2017 Tony Award Predictions: Best Play and Musical

The 2017 Tony Awards are this Sunday, and so we end my annual Tony predictions by tackling the two most important and prestigious races of the night, Best Play and Best Musical. A win in either of these categories has the most demonstrable and immediate effect on a show's box office, and virtually guarantees a nice, multi-year run on Broadway (especially for musicals). Which also increases the show's chances of turning a profit, going on tour, and being produced regionally, all of which allow the talented writers behind these shows to continue doing what they do best: make theatre.

As always, I will use a combination of personal opinion, critical consensus, and industry buzz to determine the most *likely* winner. This is not necessarily the most deserving winner, and should I disagree with the way Tony voters are leaning I will be certain to point it out in my analysis. Now let's get started!

Best Play

The Broadway cast of Oslo at Lincoln Center.

Nominees: A Doll's House, Part 2; Indecent; Oslo; Sweat

The Best Play Tony is a tricky one, as it functions as both a writing award and an acknowledgement of the production as a whole. Which raises the question of what Tony voters should be considering when casting their ballot; is the quality of the script the most important factor, or do they allow exceedingly well executed staging and performances lift a script that maybe isn't as strong into the top position?

This year sees two Pulitzer Prize winning playwrights make their Broadway debuts after decades of writing for the theatre. Both Lynn Nottage's Sweat and Paula Vogel's Indecent have been universally praised, with Sweat having the added benefit of winning the 2017 Pulitzer Prize for Drama (making Nottage the only woman to ever win the award multiple times). But the Pulitzer doesn't guarantee a Tony win, as shown by the Broadway production of Disgraced losing to The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time in 2015. I don't expect either show to win, but Sweat could possibly score an upset.

Considering Lucas Hnath's A Doll's House, Part 2 is the most nominated play of the season, it seems likely that the Ibsen inspired work will ultimately be crowned the winner. But J.T. Roger's historical thriller Oslo just scored the Drama Desk Award for Best Play, while Doll's House wasn't even nominated. Given Oslo's strong performance in the guild awards, I will hesitantly select it as my official pick to win, but I won't be surprised to see a different name called Sunday night.

Will Win: Oslo

Best Musical

Tony nominee Ben Platt and the cast of Dear Evan Hansen.

Nominees: Come From Away; Dear Evan Hansen; Groundhog Day; Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812

At the risk of sounding snarky, I cannot understand how Groundhog Day found itself included in this year's Best Musical race. This season saw 13 new musicals open on Broadway, and while I have not seen them all I can definitively say that Groundhog Day wouldn't place in my Top 4 (I vastly preferred the underrepresented War Paint). Perhaps Tony voters took West End critics at their word, since the London production was recently awarded the Olivier for Best Musical despite the show's many structural issues and overall lack of focus. On the bright side, I don't know anyone who expects Groundhog Day to win big on Tony night.

Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812 has the most nominations of any show this season with 12, but despite strong work in so many areas the show doesn't quite gel the way it did Off-Broadway. Something was lost in the transfer from an intimate Off-Broadway venue to the cavernous Imperial Theatre, and while many Tony voters appreciate Great Comet's bold invention and pushing of theatrical boundaries, I don't foresee it winning Best Musical on Sunday. I applaud the producers for taking the chance to bring such a risky show to a wider audience, and I'm genuinely glad for all of it's success, even if it wasn't my favorite show of the season.

The question of whether Dear Evan Hansen or Come From Away is more deserving of the Best Musical trophy is difficult. Evan Hansen is a fascinating examination of how social media has complicated the primal human need for connection and belonging, at once timely and timeless as many of the emotional stakes stem from issues that existed long before Facebook and Twitter. It has also obviously struck a chord with audiences, as evidenced by its extremely vocal fan base. But the less showy Come From Away is an equally accomplished work, an inspirational example of the boundless possibilities of human kindness in the wake of extreme tragedy. Come From Away has been honed to perfection, to the point where I'm not sure I would change a single word of the book or lyrics.

