2016 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part II (Best Actor/Actress)

We're only a few short days away from the announcement of the 2016 Tony nominees, and as has become tradition here at Broadway, Etc. I'm doing my best to predict who they'll be! Today we'll be discussing the starring turns from this past season most likely to compete for Broadway's highest honor, using my completely improvised combination of honest evaluation, understanding of theatre trends, and gut feelings.

This year also marks the first time the main acting categories can expand to a potential seven nominees each, provided there is a two- or three-way tie for the 5th slot. I find it highly unlikely that will happen, given the nominating committee's recent tendency towards the lowest possible number of nominees, but it is technically possible. So in each category I will be selecting wildcard picks, the performer or performers I think most likely to prompt a category expansion or unseat one of my official nominees.

So without further ado, let's get on with the show!

Best Actor in a Musical

Danny Burstein and the company of Fiddler on the Roof.

I have gone on record with my belief that Danny Burstein is one of our most gifted character actors, and the fact he has yet to win a Tony Award despite five career nominations is borderline criminal. His towering Tevye in Fiddler on the Roof will certainly net him nomination number six, and I sincerely hope this is the year he finally wins. He will surely be joined by American Psycho's Benjamin Walker, who has been roundly praised for his portrayal of serial killer Patrick Bateman and has been nominated for every other guild award thus far.

And, surprisingly enough, those are the only two actors I'm ready to call sure things in this category. Hamilton presents an interesting conundrum in that both Lin-Manuel Miranda and Leslie Odom, Jr. are eligible here, and no one seems quite sure if the committee will nominate one, both, or if they will effectively cancel one another out. In recent years we've seen several pairs of male leads pitted against one another (Andrew Rannells and Josh Gad in The Book of Mormon, Stark Sands and Billy Porter in Kinky Boots, and Jefferson Mays and Bryce Pinkham in Gentleman's Guide), so I am inclined to think both men make the cut. If only one of them is nominated, my money's on Odom, Jr.; quite frankly, he's the better actor, and the nominators may decide that the book and score nominations coming Miranda's way are more than enough praise for Broadway's resident genius.

With the men of Shuffle Along all being ruled Featured rather than Leading Actors, the way seems clear for School of Rock's breakout star Alex Brightman to score his first ever Tony nomination. We also cannot rule out Zachary Levi for his utterly charming work in She Loves Me, a show quickly proving to be an awards season favorite and in my opinion one of the best productions of the season.

Nominees: 
Alex Brightman, School of Rock
Danny Burstain, Fiddler on the Roof
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
Leslie Odom, Jr., Hamilton
Benjamin Walker, American Psycho

Wildcard:
Zachary Levi, She Loves Me (I would love love *love* to see him make the cut)

Best Actor in a Play

Frank Langella in Manhattan Theatre Club's production of The Father.

In this category, I think the closest we have to surefire nominees are a pair of British actors who were roundly praised for their performances last fall. Tim Pigott-Smith earned across the board raves for his portrayal of the title character in King Charles III, and Mark Strong was equally lauded for his work as Eddie Carbone in the avant garde revival of A View from the Bridge. When it comes to spring shows, Broadway treasure Frank Langella seems to have a seventh career nomination coming his way for his work in The Father, with the three-time Tony-winner routinely cited as the best thing about the production.

Other strong contenders include Gabriel Byrne for his quietly devastating work in Long Day's Journey Into Night and Jeff Daniels for his harrowing portrayal of a former child molester in Blackbird. I also wouldn't rule out Jesse Tyler Ferguson's work in Fully Committed; the one man show earned fairly good reviews, and as the sole performer in the show Ferguson obviously played a major role in its success. And while I suspect the show is too long gone to be remembered come nomination time, Fool for Love's Sam Rockwell did get a great deal of praise for his work in the Sam Shepard drama.

