of praise directed at Lucky Guy has certainly dimmed in the two months since its opening, and while the play is well-liked I think the majority of voters no longer feel it is award-worthy.

That leaves us with a two way race between the rapturously reviewed Golden Boy’s Danny Burnstein and Tony Shalhoub.  Burnstein is an incredible actor who commands a lot of admiration among his peers, but despite three prior nominations the dependable character actor has thus far failed to actually win a Tony.  You could argue the committee owes him one after overlooking his revelatory work as Buddy in last season’s Follies, but that injustice is actually what leads me to bet on Shalhoub taking home the big prize.  If Burnstein couldn’t win for Follies, the chances of him beating out a three-time Emmy winner are slim, and by all accounts Shalhoub so completely disappeared into his role as the protagonist’s father that begrudging him a win seems petty.

Should Win:  Danny Burnstein, Golden Boy (because at this point, he’s earned it)

Will Win:  Tony Shalhoub, Golden Boy

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Terrance Mann and his real-life wife, Charlotte d'Amboise, hamming it up as the conniving parents of Pippin's title character.

Nominees:  Charl Brown, Motown the Musical; Keith Carradine, Hands on a Hardbody; Will Chase, The Mystery of Edwin Drood; Gabriel Ebert, Matilda the Musical; Terrance Mann, Pippin

I’m a little more familiar with the nominated work in this category, but that doesn’t necessarily make predicting things any easier.  Since Motown the Musical couldn’t leverage its massive box office into a Best Musical nomination despite the Tonys’ well-document favoritism of commercially viable shows, I don’t think Charl Brown has much of a chance.  This is not to imply Brown is bad; it’s merely a reflection of the fact that if you’re in a show people don’t like, winning awards is an uphill battle no matter how good the work.  Both Keith Carradine and Will Chase did fine work in their respective shows, but neither performance screamed Tony-worthy, and the fact that both productions are now closed is a major obstacle to their winning.

I believe the frontrunners for this prize are Gabriel Ebert and Terrance Mann, who have the advantage of appearing in two of the most critically lauded musicals of the season.  While I have not personally seen Ebert’s work in Matilda (the damn show is sold out for the foreseeable future), I’m sure the role of Matilda’s father provides the actor with plenty of scenery-chewing opportunities.  But as I mentioned with Lauren Ward in my Featured Actress predictions, for whatever reason the cast of Matilda seldom gets mentioned as a driving factor behind the show’s success, which may put Ebert at a disadvantage.  Terrance Mann is doing pitch-perfect work in Pippin, managing to stand out among the enormous amount of spectacle and talent onstage at the Music Box Theatre.  In addition, Mann’s long and respected career on Broadway has yet to net the veteran actor a Tony Award, something which may sway undecided voters in Mann’s favor.  And Pippin itself has been doing quite well in the various theatrical award races, which can only increase Mann’s chances; in fact, I think it pushes him over the top.

Will and Should Win:  Terrance Mann, Pippin

There are only eight of the Big 12 categories left to predict (Best Actor/Actress and the production awards), so check back soon for more insight into how I expect those races to shape up.  Until then, you can catch up on all of my previous predictions by clicking the links below:

Best Featured Actress

Best Book and Score

Best Choreography and Direction

2013 Tony Nominations React

2013 Tony Predictions: Best Featured Actress

As the clock steadily ticks down to Tony Sunday, it’s time to begin predicting the winners of what I’ve dubbed the Big 12 Tony races (which includes the eight acting awards, best revivals, and best new productions).  I’ll be starting my analysis with the featured categories before working my way up towards the more prestigious awards, and if there are any major discrepancies between who I think is the most likely to win and who is the most deserving, I’ll be sure to point them out. 

Since any gentleman knows it’s ladies first, I’ll be starting with the Best Featured Actress categories, which I actually find to be some of the hardest categories to predict.  These races are where wildcard nominees are most likely to appear, with voters alternating between rewarding exciting new talent and re-honoring theatrical veterans.  Guessing which way the winds will blow in a given year can be as much luck as anything else, but I will bravely soldier on and do my best to make sense of it.  So without further ado, here are my picks for this year’s best supporting players.

Best Featured Actress in a Play

Condola Rashad (right) is two for two when it comes to Tony nominations; she's been nominated for each of her Broadway roles.  Can she win this year?