Both shows are deserving, and I would honestly support either one as this year's Best Musical winner. Ultimately, I suspect Tony voters will go with Dear Evan Hansen, which is what I would vote for if forced to choose. Both the writing and the performances stay with you long after the show ends, and despite seeing Evan Hansen back in January I find myself thinking back on that show more often than Come From Away. The mark of truly great theatre is that it affects you, however incidentally, and stays with you long after the final curtain, and while both Evan Hansen and Come From Away fulfill these requirements, Evan Hansen does so a bit more.

Will and Should Win: Dear Evan Hansen

And that brings us to the end of our 2017 Tony Award predictions! We'll know the victors by the end of Sunday night, and be sure to check back early next week for my final thoughts on this year's winners and the Tony telecast in general. In the meantime, share your thoughts in the comments and catch up on the rest of my coverage below.

Nominations React

Best Book and Score

Best Direction and Choreography

Best Featured Actor

Best Featured Actress

Best Actor

Best Actress

Best Revival

2017 Tony Awards Predictions: Direction and Choreography

With the Tony Awards less than 2 weeks away, it's time to really dig in and start making predictions about the people and productions who will receive Broadway's highest honor on June 11th. As always, I will be using a combination of personal opinion, critical acclaim, and industry buzz to determine who I think is most likely to win each of the major races. As these are predictions about who will win rather than who I think should win, sometimes my personal favorite will be the underdog. If so, I'll be sure to point that out in my analysis.

On with the predictions!

Best Direction of a Play

Tony nominees Laura Linney and Cynthia Nixon in The Little Foxes.

Nominees: Sam Gold, A Doll's House: Part 2; Ruben Santiago-Hudson, Jitney; Bartlett Sher, Oslo; Daniel Sullivan, The Little Foxes; Rebecca Taichman, Indecent

I'm at a bit of a disadvantage in this category, as I have shamefully not seen any of the nominated productions. That said, all of these nominees are very well regarded, which makes for a race that could go any number of ways. Personally, I think Bartlett Sher is the least likely winner, as Oslo seems to lack the momentum that some of the other big plays have. I think Rebecca Taichman may run into a similar obstacle with Indecent, a play many people greatly admire but that doesn't seem to be anyone's favorite, a major problem when Tony votes are often emotional as much as they are analytical.

A Doll's House: Part 2 is the most nominated new play of the season, which puts director Sam Gold in a very strong position. However, he is also the most recent Tony winner of the bunch, having just won in 2015 for Fun Home. I suspect most Tony voters would prefer to spread the love, and the fact Gold also helmed the highly divisive, stripped down, modern dress revival of The Glass Menagerie this spring doesn't help matters.

Ruben Santiago-Hudson has made a name for himself as one of the top interpreters of August Wilson's work, a cannon that has enjoyed renewed admiration thanks to the Oscar-nominated film version of Fences and the highly lauded Broadway premiere of Jitney, which Santiago-Hudson is nominated for. Helming the one production not currently running is generally a Tony handicap, but this might be a case of absence making the heart grow fonder. Then again, Santiago-Hudson is just as likely to be undone by Daniel Sullivan's work on the buzzy revival of The Little Foxes, the fifth Broadway production of Lillian Helman's drama which turned out far better than anyone expected it to. There's also the fact that Sullivan is one of the most respected directors in the industry, but has curiously only won the Tony once, all the way back in 2001 for Proof. Sullivan seems overdue for a second Tony win, and I think The Little Foxes is the show that will bring it to him.

Will win: Daniel Sullivan, The Little Foxes
Should win: Abstain

Best Direction of a Musical

Tony nominees Mike Faist and Ben Platt in Dear Evan Hansen.

Nominees: Christopher Ashley, Come From Away; Rachel Chavkin, Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812; Michael Greif, Dear Evan Hansen; Matthew Warchus, Groundhog Day; Jerry Zaks, Hello, Dolly!