Nominees:
Gabriel Byrne, Long Day's Journey Into Night
Jeff Daniels, Blackbird
Frank Langella, The Father
Tim Pigott-Smith, King Charles III
Mark Strong, A View from the Bridge

Wildcard:
Sam Rockwell, Fool for Love

Best Actress in a Musical

Laura Benanti in Roundabout Theatre Company's revival of She Loves Me

As per usual, this is one of the most competitive categories around, although many of the nominees seem set at this point. Past winners Audra McDonald, Laura Benanti, and Jesse Mueller are virtually guaranteed nominations, with all three delivering superb performances in their respective shows. And Hamilton's Phillipa Soo, who I have been raving about since her work in Off-Broadway's Natasha, Pierre, & the Great Comet of 1812 a few seasons back, is doing phenomenal work as the mega-hit musical's emotional anchor; her talent combined with the massive buzz behind the show should be enough to secure her a spot among this year's nominees.

Which leaves only one guaranteed nomination spot left to be filled, and I can't imagine it going to anyone other than The Color Purple's Cynthia Erivo. The British actress is simply sensational as the put-upon Miss Celie, bringing the house down nightly with her soul-stirring rendition of the show's eleven o'clock anthem "I'm Here."

Honestly, all of these women seem like virtual locks, and I would be shocked to see any of them excluded in favor of someone else. Which is not to say there aren't other deserving nominees out there; Carmen Cusack has won herself a lot of fans with her work in the Steve Martin musical Bright Star, and Ana Villafane's spot-on channeling of a young Gloria Estefan has a lot to do with On Your Feet working as well as it does. If any of the leading performance categories were to expand beyond five nominees, it would likely be this one.

Nominees:
Laura Benanti, She Loves Me
Cynthia Erivo, The Color Purple
Audra McDonald, Shuffle Along
Jessie Mueller, Waitress
Phillipa Soo, Hamilton

Wildcard:
Carmen Cusack, Bright Star

Best Actress in a Play

Lupita Nyong'o in Eclipsed

This is the category I have least feel for, as despite the abundance of plays this season many of them have had male leads. One play that bucked that trend is Danai Gurira's all-female Eclipsed, and I expect its Oscar-winning star Lupita Nyong'o to be among the women who hear their name called Tuesday morning. I also have a very good feeling about last year's Best Featured Actress winner Annaleigh Ashford being nominated again for her turn as the titular pooch in this season's Sylvia. And while I personally had some reservations about Jessica Lange in Long Day's Journey Into Night (specifically the way she was directed), she is the one other name I would be genuinely surprised to see excluded from the Best Actress race.

As for the other two slots, they are really up for grabs. Past Best Actress winners Nina Arianda and Linda Lavin are certainly in contention for their work in Fool for Love and Our Mother's Brief Affair respectively. I would give the edge to Arianda, as while both shows have been closed for a while she has managed to at least get a couple of theatre guild nominations this season, while Lavin has been passed over. There's also Michelle Williams to consider for her work in Blackbird, and the very slight chance that Laurie Metcalfe is remembered for doing her best to save the critically panned Misery from itself.

Nominees:
Nina Arianda, Fool for Love
Annaleigh Ashford, Sylvia
Jessica Lange, Long Day's Journey Into Night
Lupita Nyong'o, Eclipsed
Michelle Williams, Blackbird

Wildcard: 
Linda Lavin, Our Mother's Brief Affair


Agree? Disagree? Let me know in the comments. Check back Tuesday afternoon to see how well I did, and in the meantime catch up on the rest of my Tony coverage:

2016 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part I (Production)

Big Budget and Spectacle Filled, Even When It Doesn't Need to Be

Review: Tuck Everlasting

Andrew Keenan-Bolger and Sarah Charles Lewis as Jesse Tuck and Winnie Foster in Tuck Everlasting.

Tony-winning director/choreographer Casey Nicholaw certainly seems to know what the people want. He is behind two of the biggest Broadway hits of the past 10 years, The Book of Mormon and Aladdin, and his most recent effort Something Rotten has proven surprisingly popular with both critics and audiences. All three shows share a similar tongue-in-cheek style of humor and an affinity for big song-and-dance production numbers that invoke the modernized spirit of Golden Age Broadway. So while it is admirable that Nicholaw has chosen to stretch himself with the decidedly more introspective and character-driven Tuck Everlasting, his natural instincts are at such odds with the material that this visually sumptuous but emotionally unsatisfying jumble of a show won't fully satisfy fans of either style of musical.

