2016 Tony Award Predictions: Best Featured Actor

The Tony Awards are less than 2 weeks away, and my annual prediction articles have now reached what I like to call the Big 12 categories. The 8 acting and 4 production races always seem to be the most discussed and debated of any Tony season, possibly because these awards have the greatest affect on the business of Broadway going forward. A Best Musical or Best Play winner often ends up with a much longer life on both Broadway and beyond than it might otherwise have had, and performers who are recognized with Tony wins generally (but not always) have access to a greater range of options and opportunities.

Today we'll look at the Featured Actor races, whose eclectic mix of performances often make for some of the hardest to predict races in any given season. As always, I will do my best to determine who is most likely to win, and if that person doesn't match up with who I think is the most deserving I will be sure to point it out in my analysis. Let's get on with the show!

Warning: Occasional snark and plenty of speculation to follow.

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Reed Birney as patriarch Eric Blake in the much praised, Pulitzer Prize finalist The Humans.

Nominees: Reed Birney, The Humans; Bill Camp, The Crucible; David Furr, Noises Off; Richard Goulding, King Charles III; Michael Shannon, Long Day's Journey Into Night

I must admit I'm working primarily off of speculation here, as I haven't seen the majority of nominees in this category. I think Richard Goulding has the biggest set of obstacles to overcome, as he wasn't on many people's radar prior to the nominations being announced and his show has been closed the longest. Being in a closed show also greatly hurts the chances of Noises Off's David Furr, although I think enough Tony voters have strong impressions of that first rate revival to keep Furr in the conversation. Meanwhile, Bill Camp has the advantage of being in a currently running production, and although The Crucible doesn't have the most passionate supporters, producer Scott Rudin has major influence within the industry and has helped long shot nominees score wins in the past.

But Rudin is also behind The Humans, a play industry insiders are much more excited about. It is also a rare Rudin production to not be centered around a Hollywood star or celebrity author, which makes me believe it's a passion project and something he will campaign for heavily. The Humans also marks the latest in a string of critically acclaimed performances for previous nominee Reed Birney, a beloved character actor whose profile continues to rise, making him the most likely winner. But one cannot discount Michael Shannon's extraordinary performance in Roundabout's acclaimed Long Day's Journey Into Night, with the film star creating probably the most nuanced and fascinating performance of that show's four leads. If Birney loses (unlikely, but possible), I expect it to be to Shannon.

Will & Should Win: Reed Birney, The Humans

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Daveed Diggs (left) and Lin-Manuel Miranda in Hamilton.

Nominees: Daveed Diggs, Hamilton; Brandon Victor Dixon, Shuffle Along; Christopher Fitzgerald, Waitress; Jonathan Groff, Hamilton; Christopher Jackson, Hamilton

Simple math proves this category is likely to go to someone from Hamilton, as three out of the five nominees come from that hip-hop musical juggernaut. Even with the possibility of vote splitting, Daveed Diggs, Jonathan Groff, and Christopher Jackson have such a head start in this race I can't imagine Brandon Victor Dixon or Christopher Fitzgerald snatching the award from them. I personally don't quite understand what about Dixon's performance in Shuffle Along was deemed nomination-worthy over his costars (was it just his character's proximity to Audra McDonald, the show's clear star?), and think he is the least likely winner. And while I sincerely hope hardworking, consistently hilarious three-time nominee Fitzgerald wins a Tony Award at some point in his career, it just doesn't feel like this is his year.

Jonathan Groff was certainly memorable in his short but sweet turn as King George in Hamilton, and many other performers have won featured Tonys for similarly small amounts of stage time. But compared to Daveed Diggs and Christopher Jackson, who both have huge roles that almost rival the show's leads in terms of stage time and complexity, it's very hard to argue that Groff is the most deserving winner. And while I certainly enjoyed Jackson's take on George Washington, Daveed Diggs' dual roles as Marquis de Lafayette and Thomas Jefferson have screamed Tony Award since the show first premiered Off-Broadway last year. Diggs nails every second of his performance, a dynamic tour de force that you can't take your eyes off of. He is the clear frontrunner here, and I will be shocked if he doesn't win on June 12th.

Will & Should Win: Daveed Diggs, Hamilton

In our next installment it's the featured actresses' turn to shine, but until then you can catch up on the rest of my 2016 Tony coverage by clicking the links below. And don't forget to share your thoughts in the comments!

