2016 Tony Award Predictions: Revival

The 2016 Tony Awards will be handed out in just over 24 hours, and my annual predictions have finally reached the production categories. These are the biggest awards of the night, as a win in one of these categories can have a massive effect on a show's box office fortunes. Shows that were struggling to find audiences prior to the Tony Awards often become sold out hits after winning, and while it cannot be proven I'd wager that most shows which win Best Revival run longer than they would have otherwise (unless the winner was already closed when the awards are handed out).

As always, I will use a combination of gut feelings and industry buzz to predict the most likely winners in each category. And if I disagree with the likely winner, I will be sure to point out which show I think is more deserving of Broadway's highest honor in my comments.

Warning: Occasional snark and plenty of speculation to follow.

Best Revival of a Play

Mark Strong and the cast of A View from the Bridge

Nominees: Blackbird, The Crucible, Long Day's Journey Into Night, Noises Off, A View from the Bridge

There are some very solid productions in this category, but I have trouble imagining the majority of them actually winning. While well reviewed, I think the subject matter of Blackbird (a victim of child molestation confronting the man who abused her 15 years later) is off-putting to enough voters that they will shy away from voting it Best Revival. And while The Crucible has been doing well with both critics and audiences, it is clearly the lesser of this season's two Arthur Miller revivals in most people's minds.

I absolutely adored Noises Off, and if the show was still running I think it would be a real contender to win. Anyone who has attempted comedy knows how hard it is, and the ensemble of this revival pulled off the show's physical comedy and quirky ensemble work effortlessly. But Noised Off closed back in March, being replaced at the American Airlines Theatre by the much weightier Long Day's Journey Into Night. I personally found Noises Off to be the more successful production, but if a Roundabout play wins this category it will likely be Night, which just feels like a more important and award-worthy play. 

Ultimately though, I think director Ivo van Hove's avant garde production of A View from the Bridge will take this prize. Despite being closed for months, it is a production that absolutely wowed the industry this past winter thanks to its daring directorial concept and design approach. The production was so fresh and new that many critics were taken by surprise by plot points and moments of stage business that have always been in the oft-revived show. This is a production I suspect will be remembered for years to come, and will win both on its own merits and as a way to honor Ivo van Hove's impressive year of work.

Will Win: A View from the Bridge

Should Win: Noises Off

Best Revival of a Musical

Zachary Levi and Laura Benanti share a picture-perfect embrace during Roundabout's standout She Loves Me.

Nominees: The Color Purple, Fiddler on the Roof, She Loves Me, Spring Awakening

This is an outstanding category, as a convincing case could be made for any one of these shows taking home the Best Musical Revival prize. Of the four, I'd say Fiddler is the "weakest," but even then it has a towering performance by Danny Burstein and a freshly illuminating take on well-known material to its credit. It is also currently running, which probably makes it more competitive than Spring Awakening despite the latter being a much more interesting and artistically daring endeavor. Unlike some, I am not enamored with Spring Awakening as a show, but I did love Deaf West's endlessly fascinating production, which incorporated both spoken English and American Sign Language into the performance. I know a lot of industry folks were deeply moved by Awakening, and if any closed production could manage to triumph over three currently running shows it would probably be this one.

But The Color Purple and She Loves Me are both exceptional, and the current front runners. Working in The Color Purple's favor is its completely reconceived approach to the material and a sensational, likely Tony-winning performance by leading lady Cynthia Erivo. This staging caused a lot of critics to reassess The Color Purple as a piece of theatrical writing after dismissing the original production as overwrought, the hallmark of a good revival. But I do have some reservations about a couple of John Doyle's directorial choices and several of the supporting performances, while I struggle to find even one negative thing to say about the absolutely exquisite She Loves Me. Roundabouts sparkling revival is pretty much perfect, a gem of a musical romance that is one of the most transporting evenings in the theatre I've had all year. Heading into Tony season, The Color Purple was the clear favorite in this category, and may well still win, but She Loves Me has been steadily gaining steam to the point where I honestly think it will emerge as one of the happiest surprises of the night.

Will & Should Win: She Loves Me

Agree or disagree? Let me know! And don't forget to check out the rest of my 2016 Tony coverage below.

Nominee React

Best Book and Score

Best Direction and Choreography

Best Featured Actor

Best Featured Actress

Best Actor 

Best Actress

2016 Tony Award Predictions: Direction and Choreography

Tony season is upon us, and all of Broadway is buzzing with excitement in preparation for the industry's big night. While speculation on winners seems more muted this year due to the presumed dominance of Hamilton, the fact of the matter is we had a very strong season with a lot of Tony-worthy work. Combined with Tony voters' recent penchant for spreading the wealth (you have to go back to the 2012 ceremony to find a single production that took home more than 5 awards), it's entirely possible Lin-Manuel Miranda's juggernaut loses a couple races. Not to mention the play categories, which Hamilton can't win and are fairly competitive this year.

As always, I will do my best to predict the winners in the direction, production, and acting categories. And since who will win does not always match up with who deserves to win, I will make sure to point out any discrepancies in my analysis.

