2014 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part III (Best Actor)

As the announcement of the 2014 Tony nominees draws ever closer, I continue my valiant (insane?) effort to try and predict the nominees in all the major categories.  I've already tackled the production and Best Actress categories; today I take my best guess at Best Actor.  Again, my predictions are based on a very unscientific mixture of first-hand experience, industry hearsay, and gut feeling (but I tend to have a pretty good record at these sorts of things).  And I will always pick a Wildcard performer who I think has the greatest chance of unseating one of my presumptive five nominees.

On with the show!

Best Actor

Bryan Cranston should probably look into expanding the trophy wing of his house in the near future.

An embarrassment of riches that will probably see a fair amount of Hollywood talent nominated, the Best Actor race is a difficult one for me to get a read on.  No one seems to be a runaway favorite for either a nomination or a win, but some bets are safer than others.  Everybody loved Bryan Cranston in Breaking Bad, and it sounds like his acting skills have made the transition to the stage intact.  He's as close to a sure thing in this category as they come.  A week ago I would have considered The Glass Menagerie's Zachary Quinto a lock in this category, but his absence from both the Drama Desk and Outer Critics Circle lists makes his position rather precarious.  Formerly presumptive nominee Denzel Washington may also be in danger, as the theatrical community doesn't seem nearly as enamored with his performance in A Raisin in the Sun as they were with his (in my opinion overrated) star turn in Fences a few seasons back.

So if two of the presumptive nominees are in danger of losing their slots, who is challenging them?  For starters, Patrick Stewart and Ian McKellen, theatrical institutions who were roundly praised for their work in both Waiting for Godot and No Man's Land.  McKellen in particular has stated that this year's shows are likely his Broadway swan song, which means this could be the last chance ever for Tony voters to honor him with a second statuette (and his work in No Man's Land has already garnered him nods in the other guild awards).  Chris O'Dowd has wowed critics with his work as the gentle giant Lennie in Of Mice and Men, an award-bait role if there ever was one (mentally handicapped AND a tragic death).  And both Tony Shalhoub and Santino Fontano received raves for their work in Lincoln Center's Act One, although I doubt the category has room for both of them.  Given Shalhoub's seniority, and I'd say he has the edge, and Fontano will just have to console himself with last year's nomination and those royalty checks from the Frozen soundtrack.

In the unlikely but still possible category we have theatre vets Patrick Page and Roger Rees, for Casa Valentina and The Winslow Boy respectively.  Rees seemed to be more of the clear-cut lead of his show (Valentina is very much an ensemble piece), so if one of them was going to sneak in here it would be him.  I also wouldn't rule out Daniel Radcliffe, who gets steadily better reviews with each Broadway outing, although his role in The Cripple of Inishmaan doesn't allow him to show the range the other contenders in this category possess.

Nominees:
Bryan Cranston, All the Way
Chris O'Dowd, Of Mice and Men
Ian McKellen, No Man's Land
Zachary Quinto, The Glass Menagerie
Tony Shalhoub, Act One

Wildcards:
Daniel Radcliffe, The Cripple of Inishmaan
Denzel Washington, A Raisin in the Sun

Best Actor in a Musical

I don't remember this much smiling in Rocky, either onstage or from the audience.

In surveying this category, I am struck by how many men are doing solid work in questionable productions.  Ramin Karimloo single-handedly makes the ill-advised Les Miserables watchable, and Andy Karl manages to rise above the truly awful material he's given in Rocky to become a bonafide Broadway star.  Despite the questionable quality of their shows, I think both men are in a good positions to score their first-ever Tony nominations on Tuesday, although neither is a sure thing.  That honor goes to Neil Patrick Harris, who blew almost everyone away as a transgendered rocker in Hedwig and the Angry Inch.  The fact the beloved cult musical is even on Broadway is entirely due to Harris' attachment to the property, and the fact that all the critics loved it is a testament to how well the multitalented entertainer embodies the spirit of the piece.  (Besides, we kind of owe him for his years of being an amazing Tony host and all around enthusiastic theatre ambassador.)

