2018 Tony Predictions: Best Play and Musical

After a month of celebration and speculation, the 2018 Tony Awards are almost upon us! All that's left to predict are Best Play and Best Musical, the two awards most likely to positively impact a show's success on Broadway and beyond. Best Musical in particular can make or break a show; Wicked was going to run regardless, but does anyone think Avenue Q would have had the life it's had without the boost provided by its surprise Best Musical win?

So which shows will triumph at Sunday night's ceremony? And do they actual deserve to win? Read on to find out!

Best Play

The Broadway cast of Harry Potter and the Cursed Child.

Nominees: The Children; Farinelli and the King; Harry Potter and the Cursed Child; Junk; Latin History for Morons

I could expend a lot of mental energy trying to concoct scenarios where Harry Potter and the Cursed Child loses this award, but its win feels so assured that it would be a waste of time. Like Best Revival of a Play frontrunner Angels in America, Cursed Child is an epic two-part play that by all accounts has expertly translated JK Rowling's Wizarding World to the stage, including reportedly jaw dropping feats of stage magic (Potter is almost certain to sweep the design categories). Lovingly crafted and beautifully acted, the consensus is the play actually deserves the massive financial success its enjoyed since before previews even started, when it amassed a staggering $20 million in advanced ticket sales. Cursed Child is also the only show in this category currently running, which has always been a massive advantage when it comes to winning Tonys. The only real negative for the show is that a win here can't really boost the already sky high box office for a show that remains sold out for many months to come.

Will & Should Win: Harry Potter and the Cursed Child

Best Musical

Ethan Slater and the Broadway cast of SpongeBob SquarePants.

Nominees: The Band's Visit; Frozen; Mean Girls; SpongeBob SquarePants

Now this is an interesting race. The only show I feel comfortable completely ruling out is Frozen, a competent stage adaptation of Disney's blockbuster film that failed to make much of an impression on Tony nominators or the theatre community at large. That's not to be confused with outright failure, as the $1.8 million in weekly grosses attests, but it certainly hasn't captured the imagination in the way The Lion King did back in 1998. And without at least some passionate supporters in your camp, it is very difficult to win Best Musical.

The conventional wisdom is The Band's Visit will win this award, but there are some important caveats that need to be taken into account. It is not the most nominated show of the season - both Mean Girls and SpongeBob got more total nods - and while that doesn't always correlate with a Best Musical win leading the nomination pack certain helps a show's overall chances. The Band's Visit is clearly the *critic's* favorite musical (see all the "Best of the Year" mentions it loudly trumpets in its marketing campaigns), but the critics haven't been able to vote for the Tonys since the 2009-2010. Not coincidentally, that was the season clear critical favorite and most nominated musical Fela! was bested by the more accessible and crowd pleasing Memphis for Best Musical, a particularly relevant piece of Tony history as The Band's Visit is similarly so concerned with being Art that it sometimes forgets to be entertaining.

If I was a Tony voter, I would vote for Mean Girls, the show that best combines sheer entertainment value with theatrical craft and some emotional depth. Tina Fey's adaptation of her iconic film is a blisteringly funny satire of teen cliques that genuinely has something to say about the way people treat one another. It keeps everything that made the movie enjoyable while finding new and interesting takes on the familiar plots and characters, including an extended metaphor about predator and prey and more nuanced investigations of many of the side characters. Add an appealing young cast and director Casey Nicholaw's trademark energy and you have a surefire crowd pleaser whose only real fault is that it tries so hard to make you like it.

But while Mean Girls has been consistently nominated for big awards, it has struggled to win most of them, often losing to fellow Best Musical nominee SpongeBob SquarePants. Admiration for the Nickelodeon adaptation has been steadily growing throughout the spring, including strong showings at both the Outer Critic's Circle and Drama Desk Awards, where it took home top honors. It has successfully capitalized on its underdog status to become a major contender, and the more I think about it the more I expect a "surprise" upset for this little show that could on Sunday night. The Band's Visit, perhaps a victim of its own hype, has proven disappointing and/or alienating to a fair number of people, while SpongeBob has consistently impressed by being a lot better than it has any right to be. If Memphis can beat Fela! and Kinky Boots can beat Matilda, SpongeBob can certainly beat The Band's Visit, and honestly probably deserves to.

