Insanely Early 2014 Tony Predictions: Part II

As New York suffers through another cold snap, Broadway is in that odd no man's land between the high-minded fall openings and the more broadly appealing spring fare.  Since very few shows open during the months of January and February, now seems as good a time as any to look back on the season so far and begin one of my favorite games: handicapping the Tony Awards!!!  In my last post, I discussed which fall shows I thought had a shot at nominations in the production categories; now it's time to give the same treatment to the leading actor and actress races.  As with my previous predictions, only those who have made a major impression on critics and audiences can be considered contenders at this point.  Tony voters have notoriously short memories, and a flashy spring performance has a good chance of supplanting all but the most well-loved fall turns.

WARNING:  Occasional snark and lots of speculation to follow.

Best Actor in a Musical

Will two-time Tony-winner Norbert Leo Butz become a three-time Tony-winner for his work in Big Fish?  I don't know, but I'd put money on at least a nomination.

Despite the critical indifference to his chosen vehicle, I think Big Fish's Norbert Leo Butz is about as close to a sure thing in this category as it gets.  The two-time Tony-winner gave a tour de force performance as Edward Bloom and was universally praised for it.  Interestingly enough, it appears the Tony administration committee has ruled that both Jefferson Mays and Bryce Pinkham are Featured Actors rather than leads (the roles are of equal size, but in the recent past that has resulted in both actors being considered leads a la Kinky Boots or The Book of Mormon).  Otherwise I'd be positive one if not both of them would be nominated, since as far as I'm concerned they've both earned it.  I'd like to say there was a chance for Soul Doctor's Eric Anderson to be nominated, as he dedicated years of his life to workshopping and performing that show, but let's face it: there's no way in hell Soul Doctor gets nominated for anything.

Best Actor in a Play

His Glass Menagerie character may be a petulant, unfulfilled whiner, but Zachary Quinto will likely have plenty to celebrate when the Tony nominations are announced.

The fact the Tony voters have chosen to count this fall's repertory plays as four separate productions makes this category a major wild card.  I think it's more a question of what certain performers will be nominated for rather than if they will be nominated.  The category's surest bet is Zachary Quinto, who's work in The Glass Menagerie scored the kind of reviews most actors only dream about for their Broadway debuts.  And the person with the best chance of a double nomination is two-time Tony-winner Mark Rylance, who could find himself among the Best Actor nominees for Richard III (he's considered featured for his much-buzzed about Olivia in Twelfth Night).

I can't decide if Patrick Stewart and Ian McKellan will find themselves nominated against each other, if only one for the venerated thespians will make the cut, or if the pair of them (and their double eligibility for Waiting for Godot and No Man's Land) will split votes enough that both get shut out.  It all depends on the strength of this spring's offerings; I imagine there's already a spot reserved for Denzel Washington, unless he totally ruins A Raison in the Sun.  Previous winner Roger Rees got excellent reviews for his work in The Winslow Boy, but I think the play will be too long closed to have any real traction with the nominations committee.  I'm also not ready to rule out the possibility of the incredibly solid Samuel Barnett scoring a surprise nod for his sterling Viola in Twelfth Night, or that Daniel Craig's sheer star wattage and box office drawing power nets him a nomination for Betrayal (though for the record, I think the former is far more likely than the latter).

Best Actress in a Musical

Hopefully Jessie Mueller will get to wear something a little more glamorous come Tony night.

The list of actresses headlining musicals this spring is a veritable who's who of musical theatre royalty (Sutton Foster, Idina Menzel, Kelli O'Hara, Marin Mazzie).  This and the Best Actor in a Play category are easily going to be the most competitive races of the season.  That said, I think fast-rising star Jessie Mueller stands as good a chance as anyone of breaking into this highly competitive race for her universally praised performance as Carole King in Beautiful.  Regardless of what they thought of the material, every reviewer sang Mueller's praises, with many citing her as the production's biggest draw.  And should one of the afore-mentioned ladies really blow it (unlikely, but possible) AND Oscar-nominee Michelle Williams either be ruled ineligible or just plain bad in Cabaret, there's a slight chance Mary Bridget Davies sneaks into this category for her dead on Janis Joplin in the concert musical bearing the departed singer's name.