Warning: Occasional snark and plenty of speculation to follow.

Best Direction of a Play

Mark Strong (center) and the cast of A View from the Bridge.

Nominees: Rupert Gould, King Charles III; Jonathan Kent, Long Day's Journey Into Night; Joe Mantello, The Humans; Liesl Tommy, Eclipsed; Ivo Van Hove, A View from the Bridge

It's an incredibly competitive season when it comes to the directing races, and although it sounds cliche this year it truly is an honor just to be nominated. Tony voters don't have an easy decision to make when it comes to Best Direction of a Play, as this season in particular saw a number of bold directorial concepts driving some of the best reviewed works of the season.

I am a bit puzzled by Jonathan Kent's inclusion here, as his directorial choices for Long Day's Journey Into Night were at the heart of what didn't work for me in that revival (namely, the inconsistent acting styles and poorly conceived blocking). I think he can be ruled out of the running, as can Rupert Gould, mostly due to the fact that King Charles III has been closed long enough it appears to have faded from most people's memory. Liesl Tommy has done some absolutely lovely and subtle work on Eclipsed, but I fear she probably didn't put enough of her own personal stamp on the show to win, because whether it's fair or not the Tonys have a tendency to recognize flashier nominees. 

Which would also seem to rule out two-time Tony-winner Joe Mantello for the understated The Humans, but that production is one of the best reviewed plays of the season and a win for Mantello could be viewed as acknowledge of his work on it and the well respected Blackbird. There are few directors who can coax honest, complex performances out of their actors like Mantello, an exceedingly rare skill everyone in the industry recognizes and admires. But I ultimately think Tony voters will reward avante garde director Ivo van Hove, who afters years of working abroad and Off-Broadway burst onto the Great White Way this season with two incredibly well received revivals of Arthur Miller classics. Giving van Hove the prize allows voters to recognize the work he's done on both A View from the Bridge and the currently running The Crucible, the culmination of a season of boundary pushing work from the Belgian director.

Will & Should Win: Ivan van Hove, A View from the Bridge

Best Director of a Musical

The cast of the little musical that could, Hamilton.

Nominees: Michael Arden, Spring Awakening; John Doyle, The Color Purple; Scott Ellis, She Loves Me; Thomas Kail, Hamilton; George C. Wolfe, Shuffle Along

Wow. The strength of this year's Best Director of a Musical nominees is just astounding. While many people expect Thomas Kail to take this award for his fascinating, fluid staging of Broadway's latest blockbuster, I suspect the actual vote will be a lot closer than expected, and if there's going to be a surprise on Tony night this category might be it. 

Scott Ellis' production of She Loves Me is practically perfect, one of the best representations of that musical gem we're ever likely to see, and his light but assured hand was essential in achieving that level of quality. John Doyle completely reconceived The Color Purple from the ground up, reclaiming it in the eyes of many critics who were underwhelmed by the original production. I have a couple of nitpicks with Doyle's directorial choices, but overall it is an outstanding production that could not have happened without him. And I'm even more impressed with Michael Arden's work on Spring Awakening; his use of American Sign Language didn't feel like a gimmick, but actually added new layers of meaning and beauty to a piece which became as much about the alienation of the deaf characters from the rest of society as it did about angsty teens singing rock songs.

But in the end, I do think Hamilton will prevail, and it's hard to argue with that outcome. The show is one of the single most electrifying evenings of theatre I've ever experienced, and the show's narrative clarity and theatrical effectiveness comes as much from Kail's staging as it does from Lin-Manuel Miranda's words and music.

Will & Should Win: Thomas Kail, Hamilton

Special Shout Out: Scott Ellis, She Loves Me

Best Choreography

Leslie Odom, Jr. and the cast of Hamilton performing "The Room Where It Happens."

Nominees: Andy Blankenbeuhler, Hamilton; Savion Glover, Shuffle Along; Hofesh Shechter, Fiddler on the Roof; Randy Skinner, Dames at Sea; Sergio Trujillo, On Your Feet

Can I just say how refreshing it is to see such strong nominees in this category? There was a period a few years ago where we were lucky if one musical a season produced Tony-worthy choreography, but ever since Newsies there has been a steady increase in the number of dance heavy shows on Broadway and I couldn't be happier. All of the nominated choreographers have distinctive, exciting styles that created some of the most memorable production numbers of the season.

That said, this is really a two horse race between Andy Blankenbeuhler and Savion Glover, as both men have created a bevy of inventive, pulse pounding routines for their respective shows. Glover's tap choreography is integral to almost all of the most effective moments in Shuffle Along, including the roof raising opening number and the edge of your seat tap battle in the middle of the show's second act. Blankenbeuhler's dancers barely stop moving throughout the entirety of Hamilton's three hour runtime, and for the first time in the previous Tony-winner's career I didn't find the effect distracting. I also adored his lyrical, abstract take on the show's climatic duel between Hamilton and Burr, one of the most beautiful and moving moments in the entire show. As both Blankenbeuhler and Glover already have Tony Awards it's hard to say either one is due, and while I have a *slight* preference for Glover's tap dancing I suspect Hamilton's momentum will bring Blankenbeuhler his second career win.

