2013 Tony Perdictions: Best Book and Score

It’s the middle of awards season here in NYC, and the name on everybody’s lips is “Tony.”  Last time I predicted who would win the coveted statuette in the Choreography and Direction categories; today, I pick who will and should win the awards for Best Book and Score.  At this point I should mention that I have still not seen Matilda, which is obviously one of the major competitors in these races, so there will be some speculation and possible bias going on here.  I reserve the right to change my predictions after seeing the show, and if I do, look for an updated entry at a later date.  But if I don’t start on these articles now I’ll never finish before June 9^th, so let’s get down to business!

Best Book of a Musical

The team behind Matilda must have spent weeks taking courses on how to best impress the American press, because the critics certainly *adored* it.

 

Nominees:  Joseph Robinette, A Christmas Story; Harvey Fierstein, Kinky Boots; Dennis Kelly, Matilda the Musical; Douglas Carter Beane, Cinderella

 

In case you’re new to this blog, I want to make it very clear that I despise Douglas Carter Beane’s libretto work, and think Cinderella is the most offensively awful writing he’s done to date.  Not only is his post-modern snark in complete opposition to the overwhelming earnestness of Rodgers and Hammerstein’s score, but Beane fails to make his additions funny or compelling in their own right. His attempt to develop characters beyond their fairytale archetypes falls flat, leading to personality inconsistencies and confused motivations that the talented cast struggles to make sense of.  And the less said about his entry-level lecture on the wonders of democratic rule the better.  A three time Tony nominee, Beane clearly has his fans among the Tony voters, but there are an equal number who thought this Cinderella was a train wreck of epic proportions, and I can’t imagine him winning this category.

Joseph Robinette’s adaptation of A Christmas Story was serviceable but nothing special, and the long-closed show will have major difficulty competing with its still running rivals.  Harvey Fierstein is one of the most consistently excellent librettists in the industry, and his work on Kinky Boots once again demonstrates his uncanny ability to couple witty one-liners with genuine heart and solid story structure, creating honest if exaggerated characters that propel the narrative forward at an effervescent pace.  I imagine that Dennis Kelly’s book for Matilda is equally solid, as the Brits have a knack for strong story structure thanks to their familiarity with the classics of dramatic literature.  I am cheering for Fierstein, but I think this is one category where Matilda has the edge.

 

Should Win:  Harvey Fierstein, Kinky Boots

Will Win:  Dennis Kelly, Matilda the Musical

 

Best Score

Whatever Lola wants, Lola gets.  And Lola wants a Tony for Kinky Boots

 

Nominees:  Benj Pasek and Justin Paul, A Christmas Story; Trey Anastasio and Amanda Green, Hands on a Hardbody; Cyndi Lauper, Kinky Boot; Tim Minchin, Matilda the Musical

 

Kudos to Trey Anastasio and Amanda Green for getting recognition for the underrated Hands on a Hardbody, but this is a case where the nomination is the win, as I can’t imagine a scenario where the pair beats their higher profile competition.  With twelve total nominations and lots of critical love, Tim Minchin is certainly a contender for his work on Matilda, although from a merit-based perspective I think this is one of the British import’s weaker categories.  The score is rarely the strongest element of any British musical, and I think a win for Minchin would likely be viewed as an upset.

I’m torn about who I want to win among the remaining two nominees.  I certainly liked Cyndi Lauper’s score for Kicky Boots, which managed to fuse her distinct pop sensibility with more traditional musical theatre idioms.  She is also the biggest name in this category, and the Tony voters have a habit of rewarding celebrities from other mediums who make credible Broadway debuts.  But in the grand scheme of things, Lauper is unlikely to write another musical anytime soon, if at all, whereas University of Michigan graduates Benj Pasek and Justin Paul would most likely dedicate their lives to writing excellent shows.  Not only is A Christmas Story the most inventive and exciting score of the season (at least in my opinion), but Pasek and Paul are the most promising songwriting team to emerge in years.  I wholeheartedly believe that they could become the next Kander and Ebb or Ahrens and Flaherty, and a Tony win would give them the clout to get future projects off the ground and into production.  Broadway needs to do more to nurture the next generation of musical theatre songwriters or eventually we’ll be left with nothing but revivals and jukebox musicals, and a win for the young duo would definitely be a step in the right direction.  The smart money is on Lauper, but I’m really hoping Pasek and Paul manage to pull an Avenue Q-level upset. 

