2016 Tony Award Predictions: Best Play and Musical

This is it. Without question the two most coveted awards in any given Broadway season are the Tonys for Best Play and Best Musical. Why? In addition to the validation they provide, no other awards have such a measurable and immediate effect on a show's financial fortunes and future life. Winning Best Musical a couple years back turned A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder from a struggling show into a bonafide hit, one which has since turned a profit and is currently touring the country. A win in either of the below categories also greatly increases interest in any potential tours and regional productions, which is where a lot of the shows make the majority of their money.

Both races have pretty clear front runners at this point, but I will still use my patented combination of personal opinion and industry buzz to do my best to predict the winners. And since the Tonys are not infallible (in no way is The Music Man a better show than West Side Story, which it beat in the Best Musical race of 1958), if I disagree with the likely winner I will be sure to say so in the comments.

Warning: Occasional snark and plenty of speculation to follow.

Best Play

The ensemble of The Humans, one of the rare Broadway plays to open without a major star to help drive ticket sales.

Nominees: Eclipsed, The Father, The Humans, King Charles III

Fun fact about this year's Tony-nominated playwrights: all are making their Broadway debuts, and all are under 40 years old. Whoever wins will be starting their Broadway career on quite a high, which is certain to make for some extra emotional soundbites throughout the night. 

The general consensus is that Stephen Karam's The Humans will be the big winner here, a sentiment that's difficult to argue against. Karam's work has been acclaimed since his first Off-Broadway play as part of Roundabout Underground, a program specifically designed to groom up and coming playwrights, and although relatively young Karam is already quite respected among the New York theatrical community. The Humans was also a Pulitzer Prize finalist this year, increasing its profile and chances at the big award.

But I wouldn't completely rule out Eclipsed, an expertly crafted show that arrived just as the topic of diversity in entertainment reached a fever pitch. Written, directed, and starring women of color, the harrowing Liberian Civil War drama is a shining example of what can happen when people of different backgrounds are allowed to create theatre. I personally don't think it will manage to overtake The Humans, but it certainly has a better chance than The Father (which has primarily been lauded for Frank Langella's performance) or the long-closed King Charles III.

Will & Should Win: The Humans

Best Musical

Hamilton, a little show no one has heard of, looks poised to become this year's Tony-winning Best Musical

Nominees: Bright Star, Hamilton, School of Rock, Shuffle Along, Waitress

Let's be honest, there's really nothing to discuss here. Hamilton has had this award in the bag since it announced plans for a Broadway transfers last spring. And ignoring all the hype surrounding the cultural juggernaut, I must say the show earns this and every other award it has won by virtue of being one of the smartest, tightest pieces of musical theatre writing of the past 20 years. The show's much discussed rap and hip hop score isn't just good in the context of Broadway; it stands with some of the best of the music industry, as evidence by the huge number of musical celebrities that have seen and enjoyed the production and the cast album's unprecedented rise to the top of the Billboard rap charts. And given the huge amount of material the show has to cover (the complete life of one of our country's Founding Fathers), the narrative's ability to remain crystal clear while still providing endless texture and enough depth to reward repeated viewings is all the more impressive.

I think the biggest question is how the Best Musical nominations (and accompanying telecast performances) affect the other shows in this category. School of Rock and Waitress don't appear to need much help, with both having sold extremely well since opening. Shuffle Along is certainly an ambitious piece of musical theatre, and the fact that it has been selling so well and achieved such critical acclaim makes it appear the history based musical has a long life ahead of it. The show that could use a boost the most is the struggling Bright Star, which has been very forthcoming about the financial investments its high profile writers have made to keep the show afloat through the Tony broadcast. Hopefully a solid musical performance during the ceremony will boost the show's ticket sales enough to keep it open through the summer.

Will & Should Win: Hamilton

And that concludes my predictions for the 2016 Tony Awards! Tonight we'll find out how well or poorly I did, and check back early next week for my thoughts on the results and this Broadway season in general. Until then, feel free to agree or disagree with my predictions in the comments, and check out the links below for the rest of my Tony coverage.