I *have* seen all the nominees for Best Direction of a Musical, and with the exception of Matthew Warchus' overly busy, unfocused take on Groundhog Day I can easily make a case for any one of them. I have long admired Michael Greif's steady directorial hand in contemporary musicals, but despite helming some of the most influential shows of the past 20 years (including Rent and Next to Normal), Greif remains Tony-less. He really feels overdue for a win, and with Dear Evan Hansen he has once again taken a show that tackles big concepts and made it feel intensely personal.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, no one can argue four-time winner Jerry Zaks is overdue for a Tony, which I suspect will cause Tony voters to lean towards one of the other contenders. But one must also consider that Zaks has given us what may well be a perfect production Hello, Dolly!; it certainly feels like a definitive rendition of the old war horse, one that honors the iconic original production while also injecting new life into a show that was in very real danger of feeling dated. And with over 20 years between now and his last Tony win (for the 1992 Guys and Dolls revival), Zaks could prove to be a dark horse contender.

But ultimately, I think Tony voters will go with Rachel Chavkin's exhilarating, immersive staging of Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812, a show many doubted would survive the move from an intimate site-specific Off-Broadway production into a more traditional Broadway house. I'm not entirely sure the move was successful, but one can't deny that Chavkin is largely responsible for the most memorable aspects of the transfer, utilizing the cavernous Imperial Theatre to great effect. I personally am more impressed with Christopher Ashley's subtly brilliant work on Come From Away, but it probably isn't showy enough to beat out Chavkin.

Will Win: Rachel Chavkin, Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812
Should Win: Michael Greif, Dear Evan Hansen

Best Choreography

Corey Cott, Laura Osnes, and the cast of the Bandstand.

Nominees: Andy Blankenbuehler, Bandstand; Peter Darling and Ellen Kane, Groundhog Day; Kelly Devine, Come From Away; Denis Jones, Holiday Inn; Sam Pinkleton, Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812

This is something of an odd category, as only two of the five nominated productions are what I would consider dance shows. The rest are more movement based, which is by no means a knock against them but does make it harder for me (and Tony voters) to justify giving them what is clearly a dance award.

Honestly, Andy Blankenbuehler probably deserves this award the most, as his shows are always kinetic masterpieces that are propelled by dance as much as anything else. But he just won for Hamilton, and without work that in inarguably better than everyone else's I have trouble imagining voters bestowing this award on him twice in a row. The only other show that is a clear dance show is Holiday Inn, which closed so long ago I feel like most people have forgotten about it (although Denis Jones' high energy work on "Shakin' the Blues Away" is the most memorable dance sequence of the season).

For me, Sam Pinkleton's work on Great Comet is trying way too hard, and the least successful segment of the show is also the one that most heavily features Pinkleton's work, the unnecessarily long "Balaga" number. Similarly, Peter Darling and Ellen Kane's work on Groundhog Day feels forced rather than growing naturally out of the narrative. I'm not sure anyone expects the tap number that appears late in Act II, and it isn't good enough to make you forget that it doesn't really belong. Which almost makes Kelly Devine's work on Come From Away the winner by default, as her choreography at least seamlessly blends with the staging and storytelling rather than being awkwardly inserted into it.

Will Win: Kelly Devine, Come From Away
Should Win: Andy Blankebeuhler, Bandstand

Be sure to check back soon for my predictions on the first of this year's acting categories. In the meantime, share your own thoughts in the comments, and don't forget to check out my previous 2017 Tony coverage.

Nominations React
Best Book and Score

2017 Tony Award Predictions: Book and Score

In just a few short weeks, the American Theatre Wing will hand out the 71st Annual Tony Awards, celebrating the best of Broadway this past season. As is tradition, I will once again use my unique combination of personal opinion, critical analysis, and industry buzz to try and predict the winners of this year's awards!