 

Nominees:  Carrie Coon, Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?; Shalita Grant, Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike; Judith Ivey, The Heiress; Judith Light, The Assembled Parties; Condola Rashad, The Trip to Bountiful

 

In some ways this race is anyone’s game, but I think the least likely winner among the five nominees is Judith Ivey.  All but forgotten by the New York press, The Heiress hasn’t been very competitive when it comes to nominations or wins this awards season, and with two career wins to Ivey’s name I think the voters will choose to spread the love.  Carrie Coon was absolutely brilliant in Virginia Woolf, but her role is the smallest in the four character play, and with her flashier costars curiously overlooked by other awards bodies I can’t imagine she stands much of a chance.  Shalita Grant could be a dark horse candidate, as Vanya and Sonia has proven to be a surprisingly strong contender this season and the show’s most honored star, Kristine Nielsen, is competing in another category.

But ultimately, I think the most likely winners are the two women who found themselves in this same spot last year.  After a three decade absence from the New York stage, Judith Light returned in 2010 and has been Tony nominated three seasons running.  It is impossible to overstate the amount of love the community has for last year’s winner, and it is not outrageous to imagine Light becoming a consecutive Tony winner.  Aside from having just won this award, Light’s biggest stumbling block is that fact that Tony voters don’t appear as enamored with The Assembled Parties as the critics were.  The Trip to Bountiful’s Condola Rashad has obviously inherited her mother Phylicia’s talent, and voters who balk at honoring Light two years in a row will almost certainly vote for the young starlet.  In fact, I’m going to make the bold prediction that Rashad will win this year, although only a fool would count Light out completely.

 

Will & Should Win:  Condola Rashad, The Trip to Bountiful

 

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

Andrea Martin in the outstanding revival of Pippin.  It's been 20 years since she won her first Tony; will this year bring her Tony #2?

 

Nominees:  Annaleigh Ashford, Kinky Boots; Victoria Clark, Cinderella; Andrea Martin, Pippin; Keala Settle, Hand on a Hardbody; Lauren Ward, Matilda the Musical

This category is a nice mixture of industry heavyweights and Tony newcomers, with every nominated performance I’ve seen culminating in a genuine showstopper.  Despite her rafter shaking vocals and unexpected dramatic heft, Keala Settle is the underdog here as Hands on a Hardbody is the only nominated show not currently running.  And for all of the good things said about Matilda, the production itself has been more praised than the individual performances, which hurts Lauren Ward’s chances considerably.

I would honestly be happy to see any of the three remaining women take home the trophy.  Victoria Clark has been handed some questionable material in the rewrite of Rodgers and Hammerstein’s Cinderella, but her second act ballad “There’s Music in You” is one of the most gloriously sung and acted pieces of music currently on Broadway.  I think the general disdain for Cinderella will hold Clark back, but there’s no denying the power of her performance.  Annaleigh Ashford is finally enjoying her moment in the sun after years of hilarious supporting turns in under seen or underappreciated musicals, and her solo “The History of Wrong Guys” is a simultaneous send-up and love letter to 80s rock anthems.  In a lesser actress’ hands the part would likely fall flat, and a Tony win would provide the perfect feather in Ashford’s professional cap.  But Andrea Martin’s work in Pippin is nothing short of magical, and in its utter simplicity her “No Time at All” manages to trump the topnotch revival’s overwhelming amount of visual spectacle.  Only a complete killjoy would begrudge Martin her likely Tony win, and it couldn’t happen to a nicer broad. 

Should Win:  Annaleigh Ashford, Kinky Boots

Will Win:  Andrea Martin, Pippin

 

Check back soon for my predictions in the Best Featured Actor categories, and until then you can catch up on the rest of my Tony ramblings for this season.

 

Best Book and Score

Best Choreography and Direction
2013 Tony Nominations React

2013 Tony Perdictions: Best Book and Score

It’s the middle of awards season here in NYC, and the name on everybody’s lips is “Tony.”  Last time I predicted who would win the coveted statuette in the Choreography and Direction categories; today, I pick who will and should win the awards for Best Book and Score.  At this point I should mention that I have still not seen Matilda, which is obviously one of the major competitors in these races, so there will be some speculation and possible bias going on here.  I reserve the right to change my predictions after seeing the show, and if I do, look for an updated entry at a later date.  But if I don’t start on these articles now I’ll never finish before June 9^th, so let’s get down to business!

