2015 Tony Predictions: Best Actor

With the unofficial start of summer this past Monday, we are now less than 2 weeks away from Broadway's biggest night: the Tony Awards! As I do every year, I am doing my best to predict who will come out on top during the June 7th telecast, and since I've already discussed the writing, direction, and the featured performer races, it's time to turn my attention to the leading actor and actress categories. The pinnacle of recognition for any performer, these are inevitably some of the most hotly debated and contested races of any given season.

As always, my predictions are focused on who will win, not who is my personal favorite. If there is a major discrepancy, I will be sure to point it out, as there are all sorts of factors that can influence someone's Tony chances besides the quality of their work. So without further ado, let's dive into the Best Actor races to see who will get to add a shiny new award to their mantel next Sunday.

Best Actor in a Play

Alex Sharp hadn't even officially graduated from the Julliard Drama School when he was cast in The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time, and now he is one of the front runners for Best Actor in a Play.

Nominees: Steven Boyer, Hand to God; Bradley Cooper, The Elephant Man; Ben Miles, Wolf Hall Parts I & II; Bill Nighy, Skylight; Alex Sharp, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

Heading into awards season, this appeared to be the most competitive of all the acting categories, so I'm surprised to see only five nominees here despite plenty of deserving candidates. It's difficult to argue against any of these gentlemen, who all received universally good reviews and a few outright raves. Even Bradley Cooper, who would normally be at a disadvantage as the only nominee not currently performing on Broadway, remains a legitimate contender for the title.

The two names I would be most surprised to hear called on Tony Sunday are Ben Miles and Bill Nighy, but that doesn't mean either can be totally discounted. Miles is the central figure in the much lauded Wolf Hall double bill, but the excitement for that show seems to be focused on the production as a whole rather than any particular member of its sprawling ensemble. And while Nighy has been roundly praised for his work in Skylight, the general feeling towards that revival seems to be an intellectual respect rather than emotional excitement; the play may be a little too highbrow to get much attention in a season with so many electrifying performances. And while the aforementioned Cooper definitely has a shot, I do think the fact that The Elephant Man closed month ago will ultimately keep him from claiming victory.

Which leaves us with Steven Boyer and Alex Sharp, two unknowns giving perhaps the most exciting performances of the season. Boyer's work in Hand to God is mindblowingly good, a masterclass of physicality that allows the psychotic hand puppet Tyrone to emerge as one of the breakout characters of the season. The fact that Boyer manages to balance Tyrone's unfiltered id with host Jason's shy, soft-spoken manner is a jaw-dropping accomplishment that in my opinion is more than Tony worthy. That said, I think voters will go with Sharp's deeply felt portrayal of an autistic teen in The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time, as the recent Julliard grad anchors that dazzling play with a heart and gravitas that keeps the impressive production design from overwhelming the narrative. But I'm still rooting for Boyer, especially if it means the foul-mouthed Tyrone makes an appearance on the Tony telecast.

Will Win: Alex Sharp, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time
Should Win: Steven Boyer, Hand to God

Best Actor in a Musical

Michael Cerveris gives what he describes as his most emotionally draining performance to date in Fun Home, the Pulitzer Prize finalist transfer from the acclaimed Public Theatre.

Nominees: Michael Cervaris, Fun Home; Robert Fairchild, An American in Paris; Brian d'Arcy James, Something Rotten!; Ken Watanabe, The King and I; Tony Yazbeck, On the Town

This category is an exciting mix of established and emerging talent, with over half the nominees competing for their first ever Tony Award; Robert Fairchild and Ken Watanabe even have the added excitement of being nominated for their Broadway debuts. The five nominees are also all currently performing on Broadway, which makes this as close to a fair fight as we're ever going to get when it comes to the Tonys.