2017 is going to be a lot trickier to predict than 2016, since we aren't able to vote Hamilton down the line. While nothing has been the game changing, record setting blockbuster that Hamilton was (and continues to be), there are multiple excellent productions vying for Broadway's top prize this year, and no clear front runner among them. Many of the big races could go a multitude of ways, particularly among the new musicals, so take everything I say with a grain of salt. Also remember that I am predicting who I think will win, not necessarily who I think deserves to win; if I personally disagree with the way things seem to be going, I will be sure to point it out in my analysis.

So let's start this year's Tony predictions off with two of the tightest races of the night, Best Book and Best Score!

Best Book of a Musical

The company of Come From Away.

Nominees: Irene Sankoff and David Hein, Come From Away; Steven Levenson, Dear Evan Hansen; Danny Rubin, Groundhog Day; Dave Malloy, Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812

This year's Tony nominees showed a clear consensus among the nominating committee regarding the strongest new musicals; the nominated shows for this, Best Score, and the coveted Best Musical trophy are identical. Even more interesting/exciting is the fact that an argument could be made for any of these shows in any of the categories (well, except for Groundhog Day). I honestly don't know which way the Tony voters will swing.

Since Great Comet received the most total nominations this year, it should always be considered in contention for a win. However, I think Best Book is a long shot for the little Off-Broadway musical that could, as Dave Malloy's through composed work lacks any traditional book scenes. This is *not* meant in any way to disparage the structural bones Malloy has hung his mesmerizingly eclectic score on, but I don't know if enough people grasp how a musical without dialogue still has a book for him to win. 

Come From Away and Dear Evan Hansen are neck and neck here, and both are incredibly deserving. Conventional wisdom would have Tony voters rewarding Steven Levenson's more easily noticed work on Evan Hansen, which has both depth and cultural relevancy while expertly balancing comedy and pathos. But the way married writing team Irene Sankoff and David Hein seamlessly weave in and out of song and dialogue in Come From Away is truly a marvel, and their years of workshopping have resulted in a show where I honestly wouldn't change one word. They could easily score an upset over Levenson, and the more I think about it, the more I think they will.

Will and Should Win: Irene Sankoff and David Hein, Come From Away

Best Score

Lucas Steele and Denee Benton in Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812

Nominees: Irene Sankoff and David Hein, Come From Away; Benj Pasek and Justin Paul, Dear Evan Hansen; Tim Minchin, Groundhog Day; Dave Malloy, Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812

Once again, I think we can rule out Groundhog Day (this will be a recurring theme in my predictions). In this case, Tim Minchin's music seems to actively work against the storytelling, with roughly half the musical numbers eliciting a response of "Why is there a song here?" His overly verbose compositions are also difficult to decipher in the theatre, and in general this is one nomination I don't feel is deserved (I would have picked War Paint's Scott Frankel and Michael Korie instead). And while I won't completely rule out Come From Away's Irene Sankoff and David Hein, especially if the show ends up having a strong night, I think a win for score is a long shot for the Canadian duo. Their folk-influenced songs are lovely, but not as memorable as the remaining two nominees. 

Dear Evan Hansen and Great Comet represent two very different compositional philosophies, so the ultimate winner is largely up to Tony voters' sensibilities. For all the pop leanings of Dear Evan Hansen's contemporary score, Benj Pasek and Justin Paul have ultimately written recognizable, hummable showtunes. These are narrative driven songs of the highest quality, ones that strike a fine balance between melodic invention and accessibility, and their haunting "For Forever" is probably my favorite new song of the season. On the opposite end of the spectrum is Dave Malloy's incredibly adventurous fusion of such disparate genres as Russian folk music, electronica, and even opera into the dizzying symphony of Great Comet's auditory landscape. It isn't for everyone and rubs certain audience members the wrong way, but others (myself among them) find its unconventional nature to be its strongest asset.