Best Actress in a Play

I have no Doubt Cherry Jones will find herself among this year's Best Actress nominees for The Glass Menagerie (You see what I did there?)

It's awfully early to be predicting actual Tony winners, but I would say this award is currently Cherry Jones' to lose.  I personally hated what director John Tiffany did to The Glass Menagerie, but even I will admit that Jones makes a strong Amanda (and would have been an excellent one under better direction).  Given how over the moon critics are about the production, she is a sure thing for a nomination.  Other than Jones, the relatively small number of women in plays this fall increases Rebecca Hall's chances of being recognized for her work in Roundabout's widely-praised Machinal.  There aren't a ton of female-heavy plays on the schedule for the spring, but there are probably enough leading actresses (including theatre favorites Tyne Daly and Estelle Parsons) to keep Debra Messing's liked but not loved performance in Outside Mullingar from being nominated.


That's my take on the leading actor/actress races.  Keep an eye out for my thoughts on the supporting categories (always tricky to predict due to the sheer volume of eligible performances) in the coming week.

Insanely Early 2014 Tony Predictions: Part I

It's never too early to start discussing Tony Award contenders (at least, not for me).  And since we're in the middle of the winter no man's land between the fall and spring Broadway offerings, now is as good a time as any to look back on the first half of this season on the Great White Way.  Obviously we have a lot of shows left to open, so at this point only those who have made a major impression on the theatre-going community can be considered true Tony contenders.  As I do at the end of each theatre season, I'm going to go through all of the major Tony categories and note which productions and people I think have a real shot at recognition come nomination time. 

WARNING:  Occasional snark and a great deal of speculation to follow.

Best Musical

Smartly written and expertly cast, A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder is easily the best of the fall's new musical offerings.

There were actually (surprisingly) a fair number of productions eligible for the Best Musical category over the past six months.  Unfortunately, there are also a lot more new musicals on the horizon, and this fall's shows (especially the ones that have closed) stand a good chance of being overshadowed/forgotten come Tony time.  If I were to pick the show with the highest chance of securing a Best Musical nomination, I would go with A Gentleman's Guide to Love and Murder, which in addition to being hilarious is one of the smarter book musicals to come around in a long time.  If a second fall show sneaks into this category then the well-reviewed After Midnight has a shot, although it's status as a revue rather than a book show hurts its chances with the sometimes snobby Tony voters.

I personally enjoyed Big Fish, but it was a divisive show and that decreases its chances immensely, especially in the face of the formidable-looking spring line-up.  There's also the off chance that Baby Boomer baiting Beautiful scores a surprise nomination, but despite its rosy box office prospects I think it will ultimately be passed over by the more discerning voters.  A Night with Janis Joplin and First Date are ultimately slight entertainments unlikely to gain any serious awards traction, and if Soul Doctor gets mentioned at all on the Tony telecast it will likely be as the butt of somebody's joke.  I mean, does anyone even remember Soul Doctor happened?  And what is it going to take to get a show that lasts more than a few months into the Circle in the Square?

Best Play

As of right now, this is the weakest this category has been in years.  Most of the plays from the fall were star-driven revivals, with only A Time to Kill and The Snow Geese even eligible for this award.  Both were met with critical and audience indifference, and there are enough interesting-sounding plays scheduled for spring that I suspect both will be shut out of the Tonys.  *If* (and that's a very big "if") one of these plays were to be nominated, it would probably be Sharr White's WWI drama The Snow Geese, but I find that highly unlikely.

Best Musical Revival

In something I consider a celebration, there were no musical revivals on Broadway this fall.  Every tuner that premiered was a new show, so currently this is a wide open race.  There are also only 4 revivals scheduled for the spring, and that's assuming Roundabout's remounting of their Tony-winning Cabaret is even deemed eligible for competition (which I suspect it won't be).  So basically, everyone gets nominated!

Best Play Revival

Did anyone think that a 400-year-old Shakespeare comedy would be one of the critical and commercial smashes of the fall season?  But Mark Rylance and the all-male company have made Twelfth Night must-see, hysterical theatre.