As much as I adored Tony Yazbeck's work in On the Town, I just don't think the triple threat can compete with some of the showier performances in this category. Robert Fairchild received a nice set of reviews, with everyone agreeing the NY City Ballet principal is a naturally talented actor/singer in addition to his unrivaled dancing abilities. That said, I'm not sure the Broadway community is quite ready to award a newcomer the industry's highest honor. And while I was highly impressed with Ken Watanabe's utterly charming work in The King and I, enough people had trouble understanding the Japanese-born actor's accent that he faces an uphill battle in order to win this race.

Brian d'Arcy James is such an established talent in the theatrical community that it is easy to forget the golden-voiced character actor has yet to win a Tony Award. James definitely anchors Something Rotten! with a performance that is funny, sincere, and more than accommodating to his scenery chewing costars, making him a major contender for this award. But previous Tony-winner Michael Cerveris completely disappears inside the nebbish, deeply conflicted Bruce Bechdel in Fun Home, and not just because he is nearly unrecognizable in Paul Huntley's 1970's period wig. Cerveris is giving an actor's performance, layered and nuanced and emotionally vulnerable, all the things you think of when you imagine award winning work. Lisa Kron's book and Jeanine Tesori's score also give Cerveris more to play than any of the other nominees, which makes Cerveris the front-runner and likely winner.

Will & Should Win: Michael Cerveris, Fun Home


Check back on Monday for my predictions on what is probably the most closely watched, hotly debated race of the entire season: Best Actress in a Musical. In the meantime, get caught up on all my previous Tony coverage below:

Nominations React
Best Book and Score
Best Direction and Choreography
Best Featured Actor
Best Featured Actress

'S Almost Wonderful

Review: An American in Paris

The cast of An American in Paris.

Adapted from the Oscar-winning film of the same name, the "new" Gershwin musical An American in Paris is perhaps the most dance heavy production to arrive on Broadway in years. Director/choreographer Christopher Wheeldon's gorgeous routines are executed to perfection by some of the finest dancers on the Great White Way, in a piece that often bears more resemblance to a performance at the New York City Ballet than it does to a traditional showtune-laden musical. Watching the supremely gifted cast spin, leap, and twirl about the stage, you can feel both the director and the performers striving to capture some grand universal truth about love and the human condition, which makes Paris' slight and emotionally uninvolving plot all the more disappointing by comparison. When the dancing ceases, so does the show's ability to engage, resulting in a musical that never quite achieves its full potential.

Set in Paris shortly after the end of World War II, the show opens with American soldier Jerry Mulligan purposefully missing his train home, opting instead to build a new life for himself in the City of Lights. He soon meets fellow American soldier (and budding composer) Adam Hochberg and the wealthy aspiring performer Henri Baurel, while also becoming instantly smitten with a mysterious young ballerina named Lise Dassin. What Jerry doesn't know is that Lise is promised to Henri and Adam is also madly in love with her, creating a complicated web of emotional entanglements as the group begins work on a new ballet starring Lise, composed by Adam, and designed by Jerry.

Craig Lucas' book has the veneer of sophistication but ultimately falters in both its plotting and character development. Many of the characters are two-dimensional beings with flimsy or ill-defined motivations, prone to faux profound observations on life and love. Several of them aren't even particularly likable, including protagonist Jerry, a relentless cad who persistently hounds Lise despite her repeated protestations until she finally relents and agrees to spend time with him. (When a female character tries to exact same tactic on Jerry later in the show, he is less than amused.) This trope of the dogged suitor eventually winning over the entirely uninterested girl is something that was both commonplace and acceptable when the film debuted in 1951, but for a musical created in 2015 it feels uncomfortably misogynistic and makes the central couple difficult to root for.

Lucas also has trouble integrating the musical numbers with the books scenes, with most songs seeming to come out of a desire to have more dancing than being justified by the needs of the characters and the plot. At the same time, it's hard to complain about being given more of the show's strongest suit, as Wheeldon's choreography is simply spectacular from beginning to end. Using Gershwin's glorious melodies as a jumping off point, Wheeldon creates the most complex and sophisticated choreography currently on Broadway. The former ballet dancer knows how to compose beautiful stage pictures using nothing more than the performer's bodies, and his intricate formations and sequencing make even the scene changes a glory to behold. Wheeldon also isn't afraid to abandon the singing and dialogue completely to tell a story solely through movement, which is when the show really takes flight. When the dancing ends and the dialogue resumes, you may find yourself thinking that this story would be more effectively told as a traditional ballet.

