2016 Tony Award Predictions: Best Featured Actor

The Tony Awards are less than 2 weeks away, and my annual prediction articles have now reached what I like to call the Big 12 categories. The 8 acting and 4 production races always seem to be the most discussed and debated of any Tony season, possibly because these awards have the greatest affect on the business of Broadway going forward. A Best Musical or Best Play winner often ends up with a much longer life on both Broadway and beyond than it might otherwise have had, and performers who are recognized with Tony wins generally (but not always) have access to a greater range of options and opportunities.

Today we'll look at the Featured Actor races, whose eclectic mix of performances often make for some of the hardest to predict races in any given season. As always, I will do my best to determine who is most likely to win, and if that person doesn't match up with who I think is the most deserving I will be sure to point it out in my analysis. Let's get on with the show!

Warning: Occasional snark and plenty of speculation to follow.

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Reed Birney as patriarch Eric Blake in the much praised, Pulitzer Prize finalist The Humans.

Nominees: Reed Birney, The Humans; Bill Camp, The Crucible; David Furr, Noises Off; Richard Goulding, King Charles III; Michael Shannon, Long Day's Journey Into Night

I must admit I'm working primarily off of speculation here, as I haven't seen the majority of nominees in this category. I think Richard Goulding has the biggest set of obstacles to overcome, as he wasn't on many people's radar prior to the nominations being announced and his show has been closed the longest. Being in a closed show also greatly hurts the chances of Noises Off's David Furr, although I think enough Tony voters have strong impressions of that first rate revival to keep Furr in the conversation. Meanwhile, Bill Camp has the advantage of being in a currently running production, and although The Crucible doesn't have the most passionate supporters, producer Scott Rudin has major influence within the industry and has helped long shot nominees score wins in the past.

But Rudin is also behind The Humans, a play industry insiders are much more excited about. It is also a rare Rudin production to not be centered around a Hollywood star or celebrity author, which makes me believe it's a passion project and something he will campaign for heavily. The Humans also marks the latest in a string of critically acclaimed performances for previous nominee Reed Birney, a beloved character actor whose profile continues to rise, making him the most likely winner. But one cannot discount Michael Shannon's extraordinary performance in Roundabout's acclaimed Long Day's Journey Into Night, with the film star creating probably the most nuanced and fascinating performance of that show's four leads. If Birney loses (unlikely, but possible), I expect it to be to Shannon.

Will & Should Win: Reed Birney, The Humans

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Daveed Diggs (left) and Lin-Manuel Miranda in Hamilton.

Nominees: Daveed Diggs, Hamilton; Brandon Victor Dixon, Shuffle Along; Christopher Fitzgerald, Waitress; Jonathan Groff, Hamilton; Christopher Jackson, Hamilton

Simple math proves this category is likely to go to someone from Hamilton, as three out of the five nominees come from that hip-hop musical juggernaut. Even with the possibility of vote splitting, Daveed Diggs, Jonathan Groff, and Christopher Jackson have such a head start in this race I can't imagine Brandon Victor Dixon or Christopher Fitzgerald snatching the award from them. I personally don't quite understand what about Dixon's performance in Shuffle Along was deemed nomination-worthy over his costars (was it just his character's proximity to Audra McDonald, the show's clear star?), and think he is the least likely winner. And while I sincerely hope hardworking, consistently hilarious three-time nominee Fitzgerald wins a Tony Award at some point in his career, it just doesn't feel like this is his year.

Jonathan Groff was certainly memorable in his short but sweet turn as King George in Hamilton, and many other performers have won featured Tonys for similarly small amounts of stage time. But compared to Daveed Diggs and Christopher Jackson, who both have huge roles that almost rival the show's leads in terms of stage time and complexity, it's very hard to argue that Groff is the most deserving winner. And while I certainly enjoyed Jackson's take on George Washington, Daveed Diggs' dual roles as Marquis de Lafayette and Thomas Jefferson have screamed Tony Award since the show first premiered Off-Broadway last year. Diggs nails every second of his performance, a dynamic tour de force that you can't take your eyes off of. He is the clear frontrunner here, and I will be shocked if he doesn't win on June 12th.

Will & Should Win: Daveed Diggs, Hamilton

In our next installment it's the featured actresses' turn to shine, but until then you can catch up on the rest of my 2016 Tony coverage by clicking the links below. And don't forget to share your thoughts in the comments!

2016 Tony Nominations React

Best Book and Score

Best Direction and Choreography

2016 Tony Award Predictions: Direction and Choreography

Tony season is upon us, and all of Broadway is buzzing with excitement in preparation for the industry's big night. While speculation on winners seems more muted this year due to the presumed dominance of Hamilton, the fact of the matter is we had a very strong season with a lot of Tony-worthy work. Combined with Tony voters' recent penchant for spreading the wealth (you have to go back to the 2012 ceremony to find a single production that took home more than 5 awards), it's entirely possible Lin-Manuel Miranda's juggernaut loses a couple races. Not to mention the play categories, which Hamilton can't win and are fairly competitive this year.

