2014 Tony Predictions: Best Play and Musical

And then there were two.  The Tony Awards for Best Play and Best Musical are the most coveted of all theatrical awards, because they are the only two that have any proven effect on box office receipts.  I don't believe for one second that the beautifully done but decidedly different Once would still be running if not for its Best Musical win two years ago, and Kinky Boots was just another show until it won the big prize last year and then suddenly became one of the hottest tickets in town.  And while the Best Play recipient doesn't receive as much of a box office boost, winning the Tony definitely increases interest in the play, ensuring a far greater number of regional and amateur productions in the future

 

So which two shows can look forward to a raised profile after Sunday's awards?  Read on to find out!

Best Play

Walter White Bryan Cranston and the cast of All the Way.

 

Nominees: Act One; All the Way; Casa Valentina; Mothers and Sons; Outside Mullingar

The Best Play category definitely caused the most surprise when this year's nominations were announced.  Despite a general consensus that this season was not a particularly strong one for new plays, this was the only category to benefit from the rule change that allowed an increased number of nominees.  It definitely left people (myself included) scratching their heads, especially when arguably stronger fields like Best Musical and Best Revival only produced four nominees apiece.

Since John Patrick Shanley's Outside Mullingar only received one nomination, I can't imagine the long-closed show actually managing a win here.  And although it has its supporters, I think Mothers and Sons is pretty much out of the running as well.  That is as it should be; the play touches upon some emotional issues, but does none of them justice thanks to poor writing, haphazard characterization, and uneven performances.  There is enough support of MTC's Casa Valentina that I would consider it a dark horse candidate, although I think playwright and industry icon Harvey Fierstein has gone back to the drag/crossdressing well one too many times for voters to award him the big prize.  The always genial Fierstein will just have to content himself by counting the royalties from the still-running Newsies and Kinky Boots.

The "race," if you can even call it that, is between Lincoln Center's Act One and political drama All the Way.  The heavy use of quotation marks comes from the fact that pretty much everyone agrees that All the Way is destined to win on Tony night, having won every other Best New Play award of the season.  The long and sometimes meandering Act One does seem to hold a special place in the hearts of older industry folk, but All the Way is the play to beat.

Should Win: I've only seen one of the nominees, so I don't really feel qualified to answer this one
Will Win: All the Way

 

Best Musical

Just as protagonist Monty Navarro steadily slays all the D'Ysquiths between him and his inheritance, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder has steadily taken on every challenger this awards season.

 

Nominees:  After Midnight; Aladdin; Beautiful: The Carole King Musical; A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder

This is another race that was over virtually before it began.  If any show besides A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder wins this award on Sunday, it will be the biggest shock since Avenue Q toppled the mighty Wicked ten years ago. 

That is not to imply that the other nominees aren't worthy.  After Midnight will be penalized by Tony voters for being "just" a revue rather than book musical, but it is a lovingly rendered and highly entertaining revue that features the most talented group of music makers on Broadway (both the singers and the fantastic jazz band).  I personally loved Aladdin, as did many others.  In my opinion it is the most successful Disney stage adaptation yet, at least when it comes to incorporating new material in with the pre-existing songs and plot (the added material in Disney benchmark The Lion King has always felt tacked on to me).  But other people felt that the slick presentation took away from the emotional heart of the piece, and that keeps it from being a real contender for the Best Musical prize.

The only show that poses any sort of threat to Gentleman's Guide is Beautiful, the modest musical about the life of singer/songwriter Carole King which has been steadily winning converts since it premiered in January.  Beautiful has proven to be a reliable box office draw, something that is very important to the out-of-town voters who would prefer to give the Tony to something that will tour well.  But the Broadway theatrical community has gotten pretty sick of jukebox musicals, especially ones that so clearly ape the formula that made Jersey Boys a success.  It would be almost hypocritical for the people who complain so loudly about the lack of originality in musicals to pass over Gentleman's Guide in favor of Beautiful, no matter how much they may like Jessie Mueller as Carole King.  Plus, Gentleman's Guide's modernization of the Gilbert and Sullivan blueprint feels positively refreshing in the current Broadway landscape, reminding everyone just how much fun an old-fashioned musical farce can be.

Will and Should Win: A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder


And that brings me to the end of my Tony predictions for 2014!  We'll find out how right (or wrong) I was on Sunday night, and until then you can review all of my predictions and commentary below.