Making their Broadway debuts, ballet principals Robert Fairchild and Leanne Cope prove to be very capable actor/singers in addition to beautiful dancers, and the show smartly plays to their strengths. Both are innately charming performers that share an easygoing chemistry (even if Fairchild isn't *quite* charming enough to make you overlook or understand Jerry's character flaws), but it is during their many dance sequences that both truly come alive. Fairchild radiates joy and a quiet confidence as he leaps and bounds across the stage, and Cope's beautiful extensions and astoundingly fluid style make it almost impossible to take your eyes off her. Wheeldon's demanding choreography makes ample use of all his lead's many gifts, culminating in the titular "American in Paris" sequence that would be at home on any of the world's great ballet stages.

The supporting performances are generally solid, and become even more impressive when you realize how much material the actors are having to provide in order to make up for the lapses in Lucas' book. Brandon Uranowitz almost makes the lazy choice of having Adam narrate the evening's events in Jersey Boys-style monologues interesting, and Max von Essen is adorably unassuming as the soft spoken Henri. von Essen's big number "Stairway to Paradise" is when Paris bears the most resemblance to a traditional Broadway musical, and he sells it with such panache that you momentarily forget he isn't nearly as accomplished a dancer as most of his costars. Veanne Cox provides some of the evening's most genuine comedy with her dry, droll performance as Henri's mother, even though her character suffers the most from Lucas' underwritten book.

The show's minimalist design is starkly beautiful, with Bob Crowley's costumes and sets perfectly complimented by Natasha Katz's gorgeous lighting design. This is not a literal representation of Paris but a fantastical one, which perfectly compliments the show's stylized tone and many elaborate dance sequences. You may not remember much about the show's plot once it ends, but you will certainly remember the images it presents.

And that, in a nutshell, is the paradox of An American in Paris. While it's happening it makes a huge impression thanks to the strong visuals and charming performances, but as soon at it ends it's difficult to remember what seemed so entrancing about the show in the first place. Christopher Wheeldon has done a sensational job directing and choreographing, and the timeless Gershwin songs remain masterpieces of musical composition. But Craig Lucas' pedestrian book and the somewhat dated premise keep the show from feeling wholly relevant to a contemporary audience, which is a shame given the talent involved. Like the American of its title, this musical is something of a stranger in a strange land that manages to acquit itself rather well in spite of its differences.

2015 Tony Predictions: Best Featured Actress

As the 2015 Tony Awards creep ever closer, my annual predictions have now entered the Big 12 categories. The 8 acting and 4 production awards seem to be the most coveted of all Tonys, particularly from an advertising perspective. They also tend to provoke the most speculation and lead to the closest races of any given season, and this year's crop of nominees is no different. While doing my best to predict who will actually win, I will also be sure to point out if I think there is a more deserving performer in danger of being overlooked. Of course, anything can happen on Tony Sunday (the Featured categories are a hotbed for surprise nominees and winners), but as of right now, here are my best guesses as to who will go home victorious on June 7th.

Warning: Occasional snark and plenty of speculation to follow.

Best Featured Actress in a Play

Lydia Leonard (right) with fellow Tony nominee Ben Miles in the Royal Shakespeare Company's Wolf Hall.

Nominees: Annaleigh Ashford, You Can't Take It With You; Patricia Clarkson, The Elephant Man; Lydia Leonard, Wolf Hall Parts I & II; Sarah Stiles, Hand to God; Julie White, Airline Highway

Just like their male counterparts, this season's Featured Actress in a Play nominees find themselves in a wide open race. As with her costar K. Todd Freeman, I think Julie White will be severely handicapped by the fact that Airline Highway has almost no awards momentum (it failed to make the cut for Best Play); also, as a previous Tony winner White may be held back by voters who prefer to spread the love. Meanwhile, while Sarah Stiles has one knockout scene in Hand to God along with several supporting bits, I expect her to be overlooked in favor of an actress whose role is a little more fleshed out.