Will Win: Andy Blankenbeuhler, Hamilton

Should Win: Savior Glover, Shuffle Along

Let me know who you're rooting for in the comments, and be sure to check back soon for further Tony predictions. In the meantime, don't forget to check out my previous commentary below:

Best Book and Score

Extremely Early 2016 Tony Predictions: Part I

The Christmas decorations are packed away, we're beginning to see which New Year's resolutions are actually going to stick, and the weather has become decidedly cold and snowy. It is definitely late January in New York City, which means we're just over halfway through the 2015-2016 Broadway season. As has become tradition here at Broadway Etc., I am once again taking stock of the new crop of fall shows to see which ones are in the best position to be remembered when the Tony Award nominations are announced on May 3rd.

As always, handicapping the Tony Awards in an inexact science, but based on some historical trends along with good old fashioned gut instinct I'm ready to make some predictions. Of course, anything can happen depending on how well or poorly the spring shows are received, but here's my take on how things stand so far.

Best Musical

Thomas Jefferson's (Daveed Diggs) coming home...to the Tony Awards.

I know it's early in the season and there are a *lot* of new musicals scheduled to open in the spring, but I think it's safe to call this category for Hamilton. It is easily the most important musical of the 21st century, and I honestly believe future generations will talk about this show the same way we talk about groundbreaking works like A Chorus Line and Rent. It's also just really fucking good, a near perfect fusion of writing, direction, and performances that has floored everyone who's been lucky enough to snag a ticket. As for what other shows will be competing against Lin-Manuel Miranda's hip-hop juggernaut, at this point only On Your Feet and School of Rock seem to be viable contenders. Whether either makes the cut largely depends on whether the Tony committee ends up selecting four or five Best Musical nominees, as the spring musicals would have to be rather disappointing to not account for at least half of this category. I will give the slight edge to Andrew Lloyd Webber's return to form with School of Rock, as a lot of critics seemed skeptical of their enjoyment of On Your Feet, but regardless of what happens I expect a healthy Broadway and regional life for both productions.

Best Play

The (future) Royal Family, as portrayed in British import King Charles III.

This fall has been fantastic for everything except new plays on Broadway. Of the five eligible productions, only British import King Charles III received the kind of critical accolades that will help Tony voters remember it come May (all of the fall plays will be closed by the time Tony nominations are announced). At this point China Doll and Misery are best known for the shortcomings of their famous headliners - both of whom are rumored to be getting line prompts via earpiece - than for the quality of their scripts, and Our Mother's Brief Affair has been met with the kind of muted enthusiasm that often greets Manhattan Theatre Club productions. The fact that Roundabout's divisive Therese Raquin is even a possibility speaks to the uncompetitive nature of the fall plays, but I suspect King Charles is the only we'll actually be talking about come Tony Tuesday.

Best Revival of a Musical

The Color Purple headliners Cynthia Erivo and Jennifer Hudson are blowing the roof off that theatre nightly.

This has already been an amazing season for musical revivals, and in my opinion every one thus far has been at least nomination worthy. That said, unless something goes horribly wrong I have to imagine that Roundabout's spring revival of She Loves Me makes the cut, and if Shuffle Along is ruled a revival then it stands a strong chance of getting one of the four Best Musical Revival nominations (there aren't enough eligible productions to allow for the addition of a fifth nominee). John Doyle's sensational striped down production of The Color Purple is the safest bet for inclusion in the category, and at this point looks likely to take the whole thing. Bartlett Sher also seems to have a standing invitation to the Tony Awards, and regardless of what you think about the modern dress framing device he added to Fiddler on the Roof the rest of the production is so well done I can't imagine it being left out. At this point, there's a legitimate chance that Deaf West's highly effective Spring Awakening gets ignored to make room for Shuffle Along (the latter's producers are pushing hard for a revival classification), and that seems almost criminal. This is the most competitive by far of the production categories, and is almost certain to result in at least one legitimate snub.

Best Revival of a Play

There's no stronger critical catnip than British actors digging into a meaty drama, as the ecstatic reception of this season's A View from the Bridge proves.

This is the category that tends to change the least between the fall and the spring, as most of the eligible productions are limited runs that have opened and closed by the time winter rolls around. From the fall crop of play revivals, I would say two are almost guaranteed to be among this year's Tony nominees: the critically lauded A View from the Bridge and Noises Off. Should a third play from the fall make the cut, it's a toss up between Fool for Love, The Gin Game, and Sylvia. I will give the slight edge to Fool for Love for being the most respected piece of writing of the bunch, as it is very hard to be competitive in this category without strong writing. Despite the love for stars James Earl Jones and Cecily Tyson, the most common response to this fall's revival of The Gin Game seemed to be, "How did this win the Pulitzer?" Meanwhile, Sylvia is most likely to be remembered for Annaleigh Ashford's star turn as the titular pooch, which could well land the actress among this year's nominees for Best Actress in a Play.


That's my take on where the production categories currently stand. Check back soon for my thoughts on the acting races, and in the meantime don't be afraid to share your thoughts in the comments!