Nominations React

Best Book and Score

Best Direction and Choreography

Best Featured Actor

Best Featured Actress

Best Actor

Best Actress

Best Revival

2016 Tony Award Predictions: Best Featured Actor

The Tony Awards are less than 2 weeks away, and my annual prediction articles have now reached what I like to call the Big 12 categories. The 8 acting and 4 production races always seem to be the most discussed and debated of any Tony season, possibly because these awards have the greatest affect on the business of Broadway going forward. A Best Musical or Best Play winner often ends up with a much longer life on both Broadway and beyond than it might otherwise have had, and performers who are recognized with Tony wins generally (but not always) have access to a greater range of options and opportunities.

Today we'll look at the Featured Actor races, whose eclectic mix of performances often make for some of the hardest to predict races in any given season. As always, I will do my best to determine who is most likely to win, and if that person doesn't match up with who I think is the most deserving I will be sure to point it out in my analysis. Let's get on with the show!

Warning: Occasional snark and plenty of speculation to follow.

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Reed Birney as patriarch Eric Blake in the much praised, Pulitzer Prize finalist The Humans.

Nominees: Reed Birney, The Humans; Bill Camp, The Crucible; David Furr, Noises Off; Richard Goulding, King Charles III; Michael Shannon, Long Day's Journey Into Night

I must admit I'm working primarily off of speculation here, as I haven't seen the majority of nominees in this category. I think Richard Goulding has the biggest set of obstacles to overcome, as he wasn't on many people's radar prior to the nominations being announced and his show has been closed the longest. Being in a closed show also greatly hurts the chances of Noises Off's David Furr, although I think enough Tony voters have strong impressions of that first rate revival to keep Furr in the conversation. Meanwhile, Bill Camp has the advantage of being in a currently running production, and although The Crucible doesn't have the most passionate supporters, producer Scott Rudin has major influence within the industry and has helped long shot nominees score wins in the past.

But Rudin is also behind The Humans, a play industry insiders are much more excited about. It is also a rare Rudin production to not be centered around a Hollywood star or celebrity author, which makes me believe it's a passion project and something he will campaign for heavily. The Humans also marks the latest in a string of critically acclaimed performances for previous nominee Reed Birney, a beloved character actor whose profile continues to rise, making him the most likely winner. But one cannot discount Michael Shannon's extraordinary performance in Roundabout's acclaimed Long Day's Journey Into Night, with the film star creating probably the most nuanced and fascinating performance of that show's four leads. If Birney loses (unlikely, but possible), I expect it to be to Shannon.

Will & Should Win: Reed Birney, The Humans

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Daveed Diggs (left) and Lin-Manuel Miranda in Hamilton.

Nominees: Daveed Diggs, Hamilton; Brandon Victor Dixon, Shuffle Along; Christopher Fitzgerald, Waitress; Jonathan Groff, Hamilton; Christopher Jackson, Hamilton

Simple math proves this category is likely to go to someone from Hamilton, as three out of the five nominees come from that hip-hop musical juggernaut. Even with the possibility of vote splitting, Daveed Diggs, Jonathan Groff, and Christopher Jackson have such a head start in this race I can't imagine Brandon Victor Dixon or Christopher Fitzgerald snatching the award from them. I personally don't quite understand what about Dixon's performance in Shuffle Along was deemed nomination-worthy over his costars (was it just his character's proximity to Audra McDonald, the show's clear star?), and think he is the least likely winner. And while I sincerely hope hardworking, consistently hilarious three-time nominee Fitzgerald wins a Tony Award at some point in his career, it just doesn't feel like this is his year.

Jonathan Groff was certainly memorable in his short but sweet turn as King George in Hamilton, and many other performers have won featured Tonys for similarly small amounts of stage time. But compared to Daveed Diggs and Christopher Jackson, who both have huge roles that almost rival the show's leads in terms of stage time and complexity, it's very hard to argue that Groff is the most deserving winner. And while I certainly enjoyed Jackson's take on George Washington, Daveed Diggs' dual roles as Marquis de Lafayette and Thomas Jefferson have screamed Tony Award since the show first premiered Off-Broadway last year. Diggs nails every second of his performance, a dynamic tour de force that you can't take your eyes off of. He is the clear frontrunner here, and I will be shocked if he doesn't win on June 12th.