 

Should Win:  Benj Pasek and Justin Paul, A Christmas Story

Will Win:  Cyndi Lauper, Kinky Boots

 

That’s all for now.  The supporting acting categories are up next, and don’t forget to check out the previous articles in my Tony Predictions series:

 

Best Choreography and Direction

2013 Tony Nomination React

All in the Timing

Goodbye, Breakfast at Tiffany's.  We hardly knew you.

Here’s a fun bit of theatrical trivia: almost half of the shows eligible for the 2013 Tony Awards will open between March 1^st and April 25^th (the cutoff date for Tony consideration).  If that seems excessive, well, it is.  But conventional wisdom states that spring shows have a better chance at doing well during awards season, and the fact seems to support that assertion.  In the last twenty years, 63% of the winners for Best Musical, Play, and Revival have opened between February and May, so it makes sense that producers would choose this time of year to launch their productions.  The spring also sees a massive influx of tourists into the NYC area, something that begins in March and doesn’t let up until September, meaning there are a lot of tourist dollars up for grabs.

But there’s a flip side to this entire situation, one most producers seem to willfully ignore.  More shows equals more competition, and unless your show is one of the buzzed about productions with either star power or major awards pedigree, it cannot hope to compete in such a crowded marketplace.  Two shows from late March, the new musical Hands on a Hardbody and the stage adaptation of Breakfast at Tiffany’s, have been forced to shutter after less than a month of performances.

Now, I don’t think anyone can honestly claim that they find this news surprising.  In the weeks leading up to the shows’ respective openings, there was a definite air of dismissal among the theatrical press about the merits of both shows.  The idea of any actress tackling an iconic Audrey Hepburn role is dubious at best, and given it to the untested (onstage, at least) Emilia Clarke did little to assuage doubts that Tiffany’s would prove to be a wholly unnecessary adaptation.  Meanwhile the very premise of Hands on a Hardbody is so inherently static – it chronicles a contest where ten Texans attempt to win a truck by keeping their hand on it the longest – many wondered how it could possibly sustain a two hour plus musical. 

And therein lies the problems.  Rather than attempting to launch their shows against highly anticipated productions like Lucky Guy (which has an A-list actor and beloved author to help sell tickets) and Matilda (the latest British import to arrive with a boatload of glowing reviews from the West End), Hardbody and Tiffany’s would likely have lasted much longer had they opened during a slower portion of the Broadway season.  Other parts of the year may not have as many tourists looking to spend money, but there is an entire population of local theatregoers who would love to have new shows to see in, say, January or late August.  I don’t think either show would have been a hit – especially given the lukewarm reviews both shows received – but they might have scored enough additional traffic to run for a few more months.

I have said it before and I will say it again: producers need to consider scheduling their opening nights in months besides October, November, March, and April.  Shows with little buzz and mediocre reviews can do quite well when there is less competition, and the longer a show runs the more time it has to build up good word-of-mouth to counteract any negative press.  Even the most diehard Broadway fan only has a finite amount of time and money, and when presented with as many options as are currently available those fans will have to prioritize.  This is one of the most crowded spring seasons in recent memory, and hopefully producers will learn their lesson from the failures of Hardbody and Tiffany’s and consider spreading things out a bit more next year.

Podcast Episode 7: Spring Preview Part 2

Jared, Brian, and Christopher continue their discussion of this spring's upcoming Broadway productions, this time focusing on the musicals slated to hit the Great White Way in the coming months. Although at first glance it looks like slim pickings, a closer examination reveals a lot to get excited about. Which new show is the panel most excited about? Can Pippin continue Diane Paulus' Best Revival winning streak? Does anybody even remember that they're doing Pump Boys and Dinnettes?!?