Best Book of a Musical

The team behind Matilda must have spent weeks taking courses on how to best impress the American press, because the critics certainly *adored* it.

 

Nominees:  Joseph Robinette, A Christmas Story; Harvey Fierstein, Kinky Boots; Dennis Kelly, Matilda the Musical; Douglas Carter Beane, Cinderella

 

In case you’re new to this blog, I want to make it very clear that I despise Douglas Carter Beane’s libretto work, and think Cinderella is the most offensively awful writing he’s done to date.  Not only is his post-modern snark in complete opposition to the overwhelming earnestness of Rodgers and Hammerstein’s score, but Beane fails to make his additions funny or compelling in their own right. His attempt to develop characters beyond their fairytale archetypes falls flat, leading to personality inconsistencies and confused motivations that the talented cast struggles to make sense of.  And the less said about his entry-level lecture on the wonders of democratic rule the better.  A three time Tony nominee, Beane clearly has his fans among the Tony voters, but there are an equal number who thought this Cinderella was a train wreck of epic proportions, and I can’t imagine him winning this category.

Joseph Robinette’s adaptation of A Christmas Story was serviceable but nothing special, and the long-closed show will have major difficulty competing with its still running rivals.  Harvey Fierstein is one of the most consistently excellent librettists in the industry, and his work on Kinky Boots once again demonstrates his uncanny ability to couple witty one-liners with genuine heart and solid story structure, creating honest if exaggerated characters that propel the narrative forward at an effervescent pace.  I imagine that Dennis Kelly’s book for Matilda is equally solid, as the Brits have a knack for strong story structure thanks to their familiarity with the classics of dramatic literature.  I am cheering for Fierstein, but I think this is one category where Matilda has the edge.

 

Should Win:  Harvey Fierstein, Kinky Boots

Will Win:  Dennis Kelly, Matilda the Musical

 

Best Score

Whatever Lola wants, Lola gets.  And Lola wants a Tony for Kinky Boots

 

Nominees:  Benj Pasek and Justin Paul, A Christmas Story; Trey Anastasio and Amanda Green, Hands on a Hardbody; Cyndi Lauper, Kinky Boot; Tim Minchin, Matilda the Musical

 

Kudos to Trey Anastasio and Amanda Green for getting recognition for the underrated Hands on a Hardbody, but this is a case where the nomination is the win, as I can’t imagine a scenario where the pair beats their higher profile competition.  With twelve total nominations and lots of critical love, Tim Minchin is certainly a contender for his work on Matilda, although from a merit-based perspective I think this is one of the British import’s weaker categories.  The score is rarely the strongest element of any British musical, and I think a win for Minchin would likely be viewed as an upset.

I’m torn about who I want to win among the remaining two nominees.  I certainly liked Cyndi Lauper’s score for Kicky Boots, which managed to fuse her distinct pop sensibility with more traditional musical theatre idioms.  She is also the biggest name in this category, and the Tony voters have a habit of rewarding celebrities from other mediums who make credible Broadway debuts.  But in the grand scheme of things, Lauper is unlikely to write another musical anytime soon, if at all, whereas University of Michigan graduates Benj Pasek and Justin Paul would most likely dedicate their lives to writing excellent shows.  Not only is A Christmas Story the most inventive and exciting score of the season (at least in my opinion), but Pasek and Paul are the most promising songwriting team to emerge in years.  I wholeheartedly believe that they could become the next Kander and Ebb or Ahrens and Flaherty, and a Tony win would give them the clout to get future projects off the ground and into production.  Broadway needs to do more to nurture the next generation of musical theatre songwriters or eventually we’ll be left with nothing but revivals and jukebox musicals, and a win for the young duo would definitely be a step in the right direction.  The smart money is on Lauper, but I’m really hoping Pasek and Paul manage to pull an Avenue Q-level upset. 

 

Should Win:  Benj Pasek and Justin Paul, A Christmas Story

Will Win:  Cyndi Lauper, Kinky Boots

 

That’s all for now.  The supporting acting categories are up next, and don’t forget to check out the previous articles in my Tony Predictions series:

 

Best Choreography and Direction

2013 Tony Nomination React

2013 Tony Predictions: Best Choreography and Direction

Now that the 2013 Tony nominations have been announced and we’ve all had time to process who’s in the running for Broadway’s biggest honor, it’s time to get down to my favorite part of the awards season: wild speculation about the eventual winners!  Okay, maybe not “wild,” as I really do try to have an informed opinion about these things, but the simple truth of the matter is I can’t see every nominated show and sometimes have to base my predictions on media buzz and second-hand info. 