Then we have the question of what to do about Jefferson Mays' and Bryce Pinkham's dual starring turns in A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder.  Mays has long been considered a frontrunner in this category for his madcap portrayal of all eight members of the doomed D'Ysquith clan, but Pinkham is every bit as good in the tougher and arguably more demanding role (if Pinkham wasn't carrying the show, Mays wouldn't be free to ham it up so gleefully).  In recent years, having two strong male co-leads has led to both men scoring nominations (see Josh Gad and Andrew Rannells in The Book of Mormon, or Billy Porter and Stark Sands in Kinky Boots), and that is a distinct possibility here.  I personally am rooting for Pinkham, who blew me away with his effortless charm and gorgeous tenor.

But if all five of the above men make it, that leaves no room for the very deserving Norbert Leo Butz and Steven Pasquale, which seems almost criminal given their amazing performances this season.  Although Big Fish as a show sharply divided audiences and critics, no one can argue with the Herculean work Butz did in the lead role; however, with two wins and four total nominations to his name, I think the Tony committee will choose to spread the wealth this year and leave Butz out of consideration.  But Pasquale has no previous nominations and is sensational in The Bridges of Madison County, with singing and acting chops every bit the equal to his luminous costar Kelli O'Hara.  Ultimately, I think a nomination is in the cards for Pasquale, most likely to the detriment of Karimloo, who will be done in by the critical indifference to his show.  At least everyone can take comfort in the fact they don't have to compete against Alan Cumming's resurrected Emcee, since the Scottish thespian is ineligible due to the fact that he already won the Tony the last time he played the role.

Nominees:
Neil Patrick Harris, Hedwig and the Angry Inch
Andy Karl, Rocky
Jefferson Mays, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder
Steven Pasquale, The Bridges of Madison County
Bryce Pinkham, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder

Wildcards:
Norbert Leo Butz, Big Fish
Ramin Karimloo, Les Miserables


That's all for now.  Join me tomorrow for the toughest and sometimes most arbitrary predictions of the year:  Best Featured Actor and Actress!

See the rest of my Tony coverage:
2014 Tony Nominee Predictions Part I (Production)
2014 Tony Nominee Predictions Part II (Best Actress)

One Song More

Review: Les Miserables

You might think that it's makeup that makes Ramin Karimloo look older by the end of Les Miserables, but the show is just that long.

Full disclosure: the first Broadway show I ever saw was the original production of Les Miserables, towards the tail end of its run.  I came into the Imperial Theatre knowing every word of the two-disc cast recording, and the ensuing three hours was pure magic.  I don't know if this makes me more or less qualified to pass judgement on the recently opened and reimagined production; I'm obviously fond of the material, but I also have powerful memories of the original staging.  Being as objective as possible, it is my sad duty to report that while aspects of this revival truly sing, it ultimately doesn't justify remounting this classic show so soon after it's last Broadway appearance.

Adapted from Victor Hugo's sprawling French novel, Les Miserables is at its core the story of convicted thief Jean Valjean and his efforts to find redemption after being shown compassion by an elderly Bishop.  Valjean changes his name, and through a rather circuitous set of circumstances agrees to care for the young daughter of a dying factory worker named Fantine.  Valjean moves with his new charge to Paris and raises her while avoiding the suspicions of the rigid Inspector Javert, who doesn't believe in redemption and still holds Valjean accountable for breaking his parole two decades later.  If this all sounds a bit convoluted, that's what happens when one tries to condense a thousand page novel into a three hour contemporary opera.

Laurence Connor and James Powell's updated staging (which ditches the original's famous turntable in favor of more traditional scenic design) highlights the weakness in the show's plotting.  All the essential details are in Alain Boublil and Claude-Michel Schonberg's score, but they are easy to miss if the director (or directors, in this case) aren't actively highlighting them.  This staging is narratively muddy and seems to deemphasize the story's emotional throughline, which makes all of the death and suffering drag on into eternity.  This production doesn't actually run longer than the original's three hour runtime, but it does drag in a way the old show didn't.  Without the emotional investment in the quickly sketched characters, the show's plot contrivances and leaps in logic stick out like sore thumbs.  Does anyone without a history degree understand who General Lamarc was, or why his death prompted a bunch of students to stage a revolution that eventually got them all killed?  And how does a policeman the entire city fears manage to go undercover by changing his coat (only to be called out by a prepubescent boy)?