Based on the award-winning 1975 children's novel of the same name, Tuck Everlasting opens with 11-year-old Winnie Foster and her family still in mourning over the death of her father. Since the socially required yearlong mourning period hasn't passed, Winnie finds herself relegated to her house when all she wants to do is get out and explore the world. One night she sneaks out of the house and encounters Jesse Tuck, a 17-year-old boy whose family has a startling secret: they don't age. For the first time in a long time, Winnie feels invigorated by life thanks to her adventures with Jesse, and must contemplate her own mortality and whether or not to forfeit it for a chance to live with Jesse forever.

This fantastical premise opens the door for a surprisingly mature philosophical debate on the benefits and drawbacks of immortality, quite a large question for a family musical to tackle. Claudia Shear and Tim Federle's book handles the issue with grace, keeping the material accessible to children without completely shying away from the story's bittersweet overtones. Unfortunately their handling of plotting and characterization is much more rudimentary, giving us only the broadest sketches of the characters who inhabit this world.

In a better musical, Chris Miller and Nathan Tyson's score would pick up the narrative slack, but here too Tuck Everlasting disappoints. The pair definitely clearly have talent, as evidenced by a handful of charming songs including Winnie's signature "Good Girl Winnie Foster," but is inconsistently displayed here. Miller's melodies can get repetitive and Tyson's lyrics are filled with forced rhymes and poorly worded ideas, shortcomings that are all the more frustrating when other songs in the show lack these problems. Both the book and score can't seem to settle on just how sophisticated they'd like to be, as if scared that becoming too clever will alienate their young audience (this does not seem to be an issue for Tuck's next door neighbor, the exceedingly clever and long-running Matilda).

Muddying the waters even further is Nicholaw's direction, straining and ultimately failing to marry his love of big budget Broadway spectacle with the show's small scale tendencies. Nicholaw repeatedly has his chorus of dancers prancing around in the background during what should be intimate character moments, distracting from rather than adding to the principle casts' performances. And for the amount of choreography present, it is surprisingly generic, with the same handful of moves performed ad nauseam. The show works best when Nicholaw allows the material to speak for itself, such as the simple yet moving Act II ballad "The Wheel" or Winnie and Jesse's first meeting, "Top of the World."

The cast is all charming and likable, even when they are visibly struggling to elevate the material they've been given. Sarah Charles Lewis is quite the find as Winnie, poised and graceful with a pure and lovely voice. Hers is a wonderfully naturalistic, unlabored performance that you wish had informed the rest of the show, as she manages to impress without resorting to flashy tricks. Golden-voiced Andrew Keenan-Bolger is a great foil to Lewis as the forever young Jesse Tuck, matching her youthful energy every step of the way.

Carolee Carmello and Michael Park are underutilized as Ma and Pa Tuck, but do well with what little material they are given. And Robert Lenzi provides a refreshing jolt of mature energy as the elder Tuck son Miles, doing the best job of portraying the emotional strain living forever has taken on the family. As the villain of the story, Terrence Mann is certainly committed to his hammy portrayal, but it is such an odd performance that is never feels either threatening or entertaining, just bizarre.

The show's elaborate production design is certainly pretty to look at, with Walt Spangler's jewel-toned set providing an excellent amount of visual variety over the show's runtime. But while the multi-leveled versatility of Spangler's design is certainly impressive, it ultimately becomes distracting, with every new set piece adding to the production's bloated feeling. Gregg Barnes' costumes are similarly intriguing/off-putting, meticulously realized but bordering on overdesigned. The most successful design element is Kenneth Posner's lighting, which always enhances the storytelling rather than competing with it.