2016 Tony Nominations React

Best Book and Score

Best Direction and Choreography

An Admirable "Journey," If Not a Great One

Review: Long Day's Journey Into Night

John Gallagher, Jr. and Jessica Lange in the latest Broadway revival of Long Day's Journey Into Night.

There's always been something off about the Tyrones, the highly dysfunctional family unit at the center of Eugene O'Neill's Pulitzer Prize-winning masterpiece Long Day's Journey Into Night. Slowly learning the many ways in which the Tyrone family isn't what it seems is one of the drama's chief pleasures, with each new revelation forcing you to reconsider your feelings about the four deeply damaged characters onstage. But in the Roundabout Theatre Company's current revival of this American classic, something is even more off than usual, and it holds this fine production back from the transcendent heights it so desperately wants to achieve.

The cast of stage and screen veterans assembled here certainly dives into their meaty roles with abandon, with each cast member offering a perfectly valid and often fascinating take on their member of the Tyrone clan. Yet these performances don't quite stylistically mesh with one another, so at times it feels like four separate productions occurring simultaneously rather than one seamless whole. Whether this is a fault in casting or direction is up for debate, but it is a noticeable issue which distracts from the impressive acting of the cast.

As the family patriarch James, Gabriel Byrne is wonderfully understated, convincingly reserved and world weary from a life full of regret and emotional turmoil. Byrne does an excellent job of using the character's Irish bluster to hide his true insecurities, and his deeply expressive eyes make it clear that every insult and accusation hurled his way stings even though James rarely vocalizes his hurt. His is an all-too-real remorse that is quietly devastating, anchoring the showier performances around him with genuine human gravitas.

Jessica Lange is often captivating as the alternatively fragile and ferocious matriarch Mary, and is particularly effective in the scenes where the character rapidly shifts from one emotional extreme to another. Lange makes the character's repeated utterance of "I don't know what you're talking about" everything from the heartbreaking possible onset of senility to a bone chilling challenge to anyone who dares question her sincerity. You're never quite sure how conscious her denial of the problems in her life is, and it makes for a fascinating character study. Yet for all she does right, Lange sometimes feels out of place; you get the feeling her Mary would work even better in a production where the other actors matched her particular style of emotionally volatile acting, rather than the more measured and stately performances favored by her current costars.

As the Tyrones' two sons, both Michael Shannon and John Gallagher, Jr. are exceptional. As the elder son, Shannon is mesmerizing, expertly forging all of the character's conflicting impulses into one multifaceted gem of a performance. Shannon's Jimmy is the most self-aware of the bunch, but also the most vindictive, purposefully agitating the rest of the family by continually bringing up their hurtful past. There's a twinkle of joy in Shannon's eyes when he gets a rise out of one of the other characters, and yet his repeated apologies are heartfelt and his own self-loathing always readily apparent. As the younger son Edmund, Gallagher, Jr. nails the character's contradictory desire to be treated as a man and need for the extra attention granted him by virtue of being the family baby. He also makes for the most interesting foil to Lange, the only one who seems to really see her even as she continually lies to herself about his ongoing medical problems.

Director Jonathan Kent makes a few choices that actively undermine his cast, including staging the play so that an unnecessarily large amount of dialogue is delivered upstage. It robs the audience of the chance to see the actors' expressive faces, and occurs enough that it becomes difficult to fully empathize with them (Lange in particular spends a lot of time speaking upstage). Also, while no one has ever accused Long Day's Journey Into Night of being a short play, Kent's decision to provide only one intermission during the play's four hour runtime turns it into an endurance test for even the most devout O'Neill fans. The last of the four acts suffers the most from this decision, with several brilliantly subtle bits of acting competing against the increasing restlessness of the audience, and the heartbreak of Lange's final monologue undercut by the relief of finally getting a break.

Overall, this Journey is admirably executed but rarely excites, making it difficult to recommend but also hard to completely dismiss. O'Neill's play is a masterwork of rare skill, infinitely complex despite its relatively straightforward setup, and something that reveals new facets of meaning on every viewing. It is something that should be experienced by every theatre lover at some point in their lives, but it would be a shame if those unfamiliar with the work mistook the flaws in this production as flaws with the play in general. Audience enjoyment will be directly tied to how interested you are in seeing these specific actors tackle these specific roles, but those who have seen multiple productions of the play probably won't find much to distinguish this revival from the rest.