Thanks to the repertory productions that took Broadway by storm, there are already plenty of play revivals eligible for this year's Tonys.  The double bill of Twelfth Night and Richard III in particular has been a box office and critical sensation, and I would be shocked if Twelfth Night wasn't nominated (in fact, at this moment I think it's the likely winner).  And while I personally hated it, most critics and audience members have been over the moon about this latest production of The Glass Menagerie, so I'm going to name it the second sure thing in this category.  I also wouldn't be surprised to see one of the Patrick Steward/Ian McKellan shows nominated (probably Waiting for Godot), although their slot is the most endangered should the spring revivals prove particularly strong and/or popular.  Despite fantastic reviews, the Roundabout's revivals of The Winslow Boy and Machinal lack the star power to be serious contenders, and the producers of the Daniel Craig-led Betrayal will likely have to content themselves with the millions of dollars they made from that sold out but not necessarily well-reviewed production.  Betrayal always had the air of being an event that was separate from rather than a part of the Broadway season, and the competition is simply too strong for even the mighty James Bond to conquer.


That's my take on the production races and where they stand so far.  There of course is always the chance for surprises, but history has taught us that shows which fail to make a major impression in the fall don't stand much chance at Tony love once the spring shows open (especially if the fall shows have shuttered before nominations are announced).  I am also making some of these predictions based on the assumed strength of the spring's offerings, so if that becomes a surprise in either direction (really strong or really weak overall), then things will change as well.

Check back soon for my thoughts on how the acting races are shaping up so far.

Most Anticipated of Spring 2014

Idina Menzel and the cast of If/Then.  You just *know* she's belting her face off.

Now that we are officially in 2014, it is time to start looking forward rather than back (which I did in my two Best Of 2013 posts as well as my Worst Of list).  There are 20 new productions opening on Broadway this coming spring, and somewhat surprisingly they are evenly divided between plays and musicals.  Any new Broadway show is cause for celebration, but naturally there are some shows that I'm looking forward to more than others.  So here, in no particular order, are the productions I'm most excited to see in the coming months.

Aladdin

Full disclosure:  Aladdin has always been my favorite Disney film.  I have been hoping for a stage adaptation for the last 10 years, and I will finally get my wish when the show arrives on Broadway in March.  I'm not sure exactly how they'll translate the film's magic to the stage (the Genie's mile-a-minute dialogue and transformations seem like a particular challenge), but 16 years ago no one thought they could make The Lion King work and that show has gone on to gross $1 billion on Broadway alone.  I have full faith in the technical prowess Disney's money can buy, and I also have supreme confidence in the musical comedy chops of director Casey Nicholaw, whose work on The Book of Mormon remains the greatest example of sustained hilarity in the new millennium.  Final bit of disclosure: I bought my orchestra tickets to this show last month. :-D

The Bridges of Madison County

I have zero knowledge or particular interest in either The Bridges of Madison County novel or the film version starring Meryl Streep and Clint Eastwood.  But I do have extensive knowledge and admiration for the musical career of composer Jason Robert Brown, who is scoring the musical adaptation set to begin previews on Broadway in a couple of weeks.  Brown is one of the smartest pop-influenced composers working in the theatre, and I have no doubt his score will be a marvel to behold.  The fact that he has enlisted Kelli O'Hara to take on the lead female role makes the entire enterprise even more exciting, as she is one of the most gifted singing actresses of her generation.  Add in the fact that Tony-winner Barlett Sher is at the helm and has described the score as the best one he's ever worked with (remember the Sher introduced the world to Adam Guettel's rapturous Light in the Piazza) and you have the makings of a theatrical event.

If/Then

10 years after her Tony-winning turn in the smash-hit Wicked, Idina Menzel finally returns to the Broadway stage in If/Then.  That information alone would be enough to pique my interest; the fact that the show is written by Next to Normal's Tom Kitt and Brian Yorkey, who crafted one of the most fascinating musical dramas of the past decade and wrote an incredible diva role for eventual Tony-winner Alice Ripley, shoots this towards the top of my must see list.  Menzel has some able-bodied support in costars like LaChanze (whom I adored in The Color Purple) and fellow Rent alum Anthony Rapp, and the incredibly talented Michael Grief directing her.  All the ingredients for theatrical magic are there, and I cannot wait to see what this team has come up with.