2014 Tony Nominations React
Best Direction and Choreography
Best Book and Score
Best Featured Actor
Best Featured Actress
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Revival

2014 Tony Predictions: Best Actress

Without a doubt, these next two categories are the most competitive of this year's Tony races.  There are some phenomenal performances being given by some of Broadway's best-loved actresses, and the Best Actress in a Musical race is particularly brutal this year.  I will also admit that I have particularly strong feelings about these two races which may be blinding my objective judgement, so if I get these two wrong you'll know why.  With that said, here are my thoughts on who will (and should) win.

Best Actress in a Play

Audra McDonald is apparently incapable of delivering even an average performance; all of her Broadway outings have been virtually flawless.

 

 

Nominees: Tyne Daly, Mothers and Sons; LaTanya Richardson Jackson, A Raisin in the Sun; Cherry Jones, The Glass Menagerie; Audra McDonald, Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grill; Estelle Parsons, The Velocity of Autumn

I think this Sunday will see Audra McDonald make history by collecting a record-breaking sixth Tony Award for her phenomenal work in Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grill.  If she wins, not only will McDonald have received more acting Tonys than any performer in history, she will also be the first woman to win in all four performance categories.  Anyone who has seen McDonald in Lady Day knows the singing actress is doing an uncanny job of channeling the late Billie Holiday, but Broadway's reigning queen goes far beyond mere impersonation.  She is Holiday reincarnated, with a performance that is free of the artifice and forced mannerisms that often plagues actors tasked with playing real people.  It is an impeccable piece of acting, and definitely a worthy role to propel McDonald into the history books.

The only person with even the slightest chance of unseating McDonald is The Glass Menagerie's Cherry Jones, but it is a long shot to say the least.  Even though this beloved actress gave what some termed the performance of her career, McDonald just has too much of a lead (McDonald has won every guild award she has been eligible for this year).  Tyne Daly, LaTanya Richardson Jackson, and Estelle Parsons will just have to take solace in the fact they even managed to get nominated in such a competitive year.

NOTE: I should probably mention that McDonald is also my all-time favorite Broadway performer (I will go see her in anything), so I fully admit some personal bias has entered into this article.

Will and Should Win: Audra McDonald, Lady Day at Emerson's Bar and Grill

 

Best Actress in a Musical

Performances on the level of Kelli O'Hara's in The Bridges of Madison County are rare.  If she doesn't win, the Tony voters will have lost major credibility points.

 

Nominess: Mary Bridget Davies, A Night with Janis Joplin; Sutton Foster, Violet; Idina Menzel, If/Then; Jessie Mueller, Beautiful: The Carole King Musical; Kelli O'Hara, The Bridges of Madison County

If Kelli O'Hara does not win her long-overdue first Tony Award on Sunday, I am declaring this year's awards null and void.  O'Hara was absolutely sensational in the gone-too-soon Bridges of Madison County, giving a performance that is frankly on an entirely different level from this year's other nominees.  Her brilliance isn't just because of her phenomenal singing, although O'Hara's crystalline soprano has never sounded better than it did singing the breathtaking melodies Jason Robert Brown wrote specifically for her.  Her ability to give a nuanced, deeply felt and believably acted performance while singing the most difficult music of the season was a master class in musical theatre acting and the heights it can reach.  Add in the fact that O'Hara is a perpetual Tonys bridesmaid (this is her 5th nomination in the past 10 years) that is almost universally respected and earns raves even when her shows are critically panned, and it is time Tony voters wised up and gave her the damn award already.

Sutton Foster was perfectly charming in Violet, and gets extra points for stretching herself artistically with a more dramatic role than she typically tackles.  Idina Menzel was even better than expected in If/Then, a performance which is significantly more nuanced and accomplished than her work in Wicked 10 years ago (for which she won).  I have not personally seen Mary Bridget Davies or Jessie Mueller in their respective shows, but I'm sure they are lovely.  However, Kelli O'Hara has earned this, and picking anyone other than O'Hara as the winner would be a grave mistake.

It must be said that Mueller does pose a legitimate threat to O'Hara, as the talented young actress seems to be Broadway's latest It Girl.  Mueller has gone from being an unknown to headlining a major new musical in just 3 short years, but the fact of the matter is Mueller will have plenty more chances to win a Tony or two.  I also cannot fathom what Mueller could be doing in Beautiful (a dull sounding jukebox musical that holds no interest for me) that tops O'Hara's career-best work in Bridges.