Will Win: SpongeBob SquarePants
Should Win: Mean Girls

And that's it for this year's Tony predictions! Tune in to the Tony telecast on Sunday, June 10th to find out how I did, and check back early next week to get my final thoughts on this season's winners! In the meantime, make your voice heard in the comments, and check out the rest of my Tony coverage by clicking below:

Tony Nominations React
Book and Score
Direction and Choreography
Featured Actor
Featured Actress
Actor
Actress
Revival

2018 Tony Predictions: Book and Score

And just like that, it's Tony season! As always, I will be doing my best to predict this year's winners, and pointing out any discrepancies between who I think *will* win and who *deserves* to win in my analysis. This season has not produced a Hamilton or Dear Evan Hansen level juggernaut, which actually makes a lot of the races more interesting as there isn't a runaway smash to dominate the new musical categories like Best Book and Best Score. So how do I think these two prestigious categories will go down? Read on to find out!

Best Book

Erika Henningson as Cady Heron and Ashley Park, Taylor Louderman, and Karen Rockwell as the titular Mean Girls.

Nominees: Itamar Moses, The Band's Visit; Jennifer Lee, Frozen; Tina Fey, Mean Girls; Kyle Jarrow, SpongeBob SquarePants

No point in beating around the bush: this is Tina Fey's award to lose. Her book for Mean Girls is just as hysterically funny and endlessly quotable as the film, and although this is her Broadway debut she is a beloved comedy icon the Broadway community has welcomed with open arms. Her greatest competition is Itamar Moses for The Band's Visit, a critical darling of a musical character study which I found to be lacking in the character department. Understated to a fault, Moses' book does a poor job of transitioning into the musical numbers or sufficiently establishing the characters when they aren't singing, leaving the whole show feeling dramatically inert.

If anyone truly deserves to upset Fey it's Kyle Jarrow, who crafted an original narrative for SpongeBob SquarePants that for the most part seamlessly integrates the songs of over a dozen pop artists. He's a big reason SpongeBob feels like a proper musical and not a corporation-birthed Frankenstein monster, and he deftly balances appeasing the cartoon's massive fan base while keeping the show accessible to those who have never seen an episode in their life. As for Frozen's Jennifer Lee, she has admirable expanded her original screenplay for the stage, but will have to settle for the honor of being nominated (and the huge royalty checks Disney sends her each month).

Will and Should Win: Tina Fey, Mean Girls

Bonus Prediction: After years of handing out Best Book during commercial breaks, the Tony telecast will magically find time to actually show this category and its presumed big name winner on air.

Best Score

The cast of The Band's Visit on Broadway.

Nominees: Adrian Sutton, Angels in America; David Yazbek, The Band's Visit; Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez, Frozen; Jeff Richmond and Nell Benjamin, Mean Girls; Various Artists, SpongeBob SquarePants

A week hours ago this category seemed pretty cut and dry. David Yazbek, previously nominated in this category three times without winning, has written the score to the most critically lauded musical of the season. And his ethereal music for The Band's Visit is easily the most beguiling part of that production, so a Tony Award appeared to be in his immediate future. But then the Outer Critics' Circle awarded Best Score to the 17 recording artists behind SpongBob SquarePants, a show that increasingly looks like it could be a major dark horse contender during this year's awards season.