We don't have the other theatre awards to give us any indication of how people are leaning, as the shows had their Off-Broadway premieres in different seasons and so have never been nominated against one another. I think Tony voters will ultimately go with Pasek and Paul, two incredibly talented up and comers who are still riding high on their Oscar win for La La Land. And I will be thrilled for them. But in my heart of heart, if forced to vote, I personally would choose Great Comet, and wouldn't be at all surprised or angry if Malloy wins instead.

Will Win: Benj Pasek and Justin Paul, Dear Evan Hansen

Should Win: Dave Malloy, Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812

Please continue to check back throughout the next two weeks for more Tony predictions, and share your own thoughts in the comments below!

A Small Show with a Big Heart

Review: Come From Away

Tony-nominee Jenn Colella (left) and the cast of Come From Away.

There are essentially two routes Broadway shows can go these days to justify their ever-growing price tags: elaborate spectacle that puts the money onstage, or theatrical craft so elevated its clearly the result of years of skill sharpening. Come From Away, the deeply moving and gloriously uplifting new musical now playing Broadway, thankfully opts for the latter, arriving in New York as a highly polished gem of a musical with the added bonus of not being based on any preexisting source material.

Written by Broadway newcomers Irene Sankoff and David Hein, Come From Away is inspired by the amazing true story of Gander, Newfoundland, which saw 38 planes and their accompanying 7000 passengers diverted to the small Canadian town when US airspace closed after the terrorist attacks of September 11th, 2001. And while this ensemble driven show doesn't shy away from the horrific aftereffects of that fateful day, it is also overflowing with inspiring stories of human kindness and mankind's capacity for love. The residents of Gander welcomed 7000 strangers into their homes without a moment's hesitation, feeding and clothing their multicultural visitors for 5 days until the planes were cleared to fly again. Yes, you will probably shed a few tears of sadness, but you will shed just as many at the sheer beauty of the simple human kindness on display.

What Sankoff and Hein manage to do so successfully is juxtapose moments of darkness with ones of hope. A particularly moving passage halfway through the intermissionless show illustrates how the many different faiths of the travelers allow them to cope with their grief, just after a Muslim traveler has been harassed during his midday prayers. The scenes seamlessly transition from spoken dialogue to the folk-influenced score and back again, balancing the specificity of the individual characters' journeys with the narrative's overarching themes. Sankoff and Hein have spent years honing the show prior to its New York debut, resulting in a work with nary a word out of place and a single story beat that feels forced or rushed. This is a musical that earns the emotions it elicits rather than manipulating them out of you.

The town of Gander is brought to life by an amazing ensemble of twelve actors, each playing multiple characters with little to distinguish them except changes in accent and some relatively minor costume pieces. So great is the entire cast's skill that not once during the show do you wonder who is playing who, even when they adopt a new persona onstage in front of your eyes. (Dialect coach Joel Goldes deserves special mention for guiding the cast to spot on Newfoundlander and multinational accents.)

While the entire cast is outstanding, Jenn Colella is particularly memorable as Beverley, the first female American Airlines captain and our window into the airlines' perspective on the entire ordeal (her rendition of "Me and the Sky" is a genuinely inspiring girl power anthem and one of the production's highlights). Sharon Wheatley and Lee MacDougall are adorable as a Texas divorcee and English businessman who find love amidst their awful circumstances, and Q. Smith is quietly heartbreaking as a mother waiting to hear from her first responder son. Although they are sometimes only given a line or two of dialogue to establish a character, each actor makes sure you know and care about everyone in the tale, to the point where you are genuinely curious about their fates after the final curtain.

Director Christopher Ashley is the assured captain of this streamlined ship, deftly guiding cast and audience through the show's many emotional highs and lows. With little more than some tables and chairs, Ashley takes us from a plane's cramped interior to a small town recreational center to the crowded confines of the airport's customs office. His directorial approach to the show is minimalist but far from simplistic, as the staging never fails to hold visual and emotional interest (greatly aided by Howell Binkley's outstanding lighting design). There is a kinetic energy that flows throughout the piece even when the characters are standing still, which makes the evening fly by.