As always, I will do my best to predict the winners in the direction, production, and acting categories. And since who will win does not always match up with who deserves to win, I will make sure to point out any discrepancies in my analysis.

Warning: Occasional snark and plenty of speculation to follow.

Best Direction of a Play

Mark Strong (center) and the cast of A View from the Bridge.

Nominees: Rupert Gould, King Charles III; Jonathan Kent, Long Day's Journey Into Night; Joe Mantello, The Humans; Liesl Tommy, Eclipsed; Ivo Van Hove, A View from the Bridge

It's an incredibly competitive season when it comes to the directing races, and although it sounds cliche this year it truly is an honor just to be nominated. Tony voters don't have an easy decision to make when it comes to Best Direction of a Play, as this season in particular saw a number of bold directorial concepts driving some of the best reviewed works of the season.

I am a bit puzzled by Jonathan Kent's inclusion here, as his directorial choices for Long Day's Journey Into Night were at the heart of what didn't work for me in that revival (namely, the inconsistent acting styles and poorly conceived blocking). I think he can be ruled out of the running, as can Rupert Gould, mostly due to the fact that King Charles III has been closed long enough it appears to have faded from most people's memory. Liesl Tommy has done some absolutely lovely and subtle work on Eclipsed, but I fear she probably didn't put enough of her own personal stamp on the show to win, because whether it's fair or not the Tonys have a tendency to recognize flashier nominees. 

Which would also seem to rule out two-time Tony-winner Joe Mantello for the understated The Humans, but that production is one of the best reviewed plays of the season and a win for Mantello could be viewed as acknowledge of his work on it and the well respected Blackbird. There are few directors who can coax honest, complex performances out of their actors like Mantello, an exceedingly rare skill everyone in the industry recognizes and admires. But I ultimately think Tony voters will reward avante garde director Ivo van Hove, who afters years of working abroad and Off-Broadway burst onto the Great White Way this season with two incredibly well received revivals of Arthur Miller classics. Giving van Hove the prize allows voters to recognize the work he's done on both A View from the Bridge and the currently running The Crucible, the culmination of a season of boundary pushing work from the Belgian director.

Will & Should Win: Ivan van Hove, A View from the Bridge

Best Director of a Musical

The cast of the little musical that could, Hamilton.

Nominees: Michael Arden, Spring Awakening; John Doyle, The Color Purple; Scott Ellis, She Loves Me; Thomas Kail, Hamilton; George C. Wolfe, Shuffle Along

Wow. The strength of this year's Best Director of a Musical nominees is just astounding. While many people expect Thomas Kail to take this award for his fascinating, fluid staging of Broadway's latest blockbuster, I suspect the actual vote will be a lot closer than expected, and if there's going to be a surprise on Tony night this category might be it. 

Scott Ellis' production of She Loves Me is practically perfect, one of the best representations of that musical gem we're ever likely to see, and his light but assured hand was essential in achieving that level of quality. John Doyle completely reconceived The Color Purple from the ground up, reclaiming it in the eyes of many critics who were underwhelmed by the original production. I have a couple of nitpicks with Doyle's directorial choices, but overall it is an outstanding production that could not have happened without him. And I'm even more impressed with Michael Arden's work on Spring Awakening; his use of American Sign Language didn't feel like a gimmick, but actually added new layers of meaning and beauty to a piece which became as much about the alienation of the deaf characters from the rest of society as it did about angsty teens singing rock songs.

But in the end, I do think Hamilton will prevail, and it's hard to argue with that outcome. The show is one of the single most electrifying evenings of theatre I've ever experienced, and the show's narrative clarity and theatrical effectiveness comes as much from Kail's staging as it does from Lin-Manuel Miranda's words and music.

Will & Should Win: Thomas Kail, Hamilton

Special Shout Out: Scott Ellis, She Loves Me

Best Choreography

Leslie Odom, Jr. and the cast of Hamilton performing "The Room Where It Happens."

Nominees: Andy Blankenbeuhler, Hamilton; Savion Glover, Shuffle Along; Hofesh Shechter, Fiddler on the Roof; Randy Skinner, Dames at Sea; Sergio Trujillo, On Your Feet

Can I just say how refreshing it is to see such strong nominees in this category? There was a period a few years ago where we were lucky if one musical a season produced Tony-worthy choreography, but ever since Newsies there has been a steady increase in the number of dance heavy shows on Broadway and I couldn't be happier. All of the nominated choreographers have distinctive, exciting styles that created some of the most memorable production numbers of the season.

That said, this is really a two horse race between Andy Blankenbeuhler and Savion Glover, as both men have created a bevy of inventive, pulse pounding routines for their respective shows. Glover's tap choreography is integral to almost all of the most effective moments in Shuffle Along, including the roof raising opening number and the edge of your seat tap battle in the middle of the show's second act. Blankenbeuhler's dancers barely stop moving throughout the entirety of Hamilton's three hour runtime, and for the first time in the previous Tony-winner's career I didn't find the effect distracting. I also adored his lyrical, abstract take on the show's climatic duel between Hamilton and Burr, one of the most beautiful and moving moments in the entire show. As both Blankenbeuhler and Glover already have Tony Awards it's hard to say either one is due, and while I have a *slight* preference for Glover's tap dancing I suspect Hamilton's momentum will bring Blankenbeuhler his second career win.