Given the number of high quality family musicals currently playing Broadway, it is difficult to justify the need for Tuck Everlasting. The show is serviceable, but nothing about it seems quite fully formed. No one on the creative team seems to know what type of show they want to make - should it be intimate and character driven or splashy and spectacle-laden? - and that tonal tension is apparent onstage. The youngest audiences members are certain not to care, but more discerning theatregoers can likely find a better family outing among Broadway's many musical offerings (the aforementioned Matilda and Aladdin both spring to mind).

An Admirable "Journey," If Not a Great One

Review: Long Day's Journey Into Night

John Gallagher, Jr. and Jessica Lange in the latest Broadway revival of Long Day's Journey Into Night.

There's always been something off about the Tyrones, the highly dysfunctional family unit at the center of Eugene O'Neill's Pulitzer Prize-winning masterpiece Long Day's Journey Into Night. Slowly learning the many ways in which the Tyrone family isn't what it seems is one of the drama's chief pleasures, with each new revelation forcing you to reconsider your feelings about the four deeply damaged characters onstage. But in the Roundabout Theatre Company's current revival of this American classic, something is even more off than usual, and it holds this fine production back from the transcendent heights it so desperately wants to achieve.

The cast of stage and screen veterans assembled here certainly dives into their meaty roles with abandon, with each cast member offering a perfectly valid and often fascinating take on their member of the Tyrone clan. Yet these performances don't quite stylistically mesh with one another, so at times it feels like four separate productions occurring simultaneously rather than one seamless whole. Whether this is a fault in casting or direction is up for debate, but it is a noticeable issue which distracts from the impressive acting of the cast.

As the family patriarch James, Gabriel Byrne is wonderfully understated, convincingly reserved and world weary from a life full of regret and emotional turmoil. Byrne does an excellent job of using the character's Irish bluster to hide his true insecurities, and his deeply expressive eyes make it clear that every insult and accusation hurled his way stings even though James rarely vocalizes his hurt. His is an all-too-real remorse that is quietly devastating, anchoring the showier performances around him with genuine human gravitas.

Jessica Lange is often captivating as the alternatively fragile and ferocious matriarch Mary, and is particularly effective in the scenes where the character rapidly shifts from one emotional extreme to another. Lange makes the character's repeated utterance of "I don't know what you're talking about" everything from the heartbreaking possible onset of senility to a bone chilling challenge to anyone who dares question her sincerity. You're never quite sure how conscious her denial of the problems in her life is, and it makes for a fascinating character study. Yet for all she does right, Lange sometimes feels out of place; you get the feeling her Mary would work even better in a production where the other actors matched her particular style of emotionally volatile acting, rather than the more measured and stately performances favored by her current costars.

As the Tyrones' two sons, both Michael Shannon and John Gallagher, Jr. are exceptional. As the elder son, Shannon is mesmerizing, expertly forging all of the character's conflicting impulses into one multifaceted gem of a performance. Shannon's Jimmy is the most self-aware of the bunch, but also the most vindictive, purposefully agitating the rest of the family by continually bringing up their hurtful past. There's a twinkle of joy in Shannon's eyes when he gets a rise out of one of the other characters, and yet his repeated apologies are heartfelt and his own self-loathing always readily apparent. As the younger son Edmund, Gallagher, Jr. nails the character's contradictory desire to be treated as a man and need for the extra attention granted him by virtue of being the family baby. He also makes for the most interesting foil to Lange, the only one who seems to really see her even as she continually lies to herself about his ongoing medical problems.

Director Jonathan Kent makes a few choices that actively undermine his cast, including staging the play so that an unnecessarily large amount of dialogue is delivered upstage. It robs the audience of the chance to see the actors' expressive faces, and occurs enough that it becomes difficult to fully empathize with them (Lange in particular spends a lot of time speaking upstage). Also, while no one has ever accused Long Day's Journey Into Night of being a short play, Kent's decision to provide only one intermission during the play's four hour runtime turns it into an endurance test for even the most devout O'Neill fans. The last of the four acts suffers the most from this decision, with several brilliantly subtle bits of acting competing against the increasing restlessness of the audience, and the heartbreak of Lange's final monologue undercut by the relief of finally getting a break.