Violet

Two words:  Sutton Foster.  Foster is one of the select few performers who can prompt me to buy a ticket based on her name alone, as she has never been anything less than stellar in every show I've been privileged enough to see her in (even when the actual shows left me cold, as was the case with Little Women).  She has one of the purest belts in the contemporary theatre, along with the acting chops and sheer charisma to hold your attention even when she isn't singing.  And while I know almost nothing about Violet, which had a very brief Off-Broadway run in the 1990s, everyone I know who has actually heard the music raves about it.  Composer Jeanine Tesori also has the distinction of having written Thoroughly Modern Millie, the show that shot Foster to stardom and her first Tony Award, so seeing the two reteam on this new project is doubly exciting.

Rocky

I am in no way, shape, or form convinced that this adaptation of the Oscar-winning film will actually work as a musical.  In fact, it could be a disaster of epic proportions.  But Stephen Flaherty and Lynne Ahrens wrote one of the greatest musicals of all time (if not THE greatest) in Ragtime, and the rest of their catalogue is equally lovely.  The pair are also famous perfectionists, constantly rewriting and revising their shows in an effort to make them as good as they can possibly be, so I have to believe that there was something about Rocky that drew them to the project.  Good or bad, I think Rocky will be one show the entire industry is talking about come spring, and I want to see it firsthand.  Whether I leave praising its triumphs or deconstructing its missteps remains to be seen.


I wish I could say I was excited about the plays that are opening this spring on Broadway, but the truth of the matter is none of them grab me the way the above musicals do.  Like everyone else, I was blown away by Bryan Cranston's performance on Breaking Bad, and I fully believe he will make an excellent stage actor, but the out-of-town reviews for All The Way were lukewarm (many critics felt the play was too long and unfocused).  I personally thought Denzel Washington was overrated in Fences a couple of seasons back, so the idea of him doing A Raisin in the Sun doesn't thrill me.  And while I find the idea of Debra Messing starring in a comedy by Pulitzer-winner John Patrick Shanely appealing, it isn't a must see for me.  I *am* excited to see Alan Cumming reprise his Emcee in the Roundabout's remounting of their Tony-winning Cabaret (since I missed it the first time around), but at the end of the day they are just dusting off a production from 15 years ago that may or may not still feel relevant.

What are you most looking forward to for the coming spring season?  Feel free to let me know in the comments.  And look for reviews of as many of the spring shows as I can get to in the coming months.

The Worst Shows of 2013

Every year, I like to do a snarkier, far less goodnatured companion to my Best Shows of the Year lists (which you can see here and here).  Because as much as I wish it wasn't so, some shows are just bad, and there's no excuse for that in a city with such a wealth of talented, knowledgeable theatre professionals.

So here, for your reading enjoyment, is my Worst Shows of 2013 list.  Just like my Best Shows list, for a production to be eligible it must have: 1) opened during the 2013 calendar year; and 2) been seen by yours truly.  The good news is that this year, I couldn't even come up with my standard list of 5, which means either the shows were generally better this year or I was better at avoiding the real stinkers.  The shows with the "honor" of making this list were not just bad, but so bad that I found them to be an insult to the art form and those of us who love it.  I know there's at least one choice that's going to cause some controversy, but I fully stand behind my naming these shows the four least enjoyable things I've seen this year.

4) The Glass Menagerie

Cherry Jones and Celia Keenan-Bolger; two superbly cast, horribly directed actresses in Broadway's latest Glass Menagerie.

I'm sure many will disagree with this choice, as the current Broadway revival of The Glass Menagerie has ended up on many critics' Best Of lists, with several going so far as proclaiming it the best production of the play they've ever seen.  I don't know what production those critics saw, but the show I witnessed was a prime example of good material ruined by bad direction.  Menagerie may be a "memory play" with a certain dreamlike quality to it, but that doesn't give director John Tiffany permission to hopscotch from abstract concept to abstract concept mid-performance.  Celia Keenan-Bolger's first entrance from inside the couch is a striking visual, but it sets up a convention that is never again revisited and therefore seems extraneous in hindsight (no other characters makes an entrance or exit nearly as interesting).  The choreographed interstitials, seemingly left over from Tiffany's Tony-winning musical Once, are the definition of random, and provide no useful service to either character development or narrative structure.  The four actors are well cast, but then poorly directed to the point where none of the roles land the way they need to for the piece to truly sing.  While I appreciate Tiffany's choice to emphasize the play's comedy as a way to free it from the baggage of being a Great American Drama, he has defanged the play (and the character of Amanda in particular) to the point where the final scenes have none of the poignancy or resonance they were clearly meant to.  I know I'm in the minority with this opinion, but I truly don't understand what all the fuss is about, which is doubly disappointing as this was one of the fall shows I was most excited to see.