Will Win: Andy Blankenbeuhler, Hamilton

Should Win: Savior Glover, Shuffle Along

Let me know who you're rooting for in the comments, and be sure to check back soon for further Tony predictions. In the meantime, don't forget to check out my previous commentary below:

Best Book and Score

2016 Tony Award Predictions: Book and Score

The 2016 Tony Awards are less than 3 weeks away, which means it's time for me to get cracking on my annual prediction articles. Many people in the industry are assuming Hamilton will sweep the awards, and while I expect the hip-hop musical to do extremely well on June 12th I think several of the big categories are a lot more competitive than you might expect.

As I do every year, I will be predicting the winner in all of the non-design categories, discussing the pros and cons of each nominee before making my official choice. However, since who will win is an entirely separate concept from who I think should win, whenever those two artists don't line up I will be sure to mention it in my analysis. With that said, let's start out easy and look at two categories that feel like foregone conclusions at this point, Best Book and Best Score.

Warning: Occasional snark and plenty of speculation to follow.

Best Book of a Musical

Lin-Manuel Miranda and the cast of Hamilton

Nominees: Steve Martin, Bright Star; Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton; Julian Fellowes, School of Rock; George C. Wolfe, Shuffle Along

There's a bit of misunderstanding among many theatre fans about what a musical book writer actually does, to the point where the head of the Dramatist Guild actually felt the need to write in to the New York Times to clarify. Many people equate a musical's book with its spoken dialogue, and while that is a part of it a musical's book is really its structure, which is why through-composed works like Rent, Les Miserables, and a little show called Hamilton all have them. And Lin-Manuel Miranda's book for Hamilton is nothing short of genius, effortlessly balancing the sweep of the historical narrative with the emotional journeys of the story's various characters. Every single principle and supporting character has a narrative arc, and they are so deftly handled that you never have trouble tracking the various storylines even when a character disappear for long stretches of time. 

I haven't seen all of the nominees in this category, but I have trouble imagining any of them carrying off the immense difficulty of such a task with the ease and finesse of Miranda (indeed, George C. Wolfe's ambitious but unwieldy book causes a lot of Shuffle Along's more glaring problems). Broadway's favorite writer/composer/performer has this one in the bag.

Will & Should Win: Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton

Best Score

Tony nominees Christopher Jackson and Lin-Manuel Miranda as George Washington and Alexander Hamilton in Hamilton.

Nominees: Steve Martin & Edie Brickell, Bright Star; Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton; Andrew Lloyd Webber & Glenn Slater, School of Rock; Sara Bareilles, Waitress

There are some incredibly worthy nominees in this category, and in a year without a juggernaut like Hamilton any one of them could be a frontrunner to actually win. Bright Star didn't get amazing reviews, but even the naysayers all singled out the bluegrass score as a highlight. School of Rock has been hailed as a return to form for Sir Andrew Lloyd Webber, who love him or hate him has proven repeatedly that he knows how to write hummable, instantly recognizable melodies. And Sara Bareilles' brand of story-driven pop rock always seemed like a natural fit for the world of musical theatre, so it's no surprise to see the Broadway neophyte represented here.

But Hamilton is another beast entirely. Anyone who has heard the cast album can tell you it is compulsively listenable, drawing you in the way few shows can. Lin-Manuel Miranda took musical styles not normally associated with Broadway and made them insanely theatrical, showing a melodic and rhythmic genius that In the Heights only hinted at. The breadth of the score is astounding, from the giddy girl-group excitement of "The Schuyler Sisters" to the Brit pop of "You'll Be Back" to the soulful R&B influenced "Satisfied," a song which may be the most bravura example of musical theatre composition from the past ten years. The endlessly inventive score sees US Cabinet members debating via rapid fire rapping and secret government meetings backed by a pounding club beat, all wrapped up in some of the most brilliant lyrics to grace the Broadway stage. The score reveals new layers upon each hearing, be it a sly lyrical reference to Gilbert and Sullivan or a melodic motif that appears in an unexpected bit of underscoring, making Miranda the clear favorite here.

Will & Should Win: Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton

Agree? Disagree? Let me know in the comments, and check back throughout the next few weeks for more Tony predictions.

A Confused but Intriguing Musical History Lesson

Review: Shuffle Along

Brandon Victor Dixon as Eubie Blake and Audra McDonald as Lottie Gee in Shuffle Along.