Annaleigh Ashford was hysterical in last fall's You Can't Take It With You, and the widely publicized story of how she performed on pointe despite breaking her toe during rehearsals will certainly earn her some brownie points. But Ashford's show opened and closed a long time ago, a major handicap I don't think her well-liked performance can quite overcome. She is still a dark horse candidate, but I think her chances would be greater if the show had lasted until March or April rather than early February.

Patricia Clarkson and Lydia Leonard are in the best position here, as although they are competing in the "Featured" category both are in practice the female leads of their respective shows (a situation that helped The Book of Mormon's Nikki M. James win her Tony Award back in 2011). Clarkson's show has been closed since mid-February, but thanks to the buzz surrounding Bradley Cooper's performance as the titular Elephant Man I expect most voters saw and remembered her performance. But Lydia Leonard is a Shakespearean actress in a critically acclaimed, two part period drama which provides her nearly twice the material as any of her competitors, which is a pretty hard combination to beat. I expect this is ultimately her race to lose.

Will and Should Win: Lydia Leonard, Wolf Hall Parts I & II


 

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

Judy Kuhn (left) and fellow Featured Actress Tony nominee Sydney Lucas in the Broadway transfer of Fun Home.

Nominees: Victoria Clark, Gigi; Judy Kuhn, Fun Home; Sydney Lucas, Fun Home; Ruthie Ann Miles, The King and I; Emily Skeggs, Fun Home

It's lovely Victoria Clark has received her fourth career Tony nomination this year (even if I personally would rather have seen On the Town's Alysha Umphress in this spot). That said, I don't think she has a snowball's chance in hell of actually winning, with the main question in this race being whether or not the three Fun Home actresses cancel one another out and allow Ruthie Ann Miles to complete the ultimate Cinderella story and win a Tony Award for her Broadway debut.

Pitting the Fun Home actresses against one another forces voters to pick a favorite, something that is incredibly difficult and will likely split votes. Judy Kuhn, Emily Skeggs, and young Sydney Lucas all do fantastic work in the chamber musical, each providing some excellent scene work capped off by the score's three best songs (Kuhn's "Days and Days," Skeggs' "Changing My Major," and Lucas' "Ring of Keys"). The incredibly talented Lucas has one of the largest and most important roles in the show, as her scenes with Michael Cerveris form the dramatic crux of the evening and the key to understanding both characters. But Kuhn is practically a theatrical institution, with three previous nominations but no wins to her name, and although her character doesn't say much the actress makes every syllable count. Furthermore, her interpretation of the aforementioned "Days and Days" is some of the most accomplished musical acting currently on Broadway.

In fact, Kuhn is probably the biggest threat to Miles, and I can honestly see the race going either way. Unfortunately the other theatrical awards don't provide much insight into how voters may be leaning, as Kuhn's award-winning work in Fun Home's Off-Broadway production last season made her ineligible this year, clearing the way for Miles to win an Outer Critics Circle Award earlier this month. I personally would favor Miles, as her "Something Wonderful" is every bit as marvelous as Kuhn's big number, with the added bonus that Miles has comparatively more to do and imbues every move her character makes with a multitude of meanings. But if the industry's already established love of Kuhn leads to them honoring the Broadway veteran with her first Tony Award, I couldn't reasonably complain.

Will Win: Judy Kuhn, Fun Home
Should Win: Ruthie Ann Miles, The King and I


And that wraps up my predictions for the Featured performances, which are the categories that usually bring down my batting average on Tony night. Check back on Friday as I begin to tackle the Lead Actor and Actress categories. You can also catch up on all my previous Tony coverage below, and be sure to check back every Monday and Friday from now until the telecast for more updates!