3) Cat on a Hot Tin Roof

At least Scarlett Johansson and Benjamin Walker are easy on the eyes.

On paper, reviving Tennessee Williams' Pulitzer Prize-winning Cat on a Hot Tin Roof with Tony-winner Scarlett Johansson sounds like a surefire recipe for success (and you haters can shut your mouths, because she was outstanding in A View from the Bridge).  But the first of many poor decisions made by the producers was booking the cavernous Richard Rodgers Theatre, which is simply too big for the scale of this play.  The actors were practically swallowed by the gargantuan set and playing space, and compensated for it by screaming most of their lines in a desperate attempt to fill the space.  This need by the entire cast to push, perhaps at director Rob Ashford's encouragement, robbed the play of all subtly and variance in emotional intensity, resulting in a very long evening of deeply unhappy people yelling at each other.  And not in a good way, as in other Pulitzer Prize winners like Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf? or August: Osage County.  Here's hoping the critical and commercial failure of this production doesn't scare the supremely talented Johansson away from Broadway forever.

2) Little Miss Sunshine

"I can't answer the question, 'Are we there yet?' No one knows what direction this show is headed in!"

The best word I can think of to describe the film version of Little Miss Sunshine is "quirky," which is one of the hardest traits to convey onstage.  But if anyone was capable of pulling it off, it should have been James Lapine and William Finn, whose collaboration on The 25th Annual Putnam County Spelling Bee was the definition of "quirky" and a surprise critical and commercial success.  Unfortunately, lightning failed to strike twice, and the Off-Broadway premiere of Little Miss Sunshine was a borderline painful experience.  Lapine and Finn seemed unable to decide if they wanted to emphasize the comedy or the drama, and splitting the difference resulted in neither one being particularly successful.  Structurally the show was a nightmare, with most of Finn's songs serving little to no purpose and in several cases making character motivations and feelings more obscure rather than clearer.  The supremely talented cast - including Tony-nominees Stephanie J. Block, Rory O'Malley, and Will Swenson - all struggled mightily to overcome the frankly terrible material, and unfortunately none of them emerged entirely unscathed from the debacle.  Heavily rewritten after its original premiere at La Jolla Playhouse, perhaps it's time the creators declare this show unsalvageable and move on to other ventures.

1) Cinderella

You're right, Laura.  It's NOT fair that you two have to act in this debacle.

I really struggled with whether to crown Little Miss Sunshine or Cinderella the year's worst show, but ultimately the complete debacle occurring nightly at the Broadway Theatre is the more egregious waste of money and talent.  Although officially titled Rodgers & Hammerstein's Cinderella, this completely reworked version of the 1957 telemovie bears such little resemblance to that work it might as well be a new show.  For reasons I will never understand, Douglas Carter Beane was contracted to rewrite the show's book, despite his work on Lysistrata Jones and Sister Act proving that he wouldn't know proper story structure or quality character writing if it bit him in the ass.  Beane's postmodern sensibility is at complete odds with the earnestness of Rodgers and Hammerstein's score, and he burdens the show with a kindergarten-level lecture on the merits of democracy that is so simplistic it is actively insulting.

Forcing Laura Osnes to act in such drivel is almost criminal, especially considering how ideally suited she is for the Cinderella Rodgers and Hammerstein originally wrote.  Harriet Harris is saddled with the brunt a bad jokes and a character "arc" that makes even less sense than the translated menu at a Chinese take-out restaurant, and watching Ann Harada struggle to act out both sides of the Evil Stepsister dynamic (since Beane has decided to make the other stepsister more sympathetic) is just sad.  To borrow a phrase overused by pretty much every character in the show:  "Seriously?"  The Broadway Theatre has hosted some truly awful productions over the past few years, and unfortunately Cinderella is right up there with Promises, Promises in it's ability to insult and torture anyone unfortunate enough to wind up in the audience.


And there you have it; the worst shows of 2013.  I recommend avoiding these works at all costs, and spending your hard-earned cash on something that actually advances the theatre.  Hopefully this list will be even shorter next year.  Happy New Year!