Shuffle Along, Or The Making of the Musical Sensation of 1921 and All That Followed is an unwieldy title for an unwieldy musical. Like its title, Shuffle Along is both innately intriguing and a tad too long-winded to wrap your head around. It is simultaneously a character-driven backstage drama, a sprawling historical panoply about the history of black entertainment, and a metatheatrical rumination on the transient nature of fame and influence. And yet it isn't really any of those things, and that tonal disparity is what ultimately stops Shuffle Along and its hugely talented cast and creative team from achieving the success you'd expect.

The original Shuffle Along is remembered as little more than a footnote in musical theatre history, primarily famous for being the first Broadway musical written, produced, and starring people of color. Tony-winning writer/director George C. Wolfe obviously wants to change that, having turned his attention towards the people behind the show's runaway success (it ran for almost 500 performances at a time when most shows struggled to reach 100). Wolfe has kept most of the original Noble Sissle and Eubie Blake songs, but has written an entirely new libretto shifts the focus behind the scenes of Shuffle Along's rocky road to Broadway, examining how its success impacted the lives of the many strong personalities involved in its creation.

Wolfe's interests are many and varied, and while that certainly keeps the show engaging it doesn't always keep it coherent. Wolfe can't decide whether he wants the show to function as an elaborately staged history lesson or a more traditional book musical, one which hits many of the same beats as countless backstage tales before it. Try as he might, the gifted dramatist can't have things both ways, resulting in a show with some great moments and searing one-liners but which lacks a unifying structural or thematic element to tie the disparate pieces together. Wolfe also hasn't quite covered up the holes left by the many cuts made during the show's extended preview period, where it originally clocked in at over 3 hours. It now lasts a more manageable 2 hours 45 minutes, but there are multiple instances where ideas or scenes seem underdeveloped or artificially shortened.

While Wolfe the Writer hasn't quite ironed out all of Shuffle Along's kinks, Wolfe the Director has so expertly staged what's there that you only realize the show doesn't quite track in hindsight. It opens on a bare stage as the evening's players slowly appear, materializing out of the mists of history to tell their story; it almost suggests the entire evening takes place in some kind of metatheatrical dreamscape, an interesting theatrical conceit that is largely dropped during the middle section only to reappear towards the finale. Santo Loquasto's many set pieces travel on and off the stage at a dizzying pace, with some scenes taking place in front of fully realized environments and others only suggested by the simplest piece of furniture. Wolfe choreographs this dance of performers and scenery like the master he is, and individually every moment of the show works on a guttural level. Only when you try to figure out how the previous moment relates to the one that follows do the cracks and leaps in logic start to show.

Whenever things start to move beyond Wolfe's ability to maintain interest, he wisely lets Tony-winning tap legend Savion Glover's choreography take over. Glover's routines are dynamic and thrilling, innately theatrical in their surprising and precise rhythms. His ability to deploy dancers on a stage is awe-inspiring, with ever-shifting formations of talented tappers commanding both your attention and respect. Glover's choreography for the opening "Broadway Blues" sets a bar the rest of the show never quite clears, although it comes awfully close during the train station montage "Pennsylvania Graveyard Shuffle" and the "Rang Tang/Chocolate Dandies" dance battle.

Shuffle Along also features the starriest collection of Tony-winning and nominated performers Broadway has seen in quite some time, an embarrassment of riches all given their time in the spotlight. Headlining the cast is six time Tony Award-winner Audra McDonald as the show-within-a-show's leading lady Lottie Gee, and as always the theatrical legend delivers a sensational performance. This is a decidedly different McDonald than we've seen during her past few Broadway outings, allowing the acclaimed actress an all-too-rare chance to show her lighter side and flex her comedic muscles. She also gets the chance to show off every color imaginable in her heaven-sent soprano, from her toe-tapping "(I'm Just) Wild About Harry" to a jazzy rendition of the title song to an exquisitely sung and utterly heartbreaking "Memories of You." As with everything, McDonald applies herself 110% here, creating yet another richly realized and utterly believable performance.

No one else gets the same amount of stage time as McDonald, but that doesn't stop the many supporting players from making strong impressions. Past Tony nominees Brandon Victor Dixon and Joshua Henry make for a fine vaudeville pair as composers Eubie Blake and Noble Sissle, with Henry in particular doing his best work to date as the proud, dignified Sissle. Meanwhile, Tony winners Brian Stokes Mitchell and Billy Porter play bookwriters F.E. Miller and Aubrey Lyles with panache. Mitchell's easygoing command of the stage acts as a nice counterbalance to the antics of the other three, leading the rousing a cappella "Swing Along" in the middle of the first act. Porter's flamboyant performance recalls a bit more of his Lola from Kinky Boots than is strictly necessary - that particular brand of fierceness comes across as anachronistic here - but the actor is certainly charismatic and has the most overtly showstopping number with his "Low Down Blues." And relative newcomer Adrienne Warren makes quite the impression in the dual roles of the outlandish Gertrude Saunders and future star Florence Mills, especially with her transfixing performance as the later discovers her own star power under Lottie's tutelage.