On the positive side, Boublil and Schonberg's score is as lovely as ever, and although the nostop parade of power ballads becomes tiresome by evening's end, there's no denying that those ballads sure do sound pretty.  The show is also one of the more intelligent examples of repeated motifs and melodic reprises to come out of the British Invasion of the 80s, and thanks to new orchestrations the show is free of the overly synthesized sound that defines so much of the music from that era.

The one unequivocally great thing about this revival is Ramin Karimloo's superbly sung and acted Jean Valjean.  Already an established star in London's West End, Karimloo is a force of nature as the wronged but deeply noble Valjean.  There is an animalistic intensity to his performance that immediately grabs you, and watching Karimloo temper that fury as his character ages and matures is electrifying.  Karimloo is blessed with a spine-tinglingly good tenor that sounds fantastic on his many big numbers, and he attacks the part with a ferocity and conviction that he grounds all of the melodramatic spectacle through the sheer force of his sincerity.  Seeing Karimloo perform Valjean's iconic second act ballad "Bring Him Home," a prayer that God spare the life of his daughter's newfound love, is a masterclass in vocal technique and musical storytelling.  For those glorious three minutes, everything else melts away and this Les Miserables becomes the emotionally stirring story it so desperately wants to be.

The rest of the cast is hit or miss.  Will Swenson acquits himself much better than expected as the ruthless Inspector Javert, sharing a particularly strong chemistry with Karimloo.  Their scenes pop with a deliciously menacing energy; their "Confrontation" feels genuinely dangerous, as if one or both men could snap at any moment (it is also one of the more convincing instances of combat in a show where the onstage violence often looks laughably fake).  Unfortunately, Swenson is singing outside of his comfort zone, which robs his two big solos of the vocal heft they deserve.  Meanwhile, Andy Mientus makes for a bland Marius, and Kyle Scatliffe's student revolutionary Enjolras is all bark and no bite.

Among the women, Cassie Levy comes across the best as the doomed Fantine, although her well-sung version of "I Dreamed a Dream" isn't the emotional sucker punch the show needs it to be.  Tony-winner Nikki M. James appears lost in the role of lovelorn street urchin Eponine, wandering the stage uncertainly during her Act II power ballad "On My Own."  The youthful innocence and genuine longing she demonstrated in The Book of Mormon is curiously absent here, making her supposed unrequited love for Marius feel forced and the pair's final duet unearned.  And while the pretty ingénue Cosette is a woefully underwritten joke of a role, surely there exists an actress who can do more with it than the underwhelming Samantha Hill.

The show's only (and desperately needed) comic relief is provided by Cliff Saunders and Keala Settle as Mr. and Mrs. Thenardier, the shifty innkeepers who have been caring for Cosette before Valjean comes to take her away.  While Thenardier's songs provide a welcomed injection of levity into the night's proceedings, Saunders mugs so shamelessly that he ends up being just as tiresome as all of the gloom and doom.  Meanwhile, Settle proves that her Tony-nominated performance in Hands on a Hardbody was not a fluke, turning her brief stagetime into some of the most memorable minutes of this overblown revival.  Settle milks the role of Madame Thenardier for all it's worth, and one can only hope this talented actress' next vehicle offers her more of a chance to showcase her talents.

Visually, the show wavers between being a beautiful mess and just a mess, often within the same scene.  Some of Matt Kinley's scenic design is stunning - his multi-tiered vision of the Paris streets is particularly impressive - while some of it clearly suffers from the lack of the original's turntable (several portions of the barricade sequence aren't nearly as effective without being able to rotate the thing around to see what's on the other side).  Andreane Neofitou and Christine Rowland's costumes appear cheap, even on the characters who aren't dressed in tattered rags, and Paule Constable's lighting design is far too dark for much of the show's runtime.  There are times when the grandeur of the original production is sorely missed, especially since the lack of bells and whistles tends to expose the weaknesses in the storytelling.

Ultimately, this Les Miserables does little to disguise the fact that it is a cash grab meant to capitalize on renewed interest generated by the Oscar-winning film version.  The songs are as gorgeous as ever and generally well sung, if not always well acted, and Ramin Karimloo's portrayal of Jean Valjean *almost* justifies the price of admission.  If Mr. Karimloo's costars were all at his level, this production would be one of the highlights of the season, but instead it is an inoffensive diversion that slightly outstays its welcome thanks to a mammoth runtime.  Hopefully the producers of the next Broadway production will wait until there's a truly compelling, new take on the material before promising the audience "one day more."