Nominations React
Best Book and Score
Best Direction and Choreography
Best Featured Actor

2015 Tony Predictions: Best Featured Actor

Broadway's biggest night is just over two weeks away, and the entire industry is wondering who will walk away from the 2015 Tony Awards a winner. And since rampant awards speculation is one of my favorite pastimes, I am continuing my survey of the productions and people I think are most likely to win big on June 7th. Now that I've predicted some of the behind the scenes winners, it's time to move on to what I lovingly call the Big 12 categories. The 8 acting and 4 production awards seem to be the ones that carry the most industry clout, as well as provoking the most intense speculation among the theatrical community, and I would argue they are the ones the general public is most interested in when they tune in to the annual Tony telecast.

Of course, who will win and who is most deserving are not always one and the same, which can make any Tony predictions doubly difficult. So should I feel someone besides the most deserving person will be giving an acceptance speech that Sunday, I will make sure to say so in my analysis. Now without further ado, here are my thoughts on two of the most wide open races in this year's awards: the Featured Actor categories.

Warning: Occasional snark and wild speculation to follow.

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Nathaniel Parker as the volatile Henry VIII in British import Wolf Hall.

Nominees: Matthew Beard, Skylight; K. Todd Freeman, Airline Highway; Richard McCabe, The Audience; Alessandro Nivola, The Elephant Man; Nathaniel Parker, Wolf Hall Parts I & II; Micah Stock, It's Only a Play

I'll admit, I was caught completely by surprise when they announced this category's nominees; the only person who was even on my radar was Wolf Hall's Nathaniel Parker. I also find it interesting that of all the acting categories, this was the only one where the votes were close enough to prompt an expansion to six nominees, further indicating what a tight race we have on our hands.

Despite being one of three central figures in the critically acclaimed Elephant Man revival, I think Alessandro Nivola is at a major disadvantage as the only nominee whose show isn't currently running. I also don't have a very good feeling about K. Todd Freeman, as no one seems to be talking about Airline Highway and the show's box office is so paltry that Manhattan Theatre Club has shortened the play's run (a rare move for a non-profit). And since any discussion of The Audience generally begins and ends with how brilliant Helen Mirren is, I don't find Richard McCabe to be particularly competitive in this category.

The three most likely winners are the aforementioned Parker, Skylight's Matthew Beard, and It's Only a Play's Micah Stock. I personally don't see what is Tony worthy about Stock's performance, as the actor's biggest laughs come from the absurd celebrity coats he brings onstage rather than anything the young actor actually says or does. And not to diminish Beard's work, but Skylight is often described as a two-hander between the roundly praised Bill Nighy and Carey Mulligan, which leads me to believe the actor's role is relatively modest and somewhat inconsequential to the plot. Which makes Parker the most likely winner in my eyes, given his larger than life character's importance to Wolf Hall's plot and the fact that Tony voters and the industry in general are clearly enamored with the British double bill.

Will Win: Nathaniel Parker, Wolf Hall Parts I & II
Should Win: Haven't seen enough nominees to know

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Andy Karl flexes his comic muscles in Roundabout Theatre's On the Twentieth Century.

Nominees: Christian Borle, Something Rotten!; Any Karl, On the Twentieth Century; Brad Oscar, Something Rotten!; Brandon Uranowitz, An American in Paris; Max von Essen, An American in Paris

Multiple nominees from the same show in the same category has been a recurring theme in recent years (see: the two Book of Mormon leads, the multiple women from A Raisin in the Sun last year). This always raises the question of if they will split votes, although the phenomenon has produced enough actual winners (Kinky Boots' Billy Porter, Raisin's Sophie Okonedo) that it is obviously not an insurmountable obstacle.

Of the two Something Rotten! nominees, I actually think Brad Oscar has the edge over his Tony-winning costar Christian Borle. Oscar is a hardworking character actor who has been a part of the community for years, headlines Rotten's biggest and best production number, and gets most of the show's best lines ("A show about cats???"). Borle is certainly a beloved performer, reusing many of the same tricks that led to his previous win for Peter and the Starcatcher, but I suspect voters may choose to spread the love this year. Both men from An American in Paris are helped by being in a heavily nominated show - the fact that Paris is tied for the most nominations virtually guarantees every voter will see it - but at the same time the performances aren't necessarily the first thing people mention when discussing the new Gershwin musical.