As this Shuffle Along so deftly illustrates, creating a Broadway show has always been hard work, and given the increasing sophistication of the medium it's probably even harder today than it was back in 1921. So in many ways the shortcomings of George C. Wolfe's book are understandable, and this production shows the kind of unadulterated ambition that should be encouraged and applauded even when it doesn't fully succeed. A messy, interesting show like Shuffle Along is preferable to a well executed bland one, and seeing so much Tony-worthy talent on one stage is a rare opportunity that should definitely be savored. The show may not quite equal the most famous works of the accomplished cast, but with artists of this caliber even their less successful efforts are still mighty fine.

Grief in the Time of Twitter

Review: Dear Evan Hansen

Ben Platt (center) and the cast of Dear Evan Hansen

One of the best musicals of the year is playing just Off-Broadway on West 43rd Street, where Dear Evan Hansen recently opened at the Second Stage Theatre. Featuring a top-notch score by Tony-nominated songwriters Benj Pasek and Justin Paul along with a host of dynamic performances, Evan Hansen is the definition of a contemporary musical, tackling the concerns and issues arising from our increasingly digital society with wit and deep psychological insight.

The story follows the titular Evan Hansen, an awkward, lonely teen starting his senior year of high school with a broken wrist and very few friends. On the first day of school, a series of misunderstandings leads others to assume Evan is friends with another loner, Connor Murphy, a troubled youth who takes his own life just a few days later. With Connor's family turning to Evan for comfort, the misunderstanding steadily grows thanks to the power of social media and Evan's own questionable choices.

At the heart of Steven Levenson's book is a mature, probing look at grief and how tragedies bind us together in the age of social media and viral videos. The show is not about what led Connor to take his own life (an explanation is never provided or even hinted at), but rather about how those left behind process their grief. It also examines the communal aspects of the way we mourn, and asks how much of the professed sadness on social media stems from a desire to belong to some kind of community, even one bound together by tragedy. Levenson's layered writing manages to tackle these issues in a way that feels both specific and universal, all while keeping the show's action rooted in the fully realized characters at the heart of the story.

Augmenting the emotional exploration of the piece immensely is Pasek and Paul's fantastic pop-rock score, a marvel of modern musical theatre songwriting that packs in all the vocal tricks associated with contemporary music (sky high belting, complex riffs, and tight harmonies) without ever feeling flashy or showy. For all of the pair's giddy musical invention, they ensure that every note and syllable furthers the story and characters, with every song serving multiple functions. Evan's soaring "For Forever" paints a beautiful picture of a (fictional) summer day, setting into motion the story's central deception while simultaneously allowing him to express his innermost desires, all carried off using one of the catchiest melodic hooks of the past few seasons. This kind of complex writing makes every musical number a treat, and the lush orchestrations by Alex Lacamoire make the small 8-person band sound just as rich as a pit twice the size.

The cast is first rate, anchored by Ben Platt's searing portrayal of the lonely and lost Evan Hansen. Known primarily for comedic roles in films like Pitch Perfect and musicals like The Book of Mormon, Platt reveals unending wells of deeply felt emotion over the course of the evening. Unafraid of being vulnerable, by the time Platt sings his character's climatic "Words Fail" both he and the audience are reduced to a blubbering mess, the kind of shared catharsis that occurs only when an actor lays their entire soul bare onstage. Yet Platt is also laugh-out-loud funny, mining Levenson's book for all its humor and providing an excellent comedic balance to the show's gut-wrenching pathos. If Platt occasionally overdoes his character's physical tics, the rest of his performance is so compelling you're unlikely to care.

Rachel Bay Jones is fantastic as Evan's mother Heidi, showing us every facet of a single mother struggling "without a roadmap" to be the best parent she can be to her pride and joy. Jones' instantly accessible persona draws you in while her extremely expressive face conveys a wealth of conflicting emotions, all of which finally bubble to the surface during "Good For You." Just a few scenes later, the supremely gifted actress is both heartwarming and quietly devastating during "So Big/So Small," one of the most touching musical moments of the season.

Both Jennifer Laura Thompson and John Dossett are excellent as Connor's parents, offering very different but entirely captivating portrayals of grief. Laura Dreyfuss offers what initially appears to be a generic take on Connor's younger sister, but by the time she gets to her first big solo she reveals a convincingly complex take on someone who both loathes and desperately misses her big brother. And although Mike Faist doesn't get a lot of time onstage as the real Connor Murphy, the character returns multiple times in other people's memories, and Faist's ability to slightly alter his characterization to reflect how each character remembers him is astounding.

Director Michael Greif uses many of the same tricks he employed in past shows like Rent, If/Then, and the Pulitzer Prize-winning Next to Normal, the show Dear Evan Hansen is most obviously inspired by. While this can occasionally make his staging feel derivative, there's no denying that those tricks work, and few directors are better at making a mostly bare stage interesting to look at than Greif. He has also guided his actors to career-defining performances, making for one of the tightest onstage ensembles since, well, Next to Normal.