Like last year, I’ll be writing a series of articles giving detailed analysis of the major Tony races, along with predictions of who will win in each category.  And if I think another nominee is more deserving than the probable winner, I’ll be sure to point that out too.  Unlike last year, you can also look forward to a roundtable podcast discussion in early June where the entire panel will chime in on who they think will win each of the Big 12 (production and acting) categories.  And with all of that said, let’s look at the nominees for Best Choreography and Best Direction!

Best Chorography

Billy Porter and the cast of the high kicking musical Kinky Boots

Nominees:  Andy Blankenbuehler, Bring It On; Peter Darling, Matilda the Musical; Jerry Mitchell, Kinky Boots; Chet Walker, Pippin

This year saw Broadway choreography move away from dance in the traditional sense, which makes predicting the winner in this category more difficult than usual.  Andy Blankenbuehler’s cheerleading routines for Bring It On were easily the musical’s highlight, but the fact that the show closed months ago combined with the lack of traditional dance moves will probably keep him out of serious contention.  And while Pippin features the most visually arresting musical numbers of the Broadway season, my gut tells me that Tony voters credit Diane Paulus and Gypsy Snider for its success more than choreographer Chet Walker.

Like many races this season, the category will probably come down to Kinky Boots and Matilda.  Boots is hardly Jerry Mitchell’s best work from a purely choreographic standpoint, but voters may feel like the well-respected director/choreographer is long overdue for a second Tony Award; despite six career nominations in this category, he’s only won once.  A win for Mitchell also allows the voters to recognize his contributions to this season’s most nominated musical while freeing up the Best Director statuette for someone else.  Although Matilda’s Peter Darling has won this award before, my gut tells me that despite his show’s rapturous critical reception Kinky Boots is going to be the big winner on Tony Sunday, including in this category.

Should Win:  Andy Blankenbuehler, Bring It On

Will Win:  Jerry Mitchell, Kinky Boots

 

Best Direction of a Play

Pam MacKinnon's knockout production of the classic Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?

Nominees:  Pam MacKinnon, Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?; Nicholas Martin, Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike; Bartlett Sher, Golden Boy; George C. Wolfe, Lucky Guy

 

With the exception of Vanya and Sonia’s Nicholas Martin, every member of this category is a repeat nominee.  I think that kind of pedigree will keep Martin out of serious contention, especially given the Tony voters’ bias against comedic plays.  And while Lucky Guy is one of the biggest financial successes of the spring, I’m sensing that the theatrical community at large is starting to feel that their nostalgia for the late Nora Ephron led to a decent play being praised more than it actually merits, which will hurt George C. Wolfe’s chances.

Both Bartlett Sher and Pam MacKinnon managed to pull of the deceptively hard task to making old plays feel fresh without betraying their original intent or layering on a directorial concept that seems inorganic and contrived.  The critical hosannas that greeted both plays were deafening, and in this case I think the Tony voters will opt to recognize MacKinnon over Sher.  Virginia Woolf is a play that industry folks have studied and seen produced countless times; the fact that MacKinnon managed to find something fresh in this oft-produced work, coupled with her ability to coax four absolutely incredible performances out of her actors, practically demands she receive Broadway’s highest honor.

Will & Should Win:  Pam MacKinnon, Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?

 

Best Direction of a Musical

With Pippin, director Diane Paulus has managed to top her own lofty standards.

 

Nominees:  Scott Ellis, The Mystery of Edwin Drood; Jerry Mitchell, Kinky Boots; Diane Paulus, Pippin; Matthew Warcus, Matilda

 

I won’t mince words here:  a win by anyone other than Diane Paulus would be criminal here.  More than any other nominee, Paulus has put such a distinctive stamp on her show that separating the two is nigh-impossible.  She is simply one of the best directors working today, able to apply exciting new concepts to shows most would have written off as hopelessly dated without violating the spirit and artistic vision of the original.  Her Pippin is magical, thanks largely to her insistence on the addition of the circus elements and razor sharp direction that goes a long way towards disguising the show’s narrative flaws.  Factor in the fact that she was also responsible for the Tony-winning Hair and Porgy and Bess, and Paulus is long overdue for some Tony love.