And then there's Andy Karl, the wildcard who could spoil everyone's fun. Like several of the nominees in this category, Karl is a longtime staple of the Broadway community who is very well liked. After earning critical acclaim and a Tony nomination for playing the title character in the deadly serious Rocky, he has gone to the opposite end of the spectrum with his over the top performance as Kristin Chenoweth's musclebound boy toy in On the Twentieth Century. Karl's comic timing is impeccable and his chemistry with Chenoweth palpable (they are easily the season's funniest pair), and as much as I would love to see Oscar recognized I think this may well be Karl's year.

Will Win: Andy Karl, On the Twentieth Century
Should Win: Probably Karl, but I am partial to Something Rotten's Brad Oscar


Check back every Monday and Friday between now and the Tony telecast to see the rest of my predictions, and don't forget to check out the rest of my awards coverage if you haven't already!

Nominations React
Best Book and Score
Best Director and Choreography

2015 Tony Predictions: Direction and Choreography

The 2015 Tony Awards are less than 3 weeks away, and all of Broadway is buzzing with speculation over who will be victorious come June 7th. Predicting Tony winners just so happens to be one of my favorite pastimes, and so I'm continuing my coverage of this year's ceremony by doing my best to select the people and productions most likely to walk away with that spinning statuette on Tony Sunday. Of course, the people who *will* win are not always the people who *deserve* to win, so I will also make sure to point out when I think the probable winner doesn't match up with the most deserving person/production. I've already discussed the musical writing awards, so now we move on to the people who tell the actors where to go and what to do: the directors and choreographers.

Best Direction of a Play

Tony nominee Alex Sharp (r) and Enid Graham in a scene from The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time.

Nominees: Stephen Daldry, Skylight; Marianne Elliott, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time; Scott Ellis, You Can't Take It With You; Jeremy Herrin, Wolf Hall Parts I & II; Moritz von Stuelpnagel, Hand to God

"It's a honor just to be nominated" sounds horribly cliche, but anyone in this category not named Marianne Elliott should definitely remember such tried and true advice come Broadway's big night. Elliott has helmed the most visually stunning play in several seasons, and much of The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time's dazzle comes specifically from her staging rather than from the equally impressive production design (which is virtually guaranteed to win some Tonys on its own). Not only that, but Elliott somehow managed to keep her bold and daring staging in service of the story rather than letting it overwhelm the narrative, something a lesser director would surely struggle with.

The other productions in this category have been mostly praised for their top-notch acting, something the director definitely helps mold but is ultimately the creation of the performer (no matter how good a director Hand to God's Moritz von Stuelpnagel may be, you can't teach just anyone to do what Steven Boyer does in that show). Unfortunately for Stephen Daldry, Scott Ellis, and Jeremy Herrin, you have a put a pretty distinct directorial stamp on a show to be a true Tony contender, and their strengths this season lie primarily in getting out of the material's way rather than imposing their will upon it. This is Elliott's award to lose.

Will and Should Win: Marianne Elliott, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

Best Direction of a Musical

The Bechdel family, the enigmatic clan at the certain of Off-Broadway transfer (and 2014 Pulitzer Prize finalist) Fun Home.

Nominees: Sam Gold, Fun Home; Casey Nicholaw, Something Rotten!; John Rando, On the Town; Bartlett Sher, The King and I; Christopher Wheeldon, An American in Paris

Now this is a tight race, and one that could conceivably go to any of the five highly deserving nominees. I'm going to go ahead and rule out both Casey Nicholaw and Christopher Wheeldon, as I suspect that should voters want to honor either gentleman they will do so in the Best Choreography category while using this race to recognize someone who is not a double nominee. And while I having nothing but respect for John Rando's refreshing, exuberant work on what many considered a hopelessly dated show, I don't think the On the Town director has a very good shot at winning such a competitive category.