There is a possibility Mueller wins the Tony; you might even say there is a strong possibility, since Mueller just took home the Drama Desk Award on Sunday, beating out O'Hara in the process.  But Mueller beating O'Hara would be wrong, and I have to believe Tony voters can see that.  If they mistakenly select Mueller on Sunday night, I firmly believe in 10 year's time the general population will look back and agree that O'Hara was more deserving for what may well become her signature role (similar to how most people now agree Bernadette Peters should have won for Sunday in the Park with George, even though Chita Rivera is an immense talent and no one begrudges her a Tony or two).  With all due respect to Mueller, she can wait another season or two.

Will and Should Win: Kelli O'Hara, The Bridges of Madison County


And that covers all of the acting categories for this year's awards.  Check back tomorrow as I start to tackle this year's production categories, starting with the revivals.  And be sure to check out all of my previous Tonys coverage below!

2014 Tony Nominations React
Best Direction and Choreography
Best Book and Score
Best Featured Actor
Best Featured Actress
Best Actor



What Sould This Year's Tony Nominees Perform?

Remember that time NPH promised us via song and dance that Broadway is "not just for gays anymore?"  He was totally lying, but damn it was entertaining.

My annual predictions for this year's Tony winners are coming soon, so don't you worry your pretty little heads.  But before I dive down that rabbit hole, I thought I'd take a few minutes to write about something a little less serious (but still important): what songs should this year's nominated musicals perform at the big ceremony??? 

After all, the Tony Awards are a national platform where the nominated productions get "free" advertising via their 5-minute performance (rumor has it the shows actually have to cover the physical cost of the performance).  This is often the first and sometimes only exposure a show will get to people who live outside of the tri-state area, so a correctly chosen number can really help drum up interest in the current Broadway production - not to mention any prospective tours.  And as one of the few permanent records of the production, the Tony performance can end up being one of the only ways future generations can have any idea what the show was actually like.

Now, there are a host of considerations that can go into picking this performance, but 9 times out of 10 the answer is simple: go with the production's strongest number.  The one people talk about on their way out of the theatre.  Because the same qualities that make that number a talking point to audience members is going to make potential audience members want to buy tickets to the show.  I personally think it is a bad idea to save the best number for people who actually see the show live.  The Lion King cast performed the show's jaw dropping opening number (an artistic pinnacle the following two-and-a-half hours never quite match) and it certainly hasn't suffered because of it.  Because despite the prevalence of film and television, most people inherently understand that seeing something live is not the same as watching a video, and will gladly pay Broadway prices to be able to say they saw that impressive-looking production from the TV in person.

That said, the numbers get very little setup, so you want to choose something that is still enjoyable without a lot of background knowledge or emotional investment.  This can be a problem for more modern shows that consist mostly of musical scenes rather than traditional songs, as evidenced by Next to Normal's showing at the 2009 Tonys (which struck me as bizarre before having seen the show, but in hindsight is pretty freaking brilliant).  In general, big production numbers read better on TV - especially now that the Tonys are back at the cavernous Radio City Music Hall - and have the added bonus of letting the entire cast perform, which is nice for the performers.  But what if your show doesn't have a number that features everyone, or the big production number excludes the lead actor you really wanted to highlight?  The answer depends on what kind of numbers you have to choose from, although if your production has a name star who's likely to sell tickets you should probably focus on them. 

Now what if the best number of your show is the finale, and you don't want to spoil the ending?  Again, this depends on the show; if it is a plot based production then you should probably opt for something else, but if it's a character-driven comedy I say go ahead and do the finale, because that worked like gangbusters for Hairspray.  And finally, don't commit what I consider the cardinal sin of Tony performances: medleys.  Your 5-minute time slot is short enough without trying to cram several song arcs in there, and it almost inevitably leads to the performance feeling rushed.  Medleys only have a chance of being successful if the songs are exceedingly well know and aren't particularly character based; I would advise against them for everything except jukebox musicals.  For reasons I will never understand Matilda decided to do a medley last year even though those songs aren't known at all (and honestly, the music is one of Matilda's weakest aspects), and it ended up making the show look much weaker than it actually is.

So with those rules in mind, what should this year's nominees perform?  Here are some of my suggestions:

A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder - The strongest and most impressive number in the show is the operatic trio "I've Decided to Marry You," and I'm hoping that's what the producers go with.  The song is an excellent example of the Gilbert and Sullivan-esque charms of the score (melodically pretty with extremely witty lyrics), has a sense of fun, and showcases 3 of the 4 leads in a situation that can be easily set up with a one sentence introduction: Monty has two love interests, and they don't know about each other.  The only reason the producers might go against this is if they really want to showcase Tony-nominee Jefferson Mays (a frontrunner to actually win), in which case I suggest having the others sit this one out and doing "Lady Hyacinth Abroad."  The number is a great showcase for Mays and the show's off-kilter humor, and because it serves as that character's introduction is pretty self-contained.