Thankfully, I don’t think any of the other directors really have a chance of dethroning her.  Scott Ellis performed the neat trick of taking a terrible show and making it eminently entertaining, but as the only show not currently running his Drood is at a distinct disadvantage.  And despite several Broadway outings as director, Jerry Mitchell is still viewed primarily as a choreographer and is unlikely to score an upset.  Tony voters’ affection for Matilda’s Matthew Warcus has cooled considerably from its heyday several seasons ago, and while he is Paulus’ biggest competition I just can’t imagine him overthrowing the reigning Queen of the Broadway Musical.

Will & Should Win:  Diane Paulus, Pippin

 

That’s all for now.  Check back soon for my picks for Best Book and Score!

2013 Tony Nomination React

Emmy Award-nominee Jesse Tyler Ferguson and two-time Tony-winner Sutton Foster announcing the 2013 Tony Award nominations.  Interestingly, both of these self-professed Broadway babies have left the Great White Way for the big, fat paychecks offered by Hollywood.

Well, that was interesting.  The 2013 Tony nominations were announced this past Tuesday, and it was a curious case of the predictable and the surprising.  It seems like most categories shaped up the way prognosticators (including me!) predicted, and yet almost every race includes one curve ball either in the form of a surprise inclusion or omission.  Below you can see a list of the official nominees in the eight categories I predicted, with the starred entries indicating the productions and people I guessed correctly.

 

Best Play

*The Assembled Parties
 *Lucky Guy
 The Testament of Mary
 *Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike

Thoughts:  Three out of four ain’t bad, and to be honest I doubt many people could have predicted the surprise inclusion of The Testament of Mary (even among this season’s solo shows, I wouldn’t have called it a frontrunner).  The fact that the show posted a closing notice hours after the nominations came out is even more puzzling, and pretty much guarantees that Mary has no chance of actually winning this award.

 

Best Musical

(*)Bring It On: The Musical
* A Christmas Story: The Musical
 *Kinky Boots
 *Matilda: The Musical

 Thoughts:  I’m actually pretty thrilled with this category.  It lines up with what I consider the four strongest new musicals of the season (although to be fair, I haven’t actually seen Matilda or Motown yet).  I’m especially happy the highly entertaining Bring It On made the cut, as I had thought the show too long gone to be in serious contention.  Occasionally the Tony committee surprises us all by getting things right.

 

Best Revival of a Play

*Golden Boy
 Orphans
 *The Trip to Bountiful
 *Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?

Thoughts:  Orphans?  Really?  I never even considered the Alec Baldwin vehicle for this slot, as the reviews ranged from “it wasn’t terrible” to “this script should never have made it to Broadway.”  But this has been a two horse race between Woolf and Golden Boy since late fall anyway, so I guess it doesn’t really matter.

 

Best Revival of a Musical

*Annie
 *The Mystery of Edwin Drood
 *Pippin
 *Rodgers + Hammerstein's Cinderella

Thoughts:  A perfect score in this category.  Not that picking these four was hard, as there was no way in hell the Tony committee would bring itself to nominate Jekyll & Hyde.

 

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play

 *Tom Hanks, Lucky Guy
 *Nathan Lane, The Nance
 *Tracy Letts, Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?
 (*)David Hyde Pierce, Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike
 Tom Sturridge, Orphans

Thoughts:  The moral here is never, ever bet against David Hyde Pierce.  I think a lot of people (myself included) were surprised to see Alan Cumming shut out of this category, as a nomination for him would have been a way to acknowledge both his performance and the production itself.  And I don’t think Tom Sturridge was on anyone’s radar heading into Tuesday morning; getting nominated is an accomplishment in and of itself, but beating out his high profile costar Alec Baldwin is the real win here.

 

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play

 *Laurie Metcalf, The Other Place
 *Amy Morton, Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?
 Kristine Nielsen, Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike
 Holland Taylor, Ann
 *Cicely Tyson, The Trip to Bountiful

Thoughts:  Several surprises in this category.  I’m not necessarily *shocked* that Holland Taylor made the cut, as it is a nice way for the Tony committee to recognize both her performance and playwriting skills, but I didn’t expect them to go for her over both Bette Midler and Fiona Shaw.  It’s also surprising that Shaw’s The Testament of Mary managed to crack the production category but the actress herself wasn’t nominated; maybe they were trying to spread the wealth?  Kristine Nielsen’s inclusion shows that there is a fair amount of love for Vanya and Sonia… (as does the play’s strong showing overall), but Richard Greenberg’s The Assembled Parties may not be as beloved as the reviews suggested.  The omission of its leading lady Jessica Hecht is surprising, especially since she received better notices than costar Judith Light (who was nominated in the Supporting category).