Which leaves Sam Gold and Bartlett Sher, who are so neck and neck that you might as well toss a coin to determine the winner. Both helmed universally acclaimed spring productions that are still fresh in everyone's minds, and both shows owe a large part of their success to their excellent direction. The oft-performed King and I could easily have seemed tired and/or dated, but as Sher did with South Pacific several seasons ago the Tony-winning director has stripped any hint of artifice from the Rodgers and Hammerstein classic and allowed us to see the show afresh. Meanwhile, Gold has done absolutely extraordinary things with Fun Home, reimagining his Off-Broadway staging so completely that you would swear the entire piece was originally conceived and produced in the round. Gold has also guided his small cast to universally excellent performances that stick with you long after the final curtain, with several of his actors up for Tony Awards themselves.

Personally, I would vote for Sher, because ultimately The King and I affected and engaged me in a way Fun Home did not. Despite the many admirable elements of the Off-Broadway transfer, I couldn't connect with the characters on an emotional level even though their lives and concerns more closely mirrored my own experiences than Anna Leonowens' trip to Siam. However, I will fully admit that I seem to be in the minority regarding Fun Home's emotional effectiveness, which I think will ultimately be enough to give Gold the edge.

Will Win: Sam Gold, Fun Home
Should Win: Bartlett Sher, The King and I

Best Choreography

Tony nominees Leanne Cope and Robert Fairchild in one of many pas de deuxs they share in An American in Paris.

Nominees: Joshua Bergasse, On the Town; Christopher Gattelli, The King and I; Scott Graham and Stephen Hoggart, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time; Casey Nicholaw, Something Rotten!; Christopher Wheeldon, An American in Paris

This is where I expect Tony voters will acknowledge all of Christopher Wheeldon's work on An American in Paris, one of the season's biggest surprises. Even disregarding its status as the most nominated musical of the season, by all accounts Paris is an enormous dance show with incredibly demanding choreography that is expertly realized by Wheeldon's top notch dancers. It's refreshing to see a new musical that places such an emphasis on dance, an art form that has been distressingly sparse on Broadway in recent years.

The downside to Wheeldon's likely win is that it doesn't leave room for acknowledgement of Joshua Bergasse's incredible choreography for On the Town. Most producers and directors would have trimmed or even cut at least some of the massive dance numbers when reviving On the Town for modern audiences, but thanks to Bergasse the revival's dancing is its strongest suit. Playful yet precise, Bergasse's dances call to mind the inventive whimsy of multiple Tony-winner Susan Stroman, and hopefully this Broadway newcomer will stick around for many years to come.

Bergasse is also the only legitimate threat to Wheeldon; previous winner Casey Nicholaw's Something Rotten! seems to be suffering from a bit of backlash (it didn't win a single Outer Critic's Circle Award despite having more nominations than any other production), and The King and I just doesn't have enough choreography for Christopher Gattelli to legitimately compete with shows literally overflowing with dance. And giving the Best Choreography Tony to a play in a season which saw such a high volume of traditional dancing is so unlikely that it hardly merits discussion.

Will and Should Win: Christopher Wheeldon, An American in Paris
Who I'd Like to Win Anyway: Joshua Beragsse, On the Town


Keep checking back in the coming weeks for more Tony predictions (updates hopefully every Monday and Friday). In my next post I'll delve into the acting awards, and until then you can read all of my previous Tony predictions below:

Tony Nominee React
Best Book and Score

2015 Tony Predictions: Book and Score

Now that the dust from the nominations announcement has settled and we know exactly who will be competing for this year's Tony Awards, it's time to play the industry's favorite game: Guess the Winners. You can't get more than two theatre people in the same room at this time of year without at least some discussion of who's going to win Broadway's highest honor, and Broadway Etc is here to help cut through the noise and give you one educated theatregoer's best predictions.