However, while SpongeBob's win is an interesting wrinkle, it probably won't affect the final outcome. Remember that Yazbek wasn't eligible for this year's OCCs since The Band's Visit premiered Off-Broadway last season and so competed in the 2017 awards (which it and Yazbek both won). I still consider him the front runner, but if there were to be an upset, SpongeBob now seems the most likely suspect. The merely serviceable score of unmemorable songs in Mean Girls poses no real threat. Meanwhile, husband and wife team Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez have beautifully augmented Frozen's score for the stage, but the Disney megamusical has left critics cold and no one can argue the multiple Oscar and Emmy winners *need* another award. And while its wonderful for Adrian Sutton that his Angels in America score was nominated, this is still at heart a musical songwriting category, and I cannot imagine Tony voters going against that with even semi-viable alternatives, which they have.

Will and Should Win: David Yazbek, The Band's Visit


Keep checking this space for more 2018 Tony Award predictions in the weeks ahead! In the meantime, make your voice heard in the comments, and check out the rest of my Tony coverage by clicking below:

Tony Nominations React

Here He Is Boys, Here He Is World

Hello hello hello! As you may have noticed, I've been on a bit of a hiatus lately. This was not a conscious choice, something that just happened as life got busier (I'm engaged now!). Also, if I'm being 100% honest, the current Broadway season hasn't been particularly inspiring to me. It's not that the shows have been bad - some were lovely - but for whatever reason I haven't felt compelled to write about them.

Anyway, for the time being at least, I'm back. I don't promise new posts with anything resembling regularity, and it's highly possible that I fall behind again. But a couple of people have expressed interest in hearing my thoughts on the current Broadway season, which is both encouraging and humbling, and if interest continues then I will do my best to keep things somewhat current.

Since I haven't been posting about this current season, I am obviously behind when it comes to reviews. There's no way I'll have the time to go back and write reviews for productions I saw months ago, so below I've compiled my brief thoughts about the Broadway shows I've seen since my last blog post.

The Play That Goes Wrong

An hysterically funny farce by Henry Lewis, Jonathan Sayer, and Henry Shields, The Play That Goes Wrong has understandably been compared to the pinnacle of the genre, Noises Off. And while it isn't quite as airtight as that masterwork, this tale of the Cornley University Drama Society trying and failing to perform a murder mystery is comedy gold. Anything that can go wrong does, including missed cues, actor injuries, and a set that is literally falling apart at the seams (for which designer Nigel Hook rightly took home a 2017 Tony Award). I saw the show's now departed original cast, who all nailed the specific mix of desperation and naivety which would allow a group of amateur actors to keep going in the face of missed cues, concussions, and multiple mid-show cast replacements. And I have rarely seen slapstick executed with such effortless precision, recalling the screwball comedy of a Three Stooges short. I'm sure the current cast is just as delightful, and I'd highly recommend The Play That Goes Wrong for anyone in search of a laugh.

Once On This Island

Full confession: Once On This Island was the first show I ever performed in, and I would not have my love of theatre if not for that experience, which is a roundabout way of saying I'm a bit biased here. That said, director Michael Arden's stellar revival of Ahrens and Flaherty's very first Broadway musical does not disappoint. It thrillingly embraces everything that makes live theatre magical, presenting a gorgeously realized island fairy tale through the use of found objects and consistently excellent staging. (Arden is given a major assist by set designer Dane Laffrey and lighting designers Jules Fisher and Peggy Eisenhauer.) The performances are uniformly excellent, particularly Hailey Kilgore in her Broadway debut as leading lady Ti Moune, and Alex Newell's roof-raising performance as Asaka that culminates in a showstopping rendition of "Mama Will Provide." And a special shout out to the entire creative team for their willingness to think outside the box when it comes to casting the show's four gods, breaking racial and gender norms to find the absolute best collection of actors for those roles. The best thing I've seen so far this season.