Will & Should Win: Daveed Diggs, Hamilton

In our next installment it's the featured actresses' turn to shine, but until then you can catch up on the rest of my 2016 Tony coverage by clicking the links below. And don't forget to share your thoughts in the comments!

2016 Tony Nominations React

Best Book and Score

Best Direction and Choreography

2016 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part I (Production)

And just like that, Tony season is almost upon us! It's hard to believe that in just a few short days, Patina Miller and Andrew Rannells will wake up at an ungodly hour and announce the names of those competing for Broadway's highest honor. And just like every year, I plan on predicting, discussing, and dissecting every minute of what has evolved into one of the most exciting theatre seasons in years.

The number of positively reviewed productions this year is quite astounding. Very few shows have been outright panned by the critics, making a lot of this year's Tony races unpredictable in the most exciting way possible. Even with Hamilton looking to dominate the new musical awards, there's still plenty of worthwhile competition for the other Best Musical slots, not to mention the acting and play categories. All of this makes predicting the nominees a challenge, but that's never stopped me before!

As always, I will do my best to predict the nominees in the Big 12 Tony categories (my term for the 4 production and 8 acting awards). Thanks to the updated Tony rules, all of these categories have a variable number of slots available, which makes things extra tricky. Given past history, I will assume the Tony committee will err towards a smaller number of nominations, but I will always pick a Wildcard nominee that I think will either force a category expansion or replace one of my official picks.

We'll find out who actually gets nominated on May 3rd, but in the meantime here are my best guesses as to which productions will find themselves competing for Best Musical, Play, and Revival.

UPDATED: Shuffle Along has officially been ruled a new musical, so I have updated my predictions accordingly.

Best Musical

Lin-Manuel Miranda in a little show no one's ever heard of called Hamilton.

Hamilton's place in this category is assured; pretending otherwise is ludicrous, especially after its recent Pulitzer Prize win. The real question is what other shows will make the cut, with some varied and exciting options presenting themselves.

Both On Your Feet and School of Rock managed to snag surprisingly encouraging reviews when they opened this fall, and either production could well be among next week's Best Musical nominees. I personally feel School of Rock is the more respected of the two shows, and a welcome return to form for theatrical titan Andrew Lloyd Webber, but On Your Feet's Outer Critic's Circle nomination (and School of Rock's absence) leave both shows neck and neck.

As for the spring shows, Waitress and American Psycho are the top two contenders, and I expect both to be among this year's nominees. Waitress is virtually assured a slot, thanks to its almost universally positive notices. I also can't see the Tony committee failing to nominate the first Broadway musical with an entirely female creative team in a season where diversity both on and off stage has been such a hot button topic. American Psycho was a more divisive show, but those who enjoyed it seemed to really enjoy it, and thanks to the Tony's weighted nomination system being a few people's top choice counts for more than being many people's third or fourth choice.

And then there's Shuffle Along. The producers of this star-studded musical are pushing to have it compete in the Revival category, presumably to avoid direct competition with Hamilton. This seems like a dubious argument to me, as director George C. Wolfe has written an entirely new libretto that turns the show into a backstage musical about the genesis of its 1921 namesake. In the past, heavily rewritten revivals have at least kept the same plot and characters as the originals, so I expect the nominations committee to deem these changes enough to make Shuffle Along a new musical, putting it in contention for Best Musical. (This is exactly what happened.)

Nominees: American Psycho, Hamilton, Shuffle Along, Waitress
Wildcard: School of Rock

Best Play

The Broadway cast of Stephen Karam's The Humans.

Quite honestly, this is a much less interesting and competitive category than Best Musical. Given the strength of its reviews and the fact that it was named a finalist for the 2016 Pulitzer Prize, I think The Humans is the frontrunner not just for the nomination but for the win. I will also be very surprised if Danai Gurira's much praised Eclipsed fails to score a Best Play nomination. And although the show has been closed for several months at this point, King Charles III made such a strong impression on critics this past fall it seems all-but-guaranteed a nomination.