The secret to correctly predicting Tony winners is the ability to distinguish between personal feelings of who should win and focus on who has the momentum and buzz to actually win, which are by no means the same thing. I've previously discussed what I consider some of the most egregious Tony oversights, and there's bound to be at least one surprise winner come June 7th, especially with so many deserving nominees in several extremely close races. As always, I will start with predicting the behind the scenes awards like writing and direction before seguing into the more high profile performance categories and eventually the closely watched production races. And should I sense that the likely winner doesn't align with my preferred choice, I will be sure to point that out.

Warning: Occasional snark and plenty of speculation to follow.

Best Book of a Musical

Sydney Lucas, Beth Malone, and Emily Skeggs (all Tony nominees this season) in Fun Home.

Nominees: Craig Lucas, An American in Paris; Lisa Kron, Fun Home; Karey Kirkpatrick and John O'Farrell, Something Rotten!; Terrance McNally, The Visit

The interesting thing about the new musical races is they distinguish between a show's writing and the actual production, whereas the Best Play award doubles as both a production and writing honor. Tony voters have often used this distinction as a way to recognize more artistically daring shows while still naming a crowd pleaser Best Musical (see: Ragtime vs. The Lion King, Urinetown vs. Thoroughly Modern Millie). There has been much debate over whether the critically acclaimed Fun Home can overcome the perceived handicap of its subject matter (weighty issues like homosexuality and suicide) to become a popular hit, which at this point is likely the universally praised show's biggest obstacle on the road to Tony glory.

Which is where the Best Book award comes in, as it is very difficult to argue there is better writing among this year's musicals than Lisa Kron's nuanced take on a young woman coming to terms with her own identity. There are certainly charms to Karey Kirkpatrick and John O'Farrell's work on Something Rotten!, but the show ultimately succumbs to structural issues in the second act that keep it from being a serious awards contender. The surreal musical The Visit has failed to gain much momentum despite the theatrical heavyweights behind it, and while Craig Lucas has an outside chance of winning for his work on the increasingly popular An American in Paris I think voters will ultimately choose to honor Kron. (The fact that Kron's work helped make Fun Home a finalist for the 2014 Pulitzer Prize certainly doesn't hurt her chances).

Will & Should Win: Lisa Kron, Fun Home

Best Original Score

Young Alison experiences a rare moment of bonding with her elusive father in Fun Home, one of the most nominated shows of the season.

Nominees: Jeanine Tesori and Lisa Kron, Fun Home; Sting, The Last Ship; Wayne Kirkpatrick and Karey Kirkpatrick, Something Rotten!; John Kander and Fred Ebb, The Visit

It is a rare artist who reaches Jeanine Tesori's level of industry notoriety without receiving a Tony Award. There is likely a feeling among voters that she is overdue for Broadway's highest honor, and it looks like this may be the year the adventurous, boundary pushing composer finally takes home the big prize. Her expertly written Fun Home score covers an enormous range of emotions and musical styles in the course of the show's single act, without ever feeling disjointed or pieced together. While the universally admired Kander and Ebb have written a very good score for their final collaboration The Visit, it seems unlikely to result in another career Tony Award for the esteemed pair. And while there's no denying the cleverness of the Kirkpatrick brothers' lyrics for the irreverent Something Rotten!, with the exception of the extremely catchy opening number not many of the songs in that score really stick with you past the final curtain. In fact, I'd argue Tesori's biggest competition comes from Grammy-winning Broadway newcomer Sting, whose score for The Last Ship is a similarly nuanced and ethereal piece of composing. But Tesori's score has more breadth, and her show a more important milestone in the development of the musical artform, which means she and lyricist Lisa Kron will likely be the ones making the trip to the podium on Tony Sunday

Will & Should Win: Jeanine Tesori and Lisa Kron, Fun Home


That's all for today, but stay tuned for many more Tony predictions in the weeks to come. Next up, I discuss the nominees for Best Direction and Choreography, and in the meantime you can catch up on my previous coverage of this year's show below.

2015 Tony Nominee React