The Band's Visit

The highbrow hit of the fall, I have to admit The Band's Visit left me cold. A slice of life drama following an Egyptian band who winds up stranded in a small Israeli town for one evening due to a scheduling error, I knew ahead of time it would be more of a character study than a plot-driven show and I still couldn't bring myself to care. The performances are all fine, including Katrina Lenk's much heralded performance as the female lead (although I would rate her as solidly "good" rather than "great"). And at 90 intermissionless minutes, it certainly doesn't have the bloat of some Broadway shows. But beyond David Yazbeck's beautifully ethereal score, I think people are mistaking novelty for quality with this one. It's really more of a play with music than a musical, and not a particularly groundbreaking play at that.

SpongeBob SquarePants

The surprise of the season. Despite its very corporate origins, SpongeBob SquarePants is one of the more inventive, whimsical, and just plain fun shows to arrive on Broadway in the past few years. As someone with only a peripheral knowledge of the TV show, I was still thoroughly amused by the denizens of Bikini Bottom and their zany antics. Book writer Kyle Jarrow capitalizes on the cartoon's particular charms, which gleefully insist you take whatever surreal flight of fancy the creators throw at you in stride, be it a megalomaniac plankton married to a literal computer or a Texan squirrel who lives underwater. David Zinn's costume and scenic designs reference the cartoon without literally recreating it, using found objects and simple stylistic choices to create the show's world. And director Tina Landua has coached her first rate cast to delightfully realized, lived in performances that honor their cartoon counterparts without feeling like slavish impersonations. Ethan Slater is perfectly cast as the titular sea sponge, and there are especially delightful scene stealing turns from Gavin Lee as a tap-dancing Squidward J. Tentacles and Wesley Taylor as the diabolical Sheldon Plankton. Mark my words, this will be a "surprise" Best Musical nominee come Tony time.

Frozen

Anna, Elsa, and the denizens of Arendelle have arrived on Broadway in Disney's big budget stage adaptation of their record setting animated smash hit. And while money clearly prompted the show's creation, I'm happy to report it's a fairly solid adaptation. The stage version adds plenty of new material without the disjointed feeling that sometimes plagues Disney musicals, probably due to Broadway's Frozen having the exact same creative team as the movie. The costumes and sets by Christopher Oram are gorgeous, with all of it beautifully lit by Natasha Katz. The performances are uniformly solid, with particularly standout work from Patti Murin as Anna; she manages to be at turns quirky, endearing, earnest, and even genuinely moving, all while singing like a dream and displaying excellent chemistry with her various costars. Cassie Levy nails all of Elsa's big numbers (the self-exiled queen gets several more Wicked-esque solos onstage), although she doesn't pop as much as Murin due to spending a good chunk of the show alone in her ice palace with no one to talk to. I will say Michael Grandage's staging is not particularly inspired, and the show could stand a few more "wow" moments when it comes to the special effects, which occasionally cross the line from "simple" into "cheap looking." But there are far worse ways to spend a night in the theatre, and the core audience of young girls will eat it up.

Mean Girls (DC Tryout)

I have not seen the Broadway production of Mean Girls, but I *did* make my way down to Washington DC for the show's out of town tryout last fall and found it to be sooo fetch. Tina Fey has adapted her now-classic teen comedy for the stage in a way that honors everything you love about the endlessly quotable film while also adding enough new material and modern updates to keep things fresh (the Plastics have cell phones and social media now). Fey's book is laugh out loud funny, both the lines you know  by heart and the abundance of new jokes and references. The high energy cast is a uniform treat, particularly Taylor Louderman, Ashley Park, and Kate Rockwell as the titular mean girls Regina, Gretchen, and Karen (Rockwell deserves a Tony nod for her especially riotous work). Casey Nicholaw has staged the show with his usual sleek production value, and if the songs by Jeff Richmond and Nell Benjamin aren't the most memorable they definitely keep things moving. My biggest criticism out of town was that the show sometimes felt a bit manic, but I had a similar reaction upon first seeing Legally Blonde, a show I now find quite delightful. My current pick for Best Musical of the year.


If you have more specific questions about any of the above, let me know in the comments! And please share this blog with friends or family you think would enjoy it!