Overall, this Journey is admirably executed but rarely excites, making it difficult to recommend but also hard to completely dismiss. O'Neill's play is a masterwork of rare skill, infinitely complex despite its relatively straightforward setup, and something that reveals new facets of meaning on every viewing. It is something that should be experienced by every theatre lover at some point in their lives, but it would be a shame if those unfamiliar with the work mistook the flaws in this production as flaws with the play in general. Audience enjoyment will be directly tied to how interested you are in seeing these specific actors tackle these specific roles, but those who have seen multiple productions of the play probably won't find much to distinguish this revival from the rest.

2016 Tony Nominee Predictions: Part I (Production)

And just like that, Tony season is almost upon us! It's hard to believe that in just a few short days, Patina Miller and Andrew Rannells will wake up at an ungodly hour and announce the names of those competing for Broadway's highest honor. And just like every year, I plan on predicting, discussing, and dissecting every minute of what has evolved into one of the most exciting theatre seasons in years.

The number of positively reviewed productions this year is quite astounding. Very few shows have been outright panned by the critics, making a lot of this year's Tony races unpredictable in the most exciting way possible. Even with Hamilton looking to dominate the new musical awards, there's still plenty of worthwhile competition for the other Best Musical slots, not to mention the acting and play categories. All of this makes predicting the nominees a challenge, but that's never stopped me before!

As always, I will do my best to predict the nominees in the Big 12 Tony categories (my term for the 4 production and 8 acting awards). Thanks to the updated Tony rules, all of these categories have a variable number of slots available, which makes things extra tricky. Given past history, I will assume the Tony committee will err towards a smaller number of nominations, but I will always pick a Wildcard nominee that I think will either force a category expansion or replace one of my official picks.

We'll find out who actually gets nominated on May 3rd, but in the meantime here are my best guesses as to which productions will find themselves competing for Best Musical, Play, and Revival.

UPDATED: Shuffle Along has officially been ruled a new musical, so I have updated my predictions accordingly.

Best Musical

Lin-Manuel Miranda in a little show no one's ever heard of called Hamilton.

Hamilton's place in this category is assured; pretending otherwise is ludicrous, especially after its recent Pulitzer Prize win. The real question is what other shows will make the cut, with some varied and exciting options presenting themselves.

Both On Your Feet and School of Rock managed to snag surprisingly encouraging reviews when they opened this fall, and either production could well be among next week's Best Musical nominees. I personally feel School of Rock is the more respected of the two shows, and a welcome return to form for theatrical titan Andrew Lloyd Webber, but On Your Feet's Outer Critic's Circle nomination (and School of Rock's absence) leave both shows neck and neck.

As for the spring shows, Waitress and American Psycho are the top two contenders, and I expect both to be among this year's nominees. Waitress is virtually assured a slot, thanks to its almost universally positive notices. I also can't see the Tony committee failing to nominate the first Broadway musical with an entirely female creative team in a season where diversity both on and off stage has been such a hot button topic. American Psycho was a more divisive show, but those who enjoyed it seemed to really enjoy it, and thanks to the Tony's weighted nomination system being a few people's top choice counts for more than being many people's third or fourth choice.

And then there's Shuffle Along. The producers of this star-studded musical are pushing to have it compete in the Revival category, presumably to avoid direct competition with Hamilton. This seems like a dubious argument to me, as director George C. Wolfe has written an entirely new libretto that turns the show into a backstage musical about the genesis of its 1921 namesake. In the past, heavily rewritten revivals have at least kept the same plot and characters as the originals, so I expect the nominations committee to deem these changes enough to make Shuffle Along a new musical, putting it in contention for Best Musical. (This is exactly what happened.)

Nominees: American Psycho, Hamilton, Shuffle Along, Waitress
Wildcard: School of Rock

Best Play

The Broadway cast of Stephen Karam's The Humans.

Quite honestly, this is a much less interesting and competitive category than Best Musical. Given the strength of its reviews and the fact that it was named a finalist for the 2016 Pulitzer Prize, I think The Humans is the frontrunner not just for the nomination but for the win. I will also be very surprised if Danai Gurira's much praised Eclipsed fails to score a Best Play nomination. And although the show has been closed for several months at this point, King Charles III made such a strong impression on critics this past fall it seems all-but-guaranteed a nomination.