For all its dark overtones, Dear Evan Hansen proves to be an ultimately uplifting and deeply satisfying piece of theatre, Already more accomplished than the majority of big Broadway offerings this season, the show continues the boundary-pushing experimentation of musicals like Fun Home and the megahit Hamilton, both of which originated Off-Broadway before making their much-acclaimed Main Stem bows. Since producers have yet to announce any transfer plans for this more than deserving show, everyone should rush to see this first rate musical drama while they still can.

2016 Tony Nominations React

Former Book of Mormon costars Nikki M. James and Andrew Rannells announce the 2016 Tony Award nominees.

They're here! The 2016 Tony Award nominations have been announced, and now the awards season can begin in earnest (you can view a full list of the nominees here). We'll get to my reactions to yesterday's news in a moment, but first it's time to see how I did with my annual predictions.

Below are the actual nominees in the Big 12 categories I predicted over the past couple of weeks. Nominees with an asterisk are ones I correctly prediction; if the asterisk is in parentheses, that means I listed the nominee as a wildcard pick but not an official choice.

Best Musical
Bright Star
Hamilton*
School of Rock(*)
Shuffle Along*
Waitress*

Best Play
Eclipsed*
The Father*
The Humans*
King Charles III*

Best Musical Revival
The Color Purple*
Fiddler on the Roof*
She Loves Me*
Spring Awakening*

Best Play Revival
Blackbird*
The Crucible*
Long Day's Journey Into Night*
Noises Off*
A View from the Bridge*

Best Actor in a Musical
Alex Brightman, School of Rock*
Danny Burstein, Fiddler on the Roof*
Zachary Levi, She Loves Me(*)
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton*
Leslie Odom, Jr., Hamilton*

Best Actor in a Play
Gabriel Byrne, Long Day's Journey Into Night*
Jeff Daniels, Blackbird*
Frank Langella, The Father*
Tim Pigott-Smith, King Charles III*
Mark Strong, A View from the Bridge*

Best Actress in a Musical
Laura Benanti, She Loves Me*
Carmen Cusack, Bright Star(*)
Cynthia Erivo, The Color Purple*
Jessie Mueller, Waitress*
Phillipa Soo, Hamilton*

Best Actress in a Play
Jessica Lange, Long Day's Journey Into Night*
Laurie Metcalf, Misery
Lupita Nyong'o, Eclipsed*
Sophie Okonedo, The Crucible
Michelle Williams, Blackbird*

Best Featured Actor in a Musical
Daveed Diggs, Hamilton*
Brandon Victor Dixon, Shuffle Along 
Christopher Fitzgerald, Waitress*
Jonathan Groff, Hamilton*
Christopher Jackson, Hamilton

Best Featured Actor in a Play
Reed Birney, The Humans*
Bill Camp, The Crucible
David Furr, Noises Off*
Richard Goulding, King Charles III 
Michael Shannon, Long Day's Journey Into Night*

Best Featured Actress in a Musical
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple*
Renée Elise Goldsberry, Hamilton*
Jane Krakowski, She Loves Me*
Jennifer Simard, Disaster!
Adrienne Warren, Shuffle Along

Best Featured Actress in a Play
Pascale Armand, Eclipsed*
Megan Hilty, Noises Off*
Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans
Andrea Martin, Noises Off*
Saycon Sengbloh, Eclipsed*

For those keeping score at home, I correctly predicted 45 out of 58 nominees, or 78%. When wildcard picks that made the cut are taken into account, that increases to 48 out of 58 correct predictions, or 83%. This is slightly better than my 77% success rate last year when wildcards were taken into account.

I'm pretty proud of these results. I had a 100% accuracy rating in the Best Play, Best Musical Revival, Best Play Revival, and Best Actor in a Play categories, and wildcard picks allow me to add Best Actor and Actress in a Musical to that group. I'm a little mad at myself for missing Featured Actress in a Play thanks to my own oversight; I was going to include Jayne Houdyshell in my Best Actress predictions until I realized she wasn't eligible, and made a mental note to put her in Featured Actress but forgot.

When it comes to surprises in this year's nominees, there are a few big ones. I would say the most shocking is the strong showing of Bright Star, which managed 5 overall nominations including high profile nods in the Best Musical and Best Actress in a Musical categories. The Steve Martin-penned, bluegrass-scored musical has been struggling at the box office since previews began, and I honestly had it pegged as being one of the first shows to post a closing notice after a poor showing this morning (that dubious honor unfortunately went to Disaster!). These nominations mean Bright Star's producers will surely keep things running through the Tony ceremony, and it may even be the start of the show's fortunes turning around.

I am honestly gobsmacked to see Audra McDonald excluded from the Best Actress in a Musical race. This is only the second time in her lengthy career that the most awarded performer in Tony history has failed to net at least a nomination in her eligible category. This is even more puzzling considering that Shuffle Along did very well overall, with 10 nominations spread throughout multiple categories.

It's also clear that Tony voters did not go for American Psycho as much as I thought they would. While I have heard the show is divisive, its strong showing in the other awards races tricked me into assuming it would make a much stronger showing here. We'll see if that has any affect on the show's box office over the next few months.