 

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical

 *Bertie Carvel, Matilda: The Musical
 Santino Fontana, Rodgers + Hammerstein's Cinderella
 *Rob McClure, Chaplin
 *Billy Porter, Kinky Boots
 Stark Sands, Kinky Boots

Thoughts:  The exclusion of Annie’s Anthony Warlow from this category is one of this year’s biggest snubs, as his portrayal of Daddy Warbucks is easily more accomplished than the likable but bland Santino Fontana and Stark Sands.  If it were up to me Warlow would have Fontana’s spot, since the latter’s cloying Prince Topher comes across as the work of a reasonably talented high school student.  I’m surprised the love for Pippin didn’t transfer to its leading man, although the more subdued nature of his performance probably prevented him from standing out.

 

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical

 *Stephanie J. Block, The Mystery of Edwin Drood
 *Carolee Carmello, Scandalous
 Valisia LeKae, Motown the Musical
 *Patina Miller, Pippin
 *Laura Osnes, Rodgers + Hammerstein's Cinderella

Thoughts:  Yawn.  There are some very lovely, very talented actresses among this group of nominees, and I don’t begrudge any of them their nominations.  It is especially nice to see the hard-working Stephanie J. Block get her moment in the sun after years as a reliable replacement or the star of stalled works like The Pirate Queen.  But for the first time in years, this category lacks the kind of electrifying diva performance which is usually its hallmark.  Even when the category only had four nominees back in 2011, one of those women was Sutton Foster doing career-best work in Anything Goes.  Everyone in this category is talented, but I don’t think any of them have found their signature role yet.

 

For those of you keeping score, I correctly guess 26 out of 36 of these nominees, for a 72% success rate (which is slightly worse than the 82% I did last year, but jumps to 78% if you include my runner-up predictions as correct guesses).  Some final thoughts:

 

-In some ways it’s sad this is even a celebration, but I am thrilled that the entire Best Score category comes from actual musicals this year instead of plays.  I’m especially happy to see the incredibly promising team of Benj Pasek and Justin Paul included, and I think this is that start of great things to come from the University of Michigan grads.

-It has become clear to me that the Tony committee and I simply don’t see eye to eye on Douglas Carter Beane, but his nomination for Best Book of a Musical still enrages me.  I don’t know which is the greater crime: the fact that he completely disregards the tone and spirit of Rodgers and Hammerstein’s work, or that his writing is an unfunny, unfocused mess that drags the entire enterprise down with it.  Sister Act, Lysistrata Jones, and now Cinderella all had enormous structural issues that made me wish the characters would just shut up and sing, and yet Beane has been Tony-nominated for every single one of them.  What a travesty.

-I am thrilled to see Carrie Coon nominated for her hilarious work as a completely plastered Honey in last fall’s Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?  I can’t recall that last time I’ve seen someone play drunk so effectively onstage.

-I’m happy to see both Will Chase and Terrance Mann nominated for their scenery chewing work in Drood and Pippin respectively.  All aspiring hams should look to these two for a lesson on what appropriate mugging looks like, as both men scored major laughs without once distracting from their works’ overall narrative and pace.

-I would just like to point out that Kenneth Posner has three of the four Best Lighting Design of a Musical nominations.  I expect he will be even more prolific in the future.

-I’m really really REALLY rooting for Diane Paulus to win Best Director this year.  She is the most consistently exciting director working in musical theatre today, and this Pippin (just like Hair and Porgy and Bess before it) wouldn’t have been nearly as good without her involvement.

 

That’s all I can think of at the moment, but rest assured I have plenty more to say about this year’s Tony Awards.  In the coming month look for plenty of posts predicting the winners, as well as the return of the Broadway, Etc. Podcast for a roundtable discussion about some of this year’s more interesting races.  And there will probably be a review or two thrown in just for fun, especially since Matilda garnered twelve nominations and I’ve yet to see it.  Stay tuned!