Which leaves the fourth nomination slot up for grabs, with several viable options available. The Father recently scored Drama League and Outer Critics' nominations for Best Play, and seems to be the most likely contender. That said, Roundabout Theatre Company's adaptation of Therese Raquin had enough supporters that it cannot be ruled out of the competition, and the well reviewed An Act of God is technically part of this season despite opening last May. The fact that it is about to begin a return engagement starring Sean Hayes will remind people that it exists, giving the satiric play a chance at a wildcard spot in this year's race.

Nominees: Eclipsed, The Father, The Humans, King Charles III
Wildcard: Therese Raquin

Best Musical Revival

Two time Tony-nominee Gavin Creel and Tony-winner Jane Krakowski in Roundabout's sterling She Loves Me revival.

Let me preface this by saying that it has been an absolutely *stellar* year for musical revivals. As far as I'm concerned, every production eligible in this category is worthy of at least a Tony nomination, and I'm not sure I've ever felt that way about any category before. Unfortunately, not every show can be nominated, which means at least one deserving production will be overlooked when the Tony committee announces their 3-4 nominees.

Let's start with sure things. John Doyle's minimalist staging of The Color Purple won across the board raves, and in the eyes of many critics redeemed the show from its less well-received premiere (which I personally loved). It is a shoe-in for a nomination, and at this point is probably the frontrunner to win. She Loves Me is also a practically perfect production of a less well-known musical, and I will be shocked/furious if Roundabout's effortlessly charming revival does not receive at least a nomination.

After those two shows, things get tricky. History has shown time and again that currently running productions do better with the Tony committee, which makes a Fiddler on the Roof nomination highly likely. Yet I would say that after the above-named sure things, the most artistically successful and interesting musical revival this season was the Deaf West production of Spring Awakening. Should this category have the traditional four nominees, then those are your two final slots. Should only three shows get nominated, then I honestly don't know which one the Tony voters will favor, and it will result in some justified cries of "snub" either way. Poor Dames at Sea, while highly enjoyable, seems destined to be forgotten.

Nominees: The Color Purple, Fiddler on the Roof, She Loves Me, Spring Awakening
Wildcard: Dames at Sea

Best Play Revival

Saoirse Ronan and the cast of Ivo van Hove's avant garde The Crucible.

This category is particularly stuffed this year, with a whopping 11 eligible productions competing for the 4-5 available slots. Roundabout's first-rate revival of the hilarious Noises Off looks like a sure thing when it comes to getting a nomination, and although their Long Day's Journey Into Night isn't the top tier production I'd hope for, a decent Long Day's Journey is still better than most other play revivals, making it a strong contender. I suspect that avant garde director Ivo van Hove's two rapturously received Arthur Miller revivals (last fall's A View from the Bridge and the currently running The Crucible) will both get nominated, although there is a *slight* possibility that Tony voters only nominate one in favor of spreading the wealth around.

Unlike most categories, I feel like there is a strong possibility of this race expanding beyond the minimum four nominees. Picking which production gets the fifth slot is tricky however, as most of the other play revivals this season have been liked but not loved. Blackbird's difficult subject matter seemed to be off-putting to a large number of critics, even as they all admitted the show was staged and acted wonderfully. Fool for Love was very well liked when it opened last fall, but given the sheer volume of play revivals this season it will likely be overlooked. And I don't think the community's love of James Earl Jones and Cecily Tyson is quite enough to get The Gin Game nominated, as most reviewers agreed the play had not aged well despite the quality of the performances in it. Blackbird remains my official pick, but its slot could really go to anyone (or disappear all together).

Nominees: Blackbird, The Crucible, Long Day's Journey Into Night, Noises Off, A View from the Bridge
Wildcard: Fool for Love


Agree? Disagree? Let me know in the comments, and be sure to check back in a couple of days to see my Best Actor/Actress predictions!