Come From Away is a perfect example of the healing power of theatre, a cathartic and uplifting show centered around one of the darkest days in modern US history. Polished to a high sheen by a team of theatrical artisans working at the top of their game, this is must see theatre at its most pure. Do not let the 9/11 ties scare you away; you will cry, yes, but you will also laugh, cheer, and find yourself moved by humanity's ability to lift one another up when we truly need it. Given the dark and sometimes defeated political climate we find ourselves, Come From Away is just the sort of inspiring show Broadway needs right now.

2017 Tony Nominations React

Past Tony-winner Jane Krakowski and nominee Christopher Jackson announce the 2017 Tony Award nominees.

It's Tony Tuesday!!!! Early this morning Jane Krakowski and Christopher Jackson announced the nominees for the 71st annual Tony Awards, with Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812 leading the pack with 12 nominations, followed closely by hot ticket revival Hello, Dolly! with 10. (You can see a complete list of the nominees here.)

I have lots of thoughts about this year's nominees, but first let's see how well I did with my predictions. An asterisks represents a nominee I correctly predicted, while an asterisk in parentheses is a wildcard selection that made the grade:

Best Musical
Come From Away*
Dear Evan Hansen*
Groundhog Day*
Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812*

Best Play
A Doll’s House, Part 2
Indecent*
Oslo*
Sweat*

Best Revival of a Musical
Falsettos*
Hello, Dolly!*
Miss Saigon*

Best Revival of a Play
Jitney*
The Little Foxes*
Present Laughter*
Six Degrees of Separation*

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical
Christian Borle, Falsettos*
Josh Groban, Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812*
David Hyde Pierce, Hello, Dolly!
Andy Karl, Groundhog Day*
Ben Platt, Dear Evan Hansen*

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical
Denée Benton, Natasha, Pierre & The Great Comet of 1812
Christine Ebersole, War Paint*
Patti LuPone, War Paint*
Bette Midler, Hello, Dolly!*
Eva Noblezada, Miss Saigon*

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play
Denis Arndt, Heisenberg*
Chris Cooper, A Doll’s House, Part 2
Corey Hawkins, Six Degrees of Separation
Kevin Kline, Present Laughter*
Jefferson Mays, Oslo

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play
Cate Blanchett, The Present*
Jennifer Ehle, Oslo
Sally Field, The Glass Menagerie(*)
Laura Linney, The Little Foxes*
Laurie Metcalf, A Doll’s House, Part 2*

That's 28 out of 35 correct guesses, which makes for a fairly good 80% accuracy rating. However, if I'm being honest that figure is misleading as I ended up prediction one more nominee in all of the production categories, figuring the breadth of work this season would lead to the close vote totals that cause category expansions. That was not the case, showing that the Tony nominators were generally in agreement on which shows they liked best.

As for the nominees themselves, they went pretty much as expected. I was clearly wrong about enthusiasm for The Great Comet having cooled, as it leads the pack in nominations including a somewhat surprising nod for lead Denee Benton as Best Actress. It's not a choice I'm entirely behind, but I'm probably biased due to my unadulterated adoration of Phillipa Soo in the show's Off-Broadway incarnation, and there isn't an actress I think is more deserving who was left off the list (including Soo, who is poorly used in the not fully realized Amelie).

I'm pleasantly surprised to see Dear Evan Hansen's Mike Faist and Falsettos' Brandon Uranowitz among the Best Featured Actor nominees, as I though both gentlemen did great work in somewhat thankless roles. (In particular, Faist's turn on a dime modifications to his character during the charming "Sincerely Me" number is some of the best subtle musical acting of the season.) Part of me also wishes Tony voters had found space for Hello, Dolly's Gavin Creel *and* Taylor Trensch in this category, as their Cornelius and Barnaby are both fantastic and neither performance would be as successful without the other's support.