Some other noteworthy thoughts:

-Hamilton can add another record to its lengthy list of achievements. Thanks to multiple acting nods, it is now the most nominated show in Tony history with 16 total nominations, breaking the record jointly held by The Producers and Billy Elliot. If Hamilton manages to sweep the awards, it will have won a total of 13 statuettes, thereby also breaking The Producers' record for most Tony wins. I find this unlikely thanks to stiff competition in the acting categories, but it is possible!

-I am *thrilled* to see Zachary Levi make the cut in the Best Actor in a Musical race. He absolutely nailed his role in what is probably my second favorite production of the season (after Hamilton of course), and 110% deserves this nomination.

-There is obviously some close competition in the production categories, as the only way to force category expansions is by having very close votes during the nominations process. Since Best Musical, Best Musical Revival, and Best Play Revival all have one more than the minimum number of slots required, several shows must have been neck and neck.

-Overall I am extremely happy with these nominees. The only person I'm inclined to say was snubbed is Audra McDonald, who is excellent as always in Shuffle Along (review coming soon!), but having not seen all the nominated performances I cannot definitely say she was unfairly excluded from what is a very competitive category.

*Sidenote: I only consider someone having been "snubbed" if I can look at one of the nominated performers and honestly say I would exclude the nominee for the person who was overlooked.

Over the coming weeks, there will be plenty more Tony coverage here at Broadway, Etc., including my annual predictions of the winners. This is shaping up to be one of the most exciting, competitive seasons in recent memory even with the presumed dominance of Hamilton in the writing and production categories, and I can't wait to discuss it with all of you. Keep an eye on this space for more predictions and reviews as the countdown to June 12th has officially begun!

2016 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part III (Supporting Actor/Actress)

Tomorrow morning, we find out the people and productions that will compete for the 2016 Tony Awards. And as always, I am leading up to that day with plenty of blog coverage on who I think those lucky nominees will be. Using a combination of first hand experience, analysis of industry trends, and my gut feelings, I have already made my predictions for the production and lead actor/actress categories. Today, it's time to tackle some of the most wide open races around, the Featured Actor and Actress categories.

Prediction these nominees is always tricky, as almost anyone who sets foot on a Broadway stage is eligible. Past winners have run the gamut from dynamic one scene wonders like Andrea Martin in Pippin to people who are essentially secondary leads like Aladdin's James Monroe Iglehart. In general, more stagetime makes someone more competitive - they have more time to show range and make a lasting impression - and this year there are a slew of contenders in this category who do just that (including the entire casts of the highly praised The Humans and Noises Off). 

If any acting race is going to expand to a potential six or seven nominees, my gut tells me it will be one of these, which is why in addition to my official picks I will also be choosing one or more wildcard performers in each category, representing who I think is most likely to prompt an expansion or unseat one of my official picks. Now read on to see who I think should starting thinking about what they're going to wear to Broadway's biggest night!

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Daveed Diggs (left) with Hamilton creator and star Lin-Manuel Miranda during one of the show's exciting "Cabinet Battles."

This category is looking like a potential bloodbath, with a huge number of worthy performances up for consideration. This is one area where Hamilton's massive success may actually hurt it, as the various supporting players in that musical could cancel one another out. I have the best feeling about Daveed Diggs' scene-stealing duel roles as Marquis de Lafayette and Thomas Jefferson in the hip-hop musical, but can't rule out Jonathan Groff's extremely memorable comedic performance as the foppish King George III.

In a similar situation, there are four past Tony-nominees/winners eligible for this award among Shuffle Along's star-studded cast, and I wouldn't be surprised to see any of them among this year's nominees. Word on the street indicates that Billy Porter has the kind of standout moment that gets Tony voters' attention late in the show's second act, so I would say he is the most likely to make the cut. But Brian Stokes Mitchell is one of the most respected musical theatre actors in the business, and his status as something of an elder statesman also makes him extremely competitive.

Personally, I would love to see The Color Purple's Isaiah Johnson nominated for his nuanced portrayal of the villainous Mister, but there's so much buzz around the show's flashier female performances that he might get lost in the shuffle. She Loves Me counts past Tony favorites Gavin Creel and Michael McGrath among its cast members, both of whom are certainly possibilities, although given his Drama Desk and Theatre World Award nods young Nicholas Barasch may just be the most likely Tony nominee among the beloved revival's male supporting players. Waitress' Christopher Fitzgerald has also done extremely well when it comes to guild nominations, well enough that I expect him to be among the five (or more) names announced Tuesday morning.

Nominees

Nicholas Barasch, She Loves Me

Daveed Diggs, Hamilton

Christopher Fitzgerald, Waitress

Jonathan Groff, Hamilton

Billy Porter, Shuffle Along

Wildcard

Isaiah Johnson, The Color Purple

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Michael Shannon in Roundabout Theatre Company's revival of Long Day's Journey Into Night.