Aladdin - This show is provoking very mixed reactions among industry folks; some people love it, and some think it fails to live up to Disney's high standards (those people are clearly ignoring Tarzan and The Little Mermaid).  But the one number that everyone agrees is spectacular is "Friend Like Me," and Disney would be wise to put their best foot forward.  There are a lot of props and set pieces involved in that number which would make it difficult to recreate at Radio City, but the effort would be worth it, just like it was worth it for Pippin to bring all that circus equipment last year.  If Aladdin does "Friend Like Me," I fully believe they will keep selling out for the next few years.

Beautiful - I haven't personally seen this show, so it's difficult for me to make a recommendation.  As a jukebox musical it could attempt to get away with a medley, although I think it would be a better idea to just put Jessie Mueller front and center and let her do her thing (especially since Carole King songs tend to be more about the entire composition and not just a catchy chorus).  I'd also pick something more uplifting, because this is at heart a tourist show and tourists have proven repeatedly over the years that they just want to be entertained.  Looking at the song list, "(You Make Me Feel Like) A Natural Woman" would probably be the best choice.

After Midnight - This show would actually benefit from a medley in my opinion, and that's what they should do.  Have Fantasia sing a verse and chorus of one of her solos (maybe "Stormy Weather"), then kick things into high gear with a big production number.  Tap dancing is always impressive on the Tonys, and I would definitely recommend something that allows the band to shine as much as the performers.  But don't go crazy with the number of songs; I'd say pick 2 to 3 and knock them out of the park.

Violet - This show has a problem that is becoming more prominent as shows get better about integrating music and story; none of the songs jump out at you as a stand-alone piece.  There are a lot of loooong musical scenes that would have to be cut down (and likely loose some coherence), and the biggest production number (the gospel anthem "Raise Me Up") doesn't involve any of the Tony-nominated stars.  I think the best choice would be "All to Pieces," featuring the main trio of Sutton Foster, Joshua Henry, and Collin Donnell.  It also has the added bonus of being an uptempo song, which is always an easier sell in these types of situations.

Les Miserables - I am very afraid the Les Miz producers will decide these songs are well known and attempt a medley of power ballads, which would be a disaster.  The performers can barely find the emotional grounding to sell the songs in the context of the show; with only a brief snippet to work with I feel like the songs would just become noise.  The obvious choice is for them to do "One Day More," but as their Good Morning America performance proved that number highlights some of the more questionable casting in the show.  If the producers are smart, they will sit Tony-nominee Ramin Karimloo center stage and let him sing "Bring Him Home," the one number universally singled out by critics as a highlight.  Karimloo has the stage presence and vocal chops to fill even the massive Radio City Music Hall, and it will make the revival frankly look better than it actually is.

Hedwig and the Angry Inch - I would advise the producers to take a page out of the Patti LuPone-led Gypsy playbook and allow star Neil Patrick Harris to monologue a bit before breaking into song.  Hedwig is a freeform piece and it would be nice for Harris to be able to communicate some of that feel before belting out one of the show's rock anthems.  We know Harris has the charisma to command such a large venue, and as a likely winner it will be nice to have some record of what his whole performance encompasses.

There are several other currently running shows that aren't nominated, and five years ago that would have meant they wouldn't perform.  But the past few years the producers of the actual Tony Awards have shown willingness to let unnominated but worthy (or not) productions perform, so who knows?  Given her increased profile thanks to Frozen and the infamous Adele Dazeem incident, it would seem silly not to feature Idina Menzel and If/Then in some capacity, especially since that show has actually been one of the better sellers of this spring.  (But then again, it's clear that Menzel suffers from horrible awards-show nerves, so letting her sing would be a risk.) 

Since it didn't snag a nomination and is closing next weekend, I've given up hope that The Bridges of Madison County will be allowed to perform, but since the producers are (shockingly) mulling over a tour maybe they'll get Kelli O'Hara and Steven Pasquale to blow everyone's mind with the rapturous "One Second and a Million Miles."  I don't see the point in having Alan Cumming perform "Wilkommen" on the show again, but I wouldn't mind it if Cabaret let the divisive but undoubted box-office draw Michelle Williams perform one of Sally's big numbers ("Mein Herr" would work better on the telecast, but the title song would involve less work on the production's part).

That's my thoughts on this year's nominees.  And now, I leave you with what is probably the single greatest Tony performance of all time, Jennifer Holiday in Dreamgirls:




What songs do YOU want to see performed on the Tonys?