As for omissions, I'm bummed about War Paint's relatively modest showing, although I can't say I'm surprised. I loved the show, but the Drama Desk and Outer Critic's Circle nominations made it clear that a lot of the New York theatre scene was lukewarm to everything about it except its sensational leading ladies. I will take solace in the show's $1 million+ weekly box office and the feeling that it will be a show people will slowly discover and appreciate as time goes on.

I'm genuinely shocked by Allison Janney's exclusion from the Best Actress in a Play race. I have not seen the show, but in my mind she is definitely the selling point and would be my primary reason for buying a ticket, and I've heard no rumblings about her being disappointing. I also wish they had found room for Jennifer Laura Thompson from Dear Evan Hansen, who is just as good as her rightfully nominated costar Rachel Bay Jones. And while I haven't seen enough of the Best Actor in a Play nominees to argue that Gideon Glick was snubbed, I do think he did exceptional work in Significant Other.

Check back in the coming weeks for my annual Tony predictions, as well as reviews of at least 3 more nominated productions I haven't quite had time to write yet. And feel free to weigh in with your own thoughts on this year's nominees in the comments!

2017 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part I

Although Mother Nature can't quite decide what season it is, the calendar and abundance of Broadway openings these past few weeks have made it abundantly clear it is in fact late April. Which also means that the Tony  Awards are right around the corner, and as we do every year at Broadway, Etc., it's time to start predicting the nominees!

As always, these predictions represent my best attempt at synthesizing critical consensus, audience response, personal opinion, and past Tony trends to determine which shows are most likely to be singled out on May 2nd. This has proven to be a particularly engaging season with many strong contenders but few clear frontrunners; a strong case can be made for many of the productions and performances that have graced the Broadway boards this season. To acknowledge this competitiveness and the sometimes unpredictable Tony nominators, I will be choosing a Wildcard pick in addition to my official predictions for each of the races discussed. The Wildcard represents the person or production I think is most likely to unseat one of the presumed nominees, or prompt a category expansion where Tony rules allow for it.

So without further ado, here are my first round of picks!

Best Musical

The cast of Dear Evan Hansen.

In a welcome change of pace from last year, there is no preordained winner among this season's new musicals. I absolutely adore Hamilton, but its presence last year made for a very predictable ceremony. This year there are a whopping 13 possible contenders for Best Musical, proving that the Great White Way remains a healthy breeding ground for new works.

I think there are 2 virtual locks for nominations: Dear Evan Hansen and Come From Away. Both shows received across the board raves and have many passionate fans, and it would be shocking to see either excluded from contention. At one point, Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812 also appeared to be a lock for a nomination, but industry excitement for the genre-busting show has cooled considerably since its fall premiere. I still think a nomination is *likely* for Great Comet, but it is no longer guaranteed thanks to the strength of the spring musicals.

Specifically, I think both War Paint and Groundhog Day stand a strong chance of being nominated. Both shows come from respected creative teams and feature some of the buzziest performances of the season. I personally adored War Paint, and despite criticism of its structure being two predictable - the show continually cross cuts between the lives of main characters Helena Rubinstein and Elizabeth Arden - I have trouble imagining it being left off the list Tony Tuesday. Groundhog Day just won the Olivier Award for Best Musical, bolstering the awards prospects of Tim Minchin's follow-up to the beloved Matilda, although success in London no longer automatically translate to success with Tony voters the way it once did. However, Anastasia has done incredibly well with both the Drama Desk and Outer Critic's Circle nods and will give one of these shows a run for their money.

Nominees: Come From Away; Dear Evan Hansen; Groundhog Day; Natasha, Pierre, and the Great Comet of 1812; War Paint
Wildcard: Anastasia

Best Play

The company of Sweat.