Which leaves the fourth nomination slot up for grabs, with several viable options available. The Father recently scored Drama League and Outer Critics' nominations for Best Play, and seems to be the most likely contender. That said, Roundabout Theatre Company's adaptation of Therese Raquin had enough supporters that it cannot be ruled out of the competition, and the well reviewed An Act of God is technically part of this season despite opening last May. The fact that it is about to begin a return engagement starring Sean Hayes will remind people that it exists, giving the satiric play a chance at a wildcard spot in this year's race.

Nominees: Eclipsed, The Father, The Humans, King Charles III
Wildcard: Therese Raquin

Best Musical Revival

Two time Tony-nominee Gavin Creel and Tony-winner Jane Krakowski in Roundabout's sterling She Loves Me revival.

Let me preface this by saying that it has been an absolutely *stellar* year for musical revivals. As far as I'm concerned, every production eligible in this category is worthy of at least a Tony nomination, and I'm not sure I've ever felt that way about any category before. Unfortunately, not every show can be nominated, which means at least one deserving production will be overlooked when the Tony committee announces their 3-4 nominees.

Let's start with sure things. John Doyle's minimalist staging of The Color Purple won across the board raves, and in the eyes of many critics redeemed the show from its less well-received premiere (which I personally loved). It is a shoe-in for a nomination, and at this point is probably the frontrunner to win. She Loves Me is also a practically perfect production of a less well-known musical, and I will be shocked/furious if Roundabout's effortlessly charming revival does not receive at least a nomination.

After those two shows, things get tricky. History has shown time and again that currently running productions do better with the Tony committee, which makes a Fiddler on the Roof nomination highly likely. Yet I would say that after the above-named sure things, the most artistically successful and interesting musical revival this season was the Deaf West production of Spring Awakening. Should this category have the traditional four nominees, then those are your two final slots. Should only three shows get nominated, then I honestly don't know which one the Tony voters will favor, and it will result in some justified cries of "snub" either way. Poor Dames at Sea, while highly enjoyable, seems destined to be forgotten.

Nominees: The Color Purple, Fiddler on the Roof, She Loves Me, Spring Awakening
Wildcard: Dames at Sea

Best Play Revival

Saoirse Ronan and the cast of Ivo van Hove's avant garde The Crucible.

This category is particularly stuffed this year, with a whopping 11 eligible productions competing for the 4-5 available slots. Roundabout's first-rate revival of the hilarious Noises Off looks like a sure thing when it comes to getting a nomination, and although their Long Day's Journey Into Night isn't the top tier production I'd hope for, a decent Long Day's Journey is still better than most other play revivals, making it a strong contender. I suspect that avant garde director Ivo van Hove's two rapturously received Arthur Miller revivals (last fall's A View from the Bridge and the currently running The Crucible) will both get nominated, although there is a *slight* possibility that Tony voters only nominate one in favor of spreading the wealth around.

Unlike most categories, I feel like there is a strong possibility of this race expanding beyond the minimum four nominees. Picking which production gets the fifth slot is tricky however, as most of the other play revivals this season have been liked but not loved. Blackbird's difficult subject matter seemed to be off-putting to a large number of critics, even as they all admitted the show was staged and acted wonderfully. Fool for Love was very well liked when it opened last fall, but given the sheer volume of play revivals this season it will likely be overlooked. And I don't think the community's love of James Earl Jones and Cecily Tyson is quite enough to get The Gin Game nominated, as most reviewers agreed the play had not aged well despite the quality of the performances in it. Blackbird remains my official pick, but its slot could really go to anyone (or disappear all together).

Nominees: Blackbird, The Crucible, Long Day's Journey Into Night, Noises Off, A View from the Bridge
Wildcard: Fool for Love


Agree? Disagree? Let me know in the comments, and be sure to check back in a couple of days to see my Best Actor/Actress predictions!