Given the number of one and two character plays that made it to Broadway this season, this category is surprisingly light on potential nominees. One actor certain to be among this year's contenders is The Human's Reed Birney, a performer most had assumed would be moved up to the Lead Actor category given the size of his role. Having such a large amount of material to work with gives him an advantage, as does his status as a highly respected character actor who continually does acclaimed work. I will also be surprised if Michael Shannon doesn't receive a nod for his heroic work in Long Day's Journey Into Night, with the mercurial actor showing an incredible amount of range over the course of that drama's four hour runtime.

Literally every male cast member of Roundabout's Noises Off is eligible in this category, and a case could be made for any of them. Jeremy Shamos and Rob McClure, both past Tony-nominees, were each fantastic in their roles, as was David Furr with his hilarious take on the play's bumlbing leading man. I'm almost tempted to say all three make the cut and call it a day, but given The Crucible's Bill Camp and Jim Norton scoring Drama Desk and Outer Critics Circle nominations respectively, that seems unwise. One of the Crucible men will probably make the cut, although which one is a complete toss up.

Nominees

Reed Birney, The Humans

David Furr, Noises Off

Jim Norton, The Crucible

Jeremy Shamos, Noises Off

Michael Shannon, Long Day's Journey Into Night

Wildcard

Rob McClure, Noises Off

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

Renee Elise Goldsberry as Angelica Schuyler, the "oldest and wittiest" of the Schuyler sisters in Hamilton.

Unlike their male counterparts, the noteworthy supporting actress performances in this year's musicals are more evenly distributed over multiple productions, placing fewer cast members in direct competition with one another. At this point, I would consider She Loves Me's Jane Krakowski and The Color Purple's Danielle Brooks sure things, as they have been on essentially every Featured Actress in a Musical list up until this point. I also consider Hamilton's Renee Elise Goldsberry a virtual lock for her absolutely transfixing performance as Angelica Schuyler; her performance of the song "Satisfied" alone is the stuff Tony-winning performances are made of, and the fact she has several other standout moments throughout the show just increases the strength of her case.

Personally, I would really really love to see Lesli Margherita nominated for her star-making performance in Dames at Sea, but I'm not sure people still remember that show even happened. Meanwhile, Waitress is one of the few shows to have multiple candidates in this category, and although neither Keala Settle or Kimiko Glenn have appeared on any end of season lists just yet I do suspect Tony voters will be smitten with the show and its performers.

This year may also see the first career Tony nomination for longtime New York City musical stalwart Andrea Burns, one of the few people in On Your Feet called upon to actually act as opposed to just being a charming personality. Sierra Boggess has always been more popular with audiences than with awards granting bodies, but the competition in this category is just thin enough that she might sneak in there for her work in School of Rock. And as the recipient of an Outer Critics Circle nod in this category (no small feat considering both Broadway and Off-Broadway performances are eligible), American Psycho's Helene York cannot be left out of the conversation.

Nominees

Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

Renee Elise Goldsberry, Hamilton

Jane Krakowski, She Loves Me

Lesli Margherita, Dames at Sea

Keala Settle, Waitress

Wildcards

Sierra Boggess, School of Rock
Helene York, American Psycho

Best Featured Actress in a Play

Megan Hilty as Brooke, the bad actress trying her best to be good in Noises Off.

In my opinion, the woman to beat in this category right now is Megan Hilty. Her side-splittingly funny work in Noises Off was the greatest thing about that top-notch revival, and her role in the show practically screamed Tony Award (Katie Finneran won the Tony for playing the same role in the show's last Broadway mounting). That is not to say Hilty is without competition, as Eclipsed presents three worthy challengers in the form of Saycon Sengbloh, Pascale Armand, and Zainab Jah. I personally found Sengbloh to be the most compelling, but Armand's deft transitions between high comedy and devastating emotional honesty could give her the edge in many people's eyes. Of course, this is all a conversation for another day, as I fully expect all three women to be nominated against Hilty.

The only real question here is which actress will get the fifth nomination slot. It could go to one of Hilty's costars, as both Andrea Martin and Kate Jennings Grant were pitch perfect in Roundabout's farce. I'd actually give the edge to Grant, whose slooooow crawl across the stage to remove an errant prop is one of the greatest bits of physical comedy I have ever seen, but I suspect if forced to choose the nominations committee will stick with Tony favorite Martin instead. One also can't rule out Judith Light for her work in Therese Raquin, especially since she is one of the very few performers to pull off back to back Tony wins (and in this same category, no less). If the Noises Off ladies cancel one another out, Light will definitely be the beneficiary.

Nominees

Pascale Armand, Eclipsed

Megan Hilty, Noises Off

Zainab Jah, Eclipsed

Andrea Martin, Noises Off

Saycon Sengbloh, Eclipsed

Wildcard

Judith Light, Therese Raquin

And that completes my predictions for this year's Tony nominees! We'll see how well I did come Tuesday morning, and in the meantime you can add your thoughts in the comments. Also, don't forget to check out the rest of my 2016 Tony coverage:

2016 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part I (Production)

2016 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part II (Actor/Actress)