This category is more robust than usual, and in a heartening trend most of the major contenders are new American plays (in the past, British imports have dominated this category). Between its strong reviews, current relevance, and recent Pulitzer Prize win, I have to imagine Lynne Nottage's Sweat is all but guaranteed a nomination. I also can't imagine Tony voters passing up the chance to nominate the Broadway debut of fellow Pulitzer-winning playwright and industry stalwart Paula Vogel for her provocative Indecent. And the fact based political thriller Oslo seems practically designed to court Tony voters, which coupled with great reviews makes it a virtual lock as well.

That leaves 1-2 slots open depending on how close the vote tallies are; category expansions are caused by mathematically close races as opposed to a conscious decision by Tony nominators. I actually think the premature closing of Joshua Harmon's Significant Other may help its chances. As the saying goes, absence makes the heart grow fonder, and Tony voters might realize they liked the well-realized contemporary drama more than critical notices would lead you to believe. There is also some good early buzz on A Doll's House: Part 2, though one could argue that the latter is opening too late in the season to really establish itself in the minds of voters. Then again Heisenberg, its most likely competition, has the exact opposite problem, as the two-hander opened and closed ages ago. I'm also not ready to completely rule out a surprise showing by dark horse candidate The Play That Goes Wrong, as it would be very out of character for the typically anglophile Tony voters to only nominate American plays.

Nominees: Indecent, Oslo, Significant Other, Sweat
Wildcard: Heisenberg

Best Musical Revival

Bette Midler leads the cast of Hello, Dolly!

Unlike last year's stellar crop of musical revivals, this season's contenders are a lot less artistically interesting. Not only are the revivals primarily of 80s and 90s megamusicals, which have their guilty pleasures but are hardly the pinnacle of the musical form, but both Cats and Miss Saigon remain so married to their spectacle-oriented original concepts that it can sometimes feel like Broadway is caught in a time warp. Alternatively, Sunset Boulevard has ditched the lavish physical production but retained Tony-winning star Glenn Close, again keeping the ties to the original Broadway mounting front and center.

All of that said, it must also be acknowledged that Close is absolutely sensational, both justifying Sunset's return and ensuring its inclusion among this year's Best Musical Revival nominees. The show will surely be joined by Lincoln Center's much lauded (although not by me) fall mounting of William Finn's Falsettos. And while Bette Midler's mere presence was enough to make Hello, Dolly a smash hit before the first preview, let's not forget that both the production and its star received across the board raves, making its nomination all but assured. And since the producers of the Jake Gyllenhall-led Sunday in the Park with George removed their revival from Tony consideration, that leaves one open slot which will almost certainly go to Miss Saigon, which at least pretends to be more than a direct remounting of the original.

Nominees: Falsettos; Hello, Dolly!; Miss Saigon; Sunset Boulevard
Wildcard: Cats

Best Play Revival

The cast of the Broadway revival of August Wilson's Jitney.

In most seasons, the fall produces the brunt of play revivals, presumably because that's when the movie stars needed to guarantee financing/ticket sales are usually free. But in a surprising change of pace, it looks like the majority of nominees in this category will come from the second half of the season. Manhattan Theatre Club is looking likely to be double nominated this year thanks to its critically acclaimed productions of August Wilson's Jitney and Lillian Hellman's The Little Foxes; I challenge anyone to find a negative word written about either show. The Kevin Kline led Present Laughter also seems well positioned for a nomination, as does the Allison Janney fronted Six Degrees of Separation. That's technically a full category right there, although the much-lauded Front Page from the fall seems destined to make the cut as well. The only show that seems at all likely to disrupt this quintet is Roundabout's starry mounting of The Price, which could take the place of the oft-revived Present Laughter if enough Tony nominators have tired of seeing Noel Coward's comedy trotted out every decade or so.

Nominees: The Front Page, Jitney, The Little Foxes, Present Laughter, Six Degrees of Separation
Wildcard: The Price


Agree with my predictions? Think I'm wildly off base? Let me know in the comments, and check back Sunday for my predictions for the major acting races!